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  1. Xavier_Jr's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Mary Jane
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    I read everything and was a great job...
    Always interesting to see things like that...
    Thank you
  2. Xavier_Jr's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Karmic
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    I should also mention that doing things like amped mining on FOMA will generate a lower than 9x% return especially if you don't remove the amp markup. Most long term return percentages also ignore uberloots which is like determining the payout of a video poker machine but ignoring the royal flush payout. It's just extremely difficult for someone to do enough trials to generate a well distributed loot pattern with the high multiplier, low chance loots.
    Yes is true. People who do not know how play the game uses weapons, tools and amplifiers with a greater MU, than MU of loot that they are looking find. They could be named as complainers "not smart"
  3. Xavier_Jr's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Karmic
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    I do not like the 90% rule always being quoted as gospel. It assumes that nothing you do in the game matters, eco etc, yet extensive recordkeeping from myself and others shows a much closer to 95% return and even higher with the proper setups and mobs. Lets assume, however, that it works similar to a slot machine with a standard 9x% return and your in-game activities can cause this to vary +/- 10% or so.
    It is true, I agree with you about thats, but also is clear that rate of return, depend on turnover and velocity of cycled peds. And, not being Mindark a charitable business, they will need to establish a limit where should generate profit for the company.

    The log of Hugh Willose allowed us to see real data:



    (He reached a RoR of 100% after more than 250k recycled peds in 7 months).

    On the other hand in a complaint thread of Michael Lif3bring3r Johnson, he said that in 7 months he had recycled 1M Peds and also reached a RoR of 100% (however, he wished a best result).

    Falkao not only says that as you approach recycling 100k you approach 90% of RoR (- He has also defined a list of percentiles -). But it was the standard that community have chose to believe it. (a greater number could implies Mindark closely be a charitable company - But probably is no exist nothing more far from truth) By other hand, also it could have chosen 80% when were recycled only 50k peds. But perhaps 90% gives us more hope, because MU of loot, usually, is not more than 10%.



    Quote Originally Posted by Karmic
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    Given 1000 avatars all playing the same amount of time, looting the same amount of mobs and an imaginary 1 in 100,000 chance of hitting an uberloot. In a truly random system it is virtually guaranteed that one avatar will uber twice before all 1000 uber once. In fact, it is virtually guaranteed that one will uber 3, 4, or even 5 times before all 1000 uber once.
    Only if We have endless events, You could guarantee through real luck and not a simulation, that all possibilities will occur.

    For example, if all people were immortal; I might guarantee that at some point You will go to bed with a winner of Miss Universe (example with Miss 2004).

    But like events are not infinite, Entropia Universe is much less. Then the only way to ensure that a unique player will receive the best loots always before than rest it is either cheating, or having a fault, such that true fate was not simulated properly. (Besides, you have forgotten in your premise that these big loots are often achieved on the same day or within a short period of time, which will also make your negative exponent even larger, that is, it is much less improbably and not warrantable..).

    Listen me, I am talking about you have said word: "guaranteed". I only can talk about probabilities. Mathematics are so beautifull because all is possible with them, however commonly best explanations usually are guided only by greater probabilities. For example, If Democritus would been only faithfull to mathematics, We would not have now Atomic Theories; because the imaginary Democritus´s knife would continue cutting matter forever without discover the atom.



    Quote Originally Posted by Karmic
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    Loot is more likely to be generated when you loot a mob, not pre-determined for the life of your avatar.
    Randomness inside a computer always would be predefined by a mathematical serie. As i said above, it is not needed to have a table with numbers pre-determined. You would only need to execute an algorithm at the looting moment. Believe me, a dozen monkeys, with a couple of dice, could make a better job for determining luck, comparatively with results that Entropia Universe (not so infrequently) can simulate.

    However, i agree with you, there is better ways to simulate luck inside a computer; as I said above. But not always Mindark programmers seems follow best practices. Thats all.
    Updated 10-17-2011 at 18:53 by Xavier_Jr
  4. Karmic's Avatar
    I should also mention that doing things like amped mining on FOMA will generate a lower than 9x% return especially if you don't remove the amp markup. Most long term return percentages also ignore uberloots which is like determining the payout of a video poker machine but ignoring the royal flush payout. It's just extremely difficult for someone to do enough trials to generate a well distributed loot pattern with the high multiplier, low chance loots.

    take http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/t...sorbetter.html as an example, there are nearly 20 trillion combinations, to determine the average payout through sampling rather than mathematics would be extremely difficult and time consuming.
  5. Karmic's Avatar
    Good write up, but a few points.

    I do not like the 90% rule always being quoted as gospel. It assumes that nothing you do in the game matters, eco etc, yet extensive recordkeeping from myself and others shows a much closer to 95% return and even higher with the proper setups and mobs. Lets assume, however, that it works similar to a slot machine with a standard 9x% return and your in-game activities can cause this to vary +/- 10% or so.

    given 1000 avatars all playing the same amount of time, looting the same amount of mobs and an imaginary 1 in 100,000 chance of hitting an uberloot. In a truly random system it is virtually guaranteed that one avatar will uber twice before all 1000 uber once. In fact, it is virtually guaranteed that one will uber 3, 4, or even 5 times before all 1000 uber once.

    The guy that hits 5 does not have any random seed advantage over the other guy, it is just the way things worked out.

    Finally, why would any programmer assign a loot seed to an avatar at creation? It just doesn't pass the smell test. Loot is more likely to be generated when you loot a mob, not pre-determined for the life of your avatar. If it were attached to your avatar it would not generate a 90% or any other % fixed return because you hunt and loot different mobs during your lifetime, if you hunted snablesnots constantly and then went on a team hunt on proteron just as your predetermined "big loot" came up, your "controlled" system would fail.
  6. Mary Jane's Avatar
    I read everything and was a great job...
    Always interesting to see things like that...
  7. Xavier_Jr's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Derid
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    Great stuff, best read I had in a long time here! Keep it up mate!
    Thank You, I will try.
  8. Derid's Avatar
    Great stuff, best read I had in a long time here! Keep it up mate!
  9. Xavier_Jr's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Sircus
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    I have quite a simple theory why some avas can hit 2 uberloots in a less then 24 hours. The server doesnt save that you got the first hit. So it feeds you another one.
    It could be... however sometimes this delay could be some more than 24 hours (look at locations in radar picture). In my opinion is more likely it could be a fail in the internal algorithm.
    Updated 10-15-2011 at 11:39 by Xavier_Jr
  10. trance's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Xavier_Jr
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    Well,


    As a joke, we could say that in these cases would be better to hire a dozen monkeys whose only work will be throwing the dice, instead of an algorithm with some level of error.
    Who says, maybe MA does this way. Somme times , if i look at hoflist, it seems to be generated from monkeys.
  11. Sircus's Avatar
    I have quite a simple theory why some avas can hit 2 uberloots in a less then 24 hours. The server doesnt save that you got the first hit. So it feeds you another one.
  12. Xavier_Jr's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Magyar_Republic
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    Would it not be possible, given these types of seeds, to also generate consistently high and consistently low values within the seed? I understand the probability of doing so would be rather slim, but is it not possible? This would explain extreme cases such as Naomi NP Polder, as well as some of the more consistently positive cases.
    Well, I guess anything is possible. But knowing what we know, what could be the most likely? Very strange data whose probability of occurrence is extremely low, or simply a failure of internal programming, which basically does not affect Mindark because they are getting the rate of profit they expect, and only affect to some players very "unlucky".?

    As a joke, we could say that in these cases would be better to hire a dozen monkeys whose only work will be throwing the dice, instead of an algorithm with some level of error.
  13. Magyar_Republic's Avatar
    Wonderful write up. I appreciated the examples of the Percentile's pyramid and the seeds to showcase different examples of how an avatar can be affected.

    Would it not be possible, given these types of seeds, to also generate consistently high and consistently low values within the seed? I understand the probability of doing so would be rather slim, but is it not possible? This would explain extreme cases such as Naomi NP Polder, as well as some of the more consistently positive cases.

    I'd like to repost this on my site as part of a cash and playstyle management section.
  14. AxeMurderer's Avatar
    interesting read
  15. Oracle's Avatar
    I think EU can be different things to different people at different times.

    You can decide to play the big mobs in the hope of hitting an uber or a nice item: this does feel like gambling, I think, and has spawned many discussions regarding the role of chance or some unknown avatar based variable(s).

    But you can also just hunt (as a hunter I'm talking from this profession's perspective) for fun and/or for progression in skills, tiering etc.

    Then there are all the other activities within EU that exclude chance and gambling such as socialising, exploring, trading etc.

    At the end of the day, though, I think that most players know that even if EU isn't a casino there has still got to be that losing 'zero' in the system for MindArk to make their cut as well as other more skilled and better equipped players having an edge over you.

    Despite this, though, you can't help feeling some days that Lady Luck has smiled on you: whether this is enough to make up for all those bad days though is another matter!
  16. Xavier_Jr's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Mikass
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    The bottom line to my argument would be that people would have to choose between a good product and an inferior product and the subsequent choice would be pretty obvious in the end, even if it comes at some extra cost.
    Your opinion is very intersting. However, my view is more about the existence of an integrated platform. The internet was born from universities, and, regardless of the origin of the browser, if it is IExplorer, Mozilla or another, sites around the world can be linked to each other (sites from bussines, organizations, or people in general ). But the internet platform dont belongs to any particular person; and this, i think is the main cause of its succesful. This is the essence of my view: A same avatar (with a same USD card) walking between differents virtual worlds (from differents Owners), and he can stay where he thinks is more beatifull, or is more usefull, for him (surely, some sites that he may visit, could be very more expensive than another, but could exist sites with no cost too). My view have not nothing to do with socialist worlds. (Besides because i think the money is, and will be for ever, the crude oil of our universe). - In fact the only countries that in latin america are socialists now are Cuba, Venezuela and Bolivia. And Thanks to God that i am not living in anyone of them. - hehe.
    Updated 10-13-2010 at 21:09 by Xavier_Jr
  17. Xavier_Jr's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Mikass
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    Many of the loot tests over medium long periods of time have shown roughly 89% return or 88%. Ofc it`s easy to round it up and not get lost in the details. Out of my experience however +5years, I can claim with 99% certainty that players that have deposited zero and have had close to zero turnover got 10k hofs(had such an example in soc) after 2-3 days of playing cycling little below 10-20ped, after selling the sweat they got. Now how would that be possible? My take is that 1 or 2% from the tax on loot MA takes(might be that 1-2% up to 90%) goes back to certain players as bonus hofs. MA might be inclined to give that % to noobs in order to motivate them and get them hooked. Ofc all others might get it also(depending on how MA has this set up) and they`ll always have access to their own personal lootpool from where hofs can happen if account shows a big imbalance.
    I completely agree with you. In fact, Starfinder once said, that 2% of all loot, from ET, correspond to Uberloots or ATHs. Then, I think exists a personal pool loot of 88% and, the rest 2%, as a common pool loot for Uberloot and ATHs available for everybody.
  18. Mikass's Avatar
    Great post. I can say I agree almost entirely and I think you got it right with the way loot system works.

    Regarding loot I`d like to make a little comment. Many of the loot tests over medium long periods of time have shown roughly 89% return or 88%. Ofc it`s easy to round it up and not get lost in the details. Out of my experience however +5years, I can claim with 99% certainty that players that have deposited zero and have had close to zero turnover got 10k hofs(had such an example in soc) after 2-3 days of playing cycling little below 10-20ped, after selling the sweat they got. Now how would that be possible? My take is that 1 or 2% from the tax on loot MA takes(might be that 1-2% up to 90%) goes back to certain players as bonus hofs. MA might be inclined to give that % to noobs in order to motivate them and get them hooked. Ofc all others might get it also(depending on how MA has this set up) and they`ll always have access to their own personal lootpool from where hofs can happen if account shows a big imbalance.
  19. Mikass's Avatar
    Well summed up argument. This dichotomy however of state(the people) vs corporations doesn`t really stand out on most of the times. Some corporations might choose to make it open platform and have everyone create their own content and their own virtual space. They can capitalize with ads following Google`s example or selling some over the top benefits/bonuses. This is however a political debate at some level and as you come from S America I can see why you adhere to a so called socialist meme.

    They way I see it however is that the state is just a big corporation, very similar any billion dollar corporation. The bigger they get, the harder they can generate growth. A big corporation is unable to generate growth at certain point same as the state. When it gets to that level, the only way for it to get more growth is by artificially pumping money into
    the acquisition of smaller companies. These small companies are successful because they have a direct hands on approach on things and the boss is directly interested in making it a big success and has all employees on short leash. When they get bigger and start to delegate shit happens. The managers they elect don`t care about anything else then their own job and things start to get ugly, same as in the state the employees don`t really care about the product they`re working on and results more then always tend to be poor and messy. This is why you won`t see a good opensource software that could go head to head with Microsoft or Entropia or whatever. These open platform projects made by universities don`t get enough traction and are more then often excuses to get big budgets and waste money away because most just don`t give a damn as it`s not their own interest on the line. Would be nice ofc to live in a world where people are 100% altruistic but man is a selfish animal with very individualistic needs.

    This video of some free platform virtual world is a very poor quality by all industry standards and we can never expect for it to perform better than the corporate counterparts for the reasons mentioned above. ...for the same reasons hierarchical soviet type communist countries failed because they mimic the structure of a big corporation. Only difference is that such a state can`t perform synthetic growth the way a corporation can by mergers or acquisitions.
    Ofc you can also make the case that people can come together on their own not part of a state hierarchy or some catholic church university(a state hierarchy basically) in groups to create some good product. Ofc doing something as a hobby has very limited results and it`s very hard for that group to come together when there`s not enough incentive. This is why most of these attempts turn out to be failures in the end.

    The bottom line to my argument would be that people would have to choose between a good product and an inferior product and the subsequent choice would be pretty obvious in the end, even if it comes at some extra cost.
    Updated 10-13-2010 at 09:50 by Mikass
  20. Lezardine's Avatar
    Very interresting evolution theory, my dear Darwin!

    thx for sharing

    .Lez.

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