Hey. OP here. This is going to be a long comment.
I'm happy to see all the comments, including some long ones, and on different sides of the issue. I tried not to let my own opinions show too much in the OP, since it was an analysis. So, for what it is worth, I'm more pleased than not with these developments, only assuming that it is actually an overall plan on MA's part rather than just unrelated decisions motivated by blind, shortsighted, greed. Up until a few weeks ago, I was convinced that if MA tried, they could not have found something more destructive to the game than the ep bp/nanocube change, especially IVuL. It would kill mark up, cripple the mining profession, stagnate the entire economy, and since MA does not make money directly from the sale of nanocubes but rather from decay, it would not even help revenue very much. They had to see that. So, why do it?
After thinking about it, I decided they were trying to isolate the big gamblers from the rest of the economy without driving them out of the game. They have been trying to even the economy out for awhile now...hunting in 2012, no more ATFs from young argos, and mining in 2013, no more unamped towers for first-day players. Normalizing loot returns was one key to making the economy more predictable (boring to some), and another was trying to eliminate wild fluctuations in mark up. Some people like the idea, some do not. I am encouraged that MA seems to be addressing two of what I consider to be the the three most important things they need right now...the economy, and new player recruitment and retention...clear eyed, long term, greed, trying to build a healthy company. I hope, though I am not optimistic, that they will pay as much attention to what I think is the third vital issue, the social aspects of the game. Then there are second tier issues, not as important as those core issues, but very important nevertheless, like the land area owners, space, skill progression, and some others.
In general, you are right. There are many nuances, but the overall picture
is as you described.
Of course you are correct, it is a very nuanced game, really...eco, shared loot, events, pets, compets, buffs, the webshop, SIB, bound items, empty shops, player owned housing, CLDs, PvP, PvP4, banks, universal ammo...the list goes on and on. But what I hope is that an accurate understanding of MA's overall plan will help players put those nuances into their proper place. Like all the recent skill buffs...where is that coming from? I think it might be an attempt to appease some players who are running up against the skills slowdown. Skill progression will never be linear again, but isn't a really high reload buff almost as good as unlocking commando...or even better really? Won't these buffs, and the coming changes to unlimited armor, and the new faps in the game, let players hunt the same higher mobs that increased skills would? So instead of working towards having the same skills Star does, the new goal is to hunt the same mobs he does. Why do I think this is what is happening here? Because if the analysis is correct, then there seems to be a pattern of MA trying to address player issues in indirect ways without breaking the mechanics. Big gamble-crafting affecting mark up too much? Give those players an incentive to take themselves apart from the rest of the economy. Players skilling too slowly past a certain point? Well, what are skills for? Give them other ways to get there.
Of course, the rings could have dropped from event mobs or something. Lockboxes...pure greed. Unless I'm missing a nuance.
My opinion. Remove nano cubes and change explosive bps to use shrapnel
instead
As you and others believe, this would reconnect the ep crafters to the mainstream economy, which I believe is what MA does not want. It is like lootable PvP space, it fulfills a function that MA thinks is vital, so I do not think either will change soon.
It is in danger of making EU as bland and boring as many other MMO's and tbh I am worried for the health of the game, and whether personally it will offer enough challenge and interest to sustain me.
To be fair, the other games started it. Most MMOs were subscription based in 2009 when Turbine switched DDO to free to play, making most of their money from webshop purchases, then followed with LOTRO a year later. The industry as a whole shifted (loosely) towards the EU model.
Yes I know I brought up User Bound items again.
Bound items are too large a subject to cover here, but in general I think this is another attempt by MA to allow some more powerful items into the game without allowing them into the larger economy, like the new refurbished S.I. H.E.A.R.T. I was surprised that the chip from Mission Galactica was not bound...or am I wrong?
How much fun is "mining for cobalt like it's ruga"? How much fun is looting shrapnel all day? How much fun is crafting ONLY amps, finders and explosive IV? How much fun is gambling for a goddamn melchi tower?!?! Not to mention the gameplay of PE/EU hasn't changed since its inception. It was the whole concept of "make your fortune", the excitement of a dynamic and ever-shifting economy that attracted the initial waves of new players. What's attracting them now? Compets? All this stability is terribly boring. In the long run my forecast is if the economy continues this flattening trend we will lose more players than we gain.
This used to be a community-driven economy, now it seems to be driven by gambling and whatever ridiculous new changes Mindark decides to implement for the sake of "stability". I'm not against stability, but this is just plain damn boring. Browsing the auction is depressing. Maybe it's just me.
Some people find it boring, but other people do find it fun, and it is the latter group that I think MA is marketing the game to now, players instead of gamblers. Put another way, I don't think they are trying to get people who want to be miners, I think they are trying to get people who want to
play miners in a science fiction MMO, and they are adjusting the economy so that those people can play a reasonable amount of time before they go broke, and feel they got good entertainment value for money. While, again, allowing miners already in the game to continue mining, with adjustments.
What "many resources" have gone up in markup? Despite Gazz, Typo, and Magerian mist considering MA tampered with the distributions again and moved virtually all of the typo and gazz to Arkadia... Currently finding Gazz is similar to finding Kanerium. Roughly 5-8% of claims based on where you mine. Typo is no different... it used to be at a 28% distribution in shinook, now it's hovering around 9-10%. That is the reason markups went up.
Have you even tried to mine and sell things on the auction? People just are not buying resource, and those who do are traders with orders out who just end up relisting it and saturating the market even further. We need consumption by crafters, and it is extremely unfair and destructive that they can participate in their profession without any reliance on hunters and miners.
I won't try to argue mining with a miner. I will say that I think MA wants ores and enmats to have mark up, they just don't want too much volatility. There are crafters who don't like to gamble. There must be. If mark ups stay low across the board MA will probably rebalance, which will be easier without the big gamblers affecting things.
Take shrapnel; once converted you're forced to use it as it cannot be tt'd. The choice to hunt with it or not has already been taken. In other words you've spent your hunting ammo, before you even take a shot.
Don't convert it to UA.
I think MA have moved back to an unlimited environment, first it's L, then a few unlimited items to max income, then a complete downpour of the unlimited to kill value already earned.
It's possible, but I'm not sure what it would accomplish in this model, though. But as for the the rings specifically, if I am right, they would have to be widely available to counter the skill slowdown.
So back to the main point. Explo crafting is going nowhere, it's pure income from heavy weight gamblers, especially those that love the 20 ped a click variety. It excludes the whole economy. Perfect money maker.
MA was making revenue from the crafting anyway. If you assume an average of 20% mark up on mats that is now being spent on nanocubes instead, that would be a 20% increase in decay from these players. I don't think it could be much more than that, and I'm not sure MA would consider that worth cratering the entire mining profession. But I could be wrong.
Imagine being able to go to the TT and buy everything you need to go hunt Prots
Or going to the TT to buy (L) amps and 500m+ finders straight from the tt...
But crafters need to buy materials constantly. Hunters only occasionally need to buy armor, or even L guns and amps. But they do need to continually buy ammo...unless they loot enough of it. Yes, the big miners are constantly buying amps, but still not at the rate big crafters buy mats.
More on the topic of the opening poster: The 3 tier economy... Crone doesn't see it. New players are very much involved in the mainstream. They interact with mentors, traders, auction and using exploits. Some of them are very inventive to make a couple bucks to support their hunting with very little effort. The high level players definately interact with the mainstream. Same way even auction, traders, being mentors and using exploits. The influence from both groups on the market is immense. Without newbies the tickets of scheduled warp flights would explode because of the price of sweat (welding wire), the absence of high end crafters would still influence the mining amplifier, guns and tools prices and the absence of the mainsstream would decrease everyone's profit.
No, the new players aren't. They are part of the economy, of course, but they are very much out of the mainstream. Interacting with mentors is not being part of the mainstream economy, even if most new players had mentors. New players mostly hunt punies, which only drop shrapnel, ammo, Calypso Bone Samples, and occasionally puny weapons and B101s. They don't
have anything to sell to traders except Calypso Bone Samples, fruit, and sweat. If they buy something from the auction, it is almost certainly the wrong thing to do...they have better options at this point. They are being deliberately
protected from the economy at this early stage of their game life, protected within practical limits from players who would farm them for mentor gifts or sell them a Jester D1 or pay them 1 pec for combat tokens and then tell them it is part of the game and they should have done their homework. And hopefully they are gradually learning about the economy and how to take part in it properly.
They do provide sweat. They are largely isolated, not totally isolated. The exploits, I don't know what you mean.
High level explosive projectile crafters, as I said,
as crafters have
no impact on the mainstream economy. They craft with TT nanocubes and, well, alright, they produce and sell metal residue. They have as much impact as newbies who sell sweat. As
players they may buy things, sell things, and so on, but
as crafters they have no effect on the mainstream economy. High gambling hunters have more, and high gambling miners have the most, but still much less than before largely because of changes in the loot structure.
I was a new player for a very long time and small pedcycle bankrolls need the auction house 2
Other people have floated the idea of a newbie auction house for small transactions. I don't know how much trouble it would be to code, but I think it is a good idea.
Like I said, lots of good comments. I'm going to respond to Whiteknut separately.