Luck variable when creating avatar?

Do you think there is a luck variable when creating avatar?

  • Yes

    Votes: 23 22.3%
  • Maybe

    Votes: 19 18.4%
  • No

    Votes: 61 59.2%

  • Total voters
    103
Almost every MMO in existence has at some point or another introduced some "incentives" for new players to join/subscribe, or for old/returning players to get hooked again. It's completely natural and healthy for a business to do these things.

It's a simple calculation. How can we get players to sign up / come back without pissing off the current playerbase? Risk vs Reward. The "dynamic" loot system in EU makes practical application of these strategies extremely simple and almost impossible to track/analyze.
 
EU is definitely not a fair place, and it's definitely random.. So random that one avatar could loot 3 Halloween rings in 20 boxes and one could buy 10000 boxes and not find a single thing worth any true value.

Sorry, but that's not random; it's bordering on statistical impossibility. In places that are truly random--like a casino--that NEVER happens.
 
Sorry, but that's not random; it's bordering on statistical impossibility. In places that are truly random--like a casino--that NEVER happens.

I think you're confusing the terms possible with impossible. I'm sure it is possible, provided MA doesn't limit the amount of them released into loot every X amount of hours.. Even then it's still possible if those 20 boxes aren't opened at the same time, but rather over the course of a week or more.

And yeah that does happen in casinos. Statistical impossibilities like winning a car in a lottery contest where your number is chosen and then you have to participate in a series of chance driven games with large pillow-like dice with X number of other competitors where a statitistically impossible (1:24,000,000) chance of both getting your number drawn and rolling the series of dice required to actually win the car occurs.

Yeah I've seen that happen. 1:24,000,000 is probably the odds of looting more than one Halloween ring right? Or worse maybe?

Statistics indicate that there is always a possibility, and never an impossibility for anything to occur provided nothing bars that statistical possibility from occurring.

This is why many casinos and businesses take out insurance on such gambles and contests in the event that they might actually lose and have to pay up.
 
I think you're oversimplifying by considering an extremely fortunate event as a one-time thing. Sure, it's possible to win the lottery, or win a car; SOMEBODY will. But the probability to win several times becomes so statistically improbable that it's infinitesimal. It would take years, if not decades, for a player to wander through a casino and win several jackpots; not a single day.

Yet, that very thing happens all the time in EU. How improbable is that, if everything were truly random? Infinitesimal odds.
 
It's so sweet to theorize about things.
Oh i'm so impossibly unlucky. Oh he's so infinitely lucky. It's like one big sweet lullaby...

Until someone asks, where's your proof? You saw a newbie get 2 HoFs. Allright, suppose the higher probability for success right after (re)entering the game is a reality. Mind you, there's no proof either way, the newcomer who does that is highly visible and remembered for years. In the exact same timeframe there's myriad of other newcomers just like him who get nothing. You don't see them, and their memory fades away quietly like they never existed at all.

Humans are pattern-seeking story-telling animals, and we are quite adept at telling stories about patterns, whether they exist or not.

Reality check: find one single documented case that proves luck outside the average parameters.
by "documented" i mean long-term hunting/mining log. And by "long-term" i mean at least thousands of looting events.
* And why's that? 'Cause u can flip a coin 3 times and get heads all the time.
However, if u keep doing this 1mil times u will always get 50% heads/50% tails.
So IF the task is finding out what the built in average luck factor for your avatar is, THEN the further away form the initial 3 tries and closer to 1million - the more accurate will be your results. U might like or not like this, but regardless, this is how reality works in our current universe.


Until we have something more tangible than rumors, impressions and subjective opinions, the best we can do is to vote "Maybe" in this poll. (Which is what i did)
 
It's hard for many to set aside envy. You know the type. .. the person who bitches every time someone gets a ring.. or gets a hit from Explosives or hits a big one in mining... and then bitches because when you do said things to chase a HOF (shouldn't ever).. their ped cards are depleted... not realize the fell into the gamblers' trap.

No one's claim that there are lucky avatars is founded by math. It is proclaimed by feelings, envy, and jealousy. All which are not scientific methods for which to make hypotheses. It is methods of undisciplined people with perception bias
 
Thread just confirms what I already know..

Ya'll be crazy.

I'm right, $5 is right, and anyone else who believes this is random.
 
I truly dont understand some answers to this topic.

Why does everyone concentrate on the word "LUCK" instead of the word "VARIABLE"... A variable is not luck at all, its math, and can be done...

I wanted to see if someone could share their experience with creating another avatar, to have more plausible data. Since no one posted anything relevant, then for me this topic is not interesting anymore and I'll just let a few more posts before I ask for the lock of this.

But I thank all for any input and thought put into this thread :)

Thanks,
True :bandit:
 
It's hard for many to set aside envy. You know the type. .. the person who bitches every time someone gets a ring.. or gets a hit from Explosives or hits a big one in mining... and then bitches because when you do said things to chase a HOF (shouldn't ever).. their ped cards are depleted... not realize the fell into the gamblers' trap.

No one's claim that there are lucky avatars is founded by math. It is proclaimed by feelings, envy, and jealousy. All which are not scientific methods for which to make hypotheses. It is methods of undisciplined people with perception bias

I'm afraid your claims aren't any more founded by math & scientific methods than anyone else's. Everyone's perception is biased, yours included. Not all "unlucky avatars" are undisciplined or envious/jealous. As some have stated here, the longer you play, the more things (supposedly) balance themselves out. This is NOT always the case, though.

There are players who complain (perhaps erringly, during a bad spell for example) that they are "unlucky". Then suddenly loot improves, for a spell. Good for them. However, there are a distinct minority of avatars here, who have played a LONG time, but never had an uber, a loot over 1K TT value, for example. I challenge you to find another avatar that has in the neighborhood of 100K skills or level 50 in their main profession who has NEVER had an uber--in ANY profession. Yes, there are certainly players who've reached those levels in a faster period of time, but 100K skills is 100K skills, REGARDLESS of how long it took...

I remember years ago someone put up a poll of who else reached level 50 or something in that neighborhood who never had an uber, and there was only 1 other person besides me who met that infinitesimally-possible level of "bad luck". I've made bets with disciples that they'd uber before I did, even though I'd played 6 years and they were bald-faced n00bs. I have yet to lose one of those bets (cuz I've never ubered).

I also "grew up" playing this game with similarly-skilled and similarly-progressing hunters and we compared the frequency and speed at which each of us hit our first globals, or first uber, relative to our primary hunting skills, and the results THROUGHOUT our development were very different. Yes, there was some math involved, not mere perception. Some of you say "then HUNT more"; well to that I reply, "So how many ubers did YOU have by the time you reached 100K skills/level 50?" ;)

For example, my in-game friends at the time both had their first global (or more than one) by the time they reached 400 in laser sniper. I didn't get one until I'd hit 800, which as you know, takes more than twice as long to reach than 400. Maybe 3 times as long. By the time I'd had my first global, they'd each had 5 or 6. We hunted the same amount, mostly the same mobs, and were playing more or less the same amount of time. One of those friends looted an Imp MK2 from a Longu. Over a decade later and I still haven't had a loot over 1K TT value, in hunting, mining or crafting.

I have several blog entries that reveal some very interesting observations of my hunts over the years; feel free to read through them. There's a lot more going on than "perception bias". :)

The bottom line is, until you have played the game as long as the most-unfortunate-few among us have, and experienced what WE have, you can't pretend to know what you're talking about or have the answers or revelations that we've had.
 
I truly dont understand some answers to this topic.

Why does everyone concentrate on the word "LUCK" instead of the word "VARIABLE"... A variable is not luck at all, its math, and can be done...

I agree, that's why I've always used quotes to frame the word "luck", because there's no such thing as "luck"; everything is all programmed SOMEHOW. It's a mystery to most, but it's still programmed.
 
I just know that 90% return is 90% return..

One avatar will reach it with a 10k hof, another will attain it by means of 20 500 ped hofs.

One avatar will cycle 2-3k per week and complain about never hitting a 1k+ loot, another will cycle 25k per week and hit monthly 5-digit hofs.

Math is math.
 
I just know that 90% return is 90% return..

One avatar will reach it with a 10k hof, another will attain it by means of 20 500 ped hofs.

One avatar will cycle 2-3k per week and complain about never hitting a 1k+ loot, another will cycle 25k per week and hit monthly 5-digit hofs.

Math is math.

That's just you showing trite examples of how YOU believe the system works, that conveniently add up. :laugh:
 
That's just you showing trite examples of how YOU believe the system works, that conveniently add up. :laugh:

And this pretty much shows that it doesn't matter what anyone says, what logs are posted (I've posted mine.. where are yours).. you'll believe in whatever you want to believe.. whatever conspiracy makes sense to you even though they are easily refuted by math.

Some people's behavior and gear setups allows them to roll globals while others have deep losses followed by big hofs. What I can tell you is that since August 2013, when I began playing a 3rd time and began keeping records, my tt returns across all 3 professions is over 90%. If you take a small snapshot during that time.. anywhere on the curve, you'll see 42% returns (because I'm doing something like 15 vamps.. improper run size) and 300% returns (because of a nice hof).

I don't really believe in the 90% bar.. I think it is higher mostly because the gamblers who leave peds on the table makes it so that I can earn more. But even if that isn't true, it gives you a bar to shoot for as you engage in any of the 3 professions.
 
I remember years ago someone put up a poll of who else reached level 50 or something in that neighborhood who never had an uber, and there was only 1 other person besides me who met that infinitesimally-possible level of "bad luck".
I didn't get any 1k+ HoFs before lvl 50. My playstyle was always cautious, mobs relatively small(er) for my level than for the classical gambler-type player (out of the real gambling passion or simply 'cause of being badly informed about the game mechanics).

Then again, my example can't possibly disprove your avatar's unusually low luck-variable. As far as i know, it could be true or it could be just another perception bias.
Possibly, maybe... :scratch2:

***

The topic of relatively more stable Vs. unstable returns has been discussed on this very forum countless times. Some avatars seem to be clearly more stable (many low level globals), others tend to be much more unstable (bigger HoF's or even ATH's with periods of low loot inbetween).
The question about reasons for this remain unclear. It is largely believed that weapons with high dpp seem to cause more stable returns, while weapons with low dpp more volatility. It's possible, however that many other factors play into this. Some ppl have proposed this might be something that's programmed into avatar at the creation time. Who knows?



@OP: If u think about it, there's absolutely no difference if we call it "luck" or "a variable that determines longterm average return".
 
And this pretty much shows that it doesn't matter what anyone says, what logs are posted (I've posted mine.. where are yours).. you'll believe in whatever you want to believe.. whatever conspiracy makes sense to you even though they are easily refuted by math.

Some people's behavior and gear setups allows them to roll globals while others have deep losses followed by big hofs. What I can tell you is that since August 2013, when I began playing a 3rd time and began keeping records, my tt returns across all 3 professions is over 90%. If you take a small snapshot during that time.. anywhere on the curve, you'll see 42% returns (because I'm doing something like 15 vamps.. improper run size) and 300% returns (because of a nice hof).

I don't really believe in the 90% bar.. I think it is higher mostly because the gamblers who leave peds on the table makes it so that I can earn more. But even if that isn't true, it gives you a bar to shoot for as you engage in any of the 3 professions.

Once again this is correct.. Post detailed logs showing returns properly calculated, then we'll talk.

My logs have consistently shown 91-95% TT return after decay.. for both hunting and mining. Hunting is actually closer to 97% right now because I don't do it much anymore and finished on a decent global streak for a week or two.

And this is the last time I suggest this...

If you feel like your avatar is "cursed" then chip out skills and transfer everything to a new avatar and have MA delete your old one.. it's really easy and they've done it for players before. The rule is one active account per player, meaning you can create a new avatar after every huge hof if you feel like it would help... But maybe that's the big secret.. if avatar luck and personal loot pools existed why would MA allow players to do this?
 
what you guys dont understand in this thread? its about luck variable per ava.. so what ever your returns are means shit...
 
That's just you showing trite examples of how YOU believe the system works, that conveniently add up. :laugh:

Isn't it funny how ALL logs on this forum, 'happen' to add up to the same or better.


Rgds

Ace
 
what you guys dont understand in this thread? its about luck variable per ava.. so what ever your returns are means shit...

Yes, but all avatars has the same chance of success. There's no mechanical difference in the "luck factor."
 
OK, lets push this - are you all saying if I put in $5,0000 a month that I should expect to lose at least $500 per month?
 
OK, lets push this - are you all saying if I put in $5,0000 a month that I should expect to lose at least $500 per month?

No, time has nothing to do with it. Cycled peds does. If you go through 5,000 (i presume you meant) peds you will lose in tt, 500 peds. Irrelevant if it takes an hour or ten years to go through that 5,000 peds.

Leaving you with 4500 peds. Again you go through 4,500 in decay, you will get back 90% ish, so lose 450 ped.

etc

etc

This is presuming you get nothing of markup.


Rgds

Ace
 
if you cycle 50k ped a month expect to loose around 5k peds what some people are traying to say if you have anouf big bank role you should do it for free but you still loose 5k peds depo it or take a morgage on the house and depo it at once your still loosing 5k peds

90 to 95 % is still to high for all players unless you know how the game is rig to know how get just profit
 
I woild never deposit that amount of cash into something like this...

Predict the system first, then go big..

if you cycle 50k ped a month expect to loose around 5k peds what some people are traying to say if you have anouf big bank role you should do it for free but you still loose 5k peds depo it or take a morgage on the house and depo it at once your still loosing 5k peds

90 to 95 % is still to high for all players unless you know how the game is rig to know how get just profit
 
I woild never deposit that amount of cash into something like this...

Predict the system first, then go big..

You are predicting the system for years now considering your totally weird loot theories...just accept a kinda fixed long term TT return and compensate with MU. All it takes.
 
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