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[Arkadia Underground Deed] drop price ?

billairboy said:
I did not say the CLD was worth 1770 either at the current ROi..... :silly2:
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But you can stop right here. No one asked if it's worth it or not..the question is will they go up or down. And most will say that they will go up in value since:

1) They are no longer sold on the webstore
2) Arkadia developers are working hard to add new missions to the underground.
3) They are so cheap even at 500% markup people will buy over CLDs.
 
OZtwo said:
But you can stop right here. No one asked if it's worth it or not..the question is will they go up or down. And most will say that they will go up in value since:
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The make a valuation of an asset it pretty fundamentally to be able to predict if the price will go up or down in the long run.
 
Its completely possible that the price will drop a lot. Don't forget there are thousands more AUD than CLD and its completely possible that most of the people who have bought them, have bought them to resell, so until they have re-sold them, the price will go down.
 
Ancient said:
Its completely possible that the price will drop a lot. Don't forget there are thousands more AUD than CLD and its completely possible that most of the people who have bought them, have bought them to resell, so until they have re-sold them, the price will go down.
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true , i think will drop
 
billairboy said:
I did not say the CLD was worth 1770 either at the current ROi..... :silly2:

But it's lot of risk in both.

Some of the risk you take if you buy them:

1. The risk of the deeds it self, we can't know it he payout will increase or decrease. Look at the CLDs, the have gone down from the start.

2. The company risk of MA. You need MA alive and kicking if you want the peds converted to really money. MA could close down both the game and the company tomorrow, next year, but someday they will. Nothing last for ever. Let's assume you are "happy" with 5% ROI, that means you need 20 years to even get the money back. It's a big risk the game will not exist in 20 years.

3. For non-US players we take a currency risk. The USD is very strong at the moment, but it could easily go back to the value it had just two years ago, that could mean a value decrease with around 20% , or even more. Of cource it could also go the other way, an even stronger USD, but I don't think so, because that would be hard for USA to handle.

So in combination a lot of risk, and risk means you should have a high return on your investment. If that means 15% or 20% is up to the investor to decide. But 5%? way too low.....
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Yes, more risk does equate to a need for higher return but i think your missing the point as to who is buying these deeds and why. Most people holding deeds of any kind are players looking to suppliment there ingame activities, this group of people are content with a much lower percent of return then a investor would need.
 
For a lot of people the risk is zero or very low risk
My example:
I held 100 cd's which I mostly bought For 1000 peds each.
I have had plenty of income over the years which I withdrew from the game.
I sold most of my clds in december for 1950 each, I bought 2310 auds for 53 /56 ped , I withdrew the rest. Auds are Now worth a lot more than 53 peds. The peds that are spent on my stack of auds are for the most part pure profit, because the initial investment is already back in my pocket.
I am Now buying clds from the income from auds. And some compet ones for fun.
 
melander said:
Yes, more risk does equate to a need for higher return but i think your missing the point as to who is buying these deeds and why. Most people holding deeds of any kind are players looking to suppliment there ingame activities, this group of people are content with a much lower percent of return then a investor would need.
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I agree on that, that was why I bought CLD when they come out, to finance some of my playtime. But that was one the price was 1000 ped and the payout was a higher, the return was around 25%. I would not do that with only 5% return, it would not be worth the risk.
 
Spawn said:
For a lot of people the risk is zero or very low risk
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The risk is zero? Seriously? No business is risk free. Can you guarantee MA will survive for ten more years? And you can't know for sure the number of players will not decline both in EU and on Arkadia.
 
billairboy said:
The risk is zero? Seriously? No business is risk free. Can you guarantee MA will survive for ten more years? And you can't know for sure the number of players will not decline both in EU and on Arkadia.
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hehe about MA ... they pay so slow .. when u extract peds from game ..!
 
billairboy said:
The risk is zero? Seriously? No business is risk free. Can you guarantee MA will survive for ten more years? And you can't know for sure the number of players will not decline both in EU and on Arkadia.
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Its zero risk if you were going to burn the money anyway, it appears that lots of people have money to burn here :laugh:
 
billairboy said:
The make a valuation of an asset it pretty fundamentally to be able to predict if the price will go up or down in the long run.
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UMM??? What?! :eyecrazy:You been doing it all long here in this thread?:lolup:
 
billairboy said:
The risk is zero? Seriously? No business is risk free. Can you guarantee MA will survive for ten more years? And you can't know for sure the number of players will not decline both in EU and on Arkadia.
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Maybe AUD comes to zero or be bought back from PP, who knows that!
But I'm 100% sure MA will be in the market for another 2-3 decades at least!
Maybe without the same name but that's all.
 
sorry OP but anything you uttered so far in this thread sounds like a pretty transparent & lame attempt at creating a panic or something...

Missed your chance to get your cake on webshop? Now hoping for lower entry price?

That's all i'm reading between your lines

Not gonna happen :nana:
 
LuisArkadov said:
sorry OP but anything you uttered so far in this thread sounds like a pretty transparent & lame attempt at creating a panic or something...

Missed your chance to get your cake on webshop? Now hoping for lower entry price?

That's all i'm reading between your lines

Not gonna happen :nana:
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That's the impression that I got, too.
 
billairboy said:
The risk is zero? Seriously? No business is risk free. Can you guarantee MA will survive for ten more years? And you can't know for sure the number of players will not decline both in EU and on Arkadia.
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I dont need 10 years. The original investment is out of the game. And then some. Every ped I withdraw now is just more profit.
 
[System]: Entropia Universe time: 2016-02-04 17:30:37

aud price in auction for 1 = 67.99
10 = 669.99
 
Spawn said:
I dont need 10 years. The original investment is out of the game. And then some. Every ped I withdraw now is just more profit.
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Well, we are talking about the money from the deeds, not any other profit you make....
You can't say "it no risk with the deeds, because I have already earn enough on hunting, crafting, trade" or what you have done....

OZtwo said:
UMM??? What?! :eyecrazy:You been doing it all long here in this thread?:lolup:
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Yes? I try to make a valuation of the deeds to predict if the value should go up and down, that was I sad is fundamentally to make a prediction? :scratch2:
 
billairboy said:
Yes? I try to make a valuation of the deeds to predict if the value should go up and down, that was I sad is fundamentally to make a prediction? :scratch2:
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And yes we have been doing the same. But what's kind of odd here is that after stating some very simple facts about the current status of the deeds you are bone dry set in saying that they will loose value and are not worth buying over 50ped? And that there is where you kind of went off on the subject of the thread since the thread subject is asking if the deeds will go up or down in price and not if they are worth it.

But to make if feel as if you won this worthless debate I will say that you are right here. The AUDs will over time be worthless and shouldn't be bought over 50ped.
 
billairboy said:
Well, we are talking about the money from the deeds, not any other profit you make....
You can't say "it no risk with the deeds, because I have already earn enough on hunting, crafting, trade" or what you have done....



Yes? I try to make a valuation of the deeds to predict if the value should go up and down, that was I sad is fundamentally to make a prediction? :scratch2:
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You have trouble reading? I bought the stuff when introduced for 1000 ped each, some for 1100 when some anonimous bidder made sure all clds got sold out. I sold those deeds for 1950 mostly last december. In between I got a lot of income, which I withdrew, together with all the profit I made from the rise in price, which I withdrew.
I bought AUDs for 53-55 peds from the rest of the peds which were leftover. This amounted to 2300 and a bit more of AUDs. from the income they generate I will buy some clds again.

But the ultimate message I am trying to send is.. My original investment got payed back with interest and I still have my original investment ingame.. not from hunting, not from crafting, not from trading, pure from cld interest and the almost doubling of the worth of them.

so.. zero risk for me.. because the money I spend back in the day is back on my bank account with interest.
 
billairboy said:
50ped/dead is more than they really are worth, at that price or more it's a speculation that Arkadia will get a lot of more players. Can't see that happen any time soon, will be a slow progress if any.
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true ;) :yay::yay::yay:
 
OZtwo said:
And yes we have been doing the same. But what's kind of odd here is that after stating some very simple facts about the current status of the deeds you are bone dry set in saying that they will loose value and are not worth buying over 50ped? And that there is where you kind of went off on the subject of the thread since the thread subject is asking if the deeds will go up or down in price and not if they are worth it.

But to make if feel as if you won this worthless debate I will say that you are right here. The AUDs will over time be worthless and shouldn't be bought over 50ped.
Click to expand...

If AUD value is less than 50 ped then aud price will have a tendency to gravitate towards that lower valuation.


Spawn said:
You have trouble reading? I bought the stuff when introduced for 1000 ped each, some for 1100 when some anonimous bidder made sure all clds got sold out. I sold those deeds for 1950 mostly last december. In between I got a lot of income, which I withdrew, together with all the profit I made from the rise in price, which I withdrew.
I bought AUDs for 53-55 peds from the rest of the peds which were leftover. This amounted to 2300 and a bit more of AUDs. from the income they generate I will buy some clds again.

But the ultimate message I am trying to send is.. My original investment got payed back with interest and I still have my original investment ingame.. not from hunting, not from crafting, not from trading, pure from cld interest and the almost doubling of the worth of them.

so.. zero risk for me.. because the money I spend back in the day is back on my bank account with interest.
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We are Only looking at aud and not your profits from CLD.

Considering how long it takes to get your return on investment for AUD it doesn't make sense to buy them at such inflated values.

People are effectively creating a bubble on AUD with them at current prices and it's liable to burst.

However, people are not behaving logically accordingly to AUD valuations and perhaps they never will start behaving in a logical manner...
 
GeorgeSkywalker said:
If AUD value is less than 50 ped then aud price will have a tendency to gravitate towards that lower valuation.
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Exactly!
People think CLD aren't worth 1000 peds, yet they sell for 1700+
People think AUD aren't worth 50 peds, yet they sell for 65+

In the end it doesn't matter what individual players think they are worth. It's a matter of what sellers and buyers think they are worth. Some people need 20% ROI, some are happy with 5% ROI, others don't care about ROI and just want CLD plots, or want to support a planet partner.

The way it looks now is that CLD will slowly climb back towards 1900, AUD will remain somewhat stable (60-75 peds) due to people selling them now for a nice profit, and will increase in the future when the supply gets lower.

This is off course only till the compet launch, or until some other deeds become available. Then we'll see the usual crash in markup of existing deeds so that people can get the shiny new deeds.

Personally i hope both CLD and AUD drop in markup since i have some of both on my shopping list, but i doubt that will happen anytime soon. (unless i am totally wrong about compets).
 
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i have some AUDs, we'll see how much they'll pay everyday and the AUD price will set on it
 
Reply

GeorgeSkywalker said:
If AUD value is less than 50 ped then aud price will have a tendency to gravitate towards that lower valuation.




We are Only looking at aud and not your profits from CLD.

Considering how long it takes to get your return on investment for AUD it doesn't make sense to buy them at such inflated values.

People are effectively creating a bubble on AUD with them at current prices and it's liable to burst.

However, people are not behaving logically accordingly to AUD valuations and perhaps they never will start behaving in a logical manner...
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You obviously haven't been around in the game in the last few years. CLD have offered right around 10-12% yearly roi for at least the past year. They are trading at right around 1.75*their original value. I don't see AUD dropping below an average of 2 pec / day payouts and I think most people commenting negatively in this thread have no idea what payouts consistently have been for the past month. With 2 pec per day average payouts and comparing to CLD then I would say we are going to stay in between 60-70 ped / deed in the long run no problem. It only makes sense. Think about it if CLD go up to 2000 per then that drops there roi even lower. At that point smart investors would switch over to AUD if it's a better buy. Also I think AUD is better because at 60-70 ped it allows a much larger portion of the player base to invest. With CLD trading at such high prices certain players unfortunately just don't have that kind of money to make the investment.
 
m0rr0w2 said:
You obviously haven't been around in the game in the last few years. CLD have offered right around 10-12% yearly roi for at least the past year. They are trading at right around 1.75*their original value. I don't see AUD dropping below an average of 2 pec / day payouts and I think most people commenting negatively in this thread have no idea what payouts consistently have been for the past month. With 2 pec per day average payouts and comparing to CLD then I would say we are going to stay in between 60-70 ped / deed in the long run no problem. It only makes sense. Think about it if CLD go up to 2000 per then that drops there roi even lower. At that point smart investors would switch over to AUD if it's a better buy. Also I think AUD is better because at 60-70 ped it allows a much larger portion of the player base to invest. With CLD trading at such high prices certain players unfortunately just don't have that kind of money to make the investment.
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i think it might be the fact this time last year the payout was about .75/day, yeah there are changes and i think these changes will give about 2/day over the next year (maybe falling to 1-1.5/day towards the last quarter). hopefully there will be some new content added by the end of the year to keep interest in there

quick calc tho, if a CLD earns average 3.5ped/week. Thats 50pec a day. a AUD gets 2pec a day:-

So
50/2= 25, so thats 25 AUD to 1 CLD

a CLD trades for 1800
1800/25 = 72, thats AUD able to hit 72ped before value is the same
 
The Jetman said:
i think it might be the fact this time last year the payout was about .75/day, yeah there are changes and i think these changes will give about 2/day over the next year (maybe falling to 1-1.5/day towards the last quarter). hopefully there will be some new content added by the end of the year to keep interest in there

quick calc tho, if a CLD earns average 3.5ped/week. Thats 50pec a day. a AUD gets 2pec a day:-

So
50/2= 25, so thats 25 AUD to 1 CLD

a CLD trades for 1800
1800/25 = 72, thats AUD able to hit 72ped before value is the same
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You are overestimating CLD payout while underestimating AUD's. Cool.:yup:
 
What also blows my mind is how people don't understand how FANTASTIC 5% yearly ROI is.

You can't get that IRL risk free. ANYWHERE.


25%? Fucking HELL! AMAZING.
5% ROI is enough that most people would never work a day again if they invested their entire savings. Why don't they? There is no risk free 5%, as it is such a dramatic profit. Yall are insane and have no IRL investments so you hate on virtual ones eh?
 
entropian12 said:
You are overestimating CLD payout while underestimating AUD's. Cool.:yup:
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not really, avg for CLD over the last year was more than 3.5 a week, and CLD was way less. over the last few weeks AUD have been higher, but they will likely settle down.

doing the same at AUD getting 2.5, makes the AUD 90ped (which after the way they performed before the update is way to high risk) before equal. but if CLD price then dropped to 1600, the AUD equals at 80.

im not hating on them tho, i have 40 AUD and only 2 CLD, so better AUD performance suits me fine
 
Venture Bros said:
What also blows my mind is how people don't understand how FANTASTIC 5% yearly ROI is.

You can't get that IRL risk free. ANYWHERE.


25%? Fucking HELL! AMAZING.
5% ROI is enough that most people would never work a day again if they invested their entire savings. Why don't they? There is no risk free 5%, as it is such a dramatic profit. Yall are insane and have no IRL investments so you hate on virtual ones eh?
Click to expand...

RL currency exchange rates need to be taken into consideration as well, especially if your RL currency isn't the US dollar. The dollar is very strong against a lot of currencies right now, which I think is crazy since the US is one of the most indebted nations on the planet.

If the dollar falls its potentially good news for deposits, but buying the things when the dollar is high, in real terms would mean you're nursing a capital loss.

I also think the more different types of deeds that are sold, the greater the exposure to less deposits (short termism). It's just churning the same peds, so MA could be forced to adjust loot returns if the deposits they need are not coming in. Although that may clean out deed dividends it also has this potential that depositors might not feel they're getting good value for money.

Anyway EU never run on common sense, it runs on perceived or manipulated value, always has, always will.

Beware of smoke a mirrors, any investor needs people to deposit....cash is king.

here's a scenario for you;

Let's say MA said tomorrow, we can not sustain the level of investors over actual depositors. We need investors to deposit to keep the game afloat.

Would deed holders be prepared to deposit, to save their own investment? or just risk losing the investment.

Rick
 
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