Yet another loot theory!!!!!

Blackjack

Stalker
Joined
Jan 28, 2007
Posts
2,274
Location
Harker Heights, Texas
Society
The Disturbed Ones
Avatar Name
Jaxon Blackjack Crowley
Ok, since I've been reading EF I've seen several very good loot theories so I figured I'd toss my own out there. If this kind of thing bores you, then by all means move along,nothing to see here.:D I am interested in generating some discussion about how this works, but personnally I don't think that we'll ever really know for sure. Still it's fun to speculate so here goes.

BTW, I just read Nightbirds post prior to reading this and there are some very good ideas in there. If I shamelessly stole any from anyone my apoligies, it wasn't intentional.

Loot pool

MA’s cut is the repair of items. Nothing more, nothing less.
Everything else spent in EU is cycled into the lootpool.
So if you deposit and receive 1000 peds the breakdown would look like this.
1000 ped:
700 ped ammo
300 ped repairs (decay)

The 300 ped decay is gone. This goes to MA as profits/operating costs/etc
The 700 ped spent on ammo is placed back into the lootpool to be looted by others.
The lootpool is probably broken down by percentages. The exact numbers are OFC unknown but here is an example:
700 ped:
400 ped – standard loot
200 ped – global loot
100 ped – Hof/ATH
Each of these 3 lootpools is assigned a percentage which acts similar to a skill modifier and is applied to each individuals odds of receiving a particular loot.
Each mob has a timing modifier which changes based on the time of day and slightly increases or decreases your chances of receiving loot.
Each server has a timing modifier which changes based on the time of day and slightly increases or decreases your chances of receiving loot.
So it would look like this:
Server #5 @ 5pm +5%
Berycled @ 5pm +6%
Standard loot +5%
Global loot +2%
Hof/ATH +1%

So if you are hunting Berycled on server #5 at 5pm, your base modifier to receive a hof would be +12%
This would explain the loot cycles that anyone who has camped a mob or simply watched global chat sees.
Now to explain the what the modifier is modifying
All avatars start with a baseline percentage, lets call it 2%.
This number is for an avatar with no skills and no equipment.
The more skills you have which relate to a particular activity, the higher your baseline is for that activity.
Equipment also has a small modifier which is added to your avatar modifier when it is equipped.
Each mob in addition to the timing mod, also has a difficulty rating which when compared to your avatar baseline serves to modify that percentage depending on how close you are to equaling the mobs rating. If you are above the mob rating (stronger), then your baseline is decreased, if you are below the mob rating (weaker) then it is increased.
To simplify, this states that if you hunt a mob which is a proper match for your skill and equipment, and you hunt that mob at the right time and place you will maximize your chances of receiving loot.

Now for the Lootpool itself….
This would be a standard percentage which by itself does not fluctuate unless adjusted by MA. Lets say it is a sliding scale of 5% - 20%. Ma would want to leave it alone for the most part because the effect of changing this would be fairly dramatic and large changes would likely be visible to the customer base. I would suggest that this is probably only adjusted during events. It is likely that this is also particular to each server and not just one scale for all of entropia. So lets say that the standard is 10%.
So our avatar (lets call him Mike) is a mid level player with a baseline modifier of 2%
He is equipped with mid level gear which gives him a modifier of an additional 0.75% to his baseline.
This gives Mike a baseline of 2.75%
He is hunting a berycled stalker which has a difficulty rating of 200
The optimum difficulty rating for a mob Mike is hunting is 275 so he is a bit over strength for this particular mob. This results in the difference (0.75%) being subtracted from his baseline Which brings it down to 2.00%.
Mike is hunting in server #5 at 5pm and is hunting Berycled so he receives an 11% modifier which is added to his baseline for a total of 13%. Add to this MA’s standard percentage of 10% return and his chances of receiving loot are as follows:
Standard loot – 28%
Global loot – 25%
Hof/ATH – 24%
Now as I’m writing this and calculating the numbers, I can see that something is not right, 24% chance of an ATH? I don’t think so!!! But I think that is more a question of the math involved (I hate math) and the ideas behind it are still valid.
So here’s where you lot come in – if you think it looks fine the way it is, you’re probably insane and should stop reading here and seek treatment. If you think the theory sounds right but the math is off, I’d love to see what it looks like with the proper numbers! And if you think I’m full of shit and don’t have the foggiest idea what I’m talking about your spot on but feel free to post your theory and we can compare notes to see who is craziest.


Blackjack :cowboy:
 
Now .. you see.. this is what gets me all confused and frustrated while i'm hunting.. i try to keep it simple by thinking it's time, place, weapon, mob, now i'm going to have even MORE to think about :rolleyes: LOL !
 
your pretty close . . .. .
 
Now .. you see.. this is what gets me all confused and frustrated while i'm hunting.. i try to keep it simple by thinking it's time, place, weapon, mob, now i'm going to have even MORE to think about :rolleyes: LOL !

Yes, I see..... Sorry! In my defense I can only say that I havent had any Beer yet today which usually prevents me from thinking about things like this....:ahh:

Going to go rectify that now...
Blackjack :copboy:
 
Hi, BlackJack

Are you a programmer or an economist?

I 'll only comment after u answer the question. :rolleyes:
 
Hi, BlackJack

Are you a programmer or an economist?

I 'll only comment after u answer the question. :rolleyes:

None of the above. Im an equipment specialist (electronics) for the US Dept. of Defense.

Blackjack :cowboy:
 
*raises hands* Question... what if you use only melee?

Tired and bit drunk, so if already covered it just slap me and call me sally.
 
*raises hands* Question... what if you use only melee?

Tired and bit drunk, so if already covered it just slap me and call me sally.

I wouldn't think it would matter really, except for the generally higher decay rates of melee weps.

Blackjack :cowboy:
 
MA’s cut is the repair of items. Nothing more, nothing less.
Everything else spent in EU is cycled into the lootpool.

I can agree with these two, with a comment. It seems higher the repair bill at one time, higher the chances of a global/hof following in a relatively short time frame.

I usually repair stuff in bulk (armor/fap/tools/weapon) when planning a big venture like for exemple mining with 103 amp amogst big trox - if repair bill 'decent' enough (abt 40-50 peds) I noticed my chances of globalling (or getting several nice finds/loots) are higher.

I cannot really explain it in figures or percentages but I see it working for some time now. As a best case scenario, after repairs, if I go for high markup resources I have a good chance of maximizing my profits.

Dunno if this works for ya peeps or if ya even tried it (noticed it) but would like to see comments on it :)
 
Sharyn,
This fits nicely into my loot theory I think. If the equipment modifier drops as an item(s) decays, while it would not really be noticable as its dropping, it would result in your equipment bonus bieng restored for each item as you repair them. This would result in an increase in your chances to loot with the optimum bieng right after hitting the repair terminal. the more decay you fix, the more your bonus would increase.

Your suggestion would also explain why it seems that loot gets better after a deposit. Whats the first thing most of us do with our deposits? Repair all that broken crap!!!:D

Thanks for the comments!

Blackjack :cowboy:
 
See my sig ;)
 
Your sort of right in a way i think. However loot doesnt dribble down to you avatar and there are no %age to get a global or hof etc.. loot dribbles down to areas, mobtypes and so on.
 
Last edited:
Here is my how loot works theory:

Follow the links for a lot of info about it:

http://entertainment.howstuffworks.com/slot-machine2.htm

And:

http://entertainment.howstuffworks.com/slot-machine4.htm

I.

Interesting...but acoording to that EU can't be gabling course of law(or noone already investigate that in such direction) skils and gear must be involved. On slot machine skills dont count. Can be also that u gain acces to new "slot machines" with higher skils and beter equipment.

Number of EU players comapred to all slot machiness players is so small that i can imagine situation that whole EU is gambling and MA can easly proove to some gambilng authorities during "control" that EU is not gambling at all.

On the other side u can use some "slot machines" strategies here as well to be more lucky than others if rules are simple. Article say that your odds for jackpot (glob/HoF here) remain always same, but if we compare playing here to realy easy slot machine with odds lets say f.e. 1/10 for win your odds of win can be higher after 10000 tries without sucess. And this is what MA stated few times that u have to be in right place, at right TIME. U must just "keep shooting" to not allow other participants grab your jackpot.
 
Everyone has a loot theory that is well thought-out, extensively researched and wrong.

I guess MA doesn't know either ;) That hamster that lives inside the loot server box can't communicate with hewmans, and he makes all the loot decisions. That is, unless by "everyone" you include animals, in which case you must be wrong :laugh:
 
There is a lot of sense in the theory above and it is something like my own theory....

The main problem I have with the theory in the OP, and most other theories, is that we are somehow led to believe that MA take a certain cut in a certain way, e.g. decay. I think this is rubbish.

This has to be rubbish because if we all hunted naked with a RepEdge 2x0 blade and no fap, for, say, a year, and all did nothing else, we would all end up with total loot higher than zero peds.

I believe that MA simply pay out high loots at a certain rate, which they can tailor as and when necessary, i.e. there is a switch. This clearly makes it gambling.

MA tell the authorities they are not running a gambling operation in the knowledge that the authorities are unlikely to check their code. Personally, I do not care that they are running a gambling operation and am happy to participate.

I also believe that MA is run using many elements seen in a Ponzi scheme. I am not saying that is wrong or that I would do differently, as I am sure banks operate in a similar manner. What I mean is, if the highest skilled 1000 avatars in the game all somehow sold all their items and skills at market value to an imaginary MA NPC and withdrew the peds, MA would cease to exist very soon afterwards.

Forrest :)
 
I also believe that MA is run using many elements seen in a Ponzi scheme. I am not saying that is wrong or that I would do differently, as I am sure banks operate in a similar manner. What I mean is, if the highest skilled 1000 avatars in the game all somehow sold all their items and skills at market value to an imaginary MA NPC and withdrew the peds, MA would cease to exist very soon afterwards.

Forrest :)

No it would't. Iff sudenly 50 mod faps apear on market they will be wort 1/100 of what they are worth now :)
 
"The Entropia Platform has been developed for over 10 years at a cost of over $40m. Commercially launched in 2003, MindArk's Planet Calypso has been generating profit since 2004 and has served as a vehicle for fine tuning the platform's business model and functionality. It has today over 820,000 registered accounts from over 200 territories. User to user transactions within Entropia Universe exceeded USD $420m during 2008."

To support MA's claim that profit is taken only from decay, consider the following: If 4000 users generate $100 in decay every week, that is 20.8 million dollars in profit a year. Based on the above news release, operating costs are 4 million a year. That would indicate 160 million profit over 10 years. I think this is a realistic amount for an operation such as MA, with a relatively low operating cost. That also leaves a tremendous potential for growth and earnings through the currently untapped areas of marketing such as toys, clothing, etc... (Skalman action figure anyone?). This would look extremely attractive to potential investors as well (Planet Partners).
My point is this - Decay as a profit mechanism is a more than adequate means to support a company like MA, so why would they need to take money elsewhere in game? And if they were to do that and then lie about it, they run the risk of discovery which would jeapordize what is currently a very lucrative business model. This is why I feel it is fairly safe to assume Marco was telling the truth when he said that profit is generated through decay.

But hey, I could be wrong and MA has just spent 10 years sucking us all in so that they can abscond in the night with thier ill-gotten gains...:eek:

Blackjack :cowboy:
 
I've always felt that skills were a "end of the line", so to speak, for MA. They are one thing that costs them nothing to award and has value only to other players, not the TT. Ammo & decay may both be taken into account for the amount of return to a player in the form of loot. A certain amount of investment is also returned in the form of skills which may be the "profit" for MA.
 
One word: Crafting.

% returns in tt for crafting is no better than any other profession. By this frame of thought, the items consumed in crafting count as being "decayed", and this leads to thinking all ammo and bombs etc are "decayed". It's really much easier to think of MA's income as a % of the economic activity ingame.
 
This has to be rubbish because if we all hunted naked with a RepEdge 2x0 blade and no fap, for, say, a year, and all did nothing else, we would all end up with total loot higher than zero peds.

We would all end up with diminishing loots and much more boring hunts is what you mean to say.

I believe that MA simply pay out high loots at a certain rate, which they can tailor as and when necessary, i.e. there is a switch. This clearly makes it gambling.

This clearly would make it gambling, if this were true. No evidence, no support, thus just a belief.

MA tell the authorities they are not running a gambling operation in the knowledge that the authorities are unlikely to check their code. Personally, I do not care that they are running a gambling operation and am happy to participate.

...not care if they are running a gambling...

I also believe that MA is run using many elements seen in a Ponzi scheme. I am not saying that is wrong or that I would do differently, as I am sure banks operate in a similar manner. What I mean is, if the highest skilled 1000 avatars in the game all somehow sold all their items and skills at market value to an imaginary MA NPC and withdrew the peds, MA would cease to exist very soon afterwards.

:scratch2: <First use of a smiley for me>

This is the one that made me write a response because it makes no sense what-so-ever.

If everyone sold out everything to an imaginary MA NPC... Why would MA do that? Especially at market value? Market value is for player to player transactions. That's what make market value. MA backs everything with TT value. And I bet you bottom dollar that everything in the game is backed by that TT amount by MA. No Ponzi scheme. And pretty irresponsible accusation without evidence.
 
what we should really do is gather anyone in game thats good with stats and analysis, and organise a community wide (as many people as we can gather) to submit stats, then analyse that ;)

As in, every single little stat you could ever possibly track and log it then analyse it.

Equipment
Skills
Location
Mob
Crafting Item etc
damage inflicted
NRFs
Team or Solo
TT return

plus lots more... then sitck it in a huge SAS database and analyse the fook out of it...

That in my view... would be the only way to getting even close to finding a 'perfect way of playing'

That said however...

I do like Blackjacks theory, seems to fit my personal circumstances well :)


I wonder if I should start such a project... :confused:
 
I wonder if I should start such a project... :confused:

How kind of you to volunteer Woodger! Let me know what you find out...

***Waits patiently...:D

Blackjack :cowboy:
 
One word: Crafting.

% returns in tt for crafting is no better than any other profession. By this frame of thought, the items consumed in crafting count as being "decayed", and this leads to thinking all ammo and bombs etc are "decayed". It's really much easier to think of MA's income as a % of the economic activity ingame.

Crafting ingredients could be seen as ammo, the return as loot, the failures as misses (goes to loot pool) and the difference between the tt of ingredients and tt of success is the decay. (using a hunting analogy...)

Same with mining. Bombs / probes could be ammo, decay is taken from finder / extractor, no resource found bomb / probe costs go to loot pool.
 
In order to decide what mob will give me the best chance of loot, I roll the Atrox bones, study the entrails of a sacrificed Bery, burn some Nexus and inhale the vapours, finally seeking inspiration in the pattern of the clouds over the secret island.

That's my well thought-out and extensively researched loot theory, it's easily the most accurate way of predicting loot ever discovered. I don't give a flying F.... ugabarba if you believe me or not :silly2:
 
I think that if we ever discover how the lootpool is working and if that knowledge generates profit and that info get some expansion..., well don´t you people think that a company like MA is prepared for that in form of a flexible and coordinated multi application lootpool system, so that it can work accordingly to what ever MA have in their businessman minds.
 
MA’s cut is the repair of items. Nothing more, nothing less.

Wrong. Marco said MA "takes out of decays", that does not mean they get the entire decay.
 
Back
Top