Luck vs Skills

This is bound to have been a topic in lots of previous threads, but this has been on my mind for a while.

Are Globals, HOFs etc merely a matter of luck, of skill, or both?

What started me really questioning this was the huge number of entries by a couple of players in Akoz's competitions.

Now, I hunt a fair bit - in fact most of my time is spent hunting. A couple of times a week I will stay in one area, concentrating on one particular mob. The quantity of mobs I kill can be high, and I may global once or twice even, but more than that and I fall off my chair in shock Now I am by no means that skilled, I've been around for about 7 months now play a couple of hours a day on average.

So if globals are just down to luck, then there's little I can do to improve the odds.

Now, it looks like these guys globalling once every half hour (if they were on my FL I'd need a shortcut to type the word 'Gratz' everytime and prevent RSI )- I appreciate they will be spending a huge amount on ammo but I spend quite a bit too (relatively speaking). So will their superior skills be playing some part, too?

If crafting, I understand higher skills will make a difference, but in hunting as well?

So, if skill play an important part, then I will merrily continue slaughtering mobs until those skills improve

Any alternative theories?

globals and hofs are a matter of statistics. are u sure u spend quite a bit too compared to a mod merc or imk2 user? please, use wiki and calculate how many longus can a mod merc kill/minute. u'll be quite suprised.

so u can say is about luck. i dunno actual figures, but for the demonstration, let's say that a global drops at each 1k mobs killed everywhere in game and a hof at 5k mobs killed. to increase ur luck, u must maximize ur chances, meaning to be the QUICKEST killer of a specific mob. which stryker did. that would increase ur chances to global and maybe hof, depending on how strong is MA coffee in that day. now, that means anywhere starting from 5000 peds a day ammo (u still think u spend quite alot too?). here is where skills interferes.

noob me, if would use 5000 peds ammo with mod merc, would useless spend ~1500 of them.
uba rony, as example, or pham, if would use 5000 peds with mod merc, would useless spend maybe 100 to 500 peds.

i think is kinda clear.

/Regards,

K

As I first said, I spend a fair bit relatively speaking. For the weapons I have, the amount I spend on ammo and repairs is quite high.

Anyway, for the quick kill idea, thanx

ok i agree to a point
one kerham vs one pham then pham gets more globals
but there are so many avatars in game hunting
so why do you still see the same names pop up

Its about... KNOWLEDGE

MindArk somewhere said:

The size of the loot is partially decided by the looting avatar

Click to expand...

MindArk somewhere else said:

The size of the loot is not dependant of skills

Click to expand...

Add them together and youll realize that there is a factor given by your avatar with regards to loot, but its not the ammount of skills you have that generate that factor.
Also, its only PARTIALLY decided by the looting avatar..

Next, is globals all down to luck?
Well, if you just roll a dice and hunt the creature that appear on the dice, for the period of time you roll on another dice, yes it is.
If you apply some basic techniques, no its not all about luck anymore.
Is skills a factor with regards to globaling? It could be, but not in the sense that more skills give you more loot from an exarosaur than you would with less skills. However it does to some extent allow you to hunt bigger creatures. The main skills that allow you to do this is first aid and evade, as youll heal better and evade more. This also allow you to kill MORE of the smaller creatures in less time.
The ultimate power however lies in KNOWLEDGE! There is ways to predict what creatures and areas that will give you decent loots. If you know how to minimize your chances of going into an area thats looting bad, youll obviously do better..
Why you always see the same names popping up?
Well, how many globals and hof pass by that you dont really notice? Personally i know its A LOT! And mainly it is because its people ive never met or know anyhting about, so its "just another global". However if someone i know and have on my friend list, ill notice that they got the global/hof...
Of course, some people knows how to tip the odds in their favour and its not called imkII or modmerc

The mob and time of the kill is decided by the avator. (Luck factor X)

The size of the loot is decided by how much hp the mob has. (HP factor Y)

Total loot = XY peds

These are the guidelines I hunt by anyways.

For some examples of X and Y,

X can be as high as 7000 from the HoFs I've tested

based on the assumption that

Y= (hp of mob/400) peds

There's obviously some luck involved. I've recently had a week where I hunted quite a bit and only managed one global all week. And another week where I hunted about the same and globalled 10 times. I just put both down to luck to be honest.

If you want to consistently global a lot, hunt with a weapon that does high dmg/sec and hunt big mobs (or craft big items). Without the skills it will cost you a fortune though but you will global a lot

Maybe with higher skills you would also global more I don't know. Maybe avatars have lucky/unlucky/normal spells which influence how likely they are to global, I also don't know.

The Nightbird said:

The mob and time of the kill is decided by the avator. (Luck factor X)

The size of the loot is decided by how much hp the mob has. (HP factor Y)

Total loot = XY peds

These are the guidelines I hunt by anyways.

For some examples of X and Y,

X can be as high as 7000 from the HoFs I've tested

based on the assumption that

Y= (hp of mob/400) peds

Click to expand...

First off, the mob and time is NOT decided by the avatar but the player.
The loot is not decided by the creatures HP level. If you have tried hunting Atrox old alpha and above youll know this very well.. They drop lower "normal loots" than Atrox Dominant and Alpha...
Generally tho, yes, atrox drop more loot than snablesnots, but theire also liable to drop a LOT less loot compared to what it cost to kill them. The more it cost to kill a creature, the bigger are the chance youll lose a lot of ped killing it.
Also, the loot "formula" is a LOT more complicated than loot=xy
Some things that are factors for certain is TIME and LOCATION.
Argonaut south of hadesheim can be crappy at the time where Argonaut south of argus is good and vice versa...

The avatar is the player and even though the formula is complicated, I roll it all up into X. The time, location, and mob decides X, and Y is the only thing that does not change within the same mob type and maturity.

The Nightbird said:

The avatar is the player and even though the formula is complicated, I roll it all up into X. The time, location, and mob decides X, and Y is the only thing that does not change within the same mob type and maturity.

Click to expand...

You most definetly have to separate the PLAYER from the AVATAR. Saying the PLAYER is the AVATAR is like saying the DRIVER is the CAR!

But the car doesn't move if no one drives it.. all actions that the avatar does is controlled by the player

It really doesn't make sense to say the location of the player has an impact on loot since they're always in front of some computer but it does make sense to say where the avatar is located right?

Still, I won't argue this point further.

Firstly im with nighbird,, be @ one with the avatar .

And secondly i think i know whier you come from, but damb dont add anyone letters into the formula im just grasping it and no more.

The basic formula is, loot depends on how much ammo has been pumped into a certain mob in certain area is it no. so (A) ammo + (p) pumping + (cm) certain mob = loot size

OK, to recap ...

I should kill quickly

My skills are irrelevant,

I need to keep shamrock close, rabbits foot, black cat etc,

and ... er ... be at one with my avatar

However, the MA quote stating that loot size is decided partially by the looting avatar has me baffled ... Maybe what my avatar is wearing has some effect, the colour of my underwear, whether my av danced the pogo within the last 30 minutes?!

You're thinking too hard It's unreasonable to think MA keeps track of these things when determining loot for every mob killed and for every avatar. You can probably assume they want to keep server load down rather than up

Ok.. supprise supprise..
Loot depends on
- The avatar (NOT the avatars skills and NOT ONLY the avatar)
- The area
- The time
- The mob
- The maturity
- The loot pool
- A few other things that i wont go into details with

MindArk decline the existance of a loot pool, but there IS some sort of economy tracking system and wether its a pool of money that build up or another way of tracking it, it sure affect the loot...

My model:

• amount of decay caused recently to weapons used for the kill
• ammo recently burned at the area
• relative skills of the chars been recently on the area
• the avatar luck phase - call it avatar horoscope (it would create
  feeling of success from time to time)
• the planetary horoscope: Big loots come from different
  distributions, and sometimes 50 ped pike seems to be lowered to 30 peds,
  so you do not get familiar minimal global but a nice big normal loot.
  And sometimes the 50 ped pike seems to increased, so you get several
  loots around 35-85 PEDs

Sometimes I get a sense of global happening. I have just burned
PEDs fast enough. The word recently is something like
30 mins - 2h of the cumulated online time. That is why having a pause
seems to drop loots. The average of recent events is quite easy
to keep updated, just impolement a queue, where you add event
ticks on one end and delete them when they get old.

But still it is possible that on some servers there is a different
routine, either to test how to modify the current model or
to verify it works as it should.

Whatever model, it soon alters the way th eplayer plays.
Sometimes I really want to others see that I global, so I fart
out some blood *blurrp*, and there it is. Anyways, it is
completely sensible sometimes to avoid globals,
for reducing costs of play.

I hope somebody sets a robohand clicking spacebar once in a minute
or so to keep the EU client online whole the day, and a digital camera
facing the screen, and capturing the global messages (can be done
by some lab level equippement) and creating logs about global
size distributions. Then we would possibly see (after a statistical
analysis), whether there are planetary Lootius effect going on or not.

The cumbersome arrangement, since capturing the text stream by
a software is not legal? And if EULA does not admit the camera arrangement
with 1 feet distance, maybe 5 feet distance could go?

KapokWu said:

My model:

• amount of decay caused recently to weapons used for the kill
• ammo recently burned at the area
• relative skills of the chars been recently on the area
• the avatar luck phase - call it avatar horoscope (it would create
  feeling of success from time to time)
• the planetary horoscope: Big loots come from different
  distributions, and sometimes 50 ped pike seems to be lowered to 30 peds,
  so you do not get familiar minimal global but a nice big normal loot.
  And sometimes the 50 ped pike seems to increased, so you get several
  loots around 35-85 PEDs

Sometimes I get a sense of global happening. I have just burned
PEDs fast enough. The word recently is something like
30 mins - 2h of the cumulated online time. That is why having a pause
seems to drop loots. The average of recent events is quite easy
to keep updated, just impolement a queue, where you add event
ticks on one end and delete them when they get old.

But still it is possible that on some servers there is a different
routine, either to test how to modify the current model or
to verify it works as it should.

Whatever model, it soon alters the way th eplayer plays.
Sometimes I really want to others see that I global, so I fart
out some blood *blurrp*, and there it is. Anyways, it is
completely sensible sometimes to avoid globals,
for reducing costs of play.

I hope somebody sets a robohand clicking spacebar once in a minute
or so to keep the EU client online whole the day, and a digital camera
facing the screen, and capturing the global messages (can be done
by some lab level equippement) and creating logs about global
size distributions. Then we would possibly see (after a statistical
analysis), whether there are planetary Lootius effect going on or not.

The cumbersome arrangement, since capturing the text stream by
a software is not legal? And if EULA does not admit the camera arrangement
with 1 feet distance, maybe 5 feet distance could go?

Click to expand...

Considering were not allowed to use autoclickers and that people have recently been banned for using clickers and scripts.. Id say your plan is against the EULA, but whos gonna find out?

Information Use

Why not just check the HOF list when you log on?

You know what you can hunt effectively - track them to get a feel of potential "HOFability" eg. Argonaut any level (1k+ PED every 24 hours)
If your viable mob isn't in there (HOF list) hunt it till it HOFs then move to the next in the list.

I hunted Drone 1's for ages when they were due - just missed out. Same with the Umbo female that went for 800 PED...however I did hit a Bery dom for 900 PED that was due...3rd kill