Perceived Loot Imbalance Explained

[JohnCapital]

1st off, no, this isn't a "why your loot sucks" thread. My intention w/ this is to explain a common myth: Why "ubers" seem to get all the good loot.

Before I go into the math, let's start with 2 basic points that almost no one seems to notice:

1. W/ any other game outside of EU, we grab a weapon, even if it's an "expensive" but better quality item, and off we go. We don't consider cost per use because once we buy it, in most games, that isn't an issue. But in EU it is very important.
2. So many of us focus on "eco", that we're actually conditioned to not even consider the opposite: Spending more. Lots more. TONS more.

It is these two combined factors that lead, I believe, to most folks not noticing the simple reason for why the "ubers" seem to global so much. The reason is simple: They simply spend more.

Let's look at the cost of using three "typical" weapon setups.

Sollomate Opalo+A101: decay+ammo = 0.02672/shot x 44 shots/min.
Cost = 1.18 ped/min.

Breer P5a (L)+A104: decay+ammo = 0.12977/shot x 44 shots/min.
Cost = 5.71 ped/min.

DOA Foeripper+Evil: decay+ammo = 0.33766/shot x 59 shots/min.
Cost = 19.92 ped/min.

So, the "uber" weapon spends almost 4 times what the mid-level gun does, and spends more than a full 12-man team of opalo hunters.

Let's see how this adds up over the long run. Pretend each of these hunters are shooting for an hour straight. Of course they stop, heal etc. so pretend they hunt long enough to equal 60 minutes of shooting each.

• Opalo: 1.17568 x 60 = 70.54 ped spent/hour
• P5a: 5.70988 x 60 = 342.59 ped spent/hour
• DOA: 19.92194 x 60 = 1,195.31 ped spent/hour

So, is it any wonder why the DOA user gets so many more globals? Unless you think the opalo hunter should get just as much loot per hour, which would REALLY make it unfair.

And no, we aren't even talking about armor, as some can claim the armor decay difference is offset by the adj/imp/mod fap costs. (besides, issues of evade make the calculations a pain, but weapons cost the same w/ every use.)

What about big (L) guns, or the uber eco guns? Let's find out.

• HL15(L)+A106: 13.2455/min. or 794.73/hour
• Apis(L)+Dante: 12.18311/min. or 730.99/hour
• Mod merc+A204: 16.86546/min. or 1,011.93/hour
• IMK.II+A204: 11.7378/min. or 704.27/hour

So yes, the IMK.II is cheaper/hour, but the mod merc is not. Hopefully you can start to see the differences in cost each of us have when it comes to playing.

This same scale of cost applies to all other main activities ingame.

Mining

• Ziplex Z1 (no amp): 1,000 bombs + decay = 1,015.01
• OF-105+OA-103 (L): 1,000 bombs + decay = 3,020.50
• Ziplex VRX3000(L)+OA-109 (L): 1,000 bombs + decay = 21,050.10

Granted, 1,000 drops using OA-109s is suicide, but you get the idea. Mining costs can vary greatly. and that's not even counting enmatter.

Crafting

• Basic filters: 0.05/click x 10,000 clicks = 500 ped
• Simple IV Conductors: 20.25/click x 10,000 clicks = 202,500 ped
• Prosecutor M45 (L): 78.94/click x 10,000 clicks = 789,400 ped

That's right. Making a Prosecutor M45 (L) costs more than a global per click. That BP costs more in 7 clicks than 10,000 filters. And remember, not every click is a success. So of course it's going to global (if it's clicked)

And we're just talking TT spend, not markup costs to use some of these items. So the actual cost gets even higher.

And remember, the system is designed so that nobody (not even ubers) can make more TT value than they spend.

So the next time you complain because your 730 ped Apis run was a 50% return, be very happy that you lost 365 and weren't using a DOA and losing 600. When you see globals and hofs from the big spenders, before you get mad, do yourself a favor and keep the cost differences in mind.

 

[Kemp]

But still, loot sucks...

 

[Perseverance]

It has been said before but not as good as you said it

Hope that people will actually get it now.

 

[Akoz]

A fine post JC, and I'm not saying I disagree with anything in it, but I'd like to challenge this point anyhow:

And remember, the system is designed so that nobody (not even ubers) can make more TT value than they spend.

Consider this:
In crafting and mining the long term return rate is 95%. When tiering up a UL weapon MA also takes 5%. If it is true that they also take 5% in the long run in average from hunters then extreme eco players could in fact profit TT-wise as well.
I would say the mean dmg/pec is around 4.05(*) for most non-uber weapons. If ubers with high eco weapons (4.4+) are responsible for say 10% of the peds cycled the avg dmg/pec would still be below 4.10. If MA is indeed taking 5% of peds cycled you would then profit TT-wise as well in the long run with any 4.31+ eco weapons. imk2 for instance should in theory give 109%+ back.

I know some will claim hunting returns are way below the 70%s, but I have yet to see any well documented logs proving it. The thing is with such a large share of the peds cycled going to "jackpots" (hofs+) there's too much variance to get good estimates on actual payouts.


* I'm using the old-style max damage divided by pec cost. Feel free to multiply all numbers by 0.75 or whatever factor - but it really makes no difference in the end as it is the relationships between them that matters.

 

[Futurama]

This should be "must read" thread.

Good stuff..

 

[JohnCapital]

But still, loot sucks...

imk2 for instance should in theory give 109%+ back.

And we'll talk about loot in another thread I have planned soon. Still waiting for some more data from some folks.

However, this thread is simply to show/discuss playing cost, not the returns.

 

[Anzak]

Intresting read! will be looking at this for futre references

 

[mastermesh]

True... BUT... your theory here seems to be based on the idea that globals and HOF, and ultimately every loot out there, is tied to the individual avatar's expense in the form of decay, etc. While that may be true, it's also true that if the loot pool is anything like a random number generator, it makes more sense to be economic so that you have a greater number of "spins on the casino wheel" so to speak. Otherwise, n00bs grabbing the biggest gun they can find would be instant winners - which we all know is not the case.

As I've said over and over before - it all depends on if you are "paying to play" or "paying to stay"

 

[Legion]

And remember, the system is designed so that nobody (not even ubers) can make more TT value than they spend.

i guess the italic can make this explained sort of.. However if the system is done this way, what about those that are new players and ubers? In that case they would never get any more globals.. EVER almost.

 

[endermigne]

[...]

Shouldn't this be with the Loot Theories?

Because if so, I'd like you to read this:

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/about-entropiaforum/18272-repeat-after-me.html

 

[TheVoid]

Dude I think I love you

Best post I've seen on the subject


Maybe all these noobs will shut up about the eco hunt and how no one should use this or that weapon because it has sooo much decay


In your face noobs

 

[Cani Ostro]

Very well explained as usual.

Might want to take a loot at my tracker data of last week and explain:

Why did I get while just hunting for two or three hours in the evening two 800+ pedders on Longtooth.

Whereas from Friday to Sunday evening about 800 Longtooth were shot in shorter timeframe, thus spending far more in those three days than in total the week before. There was not a single hof (not even a silly one) in that timeframe.

More peds spend, less returns. Well, I probably hit again a bad weekend, like I did three weeks ago when I spent the same time on CP.

Personally I think you have a solid, good explanation. But the loot distribution is far from considering this. The only reason valid in this algorithm is that ubers kill lot more than other people.

And that is the gambling approach: You have to just kill many to get one good. With the current loot distribution there is no valid approach to profit or not.

Your approach just leads to the assumption "I just have to spend enough" and that is imo a dangerous approach for the feeble minded out there, thinking all they have to do is going big to score big.

Star has gone probably through more peds on the Eomons in one session than that Maki guy in total. However, ATH list tells us wrong, no?

 

[JohnCapital]

Shouldn't this be with the Loot Theories?

Nope. This isn't really about loot theories, it's about avatar spending, which is clearly a general economy issue.

However if the system is done this way, what about those that are new players and ubers? In that case they would never get any more globals.. EVER almost.

A new player with almost zero skills that buys a DOA and amp and heads out shooting will spend the exact same per shot as a 400k+ skill uber. And thus, yes will global almost as much.

However, their results will differ precisely due to that difference in skill.

 

[SnowLeopard]

What about bugs? I think all discussions of loot do not take into account software bugs, and due to those bugs, any tests attempting to prove complex theories put forth are doomed to fail.

If MindArk can let a simple thing such as the Top 10 list in events go unfixed for months, it isn't hard to believe more obscure bugs go unfixed for even longer.

For example, many have complained about distribution of items in loots. The expression when it rains it pours seems to apply in the sense that multiple high-end items tend to drop in one loot. If that is a bug in the loot system, does anyone think MindArk would ever admit to it?

I will never believe there are no bugs affecting returns.
Anyone who argues against the statement "complex software has bugs, period." really doesn't what they are talking about. It's a simple fact just like "the sun is hot" or "water is wet".

Our avatars are defined by a bunch of numbers. Some are known (skills) and surely some are unknown. What if one of the numbers that defines your avatar has become corrupted and is no longer within proper bounds? Think of Dungeons and Dragons and how dice rolls decide the game. What if you're only getting 3d12+4 instead of 4d12+4? Adds up in the long run.
Of course, some people have those corrupted numbers working in their favor.

 

[JohnCapital]

More peds spend, less returns....

Personally I think you have a solid, good explanation. But the loot distribution is far from considering this....

Loot isn't given in steady flow. Loot is dyn... Nah. won't say it.

What about bugs? I think all discussions of loot do not take into account software bugs,

This isn't about loot, it's about decay. Not income but outgo. The other (yet never-discussed) side of the coin.

 

[TheVoid]

Our avatars are defined by a bunch of numbers. Some are known (skills) and surely some are unknown. What if one of the numbers that defines your avatar has become corrupted and is no longer within proper bounds? Think of Dungeons and Dragons and how dice rolls decide the game. What if you're only getting 3d12+4 instead of 4d12+4? Adds up in the long run.
Of course, some people have those corrupted numbers working in their favor.

I feel the same way sometimes. MA has stated that we have ups and downs. that the rate of skill gain has highs and lows. why not the returns?

I have noticed that returns are always better near a Profession level up

I wonder if our returns are dictated like the tiering system, what if we have an array of number that is used on a ped spent base?

 

[Oracle]

I agree with the OP if he is implying that globals, hofs and general loot gained is in some kind of proportion with the decay one puts into the system.

In a way I wish it wasn't like this (if indeed the loot system does work like that) because after a decent hof you know that you're going to have a long grind losing peds before the next one.

If I thought/knew hofs and uber hofs were just random, taking no account of personal decay put into the system, then I'd probably hunt more than I do now (because I don't think I've put enough decay into the system to loot big at the moment).

I'm less sure if decay is linked to looting nice items or not, which you need to try to get in front of course.

 

[SnowLeopard]

This isn't about loot, it's about decay. Not income but outgo. The other (yet never-discussed) side of the coin.

So I'll rephrase by replacing loot with Entropia:
What about bugs? I think all discussions of Entropia do not take into account software bugs,

Scopes and lasers anyone?

 

[JohnCapital]

So I'll rephrase by replacing loot with Entropia:
What about bugs?

Are there bugs in the system? Sure, there are almost certainly the occasional behind the scene bug in the system that can be a detriment, instead of an asset.

However, that doesn't change the cost of using a more expensive weapon compared to a cheaper one, or crafting more expensive items.

The overall results of that difference is a whole other matter.

 

[Immortal]

In a way I wish it wasn't like this (if indeed the loot system does work like that) because after a decent hof you know that you're going to have a long grind losing peds before the next one.

I label this kind of thinking as superstition.

 

[kosmos]

johncapital you screwed up your explication.. i am going to tell you why you forgot one big point...

















[br]Click to enlarge[/br]

you need a lucky rabbits foot to loot like the ubas!

i am joking of course good post hehe

 

[CMS]

Great post man. Puts things a bit into perpesctive for loots.

 

[Oleg]

I agree with the OP if he is implying that globals, hofs and general loot gained is in some kind of proportion with the decay one puts into the system.

In a way I wish it wasn't like this (if indeed the loot system does work like that) because after a decent hof you know that you're going to have a long grind losing peds before the next one.

If I thought/knew hofs and uber hofs were just random, taking no account of personal decay put into the system, then I'd probably hunt more than I do now (because I don't think I've put enough decay into the system to loot big at the moment).

I'm less sure if decay is linked to looting nice items or not, which you need to try to get in front of course.

If the loot system was (is?) purely random, the result would be the same - those who hunt most/biggest would still get the most loot, in general.

I think a flaw in JC's original argument - although I agree with the broad principle - is that it seems to rule out the role of luck completely.

People on EF often seem to forget that it's possible to be both dedicated AND lucky

 

[remontoire]

Sollomate Opalo+A101: decay+ammo = 0.02672/shot x 44 shots/min.
Cost = 1.18 ped/min.

Breer P5a (L)+A104: decay+ammo = 0.12977/shot x 44 shots/min.
Cost = 5.71 ped/min.

DOA Foeripper+Evil: decay+ammo = 0.33766/shot x 59 shots/min.
Cost = 19.92 ped/min.

So, the "uber" weapon spends almost 4 times what the mid-level gun does, and spends more than a full 12-man team of opalo hunters.

This is of course true, but on balance - a given mob and maturity appear to loot about the same amount back per kill, taken over a sufficient amount of kills, regardless of the weapon and thus how much you are spending. So if you spend more on kill, at least initially you simply appear to lose more. Possibly it is paid back with globals / HOFs, but ... I haven't seen a definite study of that - larger amount of kills/minute might have an effect though.

 

[JingyiDai]

Wel I accept it, but known friends, who left the game ,who spend like close to uber and tried those myself. It is really pointless.

It is just pure madness. Better use Opalo and TT gears folks, and stick to it. Cost down do not invest lol


Be safe.

 

[Makitoki]

Very well explained as usual.

Might want to take a loot at my tracker data of last week and explain:

Why did I get while just hunting for two or three hours in the evening two 800+ pedders on Longtooth.

Whereas from Friday to Sunday evening about 800 Longtooth were shot in shorter timeframe, thus spending far more in those three days than in total the week before. There was not a single hof (not even a silly one) in that timeframe.

More peds spend, less returns. Well, I probably hit again a bad weekend, like I did three weeks ago when I spent the same time on CP.

Personally I think you have a solid, good explanation. But the loot distribution is far from considering this. The only reason valid in this algorithm is that ubers kill lot more than other people.

And that is the gambling approach: You have to just kill many to get one good. With the current loot distribution there is no valid approach to profit or not.

Your approach just leads to the assumption "I just have to spend enough" and that is imo a dangerous approach for the feeble minded out there, thinking all they have to do is going big to score big.

Star has gone probably through more peds on the Eomons in one session than that Maki guy in total. However, ATH list tells us wrong, no?

i've cycled 898992.94tt and my tt return is 856250.33tt in the past 12 months and that's counting the ath...i dont think star has cycled more then that in one eomon session. but hey i could be wrong.

 

[kingjehu]

In a way I wish it wasn't like this (if indeed the loot system does work like that) because after a decent hof you know that you're going to have a long grind losing peds before the next one.

I can say with certainty this is not true.

I got a 17.7k feff a month ago (6/27)

Before the big hit I was getting avg of 80% or lower returns.

I was expecting exactly what you said, however...

Since the uber I have not had a single hunting return under 90%.
And several cycles, (including 300 longtooth) OVER 100%.


JEHU

 

[TheVoid]

I can say with certainty this is not true.

I got a 17.7k feff a month ago (6/27)

Before the big hit I was getting avg of 80% or lower returns.

I was expecting exactly what you said, however...

Since the uber I have not had a single hunting return under 90%.
And several cycles, (including 300 longtooth) OVER 100%.


JEHU

how about globals?

you're in a up fase, and no globals is the system nerfing your loot?

 

[remontoire]

Wel I accept it, but known friends, who left the game ,who spend like close to uber and tried those myself. It is really pointless.

It is just pure madness. Better use Opalo and TT gears folks, and stick to it. Cost down do not invest lol


Be safe.

Worse, there are people who spend various amounts with very eco setups and ... receive considerably below 80% back. pretty consistently at good length runs. Which is much more of an imbalance than somebody getting an uber.

Though truth to be told, I don't like the correlation of my hunting returns to how large the top loot is in HOF table.

 

[eoden13]

BRAVO! and well put!