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CLD vs AUD: A comparison

JohnCapital

JohnCapital

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Just a simple comparison of CLDs and AUDs to see how they really compare in terms of ROI.

  • CLD initial price: 1,000
  • AUD initial price: 50
  • AUD:CLD ratio = 20:1 (20 AUD = 1 CLD in raw price)
  • CLD payment time: weekly
  • AUD payment time: daily
So AUDs payout out more often, meaning less per pay, plus they cost 1/20 of CLDs.

  • Average weekly CLD payment: 4.33 (based on current stats from the CLD ROI tracker thread spreadsheet)
  • Average daily AUD payment: 0.01 (Based on my observations of my AUDs.)
To make AUD payments more visually comparable to CLD, the math is simple:

0.01 x 7 x 20 = 1.40 (payout of 20 AUDs over 1 week)

4.33/1.40 = almost exactly 3

So in terms of payments received, CLDs are almost exactly 3 times better than AUDs, given current playing activity within the respective locations.

There you go. Sellers/buyers, please adjust your spending habits accordingly.

AUDs still give a nice return, in terms of ROI (~7.25% yearly return vs 23% for CLD). I think the reason AUDs get a bad rap is a few reasons I mentioned above: Seemingly poor payments due to frequency + investment cost each (only 50 ped/$5 USD). However, once looked at in a realistic fashion, I think both CLDs and AUDs are not too bad of an investment, even by RL standards.

I suspect that if you bought a single stock of some company, the quarterly payment would look mighty pitiful if it were dribbled out each and every day. However, in the end, that stock might still be worth holding onto.

Thank you.

Disclaimer: I'm not actively buying nor selling either AUDs, nor CLDs. I might sell mine, maybe. I might buy more, maybe. This thread is NOT designed to affect market numbers for my advantage. Only to offer my personal opinion based on the numbers I see.
 
I agree... the daily income makes it look like it's much less than it really is. I guess there's a reason why RL investments don't pay out interest in a daily fashion :)

I do like the daily payout though. It is cool to have an ATH then see your payout jump up a couple of pecs for that day. With CLDs, the income is more removed... as I understand it, it's a share of overall planet revenue from multiple sources, some of which might be unknown.
 
2 Observations primarily

1. When we are comparing AUD vs CLD , it is sort of unfair to take avg of CLD which is much higher then what it has been delivering of late. Primarily because the peak season for AUD ( dec-jan) is yet to come. Hence the comparison to an extent becomes biased.

2. The avg for aud i think is above 1 pec/day, closer to 1.5 i would imagine. Big difference between 1 and 1.5 though it might seem miniscule.

Overall, I agree with the OP tho that the aud is overpriced by a fair margin. The point in favour of aud is the fact that it has low starting investment which makes it attractive to a bigger crowd.


:twocents:
 
Divinity said:
it is sort of unfair to take avg of CLD which is much higher then what it has been delivering of late.
Click to expand...

I used the overall average taken from the CLD spreadsheet in the above linked thread. That number was the total payment since the beginning of payouts divided by the number of weeks since it started. (558.76 peds /129 weeks)

If that's not the definition of average, I don't know what is.

However, you may very well be right about the AUD. I don't have hard numbers on that at the moment, so had to take a guess.
 
Kind of like apples and oranges really... clds are a % of a planets income including income from avatars on other planets. auds are a % of taxes on one big LA with some instances in it.

Yes, both have their uses and are probably ok investments long-term.

You are right CLDs are paying out more RIGHT NOW... but that does not mean that they will forever. They likely will since they are a % of income from an entire planet's population, including the income from decay of folks from Calypso that are in the Arkadia Underground creating taxes on those auds, but over time you never know what may happen in the future... that's why speculation is such a fun little game.

I personally am spending what I want to invest on the deeds half on clds and half on auds since it is nice to get a few pecs daily in case I log in more than once a week. Time will tell if more investment opportunities come in the future. I suspect Mindark is going to allow all PPs to do something similar at some point in the future... RT has bananas but I don't think that's quite the same thing. Only planet that probably won't have much potential is the dead next island, unless Mindark does something similar to the CLD thing with that to allow players to buy it out since the real pp owner of that place isn't updating things at the moment.

What's nice about the auds is that it allows more average income participants the ability to get in on the fun, not just the folks with big pedcards that are sitting around watching auctions or hiring automated script bots to do so for them. That puts a whole new twist on the investment opportunities in game that has never really existed 'officially' previous to the introduction of the auds.
 
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The initial price for the whole package was too high imho. A land area doesn't cost that much, but maybe the small investors will eventually buy all the deeds up, time will tell.
 
JohnCapital said:
I used the overall average taken from the CLD spreadsheet in the above linked thread. That number was the total payment since the beginning of payouts divided by the number of weeks since it started. (558.76 peds /129 weeks)

If that's not the definition of average, I don't know what is.

However, you may very well be right about the AUD. I don't have hard numbers on that at the moment, so had to take a guess.
Click to expand...

I believe this may be what your looking for...

http://arkadiaforum.com/showthread.php?10210-Arkadian-Underground-Deed-(AUD)-Payout-History

(Though it might be lagging behind by a few days of updates.)

------

And to add a hypothetical perspective to it...

Let's say you have 1200 peds on hands right now.

It allows you to buy 1 CLD at ~1186 peds b/o (from what I could tell just now via calypso auctions) OR it might get you ~25 AUDs (at perhaps 48 peds per deed? Maybe cheaper?)

So assuming "Average ROI 2014 based on markup: 9.6011111111111 %" is correct, then we will roughly be expecting like 0.01315 peds per AUD per day.

Extrapolate that to a week and for 25 AUDs, then we get something like 2.30 PEDs.

How's that for comparison?

------------------

And if we push it a little bit further, lets say some "dumb" guy sells you his AUDs at 40 PEDs each and so with 1200 peds, you get 30 AUDs.

With 30 AUDs and at 0.01315 peds per day, per deed, then you'll be getting like 2.76 PEDs now. (Starting to get real close and decent to that CLD payout now huh?)

Drop it to 30 PEDs, and you get 40 AUDs.

With that, each week you could be expecting 3.68 PEDs. (Tasty now?)

I suppose you know where I'm driving at huh?

(But of course, hopefully no one's that silly to be selling at 30 PEDs, I hope. Think things through before you touch that ped card of yours...or do anything silly with your own stuff. Lest you come to regret what you did.)
 
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JohnCapital said:
I used the overall average taken from the CLD spreadsheet in the above linked thread. That number was the total payment since the beginning of payouts divided by the number of weeks since it started. (558.76 peds /129 weeks)

If that's not the definition of average, I don't know what is.

However, you may very well be right about the AUD. I don't have hard numbers on that at the moment, so had to take a guess.
Click to expand...

My point was you are taking the avg for CLD ( which is correct imo) and comparing it with AUD (whose avg is not known yet as due to small sample size of time) and that was the unfair bit. We need more time to see what happens to AUD payouts but as i said earlier, I have little hopes for aud getting anywhere..
 
Maybe the average CLD payout from the last 12 month would reflect the current payouts better. While CLD's are backed by the whole calypso population in terms of revenue, AUD's arn't. It is also too early to make a prognosis about the annual ROI or Aud's. It is perfectly possible the ROI will drop below 7.3% this year. Also, right now i can't obtain CLD's for 1000 ped each unless i make an offer to buy a few K and i dont need to pay 50 ped for an AUD anymore since ive seen sellers offer them for less.


This points may pay into spending habits, however you are generaly right that cld's outperform auds right now.
From my stomach feeling i deem aud's allready a bad investment. It might take 20 years and longer to get my initial investment back while im inable to sell the auds for the price i bought them to bail off. After all its just one overpriced LE and maybe a single FOMA dome does better than this one million LE (my personal opinion not based on facts)

Aud's might become better if the population of Arkadia raises and the underground is getting used more. But right now its a super high risk investment and the payouts dosn't reflect that risk properly. If you can speak of trends allready auds may end up giving 4 - 5 pec weekly but in a few months we will know better.
 
Welcome to stock technical analysis...a simple average is never enough...the best is to use a Moving Average (MA) other indicators.

The average is very basic, some would say too basic. An MA is basically the average of the price of a stock or the dividends paid over a window of days. So instead of taking the whole 159 days, you make a graph using a window of say 1 month (4 weeks). If you use the last 1 month that is a better average as it is closer to the current time.

Of course, as with stocks, history and current price does not give any indication on the future!
 
Anyone know if someone have kept track of AUD revenue? What is the average so far?
How does AUD compare now vs CLD at 1400 and AUD at say 44?
 
Cld is much better hands down.

aud will produce 1 pec per 1-4 days.... The norm is 1 pec per deed every other day. i dont know the running actual total tho.
 
Unvinsible said:
Anyone know if someone have kept track of AUD revenue? What is the average so far?
How does AUD compare now vs CLD at 1400 and AUD at say 44?
Click to expand...

Have you checked Arkadiaforum.com? I doubt anyone would track it on this forum.

I'd be interested in the results though.
 
Mega said:
I'm not fully up to speed on AUD, do you know if all 200k have been sold ? (just out of interest)
Click to expand...

I don't think they have been sold out, not payed much attention tho, someone might know better. Very suprised if they have.
Ill give what I calculated if your interested:

13.53% this year on cld at 1400. (from cld thread)
And if my math is correct AUD at 44 ped gives only 7.2%
AUD gives same ROI as cld this year first at 23.46 ped.
 
Unvinsible said:
I don't think they have been sold out, not payed much attention tho, someone might know better. Very suprised if they have.
Ill give what I calculated if your interested:

13.53% this year on cld at 1400. (from cld thread)
And if my math is correct AUD at 44 ped gives only 7.2%
AUD gives same ROI as cld this year first at 23.46 ped.
Click to expand...

Id rather buy CLD or AUD over Twitter / Facebook shares over the medium term, just my own personal feeling.
 
Mega said:
Id rather buy CLD or AUD over Twitter / Facebook shares over the medium term, just my own personal feeling.
Click to expand...

Not sure where you got that from, but I think twitter/facebook is a bad investment long term
 
Small headsup

Hi all,

i tracked the last 2 days (9. - 10.01.2016) on my AUD's

It been on 9.1. 2 pec per AUD dayrevenue
It been on 10.1. 3 pec per AUD dayrevenue

Today i will see what the 10. - 11. daychange got me in revenue.

For me, i do gamble and bet on AUD. I hope Arkadia Underground will expand in future and population of ARK raises and Ark Underground will get also bigger and more features ie more instances.
What i saw over the years of Arkadia is, the planet is well implementet in planet calypso universe.

Why no CLD's ? Cause the MU is way too high atm ( initial 1k ped/deed, MU atm around 1.85 K) and the chance it will grow hmm not anymore too much. AUD you get likewise for TT (50 Ped one deed is like buying them directly in web shop). Here it maybe has a good range in MU developement. MU info shows slightly rising, over time constantly.

Greetings
RCS
 
4.33 is a high payout for CLD. I believe its more in line with 3 ped a week on average.

That said, aud is paying 3x for several days, minimum 2x since the beginning of the year.

CLD is going for 1850
you can get 37 AUD for one cld.

1 cld this week paid 4.33 ped.
37 AUD this week paid 5.92 ped in comparison (5 days at .74 and 2 at 1.11)

Again, its a high week for CLD, so AUD at current pace is better, at current rates.
 
To add some more accurate data on payouts. Last year a single cld paid out 191ped and a single aud 3.98ped. Those are probably more accurate figures to use to compare than just the last week if you're considering a long term investment.
 
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If ROI of AUD stays at 2 pec/deed/day it'll be like 7,3 ped per AUD per anno.

3 pec/day/deed is like 10.95 ped per AUD per anno.

1 pec .... 3.65 ped/anno/deed.

As daily return is variable, id use a mixed calculation, btw somewhat of a middle value for 3 deed volume stock.

7,3+10,95+3,65= 21,9/3 = 7.3 ! :D i see as a middle value.

10 days 1 pec 10x1x3 pec = 30 pec
10 days 2 pec 10x2x3 pec = 60 pec
10 days 3 pec 10x3x3 pec = 90 pec

is all in all for 3 AUD in 30 days using a middle value mix calc = 1.8 ped / month with 3 deeds

12x1,8 ped = 21,6 ped ROI/year with 3 deeds ( atm 150 ped invest ) which summons a theoretical 14,4 % ROI

Hope my calculating works also on mondays uhhh.

Edit: Numbers i am using from my this years AUD daily revenues
 
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Cosax said:
If ROI of AUD stays at 2 pec/deed/day it'll be like 7,3 ped per AUD per anno.
Click to expand...

It won't. At least, it didn't last year when it gave similar figures in January. You can't assume it will be this high all year round.
 
AUD value is increasingly increasing even when they still can be purchased through webshop.

The moment webshop runs out of AUD adeed to the prominent future for AU (which will be translated into higher yield), price will soar.
 
entropian12 said:
AUD value is increasingly increasing even when they still can be purchased through webshop.

The moment webshop runs out of AUD adeed to the prominent future for AU (which will be translated into higher yield), price will soar.
Click to expand...

Yeah but year ago in this same time people was speaking same. When they run out from webshop. Who knows will these take another year more?
 
Chiee said:
Yeah but year ago in this same time people was speaking same. When they run out from webshop. Who knows will these take another year more?
Click to expand...


1 month, 1 year, 1 decade...who knows? But in the meanwhile, enjoy a really high yield :yay:
 
@ Marie

Yes, i do not assume it will stay like this.


Today been 3 pec per AUD as well. If that would be normal per day AUD outperform CLD ROI compared to investvolume/ROI AUD.

Price raised a bit in MU per deed, is atm +61

CLD is MU +1885.
 
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Cool. I'm glad to see this thread enjoying a second revival with folks re-examining the numbers. :)

And yes, you should look at long-term averages vs each other to make better choices, rather than just a day or month that may just happen to be that investments best or worst performance.
 
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