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Confidence is King

RickEngland

RickEngland

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Joined
Nov 14, 2011
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4,600
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Essex England UK
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Jurai Blood
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Rickard Rick England
Is the extended Shared loot event now having an adverse effect on normal hunting returns?

Well I just deleted a ton of text, because other than speculation no one truly knows that answer. So maybe thoughts should focus on another angle such as:

If on a down curve, how do you force the system to turn you back on?

Deposit: Tried it with another $100, didn’t work (but it should after deposits, and used to some years back).

Offload all stackables: This is based on another mini theory I have on maximum permitted stackables the system will let you retain at anytime. I don’t want to sell some robots parts I looted, as got a nice display going in the apartment, but maybe I should try it, dump the lot and test run a mob.

TT Dumping: Yeah I dumped tons of stuff from shared loot to tt. This fear is rife in game, as on market values data I see many sales going through at 98-99% tt value in auction (in other words sell at loss as not to tt). I’m not sure I’m 100% convinced with this ‘fear’, but if true the only way through this issue, is to try and burn enough ped to somehow correct the imbalance. Not a nice place to be.

Now some time ago there was speculation that there was a direct correlation between item drops in solo loot, and personal auction sales. I somewhat believe that.
Then there’s the other theory that anything loaded to auction is not counted as loot until its sold. Probably explains why so much over priced stuff on auction at times.
But this is a interesting one, ever been hunting and doing ok, then mid hunt you have some big sales go through in auction...what happens to your loot..for me it would appear to pull back drastically to compensate for the sale at auction.

Mobs own loot pool: I would say out of all the theories this is the most believed one of the lot. It would make sense, because otherwise 30K pumped into the hydra building a ATH, would drop on a trox instead or even a snable. So shared loot is one of the clearest examples or indicators that loot sits in a pool of a particular mob.

Ok against this argument is: The avatars collectively hunting on shared have built enough loot for it to drop all at the same time.....lol...the mind games!!!!!

For me personally Confidence is king in game. You get loot maybe hofs, you give it back over a short period of time...fair enough with that. What I don’t like is the server not recognising when you the player says ok I want to keep what I have now, so I will pay you (deposit), and the system still says “no” I’m still on drain down.

What am I looking for here? I really don’t know. Maybe wait till shared is finished before pulling the guns out on solo?

Maybe writing this post has given me a few possible solutions to try and switch the loot back on after deposit. I’ll dump all my collections again...grrr.

What is clear I think...is when confidence takes a knock you don’t spend...and want too, so stuck in this limbo situation. Do I post this or don’t I? Oh sod it, it’s good to get into someone’s head to see what they’re thinking.

Rick.
 
When your ava is on a down period, one depo will not change anything, only maybe a few more hours of play. In fact the year that I had depo more was also the year that I go worst results (a pesky one year and half of bad loot period) what led me to stop with depo and made me change all my play style. The cow got death dear MA no more money from here... and after 5 months I got my first 5 digit ever! :) Coincidence or not I don't know but if one plan is not work try another. Show them who commands your wallet.

Good luck!




edit: even when you just trading on auction I guess all the fees payed by you in someway have something positive for your ava. Play smart and with patience and wait for the system to recognize your change.
 
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One thing i've nothest is that "shared loot" loot affected somehow my normal loot returns. I was in shared loot events on several ubber loots (2 ath) and after that my returns suck big time...
 
Fanan said:
dear MA no more money from here... and after 5 months I got my first 5 digit ever! :) Coincidence or not I don't know but if one plan is not work try another. Show them who commands your wallet.
.
Click to expand...

I've got enough deeds to quite happily live of that. The extra deposits, were simply a test to see how the server would respond. I agree the system could very well chase you, if you become stubborn enough. It could be a very long waiting game. Gratz after 5 months with your 5 digit uber.


Garco said:
One thing i've nothest is that "shared loot" loot affected somehow my normal loot returns. I was in shared loot events on several ubber loots (2 ath) and after that my returns suck big time...
Click to expand...

My biggest concern on shared is working towards a lifetime personal ATH or uber loot, and it drops on shared. Scary stuff. I guess the system thinks you are up more than you should've have been (on personal loot), so wants it back. The worry is if it goes beyond that, and doesn't know when to stop with personal drain down. I hope the maths are right.

GL; thanks for replying.
 
I find it interesting how persons view bad returns as something they have done when in fact the poor returns are wide spread affecting anyone who is participating.Its been that way forever so what you do is STOP put everything down and quietly walk away untill you feel its safe to return.
 
I'm beginning to believe that there are multiple factors at work. Some factors (e.g. recent hofs) limit future returns. Other factors (e.g. deposits) increase future returns.

What I've found so far:
1. It seems that the factors that limit returns are stronger than those than increase them. Just about the worst thing you can do is chase a balancing hit after a series of bad runs.
2. The relationship of the different factors to each other is so complex that trying to predict a big multiplier is futile.
 
RickEngland said:
Deposit: Tried it with another $100, didn’t work (but it should after deposits, and used to some years back).
Click to expand...

I don't believe that to have ever been the case. People may have seen a pattern where there is none, but I certainly never noticed any correlation.
I've only been playing since 2007 though.
 
When loot is down simply team hunt with others to spread some of your bad luck across the board making it less difficult on your own PED card......


P.S.... Wanna team some mobs?

Menace
 
I am not so much bothered by loot distributions, usually get a global or two when doing hunts. Main issue with current event is the mystery about how many prizes there will be. Players will grind like crazy fuckers if a prize is likely available. We all went hard hoping to get an Exceptional Contraction Unit.. Maybe 2-3 dropped early on and now we have no idea how many should drop, seems the number of players participating in the Hydras at Solfias has dropped off. MA really should identify how many of each item will drop.
 
Garco said:
One thing i've nothest is that "shared loot" loot affected somehow my normal loot returns. I was in shared loot events on several ubber loots (2 ath) and after that my returns suck big time...
Click to expand...

Same thing here.
I was also lucky to catch ATH on hydra and after that my returns just suck.
 
You have a fine talent for missing the point. Well done.
 
KijkkiJikki said:
You have a fine talent for missing the point. Well done.
Click to expand...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval

Aren't we talking about statistical confidence? My bad then :)

My point is, blabbing about "theories" and "feelings" and "superstitions" without actual cold-hard mathematical unsentimental data is indeed a waste of time and human potential. But once you model your hypothesis and obtain matching models through analysis, there is no more need for "belief", "trust" or "confidence" in how something works and if your actions are good or not.

I know it's hard to learn and understand how the game works behind the scenes and determine if you are making mistakes or not, but trying to offer consolation through "feelings" sharing is not an alternative.
 
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mrproper said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval

Aren't we talking about statistical confidence? My bad then :)

My point is, blabbing about "theories" and "feelings" and "superstitions" without actual cold-hard mathematical unsentimental data is indeed a waste of time and human potential. But once you model your hypothesis and obtain matching models through analysis, there is no more need for "belief", "trust" or "confidence" in how something works and if your actions are good or not.

I know it's hard to learn and understand how the game works behind the scenes and determine if you are making mistakes or not, but trying to offer consolation through "feelings" sharing is not an alternative.
Click to expand...

Whereas my links were about psychology and the human tendancy to perceive patterns whether or not they exist.

Regards,
KikkiJikki
 
Hi,

RNG's are beasts, even if they are just semi-RNG's. I played a lot a lot with those in the past, and no matter how many you'd concatenate, they'd produce "patterns".

I seeded them from any available sources, added some more RNG's, they still produced "patterns".

Even with true, expensive hardware RNG's the "patterns" didn't vanish. (Yes, at a time I had ~20K USD worth of various hardware RNG's at hand).

Just, I never got statistical significant "patterns" even at the low level of 3 concatenated semi-RNG's - the "patterns" looked like such, it was obvious that there'd be kind of a sine curve or wave, but it was impossible to predict. And this is what makes a certain set of well defined RNG's really random.

We have tons of theories here about loot waves, spiral ore locations, relations of spent money to return and whatever. What lacks is a clear prove that would be able to certainly, reproducible forecast the return of our next hunting/ mining/ crafting session.

As long as such doesn't exist there's no reason to propose any regularity in our loots. What we are experiencing is the result of a series of real/ semi-RNG's, that's the only valuable explanation.

For sure, we'd love to recognize a certain "pattern", this is our nature, this is what humans love to do, but if we're honest, nobody ever yet has found such. Sure, would anybody might found such, he/ she/ it would stay quiet about it - but MA would notice the drain and would have taken measures.

Check this: MA cannot give out more money than is available. No matter if you're at your spiral ore field, no matter how much money you spent whenever, no matter if you deposited recently - there's a certain amount of money to be distributed. This money is available, and to get it you're playing kind of a lotto - beat the RNG. With a possible outcome determined by your stake.

Any other distribution but a sheer RNG based one would cause a lot of other troubles, not at least the question if MA wouldn't prefer certain avatars. So we all play the RNG's, with different stakes and in different areas. But still we all are playing a carefully customized sets of RNG's, after all.

Rebut me, plz.

And have a good time!
 
Xandra said:
As long as such doesn't exist there's no reason to propose any regularity in our loots.
...
MA cannot give out more money than is available.
Click to expand...

You have to admit, the exact reason you gave fits in the category of reasons to propose regulation loots.

Also lots of experiments done by people over the years and posted on this forum.

Let me just propose this to you, and you can take ANY public log with equal sessions and run the hypothesis to check: statistically higher session returns are more likely to be positioned after significant downtrends instead of an equally possible significant uptrend.
 
A for the thread, unless you go on beacon missions, your loot behaves consistently no matter if you are teamed, solo or shared, what should be yours will be yours, sooner or later.
 
Xandra said:
Check this: MA cannot give out more money than is available. No matter if you're at your spiral ore field, no matter how much money you spent whenever, no matter if you deposited recently - there's a certain amount of money to be distributed. This money is available, and to get it you're playing kind of a lotto - beat the RNG. With a possible outcome determined by your stake.

Rebut me, plz.

And have a good time!
Click to expand...

Yes I've often wondered if the loot pool drains and then no matter how much you pump in you are doomed to big loss. Although I do believe you are added to an "owed" pool for next log in.

Take yesterday (Sunday) I deposited $60 late afteroon, and was hoping for instant loot-turn-on after my other peds were drained. Needless to say I logged off swearing a few times as the servers were still hungry.

In the last 4-6 months I totally changed my play style, no more baby argo trying to play eco, heck I hardly do trox anymore. Play to your skill and level, that is what you trained to...so do it. What is the point of entertainment otherwise? This comes with its problems as $60 is no budget at all for such activity, you need instant good loot, so you get a decent run.

The problem is that the game has been nerfed so much that the only way to hunt anything decent is to buy a decent weapon say $20 and say $25 ammo. So you are talking $50 - $60 for 1 hour play...then cross fingers and hope for the best.

Now; Deposits gone in few hours has happen may times in the past, and that is what makes people say FU I'm out of here.

The solution to a highly nerfed game, is there needs to be an instant loot trigger after a deposit. Becasue you only get 1 or 2 chances of return...not 5 or 6 chances.

I had a great run for a few weeks from $100 depo and all divs on deeds, I gave it back had a good time...thank you.

....but new deposits mean new loot and fast.

I have 61 deeds I don't need to deposit bonus cash to MA. But I try to support the game.

Damn empty loot pools...mmmm.

Now I have relatives that work in the gaming industry (coin machines etc), when chatting at parties they don't talk about their player base, they talk about the lastest machines they just installed and how much more income they got from their punters.

I try hard NOT to put MA on the same viewpoint, becasue they have a game they developed, and it is a "game", it is not a fruit machine. The day I start to feel it is a fruit machine is the day I call it in.

Rick

ps: JC (mod)...great post, I read your rant, I liked it, I think you deserved a hero's cheer not a ban. couldn't respond as post was closed.

lets hope that owed loot is sitting there.
 
Xandra said:
Hi,


Check this: MA cannot give out more money than is available. No matter if you're at your spiral ore field, no matter how much money you spent whenever, no matter if you deposited recently - there's a certain amount of money to be distributed. This money is available, and to get it you're playing kind of a lotto - beat the RNG. With a possible outcome determined by your stake.


Rebut me, plz.

And have a good time!
Click to expand...

Isn't this a theory as well? Do we know for sure they can't give out more? Maybe they have some "overflow" account or something that they can give out whatever the "dynamic" loot parameters are for an indefinite time.
I don't believe that to be true however. An example of an ATH... sure that is huge loot, but if it equals $10k USD, that's not a huge sum that a company couldn't cover for some time in their budget. Somehow their system they set up for loot does not allow for 100 ATHs in one day for example.
It does seem like the lotto, it can build and build until someone gets the big one, then resets, with always having a large base amount to pull from. In this game, it would make it so we would never really be sure if it has reset or the large base has been pulled from yet.
Who knows? LOL :laugh::laugh::wise::wise::wise:
 
DavinFelth said:
Isn't this a theory as well? Do we know for sure they can't give out more? Maybe they have some "overflow" account or something that they can give out whatever the "dynamic" loot parameters are for an indefinite time.
I don't believe that to be true however.
Click to expand...

The 90% model shows that even if loot is random the chances of higher loots is present when you are required to get to 90%. Thus on average, over the whole playerbase, MA should have on average 10% more PED than everything that has been spent since they last "drained" the loot pool. So even if they pay out more than the intended average, there is a high chance they still have plenty of ped to cover payouts.
 
Garco said:
One thing i've nothest is that "shared loot" loot affected somehow my normal loot returns. I was in shared loot events on several ubber loots (2 ath) and after that my returns suck big time...
Click to expand...

Was on 67k charbidys and 32k chari or hydra - looted 300 ped and 600 ped - after those 2 on 7k spent mining i had 2k back....i fell like both uber were asigned to my tt return....
Over 11k drops mostly lvl 8 and best hit is 300 ped...
D3 here i come
 
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