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WhiningSkeptic said:
if you take 1000 players average from 200 000 loots per player you will still have some variance.
Click to expand...

Well the more players you get into your statistic and the more loot events you add to it, the more will get close to 90% average return.

Why?

Because MA takes 10%.
 
Ok Ok Ok...

If someone get's a HOF say 7k as happened today.

That PED had to come from somewhere...
Each of X amout of people has to lose a certain amount of PED to fill this number...

For every winner theres a few losers, plain and simple, and to make these
big winning numbers some days you have to loose more then other days.

Today alone theres 20,484 PED in HOFs just in the TOP 10

Lets say all those people who got 90% return did a 500 ped run...

Thats 409 people who had to have made that cycle in 24 hours.


Fact is 90% is a myth... unless you are doing other things to suplement it.

A hunter doing less then 2k and under a certain profession lvl who doesnt know how to work AH etc, will not come close to 90%


So just enjoy what you do get and be happy :)
 
KullXP said:
Ok Ok Ok...

If someone get's a HOF say 7k as happened today.

That PED had to come from somewhere...
Each of X amout of people has to lose a certain amount of PED to fill this number...

For every winner theres a few losers, plain and simple, and to make these
big winning numbers some days you have to loose more then other days.

Today alone theres 20,484 PED in HOFs just in the TOP 10

Lets say all those people who got 90% return did a 500 ped run...

Thats 409 people who had to have made that cycle in 24 hours.


Fact is 90% is a myth... unless you are doing other things to suplement it.

A hunter doing less then 2k and under a certain profession lvl who doesnt know how to work AH etc, will not come close to 90%


So just enjoy what you do get and be happy :)
Click to expand...

You're only looking at one day, that isn't long term. In the short term there is more variance, some people got HoFs, some people got crappy returns. Given enough time, though, most people are going to have experienced both the highs and lows of return, and will average to a fairly close amount (assuming they used equivalently eco gear/setup).
 
What you say is probably true...

Again My Setup,
https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?266090-Caly-Trek-Cap-30-Smug-Tango-Cryo-VIII-Liakon-Boar-Etc&highlight=

Over 80k in Gear,
I use Eco Enhancers not the ones in pic's


Ive had up's and down's, but I fall very far down... and get a tiny fraction of a up...

But I will say this I know many who have no gear at all and I know hunt less eco than me who swear they deposit 200 ped a week, yet I see them hunting for hours a day.

Maybe im just left out or a bug in system.

I bought all UL from day one to minimize my loose and prolong my ped, it has not helped at all im afraid.
 
narfi said:
This is all I am saying.
Obviously you cant predict anything, but you can observe the mean value.
Click to expand...

Except that looking at only a (supposed) mean value of the distribution is meaningless. It doesn't tell you anything about convergence, or the achievability of mean value.
 
remontoire said:
Except that looking at only a (supposed) mean value of the distribution is meaningless. It doesn't tell you anything about convergence, or the achievability of mean value.
Click to expand...

You asked....

Here is a chart of TT return vs PED cycled mining "properly". Tool TT decay and all other TT costs are included in the TT return (it averages around 3% of PED cycled). As you can see, even 25k ped cycled is not long term (10k claims, btw) probably equivalent to 10k creatures killed. There's no real reason to expect that your own returns won't converge to 95% as well.

For hunting, decay is higher than 3% so the number will be lower, often a LOT lower, and "hunting eco" means very different things to different people. People under level 100 using old school guns, for instance. Remember, not just armor goes to decay, a portion of your weapon/ammo/blade TT also goes to decay rather than to DMG inflicted and is not returned in loot. It's no mystery why MA encourages hunting rather than mining.

tt_return_vs_ped_cycled.jpg
 
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remontoire said:
Except that looking at only a (supposed) mean value of the distribution is meaningless. It doesn't tell you anything about convergence, or the achievability of mean value.
Click to expand...

There are always exceptions. But,
From my own experiences during periods that I have taken the time to log returns combined with an obsessions with reading all the available forums and logs for the past 6 years I have the confidence to continue playing with real money.

Personal logs when I started that built my confidence in the system:
97.46%
https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?173437-Project-CB5-vs-Merp-Young/page3

90.21%
https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?176160-Project-Bicak-Kek-vs-Drones/page7

92.7%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...RLR1lNamlrU3lzNGV3dzhiNmc&usp=drive_web#gid=0

More Recent Logs from others:
One of this Era's heaviest hunters - Girts -

96% on over 9million ped cycled
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkQ2K0LvuALsdGpNR1UwNVcyTnY2cEJOSjF4bDNiLUE#gid=13


Das' Logs he is upset he fell below 90%

96.97% from 250k cycled
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...xwHcXqjO4hzshiVa9tA4gKZ_c/edit#gid=1996260759

The period he is upset about,
87.61% from 117k cycled
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...ukbsorDJxwWSh24-gP9uPKkqE/edit#gid=1803012238

One of the heaviest Miners of this era - Eve
88.58% from 3.3million ped cycled
https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/...ed-Pornogrind/page16&highlight=eve+pornogrind

An older log by Ace
86.41% from 89k cycled
https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/...roject-TT-returns-90&highlight=90%+tt+returns

Strash mining
89.5% from 993k ped cycled
https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/...nlimited-level-5/page22&highlight=strash+logs

Another miner,
87.82% from 110k cycled
https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/...lluss-Mining-Log-(Cost)/page19&highlight=logs

Neil has shown he is more than willing to show his records which also match up with all of this.


It is easy to have confidence when you are 'winning'
and it is easy to loose all confidence when you are 'loosing'

but if you step back and look at the bigger picture,
it is easier to stay conservative even when you are 'winning'
and easier to retain your confidence when 'loosing'.

None of this matters though if you believe you will get anything below 100% tt and do not attempt to target markup in loot. I think it is easy to get hung up on %ages, but it is vastly more important to figure out how to gain that markup from other players.
 
KullXP said:
What you say is probably true...

Again My Setup,
https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?266090-Caly-Trek-Cap-30-Smug-Tango-Cryo-VIII-Liakon-Boar-Etc&highlight=

Over 80k in Gear,
I use Eco Enhancers not the ones in pic's


Ive had up's and down's, but I fall very far down... and get a tiny fraction of a up...

But I will say this I know many who have no gear at all and I know hunt less eco than me who swear they deposit 200 ped a week, yet I see them hunting for hours a day.

Maybe im just left out or a bug in system.

I bought all UL from day one to minimize my loose and prolong my ped, it has not helped at all im afraid.
Click to expand...

Its always easy to think system has a fault when things dont work your way, you are on the other hand known for beeing one of the most spending pk´rs at noob rig and as far as im concerned you dont get loot from there.

Dont get me wrong, im not riding a high horse just cause im lucky to do decently, me doing decently comes from constantly having to adapt, over and over again.

UL gear is far from a success guarantee, some UL gear is good and some is not even worth using. And most of all if used improperly, any gear as a one way ticket to fail.

What bothers me is that people have such a short fuse before they yell, bug, beeing left out, others are favorized etc.

This place is exactly like IRL, each and everyone is responsible for his own success.

If system dont seem to like what you are doing, have you considered trying a different approach?

And another thing wich is more general than directed to you, people alwas seem to think black and white.

"Oh , so you say i cant hunt dasp stalker economical! - Id better camp punys then! "

Well, there are a few levels of mobs to choose from between the outer two.

Also , people who dont log their hunts always do worse, isnt that funny?
 
narfi said:
Das' Logs he is upset he fell below 90%

96.97% from 250k cycled
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...xwHcXqjO4hzshiVa9tA4gKZ_c/edit#gid=1996260759

The period he is upset about,
87.61% from 117k cycled
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...ukbsorDJxwWSh24-gP9uPKkqE/edit#gid=1803012238
Click to expand...

I'm not upset I fell below 90% TT, I'm upset that I can lose more in 50% cycled vs what I can profit in douvble cycled with good returns.
TBH, I don't care much about TT returns, It's the TT+mu that counts to me.
I also started complaining the day Kim started fucking with improved loots & my log showed me that avg mu was actually going down.
I'm upset he ignored my complaints for almost 2 years & now tries to undo it by f****** hunters more..
What do I know.. I only hunted my way to 269 hp
I'm also upset about the fact that I know what I would need to get to recover from the losses of those last 115k cycled & how long it's been (read cycled) since I actually got something like that.
& I only splitted the log up in 2 sections, Wonna count the last 5-6 hunts I did & see the result of that.. It will make you almost cry.
I still have some hope for things to turn around or I would've sold my stuff a long time ago.. the question is just how long I can keep my hopes up b4 I throw in the towel.
To give you a small example of how loot USED to be.. on my 16.6k sumima kills with an uneco setup (zk7+beast) I actually managed the same TT return as this last log combined.. only diffrence is, after MU I had about 7k ped profit.
I never played this game to get rich, but I do think that ppl with maxed & decent gear should have the possibility to grind their way to better gear to step up their hunting setup.. keep in mind, I only have an i2870+106 & adj fap.
I can also tell you that in my total carreer, alltough I haven't depo'd in the last 4 years, I depo'd enough to buy more then 1 modfap

Das
 
das said:
I'm not upset I fell below 90% TT, I'm upset that I can lose more in 50% cycled vs what I can profit in douvble cycled with good returns.
TBH, I don't care much about TT returns, It's the TT+mu that counts to me.
Click to expand...

TT is all I am talking about, MU is an entirely different part of the equation. (as I pointed out at the end of my previous post)
I have a lot of respect for you, so no offense, and thanks for being willing to share your logs and thoughts :)
 
here are the numbers of last few runs..

26263 ped cycled
78.95% TT return
81.00% after mu

4993 ped loss

Now go count on my tracker & see my last 5k loot.. pretty sure it's been more then 3000 globals ago or from 2011 or something like that

Sorry Narfi.. Must spread more rep..
 
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ermik said:
Its always easy to think system has a fault when things dont work your way, you are on the other hand known for beeing one of the most spending pk´rs at noob rig and as far as im concerned you dont get loot from there.

Dont get me wrong, im not riding a high horse just cause im lucky to do decently, me doing decently comes from constantly having to adapt, over and over again.

UL gear is far from a success guarantee, some UL gear is good and some is not even worth using. And most of all if used improperly, any gear as a one way ticket to fail.

What bothers me is that people have such a short fuse before they yell, bug, beeing left out, others are favorized etc.
Click to expand...


Cryed bug because a UL item worth 15k disappeared due to MA problem at bank and support never replied.

Rig and PK has nothing to do with returns.

Lucky avater's? No such thing they spend for that luck/favortized its because of there cycle's + gear + ava lvl :)

How do I calculate my success...?
All my gear is 100% repaired before run,
Buy 2k Ammo or more depending...

Put all ammo and loot in TT after run, <--- Just to see TT Retun*
Subtract that number from repair bill...
Subtract that number from Ammo Bought...

= 90% on a really good run - 50% on a good run


Mobs hunted... hmmm ive camped on punys, small ark mobs ext... ext... for long periods of time to try to change loot theroy and nothing.

As I said in pervious post I only hunt,

Good Kill Rate, My gun well overpowers regen rate, In Teams mostly now day's
Eco out setup not using crazy amount of enhancers, some guns I put eco enhancers on.

All mobs, I dont solo mobs out of my level...

90% or even close is not for all... its true, its a fact...

My fuse not short I usually dont say anything just couldnt watch that guy getting bashed and made to look crazy for saying his return way lower then 90% when I know and many others I talk with know is a fact.

We are here and we will not be made to look like mad men! Stay strong 50%'ers!


Needed to add*** Loot is alot better after VU, its not a ammo trick it really is.
If you buy more ammo then youll shoot you cant be tricked by ammo in loot.
 
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fed_up_cat.jpg



Dont worry, stick with it for long enough and things will (should?) get better.

:makelove:


(My loot has been atrocious Mon - Wed so I know how it is)
 
The whole "90% return" is a red herring, I mean honestly...

Some people, sure, have gotten such long-term returns. But others have not. And what constitutes long-term enough? 5000 PED cycled? 10k? 20k? 100k? Look at the above post, 30k PED cycled... 80% return? Not long enough term?

How about the 11 years I've played? My "long-term"/"full-term" is far below 90% :laugh: I've always used proper gear for my level and what I was hunting (keeping sets of low, mid, and high level armor and weapons for different areas). Until the last year or so I've logged most everything, and it was always below 90% with the exception of my Iron Aurli log (which I posted up on PCF).

And 90% of one term becomes less when the next term is also 90%, because you'll be seeing less and less return over time from your starting position.

The white knights need to stop throwing "90%" out there. It doesn't apply to everyone and its just a silly argument. The only way to see a permanent 90% return is to play until you get back to 90% and quit forever.

That said, I still enjoy the game. But these excuses are silly :laugh:
 
Rave said:
The white knights need to stop throwing "90%" out there. It doesn't apply to everyone and its just a silly argument. The only way to see a permanent 90% return is to play until you get back to 90% and quit forever.
Click to expand...

Im not really sure how to start....

If you go out and cycle 1000 ped, and come back with 900 ped, you had 90% return.

If you then go out with that 900 ped and come back with 810 ped, youre still having 90% return.

ITS NOT 90% RETURN ON STARTER CAPITAL, ITS 90% RETURN ON CYCLED PEDS WE TALK ABOUT.

AND OK, FOR SOME ITS 88% AND SOME ITS 94%, BECAUSE STATISTICS IS A BITCH.

Im just going to leave this thread and watch the people not capable of adapting or understanding what could be done differently alone to pat their backs and blame MA, obviously we who try to play the game like its meant are just lucky guys...

And yes, im around 90% FULL TERM, but prior to 2010 i was not, thats why i still deposited prior to that time when i decided to view EU from another angle.

And yes, its 90% of Cycled peds full term, not on gear that dropped in value etc etc, i mean you cant expect MA to cover you for shitty investments....

And, sorry for the tone, i need my coffee.

Over and out, ill be ingame having my MA certified "luck"
 
ermik said:
ITS NOT 90% RETURN ON STARTER CAPITAL, ITS 90% RETURN ON CYCLED PEDS WE TALK ABOUT.

AND OK, FOR SOME ITS 88% AND SOME ITS 94%, BECAUSE STATISTICS IS A BITCH.
Click to expand...

I'm not talking about starter capital either. I'm talking about PEDs spent in hunts (ammo, decay, etc). I rarely come in at 90% on any given hunt. Sure, there are a few hunts where I get a nice HOF to bring me above 100%... but mostly this is not the case. My average return on any given cycle is around 70-75%. I'm not complaining about this, because if it were such a big deal, I wouldn't be playing still. But it just isn't accurate to say everyone sees 90%, or even close to it. I know plenty of people who come in under this bill. I also know others who do see a "88-94%" return. You just cannot look at a small cross section of the player base and assume it covers everyone. Science and statistics just don't work that way.

This particularly applies to big mobs, such as Vanguards. They have a large kill-cost and their average loot is no where near 90% of any given kill. I've gone multiple cycles without a HOF on them, and eats costs. Now, yes, you could say "Well, don't hunt those!"... but now you are creating specific parameters to obtain a 90% return. Sure, if I hunt only medium atrox, I will certainly see a high % return. So, then what is the point of playing any other part of the game? Why bother skilling, moving into higher-end gear, and hunting high level mobs?

Not to mention the MU of a lot of (L) items that come off high level mobs are extremely low or non-existent because most people don't have the skills to use those items. The players that do... have UL gear.
 
Rave said:
I'm not talking about starter capital either. I'm talking about PEDs spent in hunts (ammo, decay, etc). I rarely come in at 90% on any given hunt. Sure, there are a few hunts where I get a nice HOF to bring me above 100%... but mostly this is not the case. My average return on any given cycle is around 70-75%. I'm not complaining about this, because if it were such a big deal, I wouldn't be playing still. But it just isn't accurate to say everyone sees 90%, or even close to it. I know plenty of people who come in under this bill. I also know others who do see a "88-94%" return. You just cannot look at a small cross section of the player base and assume it covers everyone. Science and statistics just don't work that way.

This particularly applies to big mobs, such as Vanguards. They have a large kill-cost and their average loot is no where near 90% of any given kill. I've gone multiple cycles without a HOF on them, and eats costs. Now, yes, you could say "Well, don't hunt those!"... but now you are creating specific parameters to obtain a 90% return. Sure, if I hunt only medium atrox, I will certainly see a high % return. So, then what is the point of playing any other part of the game? Why bother skilling, moving into higher-end gear, and hunting high level mobs?

Not to mention the MU of a lot of (L) items that come off high level mobs are extremely low or non-existent because most people don't have the skills to use those items. The players that do... have UL gear.
Click to expand...

Everyone who plays within their level and use proper equipment for it gets "around" 90% long term.

Better?

I never claimed all how badly they choose to play gets 90% ....
 
Rave said:
I'm not talking about starter capital either. I'm talking about PEDs spent in hunts (ammo, decay, etc). I rarely come in at 90% on any given hunt. Sure, there are a few hunts where I get a nice HOF to bring me above 100%... but mostly this is not the case. My average return on any given cycle is around 70-75%. I'm not complaining about this, because if it were such a big deal, I wouldn't be playing still. But it just isn't accurate to say everyone sees 90%, or even close to it. I know plenty of people who come in under this bill. I also know others who do see a "88-94%" return. You just cannot look at a small cross section of the player base and assume it covers everyone. Science and statistics just don't work that way.

This particularly applies to big mobs, such as Vanguards. They have a large kill-cost and their average loot is no where near 90% of any given kill. I've gone multiple cycles without a HOF on them, and eats costs.
Click to expand...

Vanguards start at 2400 hp for the Generation 2. What are you calling a "cycle" on those mobs? I would say minimum 150k ped.
 
Neil Stockton said:
Vanguards start at 2400 hp for the Generation 2. What are you calling a "cycle" on those mobs? I would say minimum 150k ped.
Click to expand...

That's exactly my point... there is no set of standards when approaching "cycling". Let's say someone is at 90% when they cycle 50k PED, people would say "See! 90%!". But then if the same person is at 75% after 150,000 PED cycled, people will say "You need to cycle more!".

Anyone who has taken statistics will say the same thing: you have to create a specific set of standards equal for all participants across the board. So unless everyone hunts with the exact same gear, on the exact same mob, and with the exact same PED cycle... you cannot logically create a standard of return. Some will profit, some will break even, some will get close to even (ie, 90%), and some will do far worse.

Ermik, I'm aware of the perils of hunting beyond one's skill/gear level.
 
Rave said:
That's exactly my point... there is no set of standards when approaching "cycling".
Click to expand...

But it has been mentioned and it is not the amount of ped spent, it is the number of looting opportunities taken.
1000 looting opportunities is a small 'cycle' many groups of 1000 looting opportunities is an 'over time' snapshot.
(obviously providing you are consistent in what you do and don't jump around from 5pec kills to 15ped kills and unamped mining to L13s at a whim)
 
narfi said:
But it has been mentioned and it is not the amount of ped spent, it is the number of looting opportunities taken.
1000 looting opportunities is a small 'cycle' many groups of 1000 looting opportunities is an 'over time' snapshot.
(obviously providing you are consistent in what you do and don't jump around from 5pec kills to 15ped kills and unamped mining to L13s at a whim)
Click to expand...

Sure, I agree that looting opportunities is a better standard, assuming the cycle is consistent for one mob in order to maintain average kill costs. But even then, the return for any given player in the same amount of looting opportunities will be different. It cannot be guaranteed that every player will have 90% return at any specified loot number.

However, the more loot opportunities given, the more opportunities a player has for a large HOF/uber/ATH which could cover lost costs. Again, this still cannot be guaranteed.
 
Going to start negative repping everyone who states 90% as a fact or reference point. Knock it off.
 
atomicstorm said:
Going to start negative repping everyone who states 90% as a fact or reference point. Knock it off.
Click to expand...

-rep me then, because it is a reference point.
perhaps 85, perhaps 95, I don't know. But 90 is definitely a reference point.
 
narfi said:
-rep me then, because it is a reference point.
perhaps 85, perhaps 95, I don't know. But 90 is definitely a reference point.
Click to expand...

Peronal reference point sure, but u can't use that formula for every player out there, it's not like 90% is written in stone and u just have to keep spending in order to reach it, at some times u do have to wonder, and believe me with mining it can go allot faster then with hunting ped wise.

(ps. i don't mean playing for penny or dimes)
 
S4400Salvation said:
Peronal reference point sure, but u can't use that formula for every player out there, it's not like 90% is written in stone and u just have to keep spending in order to reach it, at some times u do have to wonder, and believe me with mining it can go allot faster then with hunting ped wise.

(ps. i don't mean playing for penny or dimes)
Click to expand...

I am very surprised by people saying 90% is wrong. All peeps are saying is long term results verge towards 90%.

There is no gaurantee, but anyone who logs results for more than a day, see's that tt returns end up around 90%.

Its not rocket science.....any shmuck saying but it isnt 90%. They are right, we are not saying that.

Get ya heads out of ya asses and stop saying people are saying that "90%" is gauranteed. It is not, never will be, but all long terms will "tend towards" it. Whether you like it or not lol

Anyone with half a brain knows 10 loots vs 1000 loots. That 10 loots will be massively variable, and 1000 loots will be a LOT less variable. And the 1000 loots will be closer to the 90%.

Once again people, there is no hard rule, but a little common sense will get you a long way. The more mobs you loot, the more mining finds you get, the more success you have in crafting, the closer you get to tending towards 90%.

But then again, ANYONE who records results will already know, you need thousands of events to get steady returns.

So it appears we are preaching to people who do not track their results. So any argument is pointless.

Couldnt resist to add in my two pecs. I will not be replying in this thread. (Unless someone who as recorded their long term results can show tt returns less than 80%)

Rgds

Ace
 
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Ace Flyster said:
I am very surprised by people saying 90% is wrong. All peeps are saying is long term results verge towards 90%.

There is no gaurantee, but anyone who logs results for more than a day, see's that tt returns end up around 90%.

Its not rocket science.....any shmuck saying but it isnt 90%. They are right, we are not saying that.

Get ya heads out of ya asses and stop saying people are saying that "90%" is gauranteed. It is not, never will be, but all long terms will "tend towards" it. Whether you like it or not lol

Anyone with half a brain knows 10 loots vs 1000 loots. That 10 loots will be massively variable, and 1000 loots will be a LOT less variable. And the 1000 loots will be closer to the 90%.

Once again people, there is no hard rule, but a little common sense will get you a long way. The more mobs you loot, the more mining finds you get, the more success you have in crafting, the closer you get to tending towards 90%.

But then again, ANYONE who records results will already know, you need thousands of events to get steady returns.

So it appears we are preaching to people who do not track their results. So any argument is pointless.

Couldnt resist to add in my two pecs. I will not be replying in this thread. (Unless someone who as recorded their long term results can show tt returns less than 80%)

Rgds

Ace
Click to expand...

And you do what exactly ingame? Playing for nickles and dimes?

Ps. you are a funny guy, but anyone who logs results for more than a day, see's that tt returns end up around 90%.

You are quite the ignorant one for thinking this is my first day playing EU.
 
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S4400Salvation said:
And you do what exactly ingame? Playing for nickles and dimes?

Ps. you are a funny guy, but anyone who logs results for more than a day, see's that tt returns end up around 90%.

You are quite the ignorant one for thinking this is my first day playing EU.
Click to expand...

Since this argument doesn't seem to stop, and lying basically is two sides arguing and we are getting closer and closer to a sandbox I must ask you for a favor.

Since you are so certain and apparently cycle quite an amount of PED, can't you just start a log here on PCF? That way you could show the opposing side your actual returns and we would need to reconsider the 90% statements.

If you have the time, please do so since it would have a significant impact on the debate.
 
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