Possible Explanation for EP bps and Shrapnel

This is lengthy and dense... brace yourselves.

After putting two and two together I have come up with a possible explanation for the recent drastic changes in EU which consist of, but are not limited to: Explosive Projectiles BPs, Shrapnel Introduction, and transformation of the EU economy...

Behold.... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?pli=1&key=0Aj1CPJcQncDndHF4X2I4aDB3blhFVWNpY2E3a1FUSWc#gid=0

Starting from 2011 moving down to 2015 following the "ROI" columns (1100, 1200, etc..) The return of investment on CLDs has decreased, a lot in the last 4 years.. from ~21% (2011) to ~15% (2015)...

Since CLDs give the players a lot of insight into the revenues of MindArk, it can be concluded they're feeling the hurt.

Fast Forward to omgzpaniczzskyisfallingz period of EP bp and shrapnel introduction.. Turnover for all three professions has increased:

Shrapnel = hunters convert to ammo for 101%, then go hunt more...
EP bps = Residue is cheaper; gun/attachment crafting is boosted...
EP bps 2 = mining amps get cheaper, big amp miners flood the market...

Rinse... Repeat...

I may be one of the biggest criticizers (complainer/whiner/baby) about the introduction of EP bps and shrapnel, but if something needed to be done then something needed to be done to keep EU moving.

If players won't log on longer and cycle peds fast enough to keep MA afloat then MA must adapt..
This could also explain the huge push for new players..

Many have complained about MA unleashing event after event upon us... but look at the CLD payouts during events... in most cases it's 150%+ the normal payout, so why wouldn't MA try to boost revenue by releasing events?
I do think this is backfiring somewhat... as many players prefer EU the "way it was" pre-2012.. or even pre-2010 for that matter. CLD payouts were certainly higher in 2012 than they are now, but to answer the question of why, I'm not sure.

MA needs to keep their playerbase happy (as we write their checks), but first and formost they need to keep their business alive.

The way I see it MA has two options... return EU to when turnover/playerbase was the highest, or find ways to adapt and shape the universe in a way that keeps their business afloat, and pleases us players. I'm sure one choice results in bankruptcy and the other results in prosperity, so let's hope they know what they're doing.

Rocket192 said:

....so let's hope they know what they're doing.

Click to expand...

The flaw in your thoughts .......

I'm sure they intended for it to have the effect that it did but it went too far. I expect some adjustments to be made.

What people say and what people want are 2 different pair of shoes.

Whatever the good old past was for you and for me, it didn't work out for mindark and they must try something new to keep the boat afloat. I doubt explosives and shrapnel was the end of the stick. Im sure there is more to come and maybe in a year everything make sense. (I hope)

to add to your post:

MA launching event after event, why?

Some old style players that have been more or less big depositors, started to adjust their gameplay to hunt only during events, because events are very likely to drop the good items.
To get these players back to regular playing, it needs regular events.

Beside that MA let drop at least one good item from Dasp lately, whats good to keep regular players motivated instead only event grinders. To be honest its always the same suspects winning from events, only a very small group of players grabbing all the good stuff from events again and again and again. Thats one thing that demotivated me a lot, with latest drop from Dasp my trust in fair chance for everyone regained slightly, not much, not that optimistic than in the beginning, but at least a little light at the end of the tunnel.

Actually I like MAs latest adjustments very much.

As allways we have to adapt, same as MA had to adapt to the players playstyle.

Beside that MA doing some advertisement now, what I missed a lot last few years, there was nearly nothing.

Positive to see that!

let me first quote what i wrote in another thread:

Magnus Mag said:

when shrapnel got introduced i was kind of positive, i thought perhaps it will be more like in the old times with coins in loot...

but when they introduced expl bps i first was very confused about that move...
i thought alot and i think this is what happened and the motivation:

the new manager sayed:
"ok, we need more profit" (because that is what a manager has to do because capitalism works like this)
then they looked at the professions and said..ok ppl need to cycle more for more profit..
so what does stop them from cycling:

crafters:
-at some point they bought up all the materials from auction or the mu on the ones left got to high
-waiting to sell the product
miners:
-high amp prices
-waiting to sell ores/enmatters
SOLUTION:explosive bps, you can click nonstop, don't have to wait for anything and at the same time amps mus and ore mus go down so miners can buy cheap amps and can also tt their ores which are worth nothing..

hunters:
-wait to sell stuff
SOLUTION:make 90% directly go into new ammo, fool them with 101% conversion rate..

so i think more and more the only motivation was:
PPL can cycle more and faster for more profit...no real thinking about any economy aspect...

that could also have to do with the fact that i am pretty sure the old dev team which found the idea of PE and had a vision is long gone and the new generation overtook it without the real idea what was once behind it and wants to just maximize the profit.....

Click to expand...

even if they need way higher cycle to get going..why did they have to make it with such a huge impact on economy?

Fiona Simmons said:

I doubt explosives and shrapnel was the end of the stick. Im sure there is more to come and maybe in a year everything make sense. (I hope)

Click to expand...

might be might be, i hope so..
but why didn't they present the full update? or short after another and not letting the whole economy change drastic first? for months?
i have the feeling i won't like the next steps btw..

GoNi said:

to add to your post:

MA launching event after event, why?

Some old style players that have been more or less big depositors, started to adjust their gameplay to hunt only during events, because events are very likely to drop the good items.
To get these players back to regular playing, it needs regular events.

Beside that MA let drop at least one good item from Dasp lately, whats good to keep regular players motivated instead only event grinders. To be honest its always the same suspects winning from events, only a very small group of players grabbing all the good stuff from events again and again and again. Thats one thing that demotivated me a lot, with latest drop from Dasp my trust in fair chance for everyone regained slightly, not much, not that optimistic than in the beginning, but at least a little light at the end of the tunnel.

Click to expand...

i find this very problematic. it seems those players changed behaviour because there is no more chance in getting profit on regular hunting. the only way is to get those unl sib stuff as prize or loot during event..
but at some point this will end, because unl sib is evil. it not only destroys the mu on ressources even more (every unl sib user doesn't need to buy stuff from market anymore), as more and more gets released it kills its own markup..
the current growth of eu doesn't justify the huge amount of unl sib stuff released...if old unl sib stuff vanishes with quitting avatars perhaps, but those items are the first ones which are sold and kept ingame by others..
(btw i think eu will never grow again as it once was, because there is too much other free to play games to spend your money on, during first asteroid sale there weren't nearly as much)

so over time ressources AND unl sib will decrease in value (it already does)..so if this will continue like this there will be even less MU..

Rocket192 said:

as many players prefer EU the "way it was" pre-2012.. or even pre-2010 for that matter.

Click to expand...

Well they think they would, but then they type /pos and that didnt exist, they try to set their status as AFK but that didnt exist, they might try doing an auction search (yeah you guessed) or send an offline msg (nope) fly to their destination (you got the idea)

atomicstorm said:

I'm sure they intended for it to have the effect that it did but it went too far. I expect some adjustments to be made.

Click to expand...

I agree with this, and I also feel as though a crafting overhaul is in the works... maybe with a plethora of new weapons, armors, and tools.. (L) of course, and probably with improved stats that make them an affordable alternative to UL SIB weapons.

One can hope at least!

Rocket192 said:

EP bps = Residue is cheaper; gun/attachment crafting is boosted...
EP bps 2 = mining amps get cheaper, big amp miners flood the market...

Click to expand...

Unfortunately those are not true.

Crafters are not using many minerals (take my word for it), compared to before the EP bps were introduced... the big gamblers and residue makers don't want to pay MU for resources if they don't have to.

This has resulted in:

1) lower resource MUs (lack of demand from crafters)

2) less amped mining (it's dumb to amp when your average MU is only 110% instead of the 120% it was before the EP bps)

EP bps do only one good thing for the economy: they produce cheap residue. Their negative effects far outweigh any positives. They also allow crafters to have fun without paying MU, but that's not a benefit to the economy.

That and also the trickle down effect from the res Mu crashing, for new players starting out and even on quite a bit of older players, sometimes that res Mu would really save your ass... Or at least make up a nice chunk on bad runs.

Look at long term... don't be blinded by short term. More residue = more l items on the market at full tt in a few months at prices you will enjoy as a buyer... just because your daily nickel and diming other players out of pocket change days are temporarily over does not mean those days are gone forever. Adjust or die... crafters have it easier now? Get your butt to a crafting machine just like all the hunters did that converted to being miners a few years ago. History is repeating itself. Look for the bad wolf.

MA is more interested in keeping the Planet Partners happy and introducing other methods to get large amounts of money fast for doing next to nothing. PP pay to get their planet and they advertise to get players to join. MA makes things like Equus that is copy paste of Quad, ComPets and even made players buy a portion of Calypso sale that fell through with CLD.

As I see it MA must be making a shit load of PED from the explosive BPs. We all gasp at the ATHs but for every 10000PED ATH that player will be losing a tonne of PED in the process barely breaking even. So in effective the gamblers have their fix while making residue cheaper. Cheap residue means cheap crafting and crafters need more mats so hunters and miners benefit. I think it was necessary.

Major drawback is MA overregulation to market. Even closed economy is homeostatic and eventualy evening to state when if any unfair advantage or irregularity exist it gets compensated with time.

Constant new drops, messing with loot tables, EP bp's events removong and introducing new tools branches to craft/loot etc. is in EU economy such regulation.

The more MA try balance things out the more influenntial decisions they have to make, which makes various economy aspects like prices or aviablity unbalanced. They seems to not see that it simply not working and best for economy is to leave id for some time to itself with some basic rules.

Few Scars said:

As I see it MA must be making a shit load of PED from the explosive BPs. We all gasp at the ATHs but for every 10000PED ATH that player will be losing a tonne of PED in the process barely breaking even. So in effective the gamblers have their fix while making residue cheaper. Cheap residue means cheap crafting and crafters need more mats so hunters and miners benefit. I think it was necessary.

Click to expand...

They still only take their cut... 10% in the case of crafting..

As mentioned in the OP, MA's revenue state can be fairly accurately determined by CLD payouts and ROIs. This summer/fall payouts stooped to the low of the ~2.5 ped range... which is despicable.. and around 50% of what MA should be making..

I think that until we see consistent 4.5-5 ped weekly payouts, MA will continue to hurt..

This may also be why they're pressing compets so much.. they need the added revenue, and there's only so much they can do with the now limited playerbase in EU..

On the matter of the player base and L-weapons prices... we can see that weapons (mainly laser) have dramatically increased in price.. which is fantastic.. the population at icarus and boreas has more than doubled since my observations in november/december... Maybe with looted L weapons becoming so pricey crafters will start crafting weapons to sell at 120-130%??

Only time will tell.. but things are looking up in terms of a growing depositing player base. I'm optimistic of the coming changes in 2015.. but I have my reservations. It can't be a MA wins-screw playerbase environment or I just won't play.. So MA needs to continue being creative when changing/shaping the universe.. Space delivery system is just another way for that to happen, as it will cause decay and involve fees, both of which will add to MA revenue..

My prediction is CLD prices rise to 1800 by May, then back down to 1500 over summer.. If all goes will we may see TT+2000 CLD prices in the fall/winter of 2015.