How to calculate odds or chance of winning?

SnowLeopard

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Whenever a large lottery jackpot becomes available, you'll often hear the odds of winning for that particular lottery, such as 1 in 14 million.

What are the approximate odds of looting a CLD? Without knowing the number of players, we can't get an exact number, but an estimate will suffice....

Then what are the odds of the same player looting 2 CLDs? 3? How about 3 in 15 days?
And how fucking lucky (or special) do you have to be to have looted 5 fucking CLDs so far?!?
 
Pretty slim, if it was about lottery odds only.

But if MA "stuffs the land" with CLD's in batches, on certain times, in certain areas - which information one can gather from others I guess, based on observations...AND there are no many miners around... still pretty slim I would say :)

I was thinking by now those 1000 free CLD would be discovered. If not, the chances to get the few remaining is even slimmer.
 
I was thinking by now those 1000 free CLD would be discovered.

3000 -- 1000 for each of the professions: hunting, mining, and crafting.
 
3000 -- 1000 for each of the professions: hunting, mining, and crafting.

There have been 1000 lootable CLD. 400 in hunting, 200 in mining, 240 in crafting and the rest from events.
 
If a player is quite good in hunting, mining or crafting their odds will be considerably higher than a player who believes in luck only.
 
I only follow hunting, but by my count 117 of the 400 are still outstanding.

:beerchug:
Miles
 
If a player is quite good in hunting, mining or crafting their odds will be considerably higher than a player who believes in luck only.

I'm interested to see your definition of "good" for hunting for example. :)
 
i dont know who this happened for or the mob, but if something is in a mobs drop list and someone is hunting them alot, this doesnt seem that unlikly or "lucky". the odds of getting 2 are the same as to get 1, 5 is a stretch but im sure an matmeetician can explain why the odds dont lengthen.
 
If MA decide to add one CLD into fuga loot every day for 5 days and you are the only person ingame hunting fuga, I'd say your chances are 1 in 1.
 
if something is in a mobs drop list and someone is hunting them alot, this doesnt seem that unlikly or "lucky".

If MA decide to add one CLD into fuga loot every day for 5 days and you are the only person ingame hunting fuga, I'd say your chances are 1 in 1.

Aye, these things can be all about knowledge... For example, I've looted two CLD... One from Repesilex, one from Morsusilex. Neither of these mobs are hunted by many people (I'd even be willing to bet less than half the player base has actually seen a Morsusilex, and Repesilex maybe once or twice only).

It was also in the information given that the CLD had been divided between all mobs, which obviously makes you more likely to loot one if hunting a "rare" mob.



I also looted 6 SGA Pixie Harness, all from Cornundos, another mob that not many people hunt (during the entire SGA, I didn't see any other person hunting them at the only good spawn I knew for them at the time).
 
the odds of getting 2 are the same as to get 1, 5 is a stretch but im sure an matmeetician can explain why the odds dont lengthen.

i think that what you mean is that, for a single random event (let's assume that looting a CLD is fully random), the odds are the same, no matter your past loots.

however, this does not mean that, given a number of looting events, the odds of getting 2 CLDs are the same as getting 1. getting 2 is much harder that getting 1, let alone 5.


on a different note, a soc mate just told me this: he recently learned about bitcoins. so he took his plain vanilla video card, and started mining. after 2 nights, boom, he found a block (25 bitcoins, ~2,500 USD). i'm not an expert on bitcoins, but i believe that the chances of this event to happen is more likely around 2 years, rather than in 2 days. conclusion -> luck exists, some people are filthy lucky, we better learn to live with it :laugh:
 
There are 116 friggin' species on Calypso (if I counted correctly), while everyone and their mailman is in LTs+depths+trox.
 
And how fucking lucky (or special) do you have to be to have looted 5 fucking CLDs so far?!?
Very. Fucking. Lucky (special).

Not quite, I don’t think so. Just someone recognizing something about the distribution pattern and having the PEDs and gear to act accordingly. And succeeding. :)

There are 116 friggin' species on Calypso (if I counted correctly), while everyone and their mailman is in LTs+depths+trox.

Hint, hint... :wise:
 
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Hunting theories are irrelevant: None of the five CLDs were looted hunting. Two crafting, three mining.
 
Hunting theories are irrelevant: None of the five CLDs were looted hunting. Two crafting, three mining.

On crafting is a tad more complicated, but I think the dude just went rampage through his bps (which I wouldn't do, since on crafting 1,4-1,5k can be easily lost just trying 10-15 bps, and certain bps, say from vol1 weps are not popular exactly because of this reason). Now mining, well there are quite a few examples of people looting 2clds (3 in this case), I'd be really curious on areas/ores or common elements etc., but no data available damn :D
 
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