The Good And The Bad (And the Ugly but who cares)

[jinS]

I'm a crafter.
I'm a BAD crafter.

Today, or one day (whatever), I had a discussion, with another crafter, who did the impossible. He got x150+ multiplier full condition.

So, by any chance, I just got to craft beside him, and I took my courage and PM'ed him. OMG WTF I couldn't know it would be a so huge surprise.

The guy was so nice. And for sure he was a GOOD crafter.
Apparently, he does like "around 500" clicks a day.
Thats what? 15k clicks a month or so.

He told me he's getting a x150-200 every month or so. And more (like 100k ped from time to time _ years..._)

Ok Ok, so I need to digest the information and compare it to my own stats : I do like 5 times more clicks. And for years, I have never seen a multiplier bigger than x80 in full condition. Let's not even talk one per month, I have never seen such a multiplier for years, maybe 100k's of clicks.
-> So I took it in my face. I'm OK with it, it's Entropia.
-> But still, I couldn't save me from THE question : WHY?

To be honest, it wasn't a huge surprise. For years, I was wondering how could guys hit 30k, 50k, 80k and more with explosive projectiles 4?
How is it possible, they can't craft full condition, the same way I'm crafting and get so poor returns. Just by crafting 5PED/click BP's I need to spend $1k+ a month.
I knew for a long time crafting explo 4 was a huge advantage. I could not prove it. But it seemed clear to my mind.
And still I could not afford it

But now, I have an honest witness who delivered just what I needed.

There are still 2 possibilities :
1) EXPLOSIVE 4 bp is cheated. It is part of a lootpool that, we, other crafters, can't access.
2) There is a personal "Multiplier Lootpool" with a max multiplier cap.

If 2) is correct, then we could assume the frequency of multipliers is balanced. But I'm sorry, a x200 multi every 15k clicks is just far more that what I'm currently doing (and I can't believe the guy does not get x10, x20 and other common multipliers).

Or am I missing something? Maybe it is the popularity of the BP that makes the multiplier cap. I've seen nice multis on Lysterium Powder Container (x100 + and maybe more can't remember).
And I'm 100% sure it's not because many players are crafting something, that, with the total amount, makes it more common to give high multis (which would be a logical thought) because some players have been getting very high multis multiple times, and that is odd.

That makes me think : why, we mid-tier crafters, can't get the big hit? (5 PED/ click would be 25k ped for a x500 for example) why can't we? how are we supposed to survive?

What are your thoughts?

 

[San]

Ask the same crafter what his TT returns are over the month, and over the year. And any markup realized from it. Compare the numbers with yours. You could have different returns under more moderate risk-reward relationship. Measure your success by long-term results, not by the golden shower excitement.

 

[jinS]

Ask the same crafter what his TT returns are over the month, and over the year. And any markup realized from it. Compare the numbers with yours. You could have different returns under more moderate risk-reward relationship. Measure your success by long-term results, not by the golden shower excitement.

I was expecting this.
But it's not a talk about profit, markup, or long term boring quantity crafting.

The main question is : why explo 4 and higher tt input BP's can hit x150+ multipliers on full condition (GAMBLER CRAFTING) while other BP's are likely not giving that kind of multipliers?

And be sure, that with a x200 multiplier in 15k clicks, the result is very VERY VERYYYY better than when you don't get this multiplier (and don't have any chance to get it) because as I said, x10 x20 are common multipliers that make you sustain, bigger ones make you win (for a time, x50 you can last a day or 2, if you do only 500 clicks a day you can craft 1 week with a x50... with a x200 you craft for an entire month).
got it?

 

[San]

got it?

If you got the numbers to prove it. All previous attempts I'm aware of didn't. The multipliers are deceptive, they can pull you in positive territory for a while but what counts is whether this compensates for everything. Of course, you can always choose a time period to show anything you want on historical results. Been there, done that, years of technical analysis on stocks and options.

If your question is only about the chances of high multipliers and their dependency on what blueprint is used, then this is a different point to answer and I misunderstood it.

 

[jinS]

If your question is only about the chances of high multipliers and their dependency on what blueprint is used, then this is a different point to answer and I misunderstood it.

Absolutely. This is the point.

And I get it about the "compensation" and of course it is not as simple as "get a high multi and you win the game".

But when you are crafting in condition, it is all about multipliers. There is no way you can compensate your losses with good sessions with so many successes that you will get x2 or x3 TT. If you have no chance to get the high multipliers yes it is very hard to sustain. And My guess is that EP 4 BP have an advantage that is insane IMHO. (because it is not like the frequency of multis is reduced to provide the higher ones, you just have to craft standard BP's and then look at the EP 4 crafters to compare and get hit by the difference in treatment).

Of course the way to go is and has always been quantity crafting for MU output optimization with only a few clicks a week. But it was never the point

 

[San]

In theory and if there aren't other algorithms built in than changing the spread between upper and lower bounds, the same should apply to crafting on condition, only that it takes much longer to produce a statistically relevant picture. Possibly more time and money than an avatar dependent on the resources of a single human could deliver, if there are exponential functions in the spreader. To prove anything you'd have to do the same thing with different blueprints, i.e. crafting components or attachments on condition and with the regularity and as many attempts as EP gamblers would. It was actually the state of the game before EP blueprints got introduced, but even if you could dig up relevant results from that time, chances are some mechanics also changed. Is it worth the risk to answer this specific question? It was never officially stated but there is a degree of consensus supposing EP crafting was created specifically to capture and segregate the faction that is only interested in the game's gambling aspect. If future regulations force changes, this might come in handy (for the company's situation, that is).

 

[Msturlese]

suggestive narration... like Sergio Leone movie....
let's strip off the conspiration theory, the emotional narrative, the deception of global, and whet remains is
1. you dont know his TOTAL RETURN (TT+MU GAINED)-(TT+MU ON NANO) and limit the conversation to side topics
2. you are risking FOMO and think there must be THAT special item that make THEM gain while I cant gain

Take a deep breath and look at statistics
return are 98% on average on TT for the LONGEST run
an EP4 clicker cycles 20*900 = 18.000 ped per hour, he statistically looses 360 ped TT
being this a statistical return Entropia needs 5000 to 10000 click to stabilize, it is not student T game
so you will start to loose statistically 7200 ped per day (and manufacture an insane amount of skills)
that is on QUANTITY
on condition you rise the stakes to about 10x so you can loose 20% constant
as you get a multiplier it can be severely deceptive.

ask him a simple question
are you floating or are you topping up ped?
and see? i dont ask "are you withdrawing your insane gain to feed your copter some more fuel"

ARE YOU FLOATING?
if he say "yes" he probably manages to sell nicely some EP, all residue and drops several emeralds.
just MU can save you
dont trust "ped printer weapons" and "large multipliers"..... the cake is a lie

 

[jinS]

....

So you too did not get it.
It's not a complaining topic. Yes I added narrative elements to make the topic enjoyable to read (OK yes I'm a very bad writer), with a dramatical example to share my point.

The fact is that we are not talking about TT RETURN. In my example, the dude clicks 500 times per day.

This is a RIDICULOUS amount and still, he manages to consistantly get VERY HIGH multipliers (more than x60-70 is VERY VERY VERY VERY HIGH in the current state of the game).

Now, how to explain such a thing?

I also found (with no evidence of it) that the less you play, the higher the multipliers you get.

Could it be the answer, or is it bound to EP 4? or a mix of these 2 things...

---------------------
I compared to my situation because it is obvious maths :

the "dude" : 15k clicks a month and regular x200 multipliers.

me : 2k to 10k clicks a day (multi BPS from EP I to 40 PED/click Limited BP's) for years and NEVER seen more than a x80.

The only difference : I never crafted EP 4. (and ofc a lot more clicks)


---------------------
I know it's a complicated question that noone can really answer. The point of the topic is maybe share thoughts and experiences.
For example : level 2 light (I crafted it a lot and I'm a fool I know it has high MU input) is a very popular blueprint, with good value for high QR and is also crafted a lot.
How can you explain the lack of 10k HOFS? (thats only x200 multi it should happen sometimes, maybe not as often as EP 4 30k+ HOFS but still... and we can't even know if the HOF was not from a limited blueprint which gives condition successes of about 120 PED (so that would be only a x80))

 

[Msturlese]

i apologize but me and San already answered to your question, maybe there is a language barrier
i dont care at all of the TT return
i am trying to explain that multiplier are not meaningful.
multiplier generates when your deviation from the expected return are too high and you get a REBALANCING
henche the question

"OKOK he get bigger hof than you, is he over cost or under cost return?" i expect he is 98% like i am

....he just enjoy more dopamine, both in drawdown and in rebalancing, this is the "gambler attitude"
one gets satisfied for the thrill....

MAGNITUDO of global is NOT meaningful, important is the accumulated TOTAL return vs. accumulated TOTAL cost
game controls TT (you can very barely improve the randomizer with some better statistics) and YOU control the markup part of the game.

as a side note
you craft different BP , he craft same BP, all is more stable for him, because "TTseed" of each event is the same so if a large multi happens in the "cheap" bp your ttloss on "costly clicks" will be non-balanced.

you say that you loose 1k usd per month crafting if i understood correctly. i click enhancer on quantity and can sell the result for a MU that cover my click cost. consider to change BPs.....

 

[San]

Okay. What would be the math for such an experiment?

EP4, 20 ped tt a click, times 500 clicks a day, times 30 days = 300,000 ped tt cycled per month. Plus (now) markup on nanocubes.

Using the blueprints database at http://www.entropiawiki.com/Chart.aspx?chart=Blueprint
set the following filters:
- Name != (L) -- this filters out both limited blueprints and limited items
- Cost > 19 -- to see only blueprints with a stake similar to EP4
Then sort the column 'Cost/%' ascending, which lets us choose those with the lowest markup in the materials used. Markup data in the database may be patchy or outdated, check with current market stats but it should suffice for getting some suggestions.

How many months of doing this are required to prove a point on condition crafting, I dare not presume. Some hunters and miners can cycle more per period, but they have different goals.

 

[SoberPhil]

The main question is : why explo 4 and higher tt input BP's can hit x150+ multipliers on full condition (GAMBLER CRAFTING) while other BP's are likely not giving that kind of multipliers?

I think that this might have to do with higher TT loss on more expensive BPs, because returns on a small 500 click run like you sad can vary wildly, you can get like 90%, 85% or even 80% on several runs, and then the system will pay you back with hefty loots so your long term returns are in par with what's intended. And what I've also noticed is that there's two types of payback loots: shor term and long term, with the latter generating higher multipliers and higher loots - this one happens rarely tho, like once per year os something like that. But that's just a theory, I don't click EP4.

 

[jinS]

I think that this might have to do with higher TT loss on more expensive BPs, because returns on a small 500 click run like you sad can vary wildly, you can get like 90%, 85% or even 80% on several runs, and then the system will pay you back with hefty loots so your long term returns are in par with what's intended. And what I've also noticed is that there's two types of payback loots: shor term and long term, with the latter generating higher multipliers and higher loots - this one happens rarely tho, like once per year os something like that. But that's just a theory, I don't click EP4.

Yeah! now you got it. Thanks!

But no. I do not agree with your point.

The fact a higher cost BP can lose more is not relevant as a multiplier will multiply the TT higher cost anyways.

I did a lot of small sessions with lower cost BP's with huge losses (80%, and etc) and never got that kind of multiplier that rebalance things.

and THIS is what I'm talking about.

It's ok the tt return is 98% (even if its a guess, and I know you can control that too) but my question is about MULTIPLIER.

No matter the cost of a click, 80% loss is 80% loss and if a x200 is needed to go back to 98% to say so, then it is the same no matter the cost of the click.
So now you will tell me that I'm doing more x50 than him and so the game is balanced.

And I still will ask why. Because this is my question.

Would it be BP bound? Avatar Bound? I don't think this question is stupid. Having a x200 permits you to go for a break, have huge amount of cash and try some things.
When you get x50 and very rarely x80 you can't experiment.
With a 25k PED hof I would try some other things. When I HOF 2k I can just continue until I have lost everything.
98% and 98%... but not the same.