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Question: Nobody finds this a tiny bit unsettling?

Cerberus

Cerberus

Alpha
Joined
Apr 11, 2007
Posts
514
Location
Sweden
Avatar Name
Thomas Skandis Stale


Any thoughts or opinions?
 
That less Animal Oil Residue is sold via auction?

Hm... nope, because I do not know enough about what it is used for and possible replacements for the things it is used for that may have been introduced lately :)


EDIT: Eye and muscle oil sales have also gone down while some other stuff like animal hides and paints have been sold more... Does anyone know what happened in 2007 btw, since there seems to be a peak for tailoring and coloring material sales back then? :laugh:
 
Indeed, now if the metal residue graph would show the same then it would mean anything.
 
I think most animal oil res is produced by gaining "cheap" crafting skills with stuff which is hard to sell and only at allmost none markup. When tt returns and skill prices suck those crafter may be out of that business very fast.
 
Dollymaus said:
I think most animal oil res is produced by gaining "cheap" crafting skills with stuff which is hard to sell and only at allmost none markup. When tt returns and skill prices suck those crafter may be out of that business very fast.
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I think most animal oil res is produced by looting dead animals tbh ;)

And since you need about 200 PED of it to be able to sell it for profit on the auction, everybody just tts it or crafts with it themselves. So the auction history graph is pretty meaningless.
 
Doesn't matter if you look at animal oil res, metal res, muscle oil, eye oil or animal hides. They all show the exact same thing.

Activity for sales for all these items is practically the same as it was 2 years ago (or even longer ago). Every single one indicates that this sharp decline is at the turn of the new year. In other words, people deserted hunting/crafting in order to invest in CLDs instead. Money wasn't put in, it was just shifted away from actually playing the game.
 
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Cerberus said:
Doesn't matter if you look at animal oil res, metal res, muscle oil, eye oil or animal hides. They all show the exact same thing.
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Actually, Animal Hide was at pretty much the same at the start of the year as it is now. That goes for several other materials and loots as well.

Cerberus said:
Money wasn't put in, it was just shifted away from actually playing the game.
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That people invested in CLDs instead of hunting, mining or crafting doesn't mean money was not put in, it simply means it was spent on something else, which may benefit us more in the long run.
 
Nighthawk said:
Actually, Animal Hide was at pretty much the same at the start of the year as it is now. That goes for several other materials and loots as well.



That people invested in CLDs instead of hunting, mining or crafting doesn't mean money was not put in, it simply means it was spent on something else, which may benefit us more in the long run.
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Check sales, not markup. Animal hides hasn't been selling this badly since 2005, which says a lot about the current amount of skilling fashion designers. This goes for metal res (crafters) and animal res (hunters) as well. Essentially the introduction of CLDs pulled the regular activities to a grinding halt. How is this in any way beneficial to a game that already has such a low population that a single person easily can corner a section of the market?
 
Cerberus said:
Essentially the introduction of CLDs pulled the regular activities to a grinding halt. How is this in any way beneficial to a game that already has such a low population that a single person easily can corner a section of the market?
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Again: In the long run.
 
And I stand by the fact that there's just as many threads about worthless hunting returns, how EU is a pyramid scheme and countless tales of how awful MA is as there was 10 months ago.

If everyone wants to be an investor, then others have to take their places as players in order for the game to thrive. But how are there going to be any new players when most CLD owners bought deeds because they were sick of the core components of the game?
 
Cerberus said:
And I stand by the fact that there's just as many threads about worthless hunting returns, how EU is a pyramid scheme and countless tales of how awful MA is as there was 10 months ago.
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There will always be, no matter what they do. No matter how perfect or near-perfect the Universe gets, people will complain about that.


Cerberus said:
But how are there going to be any new players when most CLD owners bought deeds because they were sick of the core components of the game?
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What the hell are you basing that on? :laugh: seriously, just because people hunt, mine and craft less now does not mean they have stopped completely.

Yes, there has been less of that sort of activity because people have been buying CLDs. No, this does not indicate that activity will continue to stay low now that CLDs are sold.

EDIT: Also, how would that stop new players from joining, even if true?
 
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I think also the sharp decline in the graph right at the end (ie. last change of direction of the rolling avg line) is not particularly meaningful. The rolling average looks like it moves to meet the shorter term line at the end, which is clearly very volatile.

Like others have said, activity has been perhaps a bit lower than usual recently because many have been turning their ped cards into CLD.

I'd be more worried if CLD revenue was tumbling down, that's the real indicator of activity.
 
The only thing the graph says is that there are a lot less people in game than 2 years ago, but we already knew it, aren't we?
 
Jimmy B said:
I think also the sharp decline in the graph right at the end (ie. last change of direction of the rolling avg line) is not particularly meaningful. The rolling average looks like it moves to meet the shorter term line at the end, which is clearly very volatile.

Like others have said, activity has been perhaps a bit lower than usual recently because many have been turning their ped cards into CLD.

I'd be more worried if CLD revenue was tumbling down, that's the real indicator of activity.
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Agreed. The land deeds are an indicator of fresh money coming into the universe. On a weekly basis, no less!
 
Animal oil res is just getting TTed or animal oils are getting TTed so there's not as much oils available to be crafted into animal res.

Why is this happening? Well in order to make animal oils or animal res worth selling at that fraction of a % MU, you need to store up a good amount. People aren't waiting to store up this amount though, because those that like clds would rather tt their oils and buy up some clds at the end of the week. They get their fraction of a % anyway and avoid auction fees this way.

For stuff with decent MU:

Energy & Metal Res Sales:

Little downturn atm, but still pretty high I think. Energy Matter higher than 2 years ago. Metal Res still doing just as well. Seemed to peak around announcement of CLD sales, but then we had that auction bug that brought down the overall average, space bugs, deposit bugs, etc. We still had a peak in Feb, might be wrong, but probably less significant bugs around this time? Energy Matter doing better, so maybe people just getting smarter and using more energy residue instead of metal residue in recipes that can use both.

Stocking animal oils make sense now though, so look for those to go back up.
 
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Ceral said:
Animal oil res is just getting TTed or animal oils are getting TTed so there's not as much oils available to be crafted into animal res.
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That wasn't the concern of the OP as he already pointed out :). The stuff always was mostly tt food unless you're ready to stock up a lot of it and it's tiny MU haven't changed much over time, but still we see significant ups and down in numbers of sales, which logically can be attributed to the shifts in the active userbase's size. Simply speaking, it's an altimeter of the falling sky, and lately it's falling unusually fast :D
 
Svarog said:
That wasn't the concern of the OP as he already pointed out :). The stuff always was mostly tt food unless you're ready to stock up a lot of it and it's tiny MU haven't changed much over time, but still we see significant ups and down in numbers of sales, which logically can be attributed to the shifts in the active userbase's size. Simply speaking, it's an altimeter of the falling sky, and lately it's falling unusually fast :D
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Why look at auction sales of something that gets TT'ed. Why not look at auction sales of something that won't get TT'ed?

The thing that has happened here to affect TT food sales these past few months is the sale of CLDs. For those of us who have a high enough bankroll and cycle enough peds to stockpile these items to make worth selling, if we've invested in CLDs, we no longer have a big bankroll. We hunt, build a small pile of TT food, but run out of peds because we're invested in CLDs, so we're unable to accmululate more TT food to make abig enough pile worth selling. So we either: 1. TT our TT food. 2. Wait for CLD payouts. And this cycle continues because we continue to re-invest in more clds while they were/are available.

Example with numbers: If you wanted to buy CLDs, given the chance to gather 1000 peds of animal oil res to sell at 100.5% or 1005 peds + an auction fee, and not knowing whether that would sell or not in time to buy a CLD, OR being able to TT, buy a CLD for sure get 3-6 peds that week, I know that myself, I TT'ed this stuff, where in the past I would have stockpiled it. And essentially I think this is where the missing sales have gone. The CLDs gave people who would have stockpiled it in the past a reason to just TT it (Due to having a small bankroll) so they could play right away or buy more clds.

I mean look at a resource like narcanisum or niksarium, these resources are going strong because these would never be TT'ed. I bet if you look at anything with a markup that could be considered as TT food, you'll see those sells bottom out.
 
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You realize sales of lysterium are down >10% over the past year? And if you compared march to march 12 months ago it would be even more down.

Also compare the month volume of p4a vs the year. Please tell me that isn't an indication of activity.
 
prism said:
Also compare the month volume of p4a vs the year. Please tell me that isn't an indication of activity.
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The volume of P4a going down is no indication of activity going down at all... More and more Arkadia guns have dropped that often have slightly better stats than their Calypso counterparts, meaning many prefer to pay a tiny bit extra for those instead.

To get a true indication, you would have to look at sales of the P4a and all other guns at the approximately same level.
 
Ceral said:
Why look at auction sales of something that gets TT'ed. Why not look at auction sales of something that won't get TT'ed?
Click to expand...

Because that indicates the relative amount of people saving up things to sell on auction ?
 
Cerberus said:
Check sales, not markup. Animal hides hasn't been selling this badly since 2005, which says a lot about the current amount of skilling fashion designers. This goes for metal res (crafters) and animal res (hunters) as well. Essentially the introduction of CLDs pulled the regular activities to a grinding halt. How is this in any way beneficial to a game that already has such a low population that a single person easily can corner a section of the market?
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You are right, but ... seriously, why would you skill tailoring right now?

It looks like not nearly enough higher level crafting is happening, and as a result, components are not being bought for markup, so the rest suffers. I don't like the idea of having the options of:
  1. TT muscle and eye oil as unsellable
  2. or craft into simple i conductors and residue, and then tt the result
 
I sell plenty of oils and wools. For at least a few %. Hides are pretty worthless. Not much demand.
 
Nighthawk said:
EDIT: Eye and muscle oil sales have also gone down while some other stuff like animal hides and paints have been sold more... Does anyone know what happened in 2007 btw, since there seems to be a peak for tailoring and coloring material sales back then? :laugh:
Click to expand...

I think it was VU9 that hit us in 2007. MA introduces clothing decay and the brilliant thing that low TT value on clothes ment that they where more fatigued. This ment that for high end goods u had to lock big amounts of PED in TT value just to show how the things looked and people stoped using shoes and clothes. I was a clothes crafter on the way up, Etopia was talking about quiting his day job and go for 100% cloth crafting as income IRL, but then ower one night the market for clothes inside EU was cut drasticly.
I remember how I in frustration TT-ed a lot of worthless clothes and giving away others.
 
There once was a time when depos in entropia were on the way up, and locking in ped in various ways was a good way for ma to have depos >>> withdrawals. This is long past. But I think the CLD plague is much more at fault at the present state of a lot of markups than the bad decisions back then.
 
I used to buy it for crafting springs and conductors but since I quit getting any good results anymore I kinda quit buying it...Every once in a while I get the urge to gamble a bit and try for a springs global or two..guess I wore out my welcome globals and hofs on that stuff...I never global anymore on those things...maybe a trend?
 
ever since the first animal res batch I put on AH did not sell, I was cheapest bo for the whole week. I figured its just tt garbage (low mu anyway) from then on I tt it all.

Used to buy animal hides to make textures, but cost of extractors rose to over 250% (I blame carabook hide) so I quit that a long time ago.

Anyway I don't think the sky is falling, its just changing colors.
 
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