i wouldnt even be so sure that the first payment will be big enough to offset the losses on the deed price. especially when seeing how many "tournament" prices MA has given away to compet players and that those will be most likely paid out of the shareholders pocket. my educated guess would be 5 to 10 pec first payment tops and then about 1 pec every 1 to 3 months
It's ok pulling a number out of thin air, although you do really need 'some' justification for why you consider it to be that value.
Let's assume that the first payment covers one year 365 days (it's longer I believe, although I'm not digging out dates right now).
Let's also assume the first dividend is 10 pec (the higher end of your estimate).
It takes about $668 of 100% revenue (not deposits) to generate 1 pec per deed at 30%
So 10 pec = 10 x $668 = $6680 revenue at 100% (total revenue).
$6680 / 365 days = $18.30 100% revenue average per day.
One trinket box from the shop is 200 diamonds.
If you bought 50 diamonds that would cost you 10 ped or $1
So you need $4 of revenue just to buy one box. Yet tons of those have been sold.
So for trinkets alone MA only needs to sell less than 5 a day to hit that $18 a day revenue number.
That's excluding the whole list of other things to spend diamonds on.
(edit) I personally bought a lot of shield's in the early days to stop raids and enable me to upgrade my village. A mountain of diamonds would have been spent on village protection.
Now revenue is quite interesting because MA could include gold coin spend to some degree in the revenue calcs as well. For things like selecting fights in raids, pet upgrades, building upgrades, gym etc. There's a conversion from gold to diamonds in Compet too.
On the matter of prizes that is irrelevant because that is a "cost".
It's like you saying your salary is $2000 a month (the revenue)
But your train fares are $500 a month (the cost and in this instance the "prizes").
Your salary hasn't changed because of your train fares (prizes), its still $2000.
I think the revenue number will actually shock a few people, because it not hard to sum up significant revenue from the game.
I wouldn't be surprised at 10 - 20 PED (not pec) a deed for the first payout. That's me being quite conservative.
Although it all depends how MA calculate the number....hahaha.
I actually haven't done some big estimates on it yet, I'd rather wait to see what MA pays then try and back fill how they came to that decision (just for fun).
Rick