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Info: Loot System Exposed For Smart People! (2 years of data)

italiancarl said:
Have you ever heard of something called apophenia? If you never heard of Apophenia I suggest anyone who has a few min to check it out. I have been dealing high limit dice in las vegas for over 8 years and you would be amazed at the % of people who have come to my table even millionaires who no matter how smart they are have a apophenia experience also known as gambler's fallacy. Im not trying to be a smart ass im just trying to point out a natural human behavior that is inside all of us.

I have my own loot theory and its very simple just like a slot machine in Vegas it pays back a percent to the players. The amount of decay cost you have is an extra expense on your part which in a sense lowers your payback. The amount of markup you find in a sense brings up your payback.

As many of you know me and my friend hunted for over 2 years 15 hours a day with some of the best gear in game. I have butt loads of data, a lot of common sense, real life experience, and over a 100 hours of conversation with some of the top players in this game.

In conclusion if you want to make money from hunting or mining in this game its very simple to understand and very difficult to commit to and apply. Grind were the markup is and do it with the least decay as possible. Then pinch every pec out of your loot. Remember to embrace the randomness just like a slot machine in Vegas and dont fall victim to apophenia.
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This theory is inadequate. Hint: balancing mechanisms.


Casino == gambling, unambiquously (you can't do anything to alter the process/results).
Real Life =/= gambling. A certain person can take it as a gamble, and there's a lot of randomness/luck involved, but as the process and it's results can be intentionally altered in a multitude of ways, the gambling definition does not apply.
EU =/= gambling. For the same reasons as RL.
 
Fifth said:
This theory is inadequate. Hint: balancing mechanisms.


Casino == gambling, unambiquously (you can't do anything to alter the process/results).
Real Life =/= gambling. A certain person can take it as a gamble, and there's a lot of randomness/luck involved, but as the process and it's results can be intentionally altered in a multitude of ways, the gambling definition does not apply.
EU =/= gambling. For the same reasons as RL.
Click to expand...

Its very simple the system pays back a % just like a slot machine in Vegas. The reason for my thread is to show how simple it really is im not going to argue about if calypso is split into servers, hunting at night is better then in the day, mining under water is better, team hunting tricks the system, drop a bomb every 45 min, ex ex ex. Thats why I said this theory is for smart people ;)
 
italiancarl said:
Its very simple the system pays back a % just like a slot machine in Vegas.
Click to expand...
No, it doesn't. If it would be that simple the whole game would be pointless.

I can't read your mind, so i can't say if u know about things i describe below (most likely you do) or u expect us to know it (most likely yes, that's the case). However, u should also think about people who will read this thread "as is". For them your theory says "go away this game is pointless". Well, this is not right, it will paint a totally wrong picture about this game. Hope u can see that.

Don't get me wrong, there's only one profession where guaranteed profit is possible - trading. Everywhere else you can only increase your odds by a reasonable degree using the "tools" at your disposal, but there's always factors you can't control, eg for a hunter decay is a "tool" that can be used to trigger globals, or to generate nothing but decay - depending on other factors ("right time, right place")... etc.

However, if some hunter finds a way to make guaranteed profit, from the standpoint of the game concept this is a bug/exploit and should be fixed asap.*

The opposite extreme is to say there's no way to influence the outcome at all. I would say calling those ppl "smart" is an overestimate. "Lazy" and "stupid" would be more appropriate. :cowboy:

_________
* Disclaimer: Like Rick already noticed :D - there's indeed now a balancing mechanism for L weapons that will compensate for the MU paid. The overall effect of this mechanism might not be big enough thou to dethrone the most eco UL guns, MM and IMPK2. The difference that once was huge has decreased somewhat, but it's still there. Means, here we have another exception to the rule (besides trading).
 
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Fifth said:
No, it doesn't. If it would be that simple the whole game would be pointless.

I can't read your mind, so i can't say if u know about things i describe below (most likely you do) or u expect us to know it (most likely yes, that's the case). However, u should also think about people who will read this thread "as is". For them your theory says "go away this game is pointless". Well, this is not right, it will paint a totally wrong picture about this game. Hope u can see that.

Don't get me wrong, there's only one profession where guaranteed profit is possible - trading. Everywhere else you can only increase your odds by a reasonable degree using the "tools" at your disposal, but there's always factors you can't control, eg for a hunter decay is a "tool" that can be used to trigger globals, or to generate nothing but decay - depending on other factors ("right time, right place")... etc.

However, if some hunter finds a way to make guaranteed profit, from the standpoint of the game concept this is a bug/exploit and should be fixed asap.*

The opposite extreme is to say there's no way to influence the outcome at all. I would say calling those ppl "smart" is an overestimate. "Lazy" and "stupid" would be more appropriate. :cowboy:

_________
* Disclaimer: Like Rick already noticed :D - there's indeed now a balancing mechanism for L weapons that will compensate for the MU paid. The overall effect of this mechanism might not be big enough thou to dethrone the most eco UL guns, MM and IMPK2. The difference that once was huge has decreased somewhat, but it's still there. Means, here we have another exception to the rule (besides trading).
Click to expand...

if you choose to over complicate the system its your choice.
 
italiancarl said:
if you choose to over complicate the system its your choice.
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My choice is NOT to play this game as a lottery. I'm fighting hard every day to stay afloat and i've doing it since the beginning of this year without deposits. I've been #1x hunter while doing it (between #10 and #20), if u add up my globals/hofs you get the idea how much i've been cycling. I'm not a trader, and i'm using L weapons bought from the AU the whole time.
Have made 2 depos during that time but those were used up right there to buy new toys (Shadow Thighs and Stark 147 ME), not to increase my liquid-ped bankroll.

Your theory says this is not possible, the system should have pushed me back to the 95% return long time ago. But i'm still here, still walking on the water and i'm not the only one. I know other ppl who have succeeded in this for extended periods, not using uber gear or exploits. Eventually they have burned their fingers and falled, and so will i, i know this. But those examples are enough to prove - there's something missing from your theory.

This is NOT a game for hopeless gambling addicts only, and it's NOT governed only by the laws of the casino. Looks like i've ruined your nice and simple theory. Sry for that. Maybe improve it a little? or make a new one? :smoke:
 
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Kimmi said:
But does gamblers fallacy apply to slot machines?? Since they are controlled by CPU.
Same with loop pool, does gamblers fallacy apply here?? Since loot is controlled by MA.

My understanding Gamblers fallacy have to be completly random, like dice or stack of cards.

Maybe the Logarithm in slot machine and MA is big enought to be called random in this sence.
Click to expand...


Cards become less and less random as they are dealt. This is why players have a slight advantage over the house in Blackjack.
 
italiancarl said:
what I say is "hunt with as little decay as possible".
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When you say "decay" do you mean actual decay? Or do you mean all costs? I ask because some weapons are relatively good in terms damage per pec but are decay heavy. Some guns are more decay heavy and light on ammo usage.... And then we have melee items, the Archon sword for example and obviously that's 100% decay. Over the years we have seen more and more weapons that are increasingly decay heavy and progressively lighter and lighter on ammo consumption.

Items that are 100% decay tend to run interference on theories that include loot returns as directly correlating to ammo usage. Originally I think it played a factor, many years ago, but not anymore. It to a degree is possible with decay-only items following a different model, but theories along this line tend to be thin. I understand that Marco all those years ago said decay is allocated as profit for MA which directly implied that ammo and TT consumption get cycled through the loot system. Also back then MA didn't operate on a fractional reserve and 100% of our collective TT value was kept on hand at all times.

Over the years with all the changes it gets harder and harder to ascertain how PEDs flow though the system and where they get distributed.

Hunting smart, which includes many things, is the key.

italiancarl said:
You will find the top profit players not using armor and moving to the mob with the MU as an example.
Click to expand...

Realize though that unless you are using an Adj/Imp/Mod Omegaton FAP, the armor decay is CHEAPER then heal tool decay in almost every scenario.
 
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Angel said:
This is from hunting proterons where armor decay isnt even a factor.
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Some year ago, the proterons were changed to deal more damage, on the request from ubers because they were "too easy" (for mid-level players).

Nuff said.

(On me (ghost+5b) they deal around 70 dmg hits and frequent enough to bee too much hard work. I rather hunt SEGs or even falx. I should add my best repairable fap is T3 2600. Right now I use XI(L) heal chip.)
 
aia said:
Some year ago, the proterons were changed to deal more damage, on the request from ubers because they were "too easy" (for mid-level players).

Nuff said.

(On me (ghost+5b) they deal around 70 dmg hits and frequent enough to bee too much hard work. I rather hunt SEGs or even falx. I should add my best repairable fap is T3 2600. Right now I use XI(L) heal chip.)
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I think his point is that by using the gun he use, the proterons dont hit him, thats why armor decay aint even on the table to consider.
 
I think the real reason that Proteron and also Leviathan were rebalanced to do more damage is because too many people were hunting them. This means that other things weren't getting hunted and it was throwing off the balance of some stuff.
 
Fifth said:
My choice is NOT to play this game as a lottery. I'm fighting hard every day to stay afloat and i've doing it since the beginning of this year without deposits. I've been #1x hunter while doing it (between #10 and #20), if u add up my globals/hofs you get the idea how much i've been cycling. I'm not a trader, and i'm using L weapons bought from the AU the whole time.
Have made 2 depos during that time but those were used up right there to buy new toys (Shadow Thighs and Stark 147 ME), not to increase my liquid-ped bankroll.

Your theory says this is not possible, the system should have pushed me back to the 95% return long time ago. But i'm still here, still walking on the water and i'm not the only one. I know other ppl who have succeeded in this for extended periods, not using uber gear or exploits. Eventually they have burned their fingers and falled, and so will i, i know this. But those examples are enough to prove - there's something missing from your theory.
Click to expand...

Bro you disagreeing with me and then confirming my theory. I read your post 5 times and let me translate what you are saying in your post...

You made 2 deposit bout L gear hunted hard core for 4 months and are breaking even and you know other people who have done the same but eventually lost there money and that you know the same will happen to you.

How does that not support my theory correct me if im wrong!!!!
 
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italiancarl said:
Bro you disagreeing with me and then confirming my theory. I read your post 5 times and let me translate what you are saying in your post...

You made 2 deposit bout L gear hunted hard core for 4 months and are breaking even and you know other people who have done the same but eventually lost there money and that you know the same will happen to you.

How does that not support my theory correct me if im wrong!!!!
Click to expand...
You're saying 4 months cycling the amount of peds i have cycled is too small sample size to prove i have surpassed my personal good luck/bad luck cycles? Indeed, there's no way to prove this.
Althou, i believe have a fairly good idea about the sine waves of good/bad luck. For the previous years the only time when i was able to break even or even make a profit was during these good loot periods.
Now, look at this:
Doer said:
(where "time" can be and probably is looting events rather than seconds/minutes/hours/days)
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Comparing with my experience with those sine waves in the past it seems i have gone through 2 cycles by now, maybe more. Then again, maybe what i'm experiencing is just one massive good luck period? Indeed, no way to tell it for sure.

Anyway, what i can't prove but what i believe: the statistical probabilities is not what this game is all about. The basic casino system u are describing is real but it's only the initial setup, the general "background". This is not where the game ends, that's where the real game starts. Instead of passively waiting for "the big one" there's ways to actively influence the process.
Yes, you are fighting against the impossible odds, you will be risking everything. Yes, at times it will scare the shit out of you. Yes, eventually you will fail. So fraking what lol


Now, if there is this game inside game it will inevitably have it's winners and losers. However, nobody likes to be a loser, that's the basic human nature. Easiest way to avoid facing the fact you might be a loser is to say there's no game, nothing but the all-powerful statitical probabilities. If there's no game there's no winners, and no losers. Everybody's happy. Gotta love the happy endings! :smoke:
 
Fifth said:
You're saying 4 months cycling the amount of peds i have cycled is too small sample size to prove i have surpassed my personal good luck/bad luck cycles? Indeed, there's no way to prove this.
Althou, i believe have a fairly good idea about the sine waves of good/bad luck. For the previous years the only time when i was able to break even or even make a profit was during these good loot periods.
Now, look at this: Comparing with my experience with those sine waves in the past it seems i have gone through 2 cycles by now, maybe more. Then again, maybe what i'm experiencing is just one massive good luck period? Indeed, no way to tell it for sure.

Anyway, what i can't prove but what i believe: the statistical probabilities is not what this game is all about. The basic casino system u are describing is real but it's only the initial setup, the general "background". This is not where the game ends, that's where the real game starts. Instead of passively waiting for "the big one" there's ways to actively influence the process.
Yes, you are fighting against the impossible odds, you will be risking everything. Yes, at times it will scare the shit out of you. Yes, eventually you will fail. So fraking what lol


Now, if there is this game inside game it will inevitably have it's winners and losers. However, nobody likes to be a loser, that's the basic human nature. Easiest way to avoid facing the fact you might be a loser is to say there's no game, nothing but the all-powerful statitical probabilities. If there's no game there's no winners, and no losers. Everybody's happy. Gotta love the happy endings! :smoke:
Click to expand...

Well I did say my theory was for smart people... :scratch2:
 
@DoA

This is just for you DoA, as you are so special to us all! :yay:

No buffs were used in the production of this particular post!
 
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