Info: Loot System Exposed For Smart People! (2 years of data)

Have you ever heard of something called apophenia? If you never heard of Apophenia I suggest anyone who has a few min to check it out. I have been dealing high limit dice in las vegas for over 8 years and you would be amazed at the % of people who have come to my table even millionaires who no matter how smart they are have a apophenia experience also known as gambler's fallacy. Im not trying to be a smart ass im just trying to point out a natural human behavior that is inside all of us.

I have my own loot theory and its very simple just like a slot machine in Vegas it pays back a percent to the players. The amount of decay cost you have is an extra expense on your part which in a sense lowers your payback. The amount of markup you find in a sense brings up your payback.

As many of you know me and my friend hunted for over 2 years 15 hours a day with some of the best gear in game. I have butt loads of data, a lot of common sense, real life experience, and over a 100 hours of conversation with some of the top players in this game.

In conclusion if you want to make money from hunting or mining in this game its very simple to understand and very difficult to commit to and apply. Grind were the markup is and do it with the least decay as possible. Then pinch every pec out of your loot. Remember to embrace the randomness just like a slot machine in Vegas and dont fall victim to apophenia.

cool post, but I have to say you didn't tell me much I didn't already know: lower your decay as much as possible, work for MU, squeeze every pec you can. One problem is you mention your friend with some of the best gear... that's the real secret. If you have some of the best gear, and your decay is super low... makes the rest of that equation a lot simpler. I am not willing or able to invest such large amounts to obtain this gear so my struggle is like lugging a bolder up a large hill.
I really liked the way you wrote that post though, even though I say I know most of it, I still come away with a different idea, and perspective... I can look at what I'm doing a little differently. Take a step back.

Occam's Razor... enough said.

But does gamblers fallacy apply to slot machines?? Since they are controlled by CPU.
Same with loop pool, does gamblers fallacy apply here?? Since loot is controlled by MA.

My understanding Gamblers fallacy have to be completly random, like dice or stack of cards.

Maybe the Logarithm in slot machine and MA is big enought to be called random in this sence.

italiancarl said:

In conclusion if you want to make money from hunting or mining in this game its very simple to understand and very difficult to commit to and apply. Grind were the markup is and do it with the least decay as possible.

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Who wouldn't love to hunt with imk2 (or some other nice repairable weapon), mod fap, and high level armor (if not for anything else, to bring regen time down on mobs I need to fap). And usually, if you want to hunt "where the markup is" in the long run you need to be above average (if it would be easy the markup would be somewhere else).

For instance, historically, Crystal Palace. I rememeber someone saying something in the line like "it's easy to make profit on crstal Palace, you just grab your mod merc and go ahead".

An example of high markup loot that people hunt from is the mutated aurli bones, and it seems fairly obvious that a higher level player have a higher chance to loot them (have more bosses to choose from, and is less hindered by pvp zone(s)). Besides the fact Before you can enter the area, you need to kill 5000+ aurlis, and for that part you probably want armor you can rely on being availible and at a low cost, good dmg/sec (to beat regen and to kill off aggred mobs) and a a healing tool you can get as cheap as possible.

If your hunt on CP is more than recreational, you probably also would want a good upply of PEDs so you can save it up in local storage Before making the trip down, especially if you want to put bulk items (like wools and oils) on calypso auction (rather than to storage just high MU stuff and TT the bulk items to be able to buy more ammo).

Another example is regen mobs. As seen on shared mobs it looks pretty clear that to have decent returns while hunting you need gear that makes you take down the mob Before the ammo you spend to beat regen is significant.

A recent guess I have (well something said something that made me Think of it), maybe the loots on regen mobs works so that there is who kinds of loots: One "loot pool" that's proportional to the HP of the mob. And Another one that builds up from the ammo spent on regen. If it would work this way, it would mean for MA it's a zero sum game, for an average hunter the return would be average, but if you're using gear that's less than optimal (in terms of dmg/sec) you would typically spend way more ammo than your average loot (when you get the HP pool back), unless you're lucky enough to hit the "jackpot" from the regen pool; but, on the other hand, Another player with a faster gun can take down more mobs in a shorter time and thus have more "lottery tickets" on the regen pool jackpot.

italiancarl said:

In conclusion if you want to make money from hunting or mining in this game its very simple to understand and very difficult to commit to and apply. Grind were the markup is and do it with the least decay as possible. Then pinch every pec out of your loot. Remember to embrace the randomness just like a slot machine in Vegas and dont fall victim to apophenia.

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This really is the best advice you are going to find, "loot theory" seems to entertain a lot of people and there is of course nothing wrong with that if its for fun but from a purely techincal stand point assuming that the engineers over at Mindark knows what they are doing(and in my opinion they certainly do) you will never gain anything from it.

For people who don't have experience with code languages/coding it is not at all hard to create a dynamic zone based loot system that can never be "cracked" especially in a MMO environment simply because in a well calibrated dynamic system you need all variables in the calculation to get the correct answer, you dont get "more right" with more data, its a Boolean either you got the answer or you dont.

I can try to explain indepth how a system like this typically works if people are interested.(of course i mean a generic variant, i don't have the inside scoop on MA's system )

Best regards
Zweshi

Phantasy

Kimmi said:

But does gamblers fallacy apply to slot machines?? Since they are controlled by CPU.
Same with loop pool, does gamblers fallacy apply here?? Since loot is controlled by MA.

My understanding Gamblers fallacy have to be completly random, like dice or stack of cards.

Maybe the Logarithm in slot machine and MA is big enought to be called random in this sence.

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Kim your sarcasm and pretence I admire with my proposal that "Big Dicks" get it all.
The rolling of the wheels in the machine seldom pay on a low bet, but when it comes to multipliers this is when that action occurs.
Go pump that Entropia rump with $$$ and (remains gender neutral) and the device will provide per Entropia business process.
Buying gear, improving skills has some capacity to reduce cost, but never enough unless favoured or a hungryaction based relentless depositor.
The occasional player now!
Cheers.

italiancarl said:

As many of you know me and my friend hunted for over 2 years 15 hours a day with some of the best gear in game. I have butt loads of data, a lot of common sense, real life experience, and over a 100 hours of conversation with some of the top players in this game.

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should be 18hrs

Kimmi said:

But does gamblers fallacy apply to slot machines?? Since they are controlled by CPU.
Same with loop pool, does gamblers fallacy apply here?? Since loot is controlled by MA.

My understanding Gamblers fallacy have to be completly random, like dice or stack of cards.

Maybe the Logarithm in slot machine and MA is big enought to be called random in this sence.

Click to expand...

My comparison was more on the lines of apophenia and this post was motivated by all the crazy loot theory posts that are making my head spin.

xaph said:

Kim your sarcasm and pretence I admire with my proposal that "Big Dicks" get it all.
The rolling of the wheels in the machine seldom pay on a low bet, but when it comes to multipliers this is when that action occurs.
Go pump that Entropia rump with $$$ and (remains gender neutral) and the device will provide per Entropia business process.
Buying gear, improving skills has some capacity to reduce cost, but never enough unless favoured or a hungryaction based relentless depositor.
The occasional player now!
Cheers.

Click to expand...

Say what.....

Any piece of advice for people with modest pedcard?

Angel O2 Mercer said:

Any piece of advice for people with modest pedcard?

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Find the mob which u can kill alot of and keep cycling.

Went all out of Argos with Arso chip and skilling pyro for weeks, didn't take long until I hit a 700+ pedder young argo

Angel O2 Mercer said:

Any piece of advice for people with modest pedcard?

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Unless you know a good reason (knowledge increases your power) for doing it worthwise:

Hunt mobs that cost to kill:
at the most 1/1000 of the value of the PEDs you have available.

Meaning if you have available 60 PED total at the start
then don't hunt mobs with more than 20 HP.

a lot of us would like to think eu is all hunting, mining, and crafting... it sure is not

Kimmi said:

Say what.....

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I was thinking the same thing but I thought you would understand it. That reply is crazy!

melander said:

.

I can try to explain indepth how a system like this typically works if people are interested.(of course i mean a generic variant, i don't have the inside scoop on MA's system )

Best regards
Zweshi

Click to expand...

yes............................

There is no such thing as randomness when it comes to computer science.

If they used the seed, it is generated from a quartz on the motherboard and that isn't random. If they used a series of "random" rolls in a formula, then it isn't random.. it is just simulated.. and can be cracked, predicted, etc. If we believe every loot roll applies to the law of independent events, then we are kidding ourselves. In its simplest form, yes.. it would be applicable, but just like Craps, Roulette, Keno, and the lottery.. there is always an element of predictable-ness due to a large amount of factors, often too many for those to attempt. What that means to this game is a matter of those theorists who keep trying to crack the "loot algorithm". For the laymen, the OP gives the best advice one can adhere too. Live in the markup world... ignore the swings in the TT% return space if markup makes you profit and eventually you will get a "loot correction" to make you profit even more.

I'd also consider spending more time understanding Bond Theory and how it is applied in this game, then any kind of random algorithm that gives far too much credit to the Mindark developers for creating it. The more you understand the mechanics, the better you understand what might be stealth-fully stealing your money (regen, armor decay, overprotection, overkill, paying markup on the items in your setup).

Read Bond Theory here: https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/...6-Player-s-Notes-vol-1-Hunting-Loot-Mechanics

Input Bond Theory into your setup here: http://eldslott.org/entropia/

Kitch said:

yes............................

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Okay here goes:

A dynamic zone based loot system is based on a continuoisly updating random seed and player input from the previous calculation cycle. In laymans terms every 10minutes or so the loot priority of a specific zone changes based on a randomly generated number and user influensed variables such as overall loot distribution of the servers.

Here is a picture to illustrate how one would go about doing a loot system.

Please note: This illustration does not tackle any of the support functionality that is needed or might exist it only deals with zone priority logic and even so is very bare bones only using a few variables, but i didn't feel like prototyping a fully working system for a forum post, i hope you understand .



Let me know if there is something i explained poorly and i will do my best to correct that.

atomicstorm:
Yes technically anything that comes out of a computer can be calculated and predicted as the butterfly effect is mostly not a issue with a computer. However in a real world scenario like entropia it is impossible to determine the out come of "loot" as the calculation pipeline is completely hidden from view on a server in belgium.

A good example is a 2048bit encrypted file, yes it can be cracked with purely mathematical means but it will take you 100s of years to do so with current technology in which time the information contained in it will surely be useless and with a encrypted file you actually have way more information then could ever be gathered by one group of people in entropia.

Best regards
Zweshi

Kimmi said:

Say what.....

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Says
Nothing changed spend big and perhaps a reward will be dynamic.
'Differential reinforcement of other objectives' to be exact, a very powerful basis to addiction = variable returns.



The nude calendar says it all


[/QUOTE]

atomicstorm said:

There is no such thing as randomness when it comes to computer science.

Click to expand...

There is now. You just need to seed with an external event at irregular intervals. An example would be to include an input from an outside weather sensor (pressure or temperature) and use the x least significant digits. Or in this game you could use something based on player activity (eg least significant digits of the time of the last player login).

Use a random seed in a pseudo random algorithm and get a new seed at short intervals and the sequence becomes non-predictable. An extreme example of this would be to pick a new seed for every call to the "random" function.

Whether MA would bother doing this is up for debate though.

Pew pew!-> Loot!->Pew pew!-> Loot!->Pew pew!-> Loot!->Pew pew!-> Loot!->Pew pew!-> Loot!->Pew pew!-> Loot!->Pew pew!-> Loot!->Pew pew!-> Loot!->Pew pew!-> Loot!->Pew pew!-> Loot!->Pew pew!-> Loot!->Pew pew!-> Loot!->Pew pew!-> Loot!->Pew pew!-> Loot!->Pew pew!-> Loot!

Yes being eco helps maximize profit or minimize loses. There is a negative effect in being too eco aswell.

Angel said:

Pew pew!-> Bad Loot!->Pew pew!-> Bad Loot!->Pew pew!-> No Loot!->Pew pew!-> Bad Loot!->Pew pew!-> Bad Loot!->Pew pew!-> Okay Loot!->Pew pew!-> No Loot!->Pew pew!-> Okay Loot!->Pew pew!-> Fragments!->Pew pew!-> Bad Loot!->Pew pew!-> Bad Loot!->Pew pew!-> Fragments!->Pew pew!-> Fragments!->Pew pew!-> Bad Loot!->Pew pew!-> Bad Loot!

...

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* Bad Loot mostly represents loot that is totally unable to cover cost to kill....but rarely...just rarely...it may be close to the cost to kill, just slightly under.
* Okay Loot mostly represents loot that is slightly more than the cost to kill and only rarely...just rarely...does it turn out to be more than the cost by a huge margin.

Helped you modify it a bit to more accurately represent the current situation?

Doesn't matter how smart you think you are, anyone with any sense at all has realised that any randomness to positively effect your ped card has totally been removed for a number of years now (and those under the hood adjustments get more in MA favour every update). You are at the mercy of when a manual trigger is activated that may turn your returns off or on as and when the fat controller decides you are worthy or not.

Works items, for WOF, any events even general hunting.

In fact the more eco you go, the less your loot returns are, proving without doubt there is no advantage or benefit using eco approach.

The only constant you can guarantee is when the system senses you are low on peds, and will systematically switch your returns to the minimum as possible to force deposits. That alone is proof enough that randomness and the "chance" to bounce back does not exist. It is a fix, plan and simple.

That is why I will no longer invest, why many others no longer invest, and why I will only play to L if I deposit the odd $100 to lose, and then at the mercy of MA how much time they think $100 is worth.

It is why not many chase events, and even if they do I wish them luck selling the items they may win.

Simple as that

Rick

RickEngland said:

Doesn't matter how smart you think you are, anyone with any sense at all has realised that any randomness to positively effect your ped card has totally been removed for a number of years now (and those under the hood adjustments get more in MA favour every update). You are at the mercy of when a manual trigger is activated that may turn your returns off or on as and when the fat controller decides you are worthy or not.

Works items, for WOF, any events even general hunting.

In fact the more eco you go, the less your loot returns are, proving without doubt there is no advantage or benefit using eco approach.

The only constant you can guarantee is when the system senses you are low on peds, and will systematically switch your returns to the minimum as possible to force deposits. That alone is proof enough that randomness and the "chance" to bounce back does not exist. It is a fix, plan and simple.

That is why I will no longer invest, why many others no longer invest, and why I will only play to L if I deposit the odd $100 to lose, and then at the mercy of MA how much time they think $100 is worth.

It is why not many chase events, and even if they do I wish them luck selling the items they may win.

Simple as that

Rick

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Pssst. You're doing it wrong. If you play smart you can play for little or no cost or even come out ahead. Hunting I just do for fun without being stupid about it. But in crafting I consistently profit. Its been a year since I last made a monthly loss from my in game business. And of course my profits don't come from MA but from my customers.

Regards,
KikkiJikki

RickEngland said:

In fact the more eco you go, the less your loot returns are, proving without doubt there is no advantage or benefit using eco approach.

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Is that a fact now?

Neil Stockton said:

Is that a fact now?

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Well the most simplest test is to hunt wit one of the fairly new very eco guns with an old school amp and then do the same runs without using that amp.

Ask yourself this, how do you think a game that only once had a few very eco guns, copes with the introduction of literally loads of L eco guns that many at high level can be bought for next to nothing MU? If you're of the mindset that says the system is the same for all and that eco is king, that would suggest that the 'general' loot output would have to be dropped to cope with much more general use of eco gear.

The most eco you can go is many high level MF chips, with no enhancers, no amps, hunting skilled low regen mobs, hunting 10/10 hit ability. By rights it would be almost impossible to lose with that setup. But lose you do, so your opinion on that?

The point is there comes a time when the game can no longer hid behind smoke and mirrors, because it's used all it's aces, there're no cool cards left in the deck to convince the player there is an edge to gain. What's the next excuse? Using a weapon with zero decay but still lose, what then? The fact is, and its very much a fact, is you can run literally 1000's of ped ammo off a 'single' high end Mindforce chip that costs around 60 ped. So should be cleaning up out there with 300K of skills.

So you may laugh, but I'm not laughing it's a disgrace.

Rick

RickEngland said:

Rick

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Rick your eyes would be a bit more open if you had a chance to talk with the very small percent of players who are making a profit. The changes MA has made over the years IMO were basically to even out the fairness on the grind a bit. few years ago there was a big gap between guns and saving up 100k for a impk2 seemed like an amazing opportunity. Today you have to be a bit smarter.

I would like to point out that you use the word ECO and ECO hunting a lot and in my fist post I never use this word. what I say is "hunt with as little decay as possible". I will be the first to say "ECO hunting is a thing of the past". The new slogan is "SMART hunting". You will find the top profit players not using armor and moving to the mob with the MU as an example.

Well I do get over 100% tt return with my aimk2 full enhanced about 3/4 of the time. This is from hunting proterons where armor decay isnt even a factor. But this is not because of the weapon but by hunting style or method. I have done profit with lower eco weapons such as foeripper but it is about 2/3 sometimes 1/2 of the time. Eco matters at some point but hunting smart plays the biggest factor. There will always be a run where you are destined to lose but you just have to go pass through it.

atomicstorm said:

Occam's Razor... enough said.

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I never heard of Occam's Razor but I googled it and I "LOVE IT"!

Thanks!

Angel said:

Well I do get over 100% tt return with my aimk2 full enhanced about 3/4 of the time. This is from hunting proterons where armor decay isnt even a factor. But this is not because of the weapon but by hunting style or method. I have done profit with lower eco weapons such as foeripper but it is about 2/3 sometimes 1/2 of the time. Eco matters at some point but hunting smart plays the biggest factor. There will always be a run where you are destined to lose but you just have to go pass through it.

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Thanks for the info Angel! Even though I have sold my IMPK2 I still agree its an amazing gun and anyone who hunts and has the money should buy one.

Yes imk2 is one of the best hunting weapon for profit but has its limitations. Just have to choose the mobs that imk2 can maximize its potential.