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Who pays for Ubers & ATHs? Answer:

JohnCapital

JohnCapital

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John Teacher Capital
WARNING: This is my theory based on research, but I could still be 100% wrong. :wise:


So occasionally we read comments like: "He stole my uber" or "she got lucky and hit an ATH". For example:
FrostBlaze said:
Everyone don't get back 100% TT - the decay. Because someone has to pay for the uberloots and ATHs.
Click to expand...

So I got curious and tried to learn exactly which of us are paying for those massive ubers and ATHs. And I think I found the answer. My research led me to search through the massive amount of hunting, mining, & crafting blogs folks have done on these forums, tracking their activity and sharing with all of us.

I also privately interviewed a number of ATHers to get info straight from them.

So who pays for mega-ubers and ATHs?

Short version
The answer is: Whoever looted it.


Long Version
I asked some folks who have had ATHs about their spending/tracking. Firstly, I'd like to thank those who responded. :bowdown:

Of those ATHers that do track their TT spend/loot, Every one of them said the ATH was less than long term TT loss. Not one of them achieved (or would admit to) long term TT profit.

In mathematical terms: ATHs < (Total_TT_Spend - Total_TT_Return)

So even ATHers have lost peds to MA over the long run.

Here's a recent comment that seems to agree w/ this. (Bold added by me)
Makitoki said:
i've cycled 898992.94tt and my tt return is 856250.33tt in the past 12 months and that's counting the ath...
Click to expand...

Note that's a 95.25% TT return over 12 months.

Another comment that echos this concept:

Trina Xenophage said:
Laungsuyar and others... that tower apreciated as It is (yes I do apreciate getting it) Did not even cover losses between end of summer and the first of the year....
Click to expand...


Just so it's all in one place, here's the results of some other long and short term logs I've read.

Someone who tracked for 2 years:
%tt return in 2009, real statistics (12-31-2009)
From the screenie of his spreadsheet
TT Spent: 379,039.10
TT Return: 364,570.23
96.18% Return (over all 3 main activities)

%tt return in 2010 (12-28-2010)
Harmony. said:
Overall:
TT used: 1.133.490,94
TT return: 1.058.113,49
Average return: 93,35%
Click to expand...
Again, results over all 3 main activities

Skippie's How 2 Profit Thread (04-18-2008)
A log of using the famous mod merc
Skippie said:
NOTE: Total after 7k PED of Ammo: -412.48
% of return @ 7k PED of Ammo: 94.45%
Click to expand...

Star's Hunting Experiment (09-12-2007)
Star's Hunting Expriment (II) (04-20-2008)
After you get past the MU profits, these showed even top-level players don't TT profit

At the other end of the spectrum, we have:
Low Level Eco Hunting Log (06-29-2010)
Sabakuma hunts opalo+A101 w/o armor/fap
Mekoides said:
Total Hunts: 105
Total TT spent: 4,768.08 ped
Total TT return: 4,607.82 ped
Click to expand...
So a 96.64% return. Ironically, a better TT return than Skippie's mod merc. (Though the speed difference kinda keeps things in perspective)

1 of mine
You made me camp ripper snappers (07-27-2009)
JohnCapital said:
Overall Results:
Armor Decay = 83.93
Fap Decay = 7.84
Weapon Decay = 674.31
Other decay = 8.74
Total Decay = 774.82

Ammo = 624.87
Total Spent = 1399.69

Total Loot = 1308.02
Click to expand...
So using various eco and non-eco weapons, my overall result was 93.45% return on total spent

5 different weapons against Argos - TEST (01-07-2010)
Various UL and (L) pistols used on low lvl argo (One of my favorite logs.)
Overall, he spent 10,469.94 anf got back 9,249.89 for a 88.35% return

Noiseless Hunting Log (10-26-2009)
noiseless said:
Runing total after 215 runs: -26 172 PED tt (88.69%)
Click to expand...

How 'bout mining?
Project, TT% returns, 90%? (05-15-2010)
Ace Flyster said:
Running Total

Total TT Spent: 88941
Total TT Returns: 76854
Total TT % return: 86.41%
Click to expand...
I believe he's continuing this log back on EF.

vigi mining blog (11-16-2009)
Vigi said:
60000ped - bombs
2658ped - amps
62658ped - cost
tt return - 56 536,51 ped - 90,23% vs cost
Click to expand...

Miles eMining Blog (04-09-2010)
Miles said:
Runs to Date: 34

TT Cost: 6776.24
TT Return: 7414.70
TT Return Rate: 109.42%
Click to expand...
HOWEVER, when you study his log you find this:
Run 29 Running TT Balance: -415.19
Run 30 958 HOF
Running TT Balance: +432.15
Runs 31-34 all 69-80% return

There are other very good logs to study, but you get my point. Actually, I'll let Grave Digger from Warants say it:
Grave Digger got bored (11-02-2008)
Grave Digger said:
Fact:
-u get always back what u wasted
-regeneration of Mob's doesnt matter ,u get pay'd for
-the Loot is in relationship of your ammo/amp decay u used to kill
-Armor decay doesnt matter to get better loot's
-u have same chances to profit as someone with a fast weapon,it just takes Age's:D
Click to expand...

One of my favorite saying has been: Globaling is easy. You just have to pay for it. Seems I was right all along.


To all who've cycled massive amount of peds, and complain they haven't hit their ATH yet, that doesn't mean you're being robbed. Try to track your long term TT spend/returns. If you're in the ballpark of the above logs, then you're just like most of us.

And yes, there are cases such as this: 3 day old noob gets 27,000ped HOF (01-29-2006) That I can't explain. However, the main point of this thread is simple: Everything I've learned says those who've got ATHs paid for it themselves. Your peds are not going to them.
 
If this theory is correct, then any noob that gets an ATH of several K ped should immediately cash out and never come back cos they due for abysmal returns for the foreseeable future.

Assume someone does that. Starts playing, gets 5k ATH within first week, withdraws ped and quits. Who pays then?

Regards,
KikkiJikki
 
JC,
Do you believe this theory is 100% true or partially true?
I think I tend to agree with it to a point, but can't believe that it is absolute.

narfi
 
If this is right then I should be due for ATH very soon :)
 
If MindArk is reading this..

Can you please hold my ATH til after WoF starts?

The semifinal round would be perfect :cool:

Thx, bye :D
 
I agree with JC, this is how I see things as well, we just have to pay for it...


sometimes, there are insane luckers tho.. they should, as mentioned above, cash out and never come back :)
 
Ah the dice has it.... You could think about it as such, I burn ammo to hunt, I burn bombs / probes to mine. I am paying for it, yes I am using a different type of currency, but the actual ped spent performing a bomb or a shot, has to go somewhere. It's all about the splitting and converting of resources from one type to another.

The game has to know how much you have spent and how much others have spent and can combine those ped values together. If the system has been coded to give back 95% of what was put in, 95% of who's money ?

It's like the banking system, you have to be making increased earnings in order to sustain it, due to the lovely factor of interest. Someone will loose out and go bankrupt or have to place more resources into the system. While Mindark drains the system of 5% per whatever.

MA is not going to loose money from this, neither will their partners. Even if systems are breached, the only persons that will suffer will be long term depositors, and only if the avatar that breached the system acts quickly, obtains a large ped count and withdraws it. Even if the cash is withdrawn, MA will check to see if the withdrawl is valid in order to protect other player's investments.

Simple really.
 
I would agree on this 100% if not for the noob ubers on daiki's or exas and noob tower (like there was one at swamp camp few months back was guys 3rd bomb or so).
 
sorry, but have to disagree with your theory ...

What about Stormer ?


And what about an irl friend who started playing the game in 2008. I gave him an tt finder and 100 bombs and told him to go nuts :)

On this run, he found 1.8k belk ... Not a tower, not 27k, but still.

I personally think that there is a loot algorythm (or however you spell that word). So whilst it is extremely rare that somone hits a massive loot after a day or two, its about as likely as someone doing the same thing for years and never hit big ... They both got the same chance with each bomb they drop, with each mob they kill

just my 2 cents

Angel
 
Sorry if I missed something, but we gotta be careful of what we take from the data. You might reasonably expect people who have had ATHs to still not achieve TT profit merely due to individual loot sizes having a large variation, but longterm loot return being < 100%.

It's not obvious that they got ATHs BECAUSE they had lost enough PEDs. Correlation does not entail cause.

It seems people are taking it to mean that losing shitloads of peds is a necessary condition for getting an ATH - I don't think this is obvious from the data given.

It would be great if you clarified JC.

Thanks.
 
JohnCapital said:
And yes, there are cases such as this: 3 day old noob gets 27,000ped HOF (01-29-2006) That I can't explain.
Click to expand...

While I agree with 99% of your thread (and well laid out with links for the lazy folks that don't like to search... :)) this is the only part that throws it off a bit. Any working theory needs to be able to account for this. Granted, cases like this are rather infrequent, but there are occasions where someone can actually go into the black in TT values.

My own belief is that these unusual loots that put someone in the positive are more along the lines of being down to luck and random. If you look at every example you provided, no one got 100% back over time. It's quite possible that a small percentage of what they lost goes to fund these lucky loots. The question though, is what happens to a player's loot after receiving one of these?

The other point I would touch on is that I got the impression that the way you said the people funded their own ATHs, is almost that the money is sitting there waiting for them to be claimed at some given time. I don't believe that either. I think the more negative you get, the more eligible you become to receive a larger loot from the entire available pool.

Almost like the NBA Draft Lottery as an example. The team that lost the most games the previous season gets a larger percentage of balls than the other teams, which gives them a better chance at the first pick. It doesn't mean that they will get it though. Unlike the NBA Draft Lottery, however, if you lose even more, you get even more balls in the machine than before. When your ball finally gets drawn, some calculation gets done that determines where you should be in your loot, and spits something out to you. If your ball gets drawn frequently, then it's not likely you will see really large ATH like loots.

What I do agree with is that everyone should be tracking their spending. It really opens eyes as to where you are in your own loot. I bet a lot of people would be surprised in what they find. No one gets consistently 50% returns, though it may feel like it...
 
For sure part is design

but
it still depends on gameplay imo
sure you need peds to spend to map it out
but there are spenders out there who play for enjoyment who pay
for others to get good loots.
Not everyone is a ped watcher, but I sure am a ped wanter lol

tks for the theory and the supporting data/docus.
May lootius bless you rofl
 
I think this is right for the most part other then a couple people that seem to be more lucky then the rest (alina and stormer come to mind) but they have all spent a ton and most of them have big items that help a bit. I personally feel like I've been waiting for a long time to get an uber hunting loot, but looking at how much I've spent it's tiny compared to these people. I also get about 90% tt return on average.
 
Ohh my thread got quoted :yay::yay:

If you're an optimist you could say the noob ATH's are funded by the auction costs, since there are rumours that those peds are cycled back into the loot. Or from the ingame ads. Anyway i don't think that a noob that gets a 5k hof, will loose more in the next weeks then any other noob (provided he doesn't change hunting style).
 
It's an interesting theory, but there's another way to view it. If it is a simple loot algorithm, a long enough run will cause you to approach the overall average loot return just because of long term averages. The standard deviation is very large in EU, but it seems to follow what would be suggested by a simple algorithm. If you examine the study that was done for that publication a couple years back, it also seemed to back this up as well.

But that being said, even if you were the one to pay his ATH, he'll eventually be the one to feed yours. It all averages out if you put in enough clicks.
 
Well basically that'S what my own tracks also show and many others i share my ideas in this case and make accurate tracksheets. I might to add a few thoughts:

-You can also be paid in advance followed by bad luck later ( happened to my disciple who hit an Argo Uber in his early playing time - so to say MA took back every Pec ). So Noobluckjust means TT profit in the very moment they hit their Uber, but when they continue to play it will even out.

-The variance loot comes differs and can be influenced by playingstyle

Thx for putting this together JC
 
KijkkiJikki said:
If this theory is correct, then any noob that gets an ATH of several K ped should immediately cash out and never come back cos they due for abysmal returns for the foreseeable future.

Assume someone does that. Starts playing, gets 5k ATH within first week, withdraws ped and quits. Who pays then?

Regards,
KikkiJikki
Click to expand...

Most likely the community
 
ATH and uber-loots may be paid by regen. (Except for Argos :laugh:)
 
You'll never be able to profit in this game from TT-loot.

It's all about MU, knowledge and timing.

When in a good hunting period, go for MU. In a bad period, step down a little and minimize your losses. It is not always obvious when you're in a bad/good period, but that kind of knowledge comes with experience.
 
HarryBondHole said:
You'll never be able to profit in this game from TT-loot.

It's all about MU, knowledge and timing.

When in a good hunting period, go for MU. In a bad period, step down a little and minimize your losses. It is not always obvious when you're in a bad/good period, but that kind of knowledge comes with experience.
Click to expand...

Agreed. Money management is essential in EU.
 
hunting for me in 2010 was 94.xx % lazy to cal again like over 100k in tt lose
 
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The best thing about this theory is that it kinda guarantees that people can't fool the system (read it as legion is full of BS). Ok, noob hofs happen, but than again how many of them actually withdraw? I am fairly certain that it is very close to 0 (if not 0). Point is that from statistics view it probably is insignificant...
 
One thing though..

My avatar is one of the unlucky ones. I could agree that i might have to cycle through alot of peds to get back 90 - 95% of my loot but this is also what is putting me and others off.

I spent 1k ped the other day on CP without any globals and the return was around 65%. I have cycled alot of peds over the years but rarely had any HoFs. This is also why i stopped depositing the way i used to do because my return on 300 - 500 ped hunts were always in the low 60%. Sure i could keep wasting peds and camp the mobs and pay for my own loot, but why should i if there is no secure way to know that if i continue i will get back 95% of what i have spent over the years...

How much does a person have to cycle to get back anything... It doesn´t have to be an ATH but i think most people are struggling with getting enough back on the runs to pay for repairs and more ammo..

Am i due something soon, i doubt it, i should have had something a long time ago then if we talk about deposited/cycled peds.

It can´t be that i am always hunting the wrong time and in the wrong place. =)
 
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To some extent i would say you are right, but you still miss thoose "Jackpot" ATH's 76k cald unamped, etc etc. thoose "Baby" ath's you are talking about are often parts of normal loot cyclces being amped up due to bigger mob's or amps, condition etc.

Now the real question is, how much of your peds cycled are being put in to the "jackpot" pool, or even better are there some peds that are not put in that one? Now thoose are questions!
 
Futurama said:
One thing though..

The best thing about this theory is that it kinda guarantees that people can't fool the system (read it as legion is full of BS). Ok, noob hofs happen, but than again how many of them actually withdraw? I am fairly certain that it is very close to 0 (if not 0). Point is that from statistics view it probably is insignificant...

No any attempts to "fool" it would be picked up by MA, and result in the systems change. If the system is too easy to break, MA and all players will gain their average returns faster, make it too hard and they may NEVER break even.

With regards to legion, he picked up on the clock when no one else publicly did. My personal understanding of skillgains, basically it means that there is loot under the ground here, but you need more skills and better tools to get it OR it's the flipside of loot, if a sine waveform is on the one side, then cosine is on the other side, I am trying to explain it as best I can and hope that the point is coming across.

There are like clockwork on average 4 main global occurances per hour, 15, 30, 45 and 60 / 0 minutes. Sine, co-sine, sine, co-sine. +,-,+,-.

Here is an interesting piece of trivia with regards to mining and field sizes. Assuming that it is a clock, we have 60 segments. Minimum reported range of a mining probe is 53m. Make that a circle consisting of 60 segments 60*53 = 3180 /2 / pi (in order to obtain the new circle's radius and we have +- 500m, doubling that will give us a field size of a square km, with 60 points neatly arranged in a circle +- 53m apart.
Click to expand...
 
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I would say you are totaly wrong, you are only playing with numbers.

Its like saying, if you just play the lottery long enought you will hit the jackpot.

If you play the lottery all your life, and die at age 90. Its like saying if you only lived one year longer you would have hit that jackpot.

So the correct anwer is, everyone playing entropia pays for the ATH. Some just pay more then others, because they are less lucky then the one actually getting the ATHs.

Fact. :wise:
 
Kimmi said:
I would say you are totaly wrong, you are only playing with numbers.

Its like saying, if you just play the lottery long enought you will hit the jackpot.

If you play the lottery all your life, and die at age 90. Its like saying if you only lived one year longer you would have hit that jackpot.

So the correct anwer is, everyone playing entropia pays for the ATH. Some just pay more then others, because they are less lucky then the one actually getting the ATHs.

Fact. :wise:
Click to expand...

I am not playing for ATH. I want to learn.....

Ok so you are only playing with odds. That may be true in it's simplist form, but we do have physical coordinates that we are performing actions, you cannot ignore that.
 
Kimmi said:
I would say you are totaly wrong, you are only playing with numbers.

Its like saying, if you just play the lottery long enought you will hit the jackpot.

If you play the lottery all your life, and die at age 90. Its like saying if you only lived one year longer you would have hit that jackpot.

So the correct anwer is, everyone playing entropia pays for the ATH. Some just pay more then others, because they are less lucky then the one actually getting the ATHs.

Fact. :wise:
Click to expand...


Fact: if you can afford and buy every single combination you WILL indeed win the lottery (no need to wait till age 90 and die). winning the lottery and being profitable is on the other hand a totally different story, just cuz you hit an ath doesnt mean you're profitable...
 
My turnover is over 3M peds. My tt back is less than 80% and no I didn't ATH at all (was close one time but still it wasn't ATH). My case clearly does not fit into this theory - not even talking about tt return theory.
 
GandalfSzary said:
My turnover is over 3M peds. My tt back is less than 80% and no I didn't ATH at all (was close one time but still it wasn't ATH). My case clearly does not fit into this theory - not even talking about tt return theory.
Click to expand...

damn you must really like the concept of EU to still be here )
 
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