Major tier upgrade process

Witte said:

If the system works as Marco agreed to, you do have a 10% chance to lose the item. If it actually works with 2 dice rolls it is 5%.

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Oh, I love numbers

Total risk of loosing secondary item over a maximum of 2 attempts = 7,25%
Risk to loose the secondary item on the second attempt = 2,25%

Here is how:
My interpretation of the OP as well as Marcos futher statements is that is only one "dice roll".

Assuming these facts are correct:
- One die roll per atempt
- 50% chans of success
- 45% chanse of faliure with salvage
- 5% chanse of total faliure (secondary item lost)

if you succed there is no second try. If the item is destroyed in the first attempt there is no second try (with that item). Hence there is only a 45% chanse of a second try to acure. And in the second attempt there is a 5% chans to lose the item (as it allways is in any one attempt).

So 5% of 45% is 2,25%.

Now total chanse to lose the item over a maximum of two trys is an other story ofcourse. My intuition says 5% (risk in first attempt) + 2,25% (risk in second attempt waying in the chanse there won't be a second attempt) = 7,25% risk. I'm not how ever an expert on statistics so I'm can't say for sure on that one...

Feel free to prove me wrong

MATAR >> Might As well Try Another Race.

Perhaps you could also calculate the chance of losing 2 duplicate items on 2 failures

1 dice??

not sure BUT

i fail to see how it can be just 1 dice roll couse:

if u fail, not always the item is destroyed
also u have 2 succes rates - on components and other on item(and they differ)

Ionar said:

Oh, I love numbers

Total risk of loosing secondary item over a maximum of 2 attempts = 7,25%
Risk to loose the secondary item on the second attempt = 2,25%

Here is how:
My interpretation of the OP as well as Marcos futher statements is that is only one "dice roll".

Assuming these facts are correct:
- One die roll per atempt
- 50% chans of success
- 45% chanse of faliure with salvage
- 5% chanse of total faliure (secondary item lost)

if you succed there is no second try. If the item is destroyed in the first attempt there is no second try (with that item). Hence there is only a 45% chanse of a second try to acure. And in the second attempt there is a 5% chans to lose the item (as it allways is in any one attempt).

So 5% of 45% is 2,25%.

Now total chanse to lose the item over a maximum of two trys is an other story ofcourse. My intuition says 5% (risk in first attempt) + 2,25% (risk in second attempt waying in the chanse there won't be a second attempt) = 7,25% risk. I'm not how ever an expert on statistics so I'm can't say for sure on that one...

Feel free to prove me wrong

Click to expand...

But you can also fail in the second try. And in the third, and in the fourth, theoretically up until infinity. So you have to take the sum of these scenarios. You will get a geometric series of which you can calculate the exact value, see for example Wikipedia.

Hulyss said:

MATAR >> Might As well Try Another Race.

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A bit of topic perhaps, but fun any way

chevrons said:

Perhaps you could also calculate the chance of losing 2 duplicate items on 2 failures

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Sure.

5% of 5% = 0,25%

5% chans of you needing a second item for your second attempt and as allways 5% chans to lose it on that perticular attempt.

Oh no - numbers. Everywhere numbers!

Just want to let you know that my brain exploded.
My last word shall be Rosebud. I mean Tetris.

Witte said:

But you can also fail in the second try. And in the third, and in the fourth, theoretically up until infinity. So you have to take the sum of these scenarios. You will get a geometric series of which you can calculate the exact value, see for example Wikipedia.

Click to expand...

Ah, I think I see what you mean. My example (as I stated) is only for a maximum of 2 attempts. As that was kind of what I was seeing beign discused.

So the numbers you gave are for an infinite number of tryes until you either succed or loos the secondary item? And that then comes to 10%? ... I got to brush up on my statistics, thanks for pointing me in the right direction

Ionar said:

Ah, I think I see what you mean. My example (as I stated) is only for a maximum of 2 attempts. As that was kind of what I was seeing beign discused.

So the numbers you gave are for an infinite number of tryes until you either succed or loos the secondary item? And that then comes to 10%? ... I got to brush up on my statistics, thanks for pointing me in the right direction

Click to expand...

I will give it a try:

Chance of losing in one try: 0.05
Chance of losing in two tries: 0.45*0.05
Chance of losing in three tries: 0.45*0.45*0.05

So the series become:

0.05(sum(n=0->infinity)(0.45)^n)

The solution to that sum is 1/(1-0.45)*0.05 = 0.0909

So chance is 9.09%, if I did all correct.

can we forward that to MA to get actual percentages without guessing ?

shoti said:

can we forward that to MA to get actual percentages without guessing ?

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What makes you think that MA knows how it works exactly?

why is it so hard to understand that its only 1 dice roll per attemp?

In pen&paper RPGs we got just the same system with a dice 20. Natural 20 is a critical hit, natural 1 is a thumble, in between sometwhere lies your "hitchance" on your certain level on a certain mob or armor. So you roll just once, check if the roll is in your succesrate and only speak about crit or thumble when you roll a 20 or a 1.

Now you can add boni for your equipment (lets say you got a longsword +4, which means that you add a bonus of +4 to your roll) and also the creature has an armor class (lets say its 7 and you hit it with your +4 sword, you need to roll at least a 3 to hit 3+4=7). Additionally you got character levels which add a bonus to your hitchance too. ( a level 3 fighter has a hitchance of +3), so technically a level 3 fighter with a +4 sword only needs to roll a 1 to hit, BUT a natural (unmodified roll) 1 is always a fumble.

Its the same for the Tier system (just with different boni and mali) and Marco stated that this is true. The differences are that we got a dice 100 system here which is 5 out of 100 instead of 1 out of 20.

Uni said:

Hi Parlog,

either my head works crap, or im dumb
but if it won't disturb u can u explain me that about 1 dice?

what confuses me is that u have 2 results when u fail to upgrade - 1.u loose all, 2. u salvage the second item.
But to me it seems that in ur system only when u roll "high" numbers u salvage the item, but with that u should then also always upgrade the first item.

Click to expand...

Hi,

this is a D100:

[br]Click to enlarge[/br]

in the standard RPG system (usually a dice20 system) the first 5% (the 1 on a dice 20 roll) are the fumble while in our current EU system the last 5% (result 96,97,98,99,100 on a d100 roll) are the fumble.

So basically you got just 1 roll with a dice100. Let me do 3 examples for the three different results Marco refered to:

- You roll a result between 1 and 50 on a d100, result: you consume the components, but the second weapon needed is salvaged + your primary weapon gets a Tier upgrade --> this means its a full succes!

- You roll a result between 51 and 95 on a d100, result: The Tier up attemp fails, one or more of the components needed are consumed but the secondary item is still salvaged.

- You fumble, meaning you roll a result of 96-100 on a d100: The secondary item gets consumed as well as the components.

I hope this explains it!

Regards Par

i felt free to post this answer in the Tier up topic
-------------------------------------------------------------------

fumble with F, hmm whenever i fumbled in RPGs i usually lost an arm or get decapitated so the question how to spell fumble was the least of my problems... (btw in german we say "Patzer")

Took me long to read all post

After I tier my LM with 50% risk to lose it, I find something interesing

U can add multiple enhancer to each slot - like tier one , add 10 ranger enhancer

so If I can add all tier 10 slot with 100 enhancer - MY LM is Foreripper ME

one more post about my XT and X1

loos like these L gun lose interesting on market, but NO

please use L gun and keep the low tt - don't tt them

There is a USAGE of these tt food

I will discuss later......

Aladding -2 said:

Took me long to read all post

After I tier my LM with 50% risk to lose it, I find something interesing

U can add multiple enhancer to each slot - like tier one , add 10 ranger enhancer

so If I can add all tier 10 slot with 100 enhancer - MY LM is Foreripper ME

Click to expand...

You did not have a 50% chance of losing it. More like 5% (with one attempt).

You can add multiple enhancers to one slot, but that does not increase the modification. Adding more enhancers to one slot just increases the duration of that enhancement.

Oleg said:

It's easy for me to say, I know, but it was your choice to click it. You could have just waited a couple of weeks. The markup on those things will probably drop to a tenth of what they are now, and we've been told that the system is going to change.

Click to expand...

True but should we really be punished for trying out a new game feature?

Parlog said:

Hi,

this is a D100:

[br]Click to enlarge[/br]
...

Click to expand...

ah, didn't know there's smt like D100 :O
there's something i dont like about that system

thx, +rep for clearing it up

Witte said:

I will give it a try:

Chance of losing in one try: 0.05
Chance of losing in two tries: 0.45*0.05
Chance of losing in three tries: 0.45*0.45*0.05

So the series become:

0.05(sum(n=0->infinity)(0.45)^n)

The solution to that sum is 1/(1-0.45)*0.05 = 0.0909

So chance is 9.09%, if I did all correct.

Click to expand...

I believe this is the chance of losing just 1 duplicate item before success.

Following the same method, the chance of losing 2 is

Chance of losing in two tries: 0.05*0.05
Chance of losing in three tries: 0.05*0.45*0.05

So the total chance of losing a 2nd item is 1.01%, and of a 3rd is 0.11%,etc

Over 10 Tiers
Chance of losing 1 item - 61.4%
Chance of losing 2 items - 9.6%
Chance of losing 3 items - 1.1%

So the total chance of losing 1,2 , or 3 items = 72% over 10 tiers

It's anyone's guess how long it will take to skill Upgrading before these numbers come down significantly.

kintoo said:

Well submitted a support case to see if they can explain why anyone would even attempt this

---------------------------------

I attempted to use the new game function "Upgrade item tier" on my OF-105 and the result was unsuccessful. In your news you stated there was an 95% item salvage chance, however I received 44 Peds of Animal Residue considering the low drop rate of the materials involved I purchased the items needed for the upgrade attempt and the 95% salvage rate returned as residue is very poor. The item salvage rate should return part of the items used not some residue which is pure TT value.

Please can you investigate this serious issue as with only a 50% change of success this will put people off trying this in future.

Please feel free to remove the 44 Ped from my Ped Card (As I indeed TT the residue) and refund the 95% items used as I have lost $20 in this attempt.

FYI this support case has been posted on EF link below to see other members responses.

EF link https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/...ajor-tier-upgrade-process-20.html#post2221765

--------------------------------------------
Your support case 177122 has been sent.
--------------------------------------------

will post when I get a response

Click to expand...

Well got a response...

Hi,
Thank you for your inquiry. When attempting to upgrade an unlimited item to the next major tier, a profession check is made against the Tier Upgrader profession. If the check is within the Success Rate percentage range the item is upgraded to the next major tier. The Secondary item (the copy of the upgraded item) is salvaged fully (meaning you get to keep the item). The rest of the ingredients are consumed. A percentage of the TT value of the consumed ingredients is added to the TT value of the upgraded item and any excess is returned as residue.
If the check is over the Success Rate percentage but within the Salvage Rate percentage range the item is not upgraded to the next major tier. The Secondary item is salvaged (you keep the item). The rest of the ingredients are consumed. A percentage of the TT value of the consumed ingredients is returned as residue.
If the check is over the Salvage Rate percentage the item is not upgraded to the next major tier. The Secondary item and the rest of the ingredients are consumed. A percentage of the TT value of the consumed ingredients is returned as residue.
Kind regards,
Entropia Universe Support



guess it is tough luck, I but replyed anyway

sorry but this was not explained in the VU notes, it was not clear that I would lose over $20 of items because of this.

This is a real issue as no-one would proceed under these conditions

It was my understanding that 95% of the items would be returned if the attempt was not fully successful.

This is a real issue and it has cost me real life money due to lack of information on your part, if I had known that I would get "TT food" as a result I would not have attempted this in the 1st place.

can you please look into this issue in detail and check with your people who came up with this system as it is a serious flaw.....

As stated in my original case I would be happy for you to take the TT value of the reside back and credit me with the 95% item restoration.

FYI this is not purely due to the fact it was $20 as you can see below in my transactions I have purchased enough peds to not be affected by this. it is the lack that the information needed was not supplied in your patch notes....


2056039 20 Oct 2009 17:37 Committed Dibs Deposit 9650.00
<Others removed from here >

Parlog said:

Hi,

this is a D100:

[br]Click to enlarge[/br]

in the standard RPG system (usually a dice20 system) the first 5% (the 1 on a dice 20 roll) are the fumble while in our current EU system the last 5% (result 96,97,98,99,100 on a d100 roll) are the fumble.

Click to expand...

in normal rpg , you make a dice 100 with 2 dice 10

Etopia said:

in normal rpg , you make a dice 100 with 2 dice 10

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true! one for the decade one for the unit position, but to not have to explain that first i took a pic of a d100.

kintoo said:

..

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Since you lose the MU of the extra ingredients 50% of the time (and the whole for 5% of that), the chance of losing the MU at each Tier is the sum of 0.5 + 0.25 + 0.125, etc.

This infinite series adds to exactly 1.000.

So at each Tier Upgrade, on average you are absolutely certain to lose the MU of the Ingedients.

Correction: since you lose the Ingredients on Success, you lose TWICE the MU of Ingredients at each Upgrade.

If anyone doesn't understand Infinite Series, here's a link to the ancient Wheat and Chessboard fable.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem

chevrons said:

It's anyone's guess how long it will take to skill Upgrading before these numbers come down significantly.

Click to expand...

Well, now that the skills and proffesion for it are enabled in game my success rate is at 52% and the salvage rate is at 96% (when I click the upgrade button on my OF-105) and I've never even upgraded a single item.
The real interesting question now is what other skills contribue to the tire upgrader proffesion? I'm at about lvl 5.5 in that proffesion. It's listed under crafting proffesions so enginering might be a good gues to start of with

ignore, i didnt read -.-

Last post on this issue, the reply I got from support was

Hi,
Thanks for reporting and helping to make Entropia Universe a better and fairer place. We understand that you are upset about this, and we have forwarded all the reactions we have received to the management and the design team and your feedback will be considered in this process. However, this is an intentional design feature from the design team and not a bug. Future information will be posted on the News section of our website.
Thank you for your patience!
Kind regards,
Entropia Universe Support

==================

So I guess its tough titties

Marco|FPC said:

Well, if you happen to stumble upon an Upgrade Replicator, I'd suggest you don't TT it. ,-)

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Was this bit of crucial information ONLY posted on entropiaforum.com ?

safara said:

Was this bit of crucial information ONLY posted on entropiaforum.com ?

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i dont get what/why u ask that? as u can see it's a quote from EF, and
if u click on that small "triangle" icon behind Marco's name, it will bring u to orig.post

(i suggest also using in search section "MA/Fpc posts", it's a great feature)

figure I'll throw my 2 pec in here.

The actual upgrade details don't matter to normal players only to people who make upgrading their profession. The only thing normal players need to worry about is that their are now different stats for each type of weapon on the market.

You won't be taking your weapon to an upgrader to upgrade it, rather you will sell tier 0.9 weapons for a market price and go out and buy a tier 1 weapon (if your so inclined)

Upgraders will go out and purchase or skill up tier 0.9 weapons, upgrade them and sell them back to the market.

Easy, now the problem of losing an item to upgrade is there so that there are more lower end items upgraded and less upper market items upgraded. Making higher items which are tiered more valuable but the bread and butter will be low-mid items. Again you don't need to worry about this (unless you are in the market for a higher level tiered item) and if you are, well... goodluck, check the auction often and make sure you make a decent deposit.

Primax said:

figure I'll throw my 2 pec in here.

The actual upgrade details don't matter to normal players only to people who make upgrading their profession. The only thing normal players need to worry about is that their are now different stats for each type of weapon on the market.

You won't be taking your weapon to an upgrader to upgrade it, rather you will sell tier 0.9 weapons for a market price and go out and buy a tier 1 weapon (if your so inclined)

Upgraders will go out and purchase or skill up tier 0.9 weapons, upgrade them and sell them back to the market.

Easy, now the problem of losing an item to upgrade is there so that there are more lower end items upgraded and less upper market items upgraded. Making higher items which are tiered more valuable but the bread and butter will be low-mid items. Again you don't need to worry about this (unless you are in the market for a higher level tiered item) and if you are, well... goodluck, check the auction often and make sure you make a decent deposit.

Click to expand...

Thank you for explaining this for all the people whining that its encouraging scamming.

I'm fairly sure that when Marco and Ma are refering to haveing tier upgrading as a profession they mean in this capacity. someone goes to the effort of upgrading a gun etc and then sells it on auction so normal people can buy it and the only person risking anything is the tier upgrader.

Granted this doesn't work brilliantly for more unique items but hardly any of this works brilliantly for mroe unique items. I'm also fairlys ure byt he time a tier upgrader gets skilled enough to upgrade a mod fap without there being too much risk they are going to have a reputation and potentially be trustable anyway. They would risk killing their entire profession scamming.