Btw it seems that chance to drop is proportional to the value in points the star has. For example if you hunt long enough you should end with pattern like this having:
~5000 x 1 pointers
~1000 x 5 pointers
~500 x 10 pointers
~200 x 25 pointers
~125 x 50 pointers
~50 x 100 pointers
~10 x 500 pointers
~5 x 1000 pointers
~1 x 5000 pointer
(total 45k points)
At least they seems to follow the normal distirbution like this pattern for me (with small deviations of course but no more than 10%). I am hunting in aranea 3 solo. In other categories it may be that there is different pattern (more high valued pointers since less kills for same hp).
This means two things:
1) if you loot 5k pointer before looting 5 times 1k pointer - you should consider yourself really lucky
2) it is possible to estimate with good accuracy the amount of points people have based on the rare star drops. Just multiply by 3 the number of total points person has in EL history (since 500, 1000 and 5000 pointers are 1/3 of all the points in the pattern).
Considering some people might actually be more lucky than others and loot 5k and 1k pointers MORE often and/or the distirbution is a bit towards high stars in higher categores then i guess estimating somewhere between multiplying times 2 and times 3 the points they have in EL history is good.
So if someone already has 30k points in EL tracked - he has somewhere between 60k-90k total poitns for sure
.
Of course he might have done much more than 40h so this shows total score only before normalisation (but if you are eager to know exact amount of hours one has spent in instances you can manually extract this info too if you check his hunting history and mark continous hours of hunting MM mobs - if he is not hidden on EL that is of course - with +-2 hours accuracy).
Just my 2pec observation - nothing that really matters
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Falagor