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  1. #31
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    Shawn Thark Columbo
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    Hey,

    BEWARE: some math down there but consider reading my other post containing a way larger data sample than the one beeing discussed here:

    Lemme try show you what whiteknut and I are talking about:

    I try to avoid math on this forum because it's hard for me to be as excact as one has to be when using nonbasic math because I don't know all the terms in english and because people get upset when i just assume for example that when i say avg, that i know it's for an infinite amount of times even though i don't have a sample that seize. But because you insinst, i'll give it a shot and just hope you know what I mean even if i use a wrong word:


    Let's do a simpler version first: 90% Hit Rate (Normal + Crits) vs. 10% Evade, for 3200 trials:

    The cumulative probability of a lower than 89% hit rate is: 3.2% (Your first Test 87.42+1.65=89.07%)

    Addmittedly you are on the lower end of the hit rate scale, but nothing special there.

    Since you are talking about halfs of percentage points here: the cumulative probability of a hit rate below 89.5% is 16.53%!!! It's just not feasible to talk about tenths of percentage points when having only this small of a sample seize.


    Now:
    Doing the same thing (90/10) with 70000 Trials and 89% hit rate results in a crazy low cumulative probability (1.635 x 10^-18)

    For 70000 trials even a 89.8% hit rate yields only a cumulative probability of 3.865% of beeing lower.

    That alone should show that 3200 is a very small sample seize!

    Without going into why comparing 3 highly unreliable samples yields even lower probabilitys of beeing "correct", because the math behind that would be very unreadable without me beeing able to code the formulas in some way on this forum, let's look at the more complicated case with 3 variables: Hit, Crit, Evade:


    So assuming you fired 3200 Shots total and have an avg hit rate of 87%, 10% misses/evades and 3% crits:

    In your second test:

    You had 3205 shots with 84 crits, assuming the real crit rate is 3% then the cumulative probability of you getting fewer than 84 crits is 9.3%!!! That also means that in 90% of the cases you will do more crits when you repeat this!

    70000 shots fired with 3% assumed crit rate and a measured crit amount of 1834 (the crit rate you stated) would yield a cumultated probability of 8.24*10^-10 for beeing lower!



    I could go on and i could also include the way the numbers influence each other and why but I guess since you are quite capable of understanding math and the reasoning behind my post I believe I don't have to.
    I didn't mean to attack you when i said that the sample seize is too small and the conclusions unreliable because of that but it's just a fact!

    Regards
    Thark
    Last edited by Thark; 01-16-2014 at 12:47.

  2. #32
    Prowler bettlejus's Avatar
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    I know what you say Adi but accuracy might mess up with Crit rate, evade rate aaaaand Hit Rate

    I don't think I had that lower hit rate ( only in that hours) because of the game dynamics, it's because accuracy boot.

    We don't know how MA made them

    But what I am desperate for you guys to see is that in 4 hours with accuracy I had no difference in damage output vs normal damage output...and yet in almost 2 hours with Kill Strike I had ( I would say) quite a big difference

    Second hour I only got around 4.1 because of the1 1 minute lag resulting in lesser shoots

    Just give me cheaper Kill Strike nanobots and I'll be happy to test this over and over and over


    Oh, wait, I know, after 31 when I'll get my Laser I'll reset chat log and do all the hunting first with Laser attached then without

    Just let me know what data amount you want in order to believe me so I know when to switch from Laser to normal
    Last edited by bettlejus; 01-16-2014 at 13:05.
    ATH is chasing me, but I'm faster!!!

  3. #33
    Mutated Oleg's Avatar
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    You've calculated your hit % incorrectly by counting the critical hits separately. Your actual hit rate is what you've called "Hit Shoots" PLUS your "Critical Shoots".

  4. #34
    Prowler bettlejus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oleg View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    You've calculated your hit % incorrectly by counting the critical hits separately. Your actual hit rate is what you've called "Hit Shoots" PLUS your "Critical Shoots".

    I outlined them like that to make my point easier to understand but I see to no avail
    ATH is chasing me, but I'm faster!!!

  5. #35
    Mutated Oleg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bettlejus View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I outlined them like that to make my point easier to understand but I see to no avail
    But it's misleading to claim that as your hit rate, especially when you then say that using the accuracy buff reduces your hit rate by 1.5%, which is not true.

    If every shot was a crit, would you say your hit rate was 0%?

  6. #36
    Prowler bettlejus's Avatar
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    your example is not good, but what I am trying to say is that accuracy messes with the slider between crits/miss and maybe normal shoots

    If I have not outlined them this way you would not see this

    Overall the Hit Rate ( the one you are mentioning which is the real one) remains fairly the same, but you would not see the difference in Crits vs normal shoots

    Also if this % Crit Change really adds 1% only to your Crit Rate it means all added up should do 101% but they only add to 100%

    And leaving all the math behind, the only real fact is I had more damage output with Kill Strike in 2 hours vs. almost no damage output difference in 4 hours with accuracy, and leaving the fact that my data are way to small how do you explain this
    ATH is chasing me, but I'm faster!!!

  7. #37
    Mutated Oleg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bettlejus View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Also if this % Crit Change really adds 1% only to your Crit Rate it means all added up should do 101% but they only add to 100%
    It adds 1% to the proportion of hits that are also critical hits (2% without buff, 3% with). It's not supposed to make you hit more often.

  8. #38
    Prowler bettlejus's Avatar
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    yeah, it adds 1% to crit hit by taking adding 1 percent to miss shoot or by taking from normal hits
    But in the end it does not produce more damage per same ped/time/shoots spend nor it increases DPS

    But...Kill Strike does

    I have another question

    Why are Kill Strike nanobots so expensive on AH and Accuracy so cheap? Because Accuracy are better then Kill Strike?
    ATH is chasing me, but I'm faster!!!

  9. #39
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    Wow this is a cacophony of terrible maths

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by bettlejus View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Why are Kill Strike nanobots so expensive on AH and Accuracy so cheap? Because Accuracy are better then Kill Strike?
    I said this before but maybe you missed it. It's because of the candy cranes!


    With my larger sample I now think it works like this:


    Of 100 shots 10 shots miss. Leaving 90 to be split among crits and normal hits. 3% of those 90 hits are crits so 2.7 shots, so 87.3 of the shots are normal hits.

    So:

    10% Evade (90% hit rate)
    87.3% normal Hits
    2.7% critical Hits


    At least thats what my log tells me. That +xx% crit dmg adds dmg is a nobrainer for me but +X%crit chance is stronger.

    I don't like uploading an unedited chat.log but here is my log without any other information aside from hits/crits/evades etc.:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4j...it?usp=sharing

    It seems you can only see the first 19 pages? if you download it, it'll show everything.

    Regards
    Thark
    Last edited by Thark; 01-16-2014 at 16:30.

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