Info: Hit Rate

arkon409

Old Alpha
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Jan 27, 2009
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southern indiana
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Jordan arkon Fultz
The new system change with all the new weapons and such?

Im maxxed on my m83 unL and have been using it for months now... that said ive ran many many tests on L and unL weapons all with similar results

most recent tracking I did:
total shots fired: 14398
Hits: 12917
Misses: 1481
Hit rate: 89.71% this is over 2 % less then the assumed 92% you read everywhere else...

things to possibly gather from this data:
My ava just cant hit anything...
90% is the new hit rate
90 is the new 92...
My ava has been in a really big rut for hit rate
dynamic...

any thoughts on this?
can anyone else concur?
 
90% on mxed stuffs.
 
I do not think this is a big deal whatsoever. In fact, this raises no alarm to me.

These misses likely have very little effect on tt returns. You have a great eco gun, I'm certain that if you hunt smart your returns should be around 90%.

I honestly feel that these misses don't really matter as you should still get 90%+ tt in the end.

Evade is just a part of the game and nothing to get worked up over.

I mean, MA doesn't make your gun miss a ton so they can steal all your money lol.
 
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where did you read 92%, as far as i know it has been 90% since the start of the game?
 
90% hit rate 10% miss rate 2% crit rate it has been this way since at least 2009 when i started playing.

also 15000 shots is a small sample try a few million for more precise results.
 
90% hit rate 10% miss rate 2% crit rate it has been this way since at least 2009 when i started playing.
I personally prefer to think of it in terms of miss-rate only, i.e. the MA tax (it simplifies).

100% shots. 10% are misses. This is money MA pockets immediately.
Of the 90% remaining, you get perhaps ~1.5% crits, leaving 98.5% normal hits.

also 15000 shots is a small sample try a few million for more precise results
I think this may be a reason some people are just leaving. "What? You expect me to spend the money for a million shots, just to get to average miss-rate?!". IME you don't need a million shots to catch the trend, you see it way, way earlier.
 
I personally prefer to think of it in terms of miss-rate only, i.e. the MA tax (it simplifies).

100% shots. 10% are misses. This is money MA pockets immediately.
Of the 90% remaining, you get perhaps ~1.5% crits, leaving 98.5% normal hits.

It's 2% of hits that are crits from the data i've processed. (Much of which is in Jennson's link.) This is still an error in most dpp/dps formulas i've seen applied in tools, which fail to scale the crit ratio by the hit ratio.

I think this may be a reason some people are just leaving. "What? You expect me to spend the money for a million shots, just to get to average miss-rate?!". IME you don't need a million shots to catch the trend, you see it way, way earlier.

I think it's not that at all. lol...

Fact remains you can have a pretty large variance from the mean, even with really large samples. Whether that variance is larger than one would expect from a normal distribution i haven't calculated, but it wouldn't surprise me. Most of the "dynamic" mechanics of EU seem to include some really long-term fluctuations (as discussed in threads on "luck" or "bioritmas".
 
Anyway, since a thread like this is created every month or two, let me explain the conclusions from the previous studies of hit ratio (one of which is, again, linked above):

1. The correct formula for average damage per shot (including misses and crits) is:

(0.8+HA/100) * max_dmg * ((1+min_dmg/max_dmg)/2+CHA/500)


The first expression in parenthesis is the effective hit ratio, which ranges from 0.8 to 0.9 with HA;
the second expression in parenthesis consists of two terms, both of which are multiplied by the max_dmg. The first is (1+min_dmg/max_dmg)/2, which is the average damage per hit; the second is CHA/500, which is the crit hit ratio (==0.02 at unenhanced, maxed CHA of 10). As mentioned above, the key difference between this and the existing formulas (e.g. entropedia) is that the crit hit ratio should be scaled by the hit ratio.

What this means is that your ratio of crit hits to shots increases with your HA even without changing CHA because misses can't become crits, so if you hit more of your shots, you will crit more. Of course, crit hit ratio to hits increases with CHA.

Perhaps the irony of the repeated threads on misses and miss rate is that the misses of an unmaxed weapon are far less important than the low damage hits of an unmaxed weapon. Here's why: on old school weapons (non SIB), min_dmg starts at 0.25*max_dmg and is maxed at 0.50*max_dmg. When damage is 50% maxed, the average damage fraction per shot (including misses) is 0.637 (with maxed Hit). Compare this with the average damage fraction per shot (including misses) with damage maxed and Hit 50% maxed, 0.651, and you will see that with non SIB weapons, the damage profession is more important to increase the dpp and dps. The difference is made even larger by the recent change to start HA at 4 instead of 0 (the numbers above were calculated using the old 50% maxed HA of 5). Also consider the predominance of Hit-related skills as mission rewards.* What it all sums up to is that Hit profession progress is of relatively minor concern for those trying to max a non-SIB weapon.

2. "You missed" is a marker for 0-10% misses of an unmaxed weapon (anything "rolled" for hit between 80 and 90 that is above your hit ratio). You shouldn't be seeing this message if you have truly maxed the Hit for the weapon (although the HA is rounded so it will read 10 before it is maxed). If you are, you should probably contact support.

"Target evaded", or however it's worded, is a marker for the 10% misses of a maxed weapon. Anything "rolled" between 90 and 100 will give you this result. ETA: even though the message is new, these shots have always been missed. The only change is in putting a different message in chat for unmaxed weapon misses vs. unavoidable misses.

3. Accuracy enhancers increase the ratio of hits that are crits, but not the ratio of shots that are hits. This is not a new revelation, but it's worth pointing out.

4. Skill modification attachments (scopes and sights) do affect your hit ratio for unmaxed weapons, but no one has been able to determine the exact quantitative relationship. With skill mod = 28, i get about 0.002-0.003 higher hit ratio. In other words, it gives an apparent increase of ~3 hit profession levels. The statistics are variable enough when looking at a 0.002 difference in hit ratio that it's really hard to say if this is a worthwhile change. I estimated that in my case (with the most efficient skill mod/pec decay attachments), it comes out about even. It would be really nice if MA could give us a more specific guideline on this, especially since they are including a scope in the starter pack. There has never been a test that has showed higher hit rate for maxed Hit with attachments.



* Unfortunately, a lot of Dmg profession skills are unlocked, and unlocked skills are currently not available as mission rewards.
 
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