[in short: it's point 3, the ARPU, which is probably the misleading bit]The graph speaks of yield of deeds. And the assumptions are clear. Where you come up with the idea that you need the 30% multiplier is beyond me. Unless you are basically saying they are blatantly lying.
Hi folks. I know it's a pain to work out everything oneself, but what options do we really have, given the 'reliability' of the sources otherwise available. Obviously you have to check for your own reliability as well, but here goes my thinking:
if 200,000 each buy 1 deed and generate 36 USD of revenue a year, then each would get 30% of that paid back out as his/her share = 10.8 USD. That's a bit more than 100% a year.
Now there's something wrong already, as that graph suggests unique players, but assuming only 20% actually pay to play. That doesn't match!
It could be that they mean not revenue, but "deed revenue" of 3 USD a month (I think this ties with what Wollo is saying), so players will actually be spending 3.3x more than that, as the rest of the revenue needs to be generated for MA too. So, it would be a spend of 108 USD a year and getting 36 USD via the deed. Now assume that only 20% are actually paying to pay and the income per deed drops to 7.2 USD per year return, with a deed cost of 10 USD. That's a return of 72%, so given the poorness of the x-axis figure positions, it's still out, but ok.
So, we need 40k paying players at 9 USD a month to get 72% return. BUT, the estimate is that on average, players will only pay for 6 months, so 80k 6-monthers for 72%, or 8k paying players for a return of 7.2% (a figure which would be ok, but somewhat low given the risk involved).
That scenario of 8k paying means 40k total (32k playing for free), and a consumption of players joining and giving up again later of something over a thousand a month.
Is that realistic? I have absolutely no idea.... but I doubt the hype curve would stay 'stable' anyway. Will things last long enough for a return on the investment before it becomes a game of the past, with the deeds then being worth much much less? Again, I dunno, but I think this element needs more consideration than the main EU world, which I think can exist for quite a while yet...
Well, ya know.... it's a bit like any loot we get - if we hit a multiplier, we are nicely up - if we don't, we are somewhere below break-even...... will I "shoot a few deeds"? Ohhhhh, probably