Very interesting take on it, thanks.
I read a quote on the pyrite thread from MA stating that the amount of Pyrite that can be in game is not limited. So you are suggesting that when a certain amount of pyrite is in game the biggest possible claim size decreases and or the probability of a find aswell ? I am assuming Pyrite and Dianthus follow the same rules.
What would you say is the amount that is stockpiled right now? I has to be huge when you look at the biggest claims that have been found so far. 28k according to entropia life. Globals seem to have stopped as of August 11.
If markup goes up I might go unamped
How I interpret that is this:
There are 2 separate places, that no matter what, I will find pyrite at. One will only release 5-10 ped every 4 hours or so, the other is around 15 ped every four hours. As long as no one else mined there, I WILL ALWAYS find it. That means, YES there truly is no "limit" as MA said. Meaning some amount is always available to be found...
But it is that amount AVAILABLE that fluctuates based on consumption. And it is this amount available that is increased when bp's are clicked or ore is tt'ed. And by watching the crafters, one can see what ores would likely be MORE AVAILABLE.
SO, mining something that is not being clicked in Bp's and used up would tend to lead to less multipliers than something being clicked.
Someone can mine alternative at 130% (or other mu stones) all week long and not profit if there is plenty of alternative in game, and none is being used. This is because a break-even multiplier (one that gets you to around 95% tt return) is not likely on that resource at that particular time.
Sometimes mu resources are harder to find (and harder to find WITH multiplier) and figuring out how you can determine usage of said resource (watching crafters) is one of the many steps that someone needs to do to be a profit miner.
You can't just watch the mu alone and say "hey its going up, lets mine it", you need to know to wait until you see that dianthus is actually being used. (it might just be going up b/c only 1% of the total amount in game is avaiable on the au) Its hard to know for sure when it is actually being used, but you will get better at it with experience. I watch EL, I talk to crafters, I look at who is buying what, I look at the sales since the last tower of whatever mineral I am investigating...there are dozens of ways to get good at learning what is stockpiled, and what is used up.
For example, there had been a few nice hits on alternative this month, and yet I am still buying it all day for in the 12x% range (which is a very low price for alt). That means not many are buying it...therefore not many are clicking it, and therefore my likelihood of a large, multiplied find is slim. However, isBjorn and Maximus have started clicking d-class amps yesterday... (at 250 alt per click, there is some good consumption on that BP). The other BP's commonly crafted that use alternative are still pretty dead (Roadie amp etc...). Once I extrapolate a ROUGH idea in my head based on what I know of crafting (you can tell by the avg amount of the globals or hofs whether they were on condition or quantity) you can start to get an idea of the clicks they used to get those tracked globals. Obviously its not perfect, people move the crafting slider around etc...but it can give you a rough idea. Therefore I always have a rough idea of how much clicking I need to see to start expecting another tower to drop on that ore. Now I look at Eve hitting a near tower about 3 days ago, and a 9k hitting earlier on alt this month, and based on experience, I know to hold off on mining alt for a bit longer.
OF COURSE, I might be wrong and someone might hit a tower the second I am done typing this, but generally, watching these this WILL give you a slight advantage in the long run.
So, mining the ores that WANT to drop bigger, because of a deficiency in surplus (and remember, by "deficiency in surplus" I do NOT mean just what is on auction), is one of the many things that can help your return
I see people all day whine "why do I not make ped when all I mine is MU ore like gazz and Alt". The answer is, because you are over mining the alt/gazz area at times when alt and gazz don't feel like dropping hofs of it because there is not a shortage of it atm.
So start with the ores you love to find, or know good locations for, then learn what bps use them, and start watching the amount of those ore getting used
Its hard to explain perfectly but thats the best I can do.