Wave Based loot theory

What if, for one moment, all those old timers who saw 'definitive patterns' that pointed towards a personal loot pool were wrong?

What if MA's statement that there was no personal loot pool has been the case all along?

What if there was a theory to explain the wild deviations on an avatar vs another in the same area, the consistencies of loot for single avatars over short bursts of time?

There is.

It's a loot theory based on the sine wave.

In this theory there are 2 base sine waves at play that define a pre-set range of variables. Add into that a hard coded value that is controlled by the Planet Partner, and then individual expenditures to raise probability. Really only 4 items that control loot.

The first wave, the Avatar Sine Wave is a long length wave. MA has stated all avatars are created equal, therefore in this theory the wavelength and the amplitude (distance between two apex points, and the apex heights) are equal for every avatar. The only indpendent variable is what time these waves start, So the difference is time, and only time, between the probabilities of success of different avatars.

The second wave, the mob Sine Wave, is a short wavelength wave. This wave can have different amplitudes for each mob, each maturity, and each activity, and can also have different wavelengths. Thus each mob has a different predictability, but really only 2 values control the activity of each. Wavelength and Amplitude.

Combine the two together through basic sine wave addition and you have a wave that for a particular mob might look like this:



Add a third value, a straight line. This is a multiplier set by the world. The multiplier governs how much expected profit the planet partner may gain. Plot the sum wave (avatar + mob) on a graph of profit vs time, with the peaks representing avatar high points of profit, and the troughs symbolizing avatar low points.

Now draw a straight horizontal line anywhere on the graph. That is your planet partner profit multiplier, or your zero value.

Any point on the wave higher than the zero value equals profit to the player. Any point lower equals loss.

Factor in skills using weapons of different types, and use of armors/FAP kits for efficiency, and you have a complete avatar picture, with some control over profit and loss.

Avatar deposits then only count towards the probability of finding an activity/avatar combination that yields a positive result, and then pumping that positive result until you hit an extreme high.

Done. No gambling. No complicated math. No conspiracies.

This is basic algebra. And it is very simple to grasp. Would it make sense to you, as a game designer, to put together a complicated system governing everything, or would it make sense to you to have the same values for all avatars and monsters, simply governed by time and planet partner desired profit margin as the deciding factors?

Think about it. Each player has 1 value. Time the wave started. Otherwise they are the same. Each mob/activity has 2 values. Wavelenght and Amplitude. The planet has the final value. Where is the zero point?

I think this theory is pretty sound. Any takers?

So this is saying you move along the line while playing? Or the line is time, where as if your lucky enough you can always hit the profit points?


Makes sense to me, but for an aguementative factor;
if its you move along the line as you play, couldnt that be deemed personal loot pool?
And the eco can greatly effect that.

The line you move along is time. Heres 3 examples of how a 3 different mobs with 3 different waves may look when added onto a static avatar sine wave.



How the avatar creation relates to time is like this:

The wave always starts at the same point, for every avatar. This makes the waves vs the designated activities add up slightly different for each person, as the avatar wave peak and wave trough are different slightly for each person.

The player has no control over this, after the point of creation.

I do agree there appears to be a wave-like multiplier that lasts for a short while and is different for different avatars. For instance, the hunter beside me is getting only 50 ped globals while I'm getting 150 ped globals on the same mobs. It's like that for an hour then the numbers change. I'm not saying this is anything more than random chance, but my brain does make a pattern out of it.

I would say... that this theory would be pretty easy to test... just track your loot over a long period of time. If there's really any sine wave behavior, you should see it and furthermore... be able to predict it. If the theory has no predictive ability then the theory is wrong or incomplete.

And if I try and look at it from the developers' point of view... I'm going to be skeptical and say that it's highly unlikely they programmed anything predictable like this into the loot engine.

I don't think Mindark know how to handle non-integer numbers ;-)

But it is a very cool theory! Gratz on that!

Neil Stockton said:

I would say... that this theory would be pretty easy to test... just track your loot over a long period of time. If there's really any sine wave behavior, you should see it and furthermore... be able to predict it. If the theory has no predictive ability then the theory is wrong or incomplete.

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I have a certain degree of background information that can corroborate this hypothesis. I have hunted one particular mob to the high exclusion of most others over the course of the last 2 years. During certain times of day I have a higher degree of success than normal, though that success does fluctuate slightly over the long term, patterning out a longer ebb and flow of cash yield from the mob.

I tested this in the short term off another mob, using the same time of day theory, hunting mobs heavily during a 7 day period to test when I might be able to predict globals happening. I then hunted the mob almost exclusively during predicted high yield loot periods for 3 months. I was able to score a very large hit during an upswing, which also yielded about a half dozen similarly very large hits within the same time period (roughly 2-3 hours).

I shared this theory with others, who corroborated that during certain times of day they could predictably hit a profit margin, and looked at loot patterns of Combibo Young at vu10 Swamp Camp, who also showed a similarly predictable yield of a high HOF roughly every 30 days.

That last part was what got me thinking about wave theory, and keeping rough records of my own hunts. Im not very meticulous of a person, though. So when I ran into something it was pretty much by accident that I observed it may have been working in this way.

So are we back to the part where its "dynamic" yet?

Waves are too easy to track, it need to be all choppy, random numbers ect, or a constant changing numbers code.

But for example, if you look up my hunting drone thread, every run was always about 95%ish returns...
Unless the waves have almost no impact, or some waves make other waves act completely different...
I do have to say this wave thing could be true, howeer extremely faulty.

The only thing i can effectively determine about loot is this, they have 2 loot cycles, both provide slightly different loot.

For example, in the first loot cycle shinkiba will drop more muscle oils, the second loot cycle it will drop more of the diluted sweat.

Basically what im saying, if the wave theory is close to correct, there are MANY more waves, most likely about 20, with numbers in those waves constantly changing in a not so wave way. Aka (dynamic" matter

Sorry for the rambling.

i've held a theory along this lines for years. you ride the crest of a wave and can get reliable returns, or hop from wave to wave (watching the globals...). when a player says "its changed", its because one of the input seeds or frequencies has been altered so they can find their wave anymore. basically you can fit just about every anomoly and apparent contradiction reported into a wave based theory. though it does have a falsifiability problem, because you could just invoke another wave to solve an issue, so it needs care. i treat it as a probable model rather than an absolute for this reason. above all, its dynamic and non-deterministic without being strictly random.

aridash said:

... it does have a falsifiability problem, because you could just invoke another wave to solve an issue, so it needs care. i treat it as a probable model rather than an absolute for this reason. above all, its dynamic and non-deterministic without being strictly random.

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You are correct. That's why I think there are only two wave types that are actually at play. With the mob/activity having its own wave, and that interacting with a avatar wave that runs on a unique time setting, each player will have the illusion they are having their own luck. Some may be similar, others vastly different. Nobody will be the same.

But it will encourage lots of hopping as players come to realize these sorts of patterns exist, and even if discovered since the wave is effected by individual mobs, human nature will push the player to change mobs eventually just to see what else is out there. This drive will become fact when the player hits a downswing on their chosen mob which suddenly raises cost for them, potentially eating up all profit unless they switch.

I dont think there needs to be more than 2 wave types. With 2 types the stage is set. And with the zero value fluctuating according to planet partner desires, it is completed. The wave would be very hard to crack, and each crack would need to be done individually and over extended lengths of time, potentially spoiled by a planet partner adjustment in the zero value.

Neil Stockton said:

I would say... that this theory would be pretty easy to test... just track your loot over a long period of time. If there's really any sine wave behavior, you should see it and furthermore... be able to predict it. If the theory has no predictive ability then the theory is wrong or incomplete.

Click to expand...

i would say it is predictable, but only for short time frames or other limits. ever noticed how there will be a surge of globals on certain mobs? you see this most with event like Longtooth, WoF, a burst of globals in a short period. if you spot the first one (or two to be sure), you can predict you'll get a global on that mob with some degree of accuracy. certainly not exact, but way above the normal odds. you might notice other things like mob x in a period paying 10-12 ped a mob with occassional 5 or 15; in another period you'll see 8peds with 2-3s. you might make some predictions around that. however, the system is constantly changing, so, an hour later (or a day, week, year) you lose the pattern that was established.

Magyar_Republic said:

That's why I think there are only two wave types that are actually at play. With the mob/activity having its own wave,...

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i'd say there were 3 or 4. avatar, mob (or deposit or bp), server (game area) and possibly a overall planet/universe.

aridash said:

i'd say there were 3 or 4. avatar, mob (or deposit or bp), server (game area) and possibly a overall planet/universe.

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Could be. I dont think the planet is a wave value though. I think the planet itself is a straight line, a multiplier the PP uses to control cash flow into the parent company and ensure they are more times than not, running in the green and not the red.

Server/Game area may be a possible wave, though I have my doubts there. I changed areas on my choice mob a few times, more for curiosity than any documentation purposes. The results were similar according to the time of day of the switch.

The time of day, incidentally, was something that I was able to notice because it almost directly coincides with the time I get off work. On days off, vacation days, leave days, or weekends I would notice that my hunts at different times yielded vastly different results. Suspicious, I started returning to areas of poor yield on off days at the time of day I normally would get a decent yield, and my predicted rate of return was back (roughly speaking).

I would be curious if the server/game area had a designated loot pool, which went along with the wave theories and ultimately served to control payout items and types. A large wave spike on an area with a poorly filled loot pool may yield a predicted mega-hit, but it could be mistaken as a regular hit because the local pool hadnt built up yet.

The pool add on for areas makes sense from the terms of land owners too. A land owner who purchased territory and paid to maintain it would be undermined greatly if landowners who did not maintain their land benefitted from the others expenditures.

There may not be a personal loot pool. But MA said nothing about local ones. The best hypothesis may therefore be this:

((avatar wave + mob wave) / local loot pool) * planetary loot multiplier (zero value) = yield.

This wave theory was demonstrated to me by my mentor 5.5 years ago... She took me to the pre VU10 swamp camp and had me kill Combibo with a KH400/104 set up... Big overkill for that mob so that I could shoot and loot very fast... After a while of 'timing' item drops or minis we could 'predict' the next wave peak.

She was highly skilled and used the same method (big weapon - fast shoot n loot) on bigger mobs too.

plausible. I'm not sure I agree with the avatar based part, but definitely with the mob based/(location based for mining)... Avatar based, if it is there is probably something along the lines of for ever x amount of months without a log in chance of global increases by x %. The avatar part is skills, etc., and that helps make the mob based, etc. part go up a little (see COS in crafting)

There's wave patterns everywhere in EU, it seems obvious.

However, that's not the whole truth. I can try to ride the waves, but i can also change my loot directly, through interactions. Trying to be eco is the most obvious way, but not the only one.
If avatars can influence the process (knowingly or not, for the better or for the worse), then in fact we constantly keep influencing each other, even if each individual avatar has a very little influence (well, some more some less).

Fits well with MA's assertion that players can influence the outcome through their interactions. We have tried to dismiss that statement as their weak attempt to fend off the accusations about gambling, but... what if it's indeed a base principle of the system?

Now, if you place both principles (the base waves and individual actions of the avatars) upon each other in real time it will be virtually impossible for anyone to analyze and predict.
The scrambled system that uses it's users themselves to scramble it even further - ingenious and diabolical.

Magyar_Republic said:

((avatar wave + mob wave) / local loot pool) * planetary loot multiplier (zero value) = yield.

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one should factor in the action cost too. so the waves together would become an aggregated multiplier value (with some weighting thrown in there probably) rather than "yield", which would be simply cost * multipler.

mastermesh said:

plausible. I'm not sure I agree with the avatar based part, but definitely with the mob based/(location based for mining)... Avatar based, if it is there is probably something along the lines of for ever x amount of months without a log in chance of global increases by x %. The avatar part is skills, etc., and that helps make the mob based, etc. part go up a little (see COS in crafting)

Click to expand...

I understand where you're coming from, but disagree skills have any influence on avatar success. If they did, Kimmi's results would be way different than they are, and so would Joker's and Dan's. As you can see from the links, these highly skilled avatars have the same loot results you or I would.

I think skills unlock weapons, which allow avatars to explore more difficult mobs that may have a tighter, more predictable loot wave, or may have less population hunting them, and thus a higher likelihood of predicting a loot pop if relevant data is accumulated.

Skills also improve efficiency with those weapons, which when used properly can increase positive cash flow, or more importantly, help mitigate loss during a downswing.

Isn't this a 10 year old theory that keeps popping up every so often.

Magyar_Republic said:

Would it make sense to you, as a game designer, to put together a complicated system governing everything, or would it make sense to you to have the same values for all avatars and monsters, simply governed by time and planet partner desired profit margin as the deciding factors?

Click to expand...

And this part, it can't possibly work with simple sine waves, everyone could learn when the peaks are, and adapt to them.
No matter if they change frequency or amplitude, they're still adaptable to some degree.
I still see it more fitting that they have a stock of loot in their DB (they already have every possible item on DB anyways, why not have values for how much is out there, and how much should be (calculations with playerbase & consumption etc.)), and that "lootpool" pours out stuff accordingly.
And after that you could apply any sorts of caches along the way to gather up loots to be given out at once, and so on.
This method wouldn't be a gamble to MA, since they can't afford to gamble, they're a company.
Sinewaves would be a gamble for them, since players could learn them.

Cail said:

Isn't this a 10 year old theory that keeps popping up every so often.

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This is a PROVEN theory.... well proven to some by few at some point and time in EU. Problem is... you could never REALLY know the wave pattern because of dynamics but if you were good and noticed the "little things" you could do SLIGHTLY better than if you were not paying attention at all. However... IMO this is only 1 piece of the puzzle.

Can the entire loot system be "cracked"? IMO YES IT CAN! (Cracked meaning a non MA employee figuring out on thier own exactly HOW the loot system works with 100% understanding of the mechanics.) Can it be cracked then EXPLOITED by a real person controlling an avatar? Not 100% no.... DYNAMICS are the key. If it changes we have no way to tell how or when, other than it HAS changed but for how long it stays that way before it changes again.... who knows. Really the loot system is an incredible system.

Menace

Cail said:

And this part, it can't possibly work with simple sine waves, everyone could learn when the peaks are, and adapt to them.

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and by adapting you change the inputs to system so the wave changes. say for instance a change to peoples normal economy, like using the opalo or other max SIB... or people camping the same new or event mob...

Cail said:

Sinewaves would be a gamble for them, since players could learn them.

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nothings a gamble for them because they can limit the parameters at any time.

Interesting theory.

I shall ponder upon it.

Cail said:

Isn't this a 10 year old theory that keeps popping up every so often.

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9 Years ago it was beyond obvious that it was true.

Paying out good loots to whoever loots mob X at the right time = random

Random = gambling

wizzszz said:

Paying out good loots to whoever loots mob X at the right time = random

Random = gambling

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Paying out loot to who ever loots mob X at the right time does not equal random.

Random does not equal gambling.

Magyar_Republic said:

During certain times of day I have a higher degree of success than normal...

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And would that time correspond to a peak time when the most customers are awake and playing?

The main reason I don't believe in set wave patterns is that it's too obvious that we affect each others loot. Argos/Drones/etc weren't hunted a lot because they hof a lot. They hof a lot because they're hunted a lot.

Being that my normal play time corresponds to the least active hours ingame, I see the opposite effect. Very good loot is very rare for that time.

However, if we want to look at "waves" then change one of your waves to a cup. Specifically a loot cup, that upon a certain threshold of activity (read: decay) hits a "release valve" and dumps out the excess that's been stored. These "releases" can be in the form of minis, up through ATHs, depending, perhaps, on one of those waves you mention.

Hunters like Pham used to be able to take advantage of this "release valve" move by camping lone areas for hours at a time, pumping lots of action alone into an area, and since they were the other ones there, the chances the big loot came to them was very high, making sure they hit high 90ish% TT returns on almost every run. Of course that was when EU was less crowded and they hunted 16 hours/days. This also explains high hof/uber activity during things like WoF. Mass activity in small hunting locations not set up and prearranged by MA. Yet the high activity triggers the spill overs quickly, but almost never on the first round.

Anyway, any good loot theory needs to account for, not just individual activity, but the activity of EU players as a whole. We affect each other. Thus it's dynamic. Out of any one person's hands.

JohnCapital said:

The main reason I don't believe in set wave patterns is that it's too obvious that we affect each others loot. Argos/Drones/etc weren't hunted a lot because they hof a lot. They hof a lot because they're hunted a lot.

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i'd agree with the feedback loop caused by players. however this doesnt go against a wave idea, in my mind the activity modifies the frequency or amplitude of the wave. the fact that globals cluster in time for such heavily hunted mobs is precisely what convinces me there is a wave like element in the system.

Magyar_Republic said:

What if, for one moment, all those old timers who saw 'definitive patterns' that pointed towards a personal loot pool were wrong?

What if MA's statement that there was no personal loot pool has been the case all along?

What if there was a theory to explain the wild deviations on an avatar vs another in the same area, the consistencies of loot for single avatars over short bursts of time?

There is.

It's a loot theory based on the sine wave.

In this theory there are 2 base sine waves at play that define a pre-set range of variables. Add into that a hard coded value that is controlled by the Planet Partner, and then individual expenditures to raise probability. Really only 4 items that control loot.

The first wave, the Avatar Sine Wave is a long length wave. MA has stated all avatars are created equal, therefore in this theory the wavelength and the amplitude (distance between two apex points, and the apex heights) are equal for every avatar. The only indpendent variable is what time these waves start, So the difference is time, and only time, between the probabilities of success of different avatars.

The second wave, the mob Sine Wave, is a short wavelength wave. This wave can have different amplitudes for each mob, each maturity, and each activity, and can also have different wavelengths. Thus each mob has a different predictability, but really only 2 values control the activity of each. Wavelength and Amplitude.

Combine the two together through basic sine wave addition and you have a wave that for a particular mob might look like this:

Add a third value, a straight line. This is a multiplier set by the world. The multiplier governs how much expected profit the planet partner may gain. Plot the sum wave (avatar + mob) on a graph of profit vs time, with the peaks representing avatar high points of profit, and the troughs symbolizing avatar low points.

Now draw a straight horizontal line anywhere on the graph. That is your planet partner profit multiplier, or your zero value.

Any point on the wave higher than the zero value equals profit to the player. Any point lower equals loss.

Factor in skills using weapons of different types, and use of armors/FAP kits for efficiency, and you have a complete avatar picture, with some control over profit and loss.

Avatar deposits then only count towards the probability of finding an activity/avatar combination that yields a positive result, and then pumping that positive result until you hit an extreme high.

Done. No gambling. No complicated math. No conspiracies.

This is basic algebra. And it is very simple to grasp. Would it make sense to you, as a game designer, to put together a complicated system governing everything, or would it make sense to you to have the same values for all avatars and monsters, simply governed by time and planet partner desired profit margin as the deciding factors?

Think about it. Each player has 1 value. Time the wave started. Otherwise they are the same. Each mob/activity has 2 values. Wavelenght and Amplitude. The planet has the final value. Where is the zero point?

I think this theory is pretty sound. Any takers?

Click to expand...

Sounds very similar to something I posted back in 2006: https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?21946-Loot-Analysis&highlight=loot+wave

Back when the PE core systems were created the random number generators were still pretty primitive. Whoever created the system, with the options that were available to him back then, figured he has to use events generated in the real world as the seed for his random number generator. So.. that's what he did.
The secret of the system is well hidden in plain sight.

Uvas said:

Paying out loot to who ever loots mob X at the right time does not equal random.

Random does not equal gambling.

Click to expand...

Paying out money to whoever has bet on #5 at the right time = Roulette

Roulette = Gambling


And obviously, Roulette = Random, every kid can deduct Random = Gambling from that...




I'd love to hear your (apparently very strange) definition of gambling, but you only post to oppose me anyway, there is no real opinion behind your posts other than "wizzszz is wrong" - i've now given you plenty of time to overcome your little obsession with me, hence consider this my very last warning:

Uvas, please stop stalking my posts, it's really kinda scary meanwhile.