The Changing EU Economy: An Analysis

Avon(AJ)Jerrix

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In America in the 1920s, over-speculation in the market led to an overheated economy that seemed healthy on the surface because of the activity, but in reality was unsustainable and terribly vulnerable to a crash. In Entropia Universe (EU) the economy has always been driven by players that used crafting as a medium to gamble, leading to an overheated economy driven by artificially inflated markup (MV). Rather than hunters and miners gathering mats for crafters to produce tools for hunters and miners to gather mats for crafters to produce tools, and so on, the reality was that hunters and miners and crafters gathered mats for crafters to gamble and dump the results onto the market or into the Trade Terminal (TT). The EU economy may have seemed healthy as long as MV was high, but was in fact unsustainable if only because the parent company MindArk (MA) was losing money year after year. Whether it was a plan or a series of unrelated steps, in 2012/2013 MA began making adjustments meant to reduce volatility in the marketplace and to grow the playerbase.

Crafting

Around VU14, crafting returns were adjusted such that a larger percentage of returns were migrated from Success to Near Success. Trade Terminal returns remained constant over the long term, but with little to no MV gained from near successes, crafting with even moderate MV mats was disincentivized, with the result of depressing all crafting across the board, cooling down the overheated economy, and lowering MV. At the same time, with a general decline in crafting, those items still being crafted should have seen some increase in demand. Thus, the big-gambling sector of the profession should have contracted, while the crafting-to-sell sector increased. This is in keeping with what seems to be MA's present strategy of increasing ease of play for new and lower-level players.

It is possible that this adjustment worked, but not as well as MA had hoped, and the economy remained overheated, driven by MV paid by big-gambling crafters. MA took a decisive step in VU15.1.1 which introduced Explosive Projectile blueprints (EP BPs) I through IV, and nanocubes. Rather than disincentivize gamblers from paying MV for mats, EP crafting incentivized buying a mat that had no MV...carrot rather than stick. Rather than attempt to forcibly isolate gamblers from the in-game economy, MA successfully convinced gamblers to voluntarily isolate themselves. The game has even seen some movement of big-gambling hunters and miners to EP crafting. Instead of the gamblers being driven out of the game, they have been placated and their decay is not lost. The rise of EP crafting and the earlier modifications have definitely cooled down the economy, and may have opened up the crafting profession by producing a split between gamblers and crafters. For most practical purposes, gambling has become a crafting sub-profession, in the manner of tailoring.

The emerging new conditions in crafting are lowered MV of mats, decreased competition from overproduction, and cheap metal residue, hopefully coupled with an influx of new players and a more stable, predictable economy. This will lower the threshold of entry into the profession. If crafting for personal use, lower MV will allow increased cycling through smaller, faster, runs until successful. If crafting for profit, BPs with lower MV mats will be cheaper to click, and crafted items will be easier to sell without competition from gamblers--each run made on EPs is a run not made on level 5 amps or plastic ruds. While EP gamblers try to feel out when a HOF is ripe, crafters will need to carefully study market conditions to determine whether the MV in, MV out, and success/near success will balance favorably. This also follows the seeming present MA pattern of emphasizing real-world skills over artificial in-game skills in gameplay. Of course, non-EP gambling has not been eliminated entirely, and likely never will be. Gamblers will still take breaks from EP crafting to click their other BPs, and gamblers and crafters will both continue to craft for rare BP drops and click "boosted" BPs. But, for gamblers overall, it is difficult for even low-MV mats to compete with non-MV mats, and non-EP crafting has certainly declined dramatically in the game. And if crafters, rather than gamblers, choose to gamble, it could be well-thoughtout gambles on rare item BPs, which a more predictable economy and lower MVs might make more viable. Gamblers can gamble, and crafters can craft.

While EP BPs produced a major shift in the crafting profession and the EU economy, and while further tweaking will certainly continue, major changes could also be still forthcoming. Specifically, MA seems to be using a combination of market forces and game mechanics to discourage large crafting runs, other than for EPs, in order to limit overproduction. But there have always been big crafters who preferred crafting on quantity to gambling, and if these players determine that if by selling a little under MV they can profit more on 6k clicks of sheet metal rather than 1k clicks of EP BP III, then they will continue to do so. If MA does want to limit overproduction of crafted items, it would not be a surprise to see them eventually take some further actions, such as an overall rebalance of BPs or removing the AFK feature from all crafting other than EPs.

For many years, the most cogent advice for new players who wanted to start crafting in EU was, Don't. Crafting has always been the most costly profession to learn, skill, and pursue. Eventual success required an exorbitant amount of research, abundant funds, and a commitment to lose early. This made crafting unappealing for a new or lower-level player. Hopefully, the recent changes will lower the barrier to entry and allow more players to enjoy crafting in EU.

Hunting

Hunting is the main profession in EU, and in their effort to recruit and retain new players, MA seems to have committed to making hunting the focus of the game going forward. Since the years 2013/2014, hunting has undergone several modifications in four main areas--variance, loot balance, skills, and ease-of-entry--with the twin aims of flattening the economy and simplifying gameplay for new and low-level players. Adjusting the variance of hunting returns has been ongoing since the game's beginnings, MA trying with indifferent success to find a balance between high-variance (exciting) and low-variance (sustainable) returns that would be acceptable to the hunting community, and this adjustment process will never really end. However, if MA has committed to aligning the game to newer and lower-level players in order to grow the playerbase, then the balance will have to remain weighted toward sustainability, fewer HOFs, more minis, as it is at present.

Loot on Planet Calypso was rebalanced by VU15 so that shrapnel largely took the place of oils and some other mats in large globals and HOFs, so that mobs dropped fewer types of mats, and so that what oils and mats did drop was normalized across mob maturities. Combined with earlier adjustments that lowered mats and introduced, and then increased, ammunition in loots (MV plus to MV neutral), this mirrored crafting's shift from MV returns (success) to TT returns (near-success), and facilitated low-level grinding. The elimination of "oil HOFs" reduced market volatility, the concentration of loot types made it easier to target MV mobs, and more stable TT returns allowed more cycling of peds. Again, this emphasized real-world skill in deciding which mobs to hunt. But, while this is a valid strategy to promote new-player participation, it opens the real danger of leaving no rationale for hunting high-level mobs, and so disincentivizing high-level hunters and landowners.

VU8.8 changed skill advancement from linear to progressive and created a gulf between Uber and Other that has existed since. While the definition of Uber has always been somewhat amorphous, for EU in this context, Uber may be said to be having a chance to win one of the annual Planet Calypso hunting events. Early players, and beta players before them, gained high professional levels at a low cost. Coupled with high-eco, non-SIB unlimited equipment, some have charged that those players now have a permanent and unfair advantage in the game. The skill gain changes had to be made, but the charges of unfairness were not without merit. MA has taken some action over the years to help mid-level skill advancement, first bonus skill-gain periods, then the first mission rewards, but a new focus on hunting in order to grow the playerbase makes the issue acute. Many MMO players today join a game with the goal of reaching end-game content as quickly as possible, a process which they are willing to pay for. In EU, end-game means high-level hunting. For those new players and for existing mid-level hunters, MA started to build a new road to Uber around skill boosting pills, combat buffs from pills, rings, and armor sets, and modified and tiered weapons, faps, and armor, bringing higher level mobs within the reach of more hunters. Some of those new buff items are available from the webshop, a resource new players will expect, accept, and use, while others originate in-game, providing new sources of MV. While there are valid concerns that this process might be "raising the bar" rather than "closing the gap", thus increasing cost-to-play with no benefit, certainly new players do now have options if they wish to be hunting aurli within a year of beginning play.

MindArk and Planet Calypso have also made changes to increase ease-of-entry into the game. Specifically, they are removing the provision of hunting tools from the crafters, while the tutorial and beginner missions funnel novices into the laser professions, simplifying gameplay significantly for new hunters. Rather than research for hours what weapon they should buy, a new player on Calypso receives their first weapon from the tutorial on Thule. Their second is probably looted from a puny. Their third comes from the TT. Their fourth comes from the daily mission broker. And, increasingly, the ones after that are looted by other hunters. Migration drops half a year's supply. This reduces much of a new player's frustration with the steep learning curve of the game, but eliminates arguably the largest market for crafters at the same time that MA is encouraging crafters to produce small amounts of items for actual player use. If the playerbase does expand, however, then the market for other crafted items, and even some niche guns and other weapons, will expand with it. Entropia Universe has long been complex, confusing, and somewhat intimidating for newcomers. With these changes to simplify early gameplay, and with flattened but no longer volatile MV, and with variance weighted toward sustainability, MA's ambition seems to be a sustainable model requiring less of a time/research commitment in order to play, wherein an average hunter can play steadily with a small monthly deposit, or play part-time, entering, leaving, and reentering the game easily and as often as they wish. Such streamlining of the hunting profession is justified in order to facilitate new-player growth, but hopefully not to the extent that the other professions become marginalized.

Mining

Mining over the years has experienced the most major variance swings of any profession in EU, being adjusted from "exciting" to "sustainable" and back many times, as well as seeing changes in distribution mechanics, and in resource caps. As with hunting returns, the continued fine-tuning of mining will be an ongoing process, but the recent modifications are in line with those of hunting and crafting, intended to reduce market volatility by increasing the ratio of TT to MV returns in mining overall, both by reducing variance to "sustainable" levels, and by reducing the chance of high-MV mats in towers. MA is trying to migrate MV away from high-amped indoor mining to unamped planetside mining. There have always been miners that preferred to hunt out low-volume, high-MV ores, the ruga hunters, and with a more predictable market it will be easier for MA to use game mechanics to promote this style of mining, using MV to reward exploration and dropping in new areas, drawing and redrawing personal resource maps, rather than big amp mining. It would not be a surprise if in the future the game saw more rare mats that cannot be amped when found.

The current adjustments are beneficial in that they promote a stable economy, and help MA prevent market crashes, but they also represent a danger to mining. Traditionally, mining has been considered the easiest profession in which to break-even or profit. Even for new players, the threshold for entry was not steep. Of the three professions, success in mining is the least dependent on in-game skill progression. Hunting is the most skill-dependent, with multiple weapon-paths and the persistent value of defense skills. Skills are valuable in crafting until target BPs are maxed. But many miners believe it is not even necessary to max finders, so long as target depths are in reach. More important is personal experience, firm grasp of market conditions, working knowledge of the prevailing distribution mechanics, and luck. In the past, a new player could sell even starting ores for some MV while learning the terrain, and sometimes find higher level ores and enmats. This scaled up to mid-level miners, who could make steady profits, and to high-level miners who could aspire to, and even expect to, hit high-MV towers. But the mining profession is the most vulnerable to marginalization in the present climate. Miners sell to crafters, and flattened MV has depressed mining at all levels. This could be partially mitigated by the introduction of more mined resources that are used directly or semi-directly, in the manner of oil, force nexus, and sweetstuff. At the same time, as with hunting high-level mobs, high-level mining loses much of its appeal without the chance of high MV on top of a HOF. Perhaps MA could find alternative incentives for such high level activities, such as ultra-rare mats that could only be found in tiny quantities when using high-level amps. In any case, it will take careful management by MA to keep the mining profession viable and healthy.

Vulnerabilities

In 1920s America, not all parts of the United States were prospering. A weak textile market, a slow mining industry, and low farm prices, left the southern, western, and mid western economies depressed. These weaknesses could be ignored as long as the stock market was booming. When the Depression started, these depressed regions became millstones hanging around the neck of an already crippled national economy. Similarly, the three most vital of EU's underutilized sectors are Space, PvP, and Tailoring. While the EU market was overheated and MV was high, this situation could be ignored. But with MV no longer artificially boosted, and an attempt in place to create a stable economic environment, it now becomes critical. These should all be vibrant sectors of the EU economy, but more importantly, MA's new target audience, players attracted to a science fiction combat MMO, will expect space content and will want viable PvP. If these are absent, then new players are less likely to stay on in the game. Unresolved issues with something as basic as player clothing go even further, projecting an unprofessional image. It all makes EU less attractive for a new player, and harms retention. Space should continue to be used as a barrier to the free flow of goods as long as the Planet Partners wish, but it also needs to be more. And other games will always have better PvP mechanics, but EU has a built in advantage, the Real Cash Economy (RCE). It should be a major draw to the game that PvP in EU can earn money, or at least recoup losses, and PvP and Landgrab need to be overhauled.

Conclusions

The EU economy is undergoing a fundamental change. Since the years 2012/2013, MA has attempted to halt the artificial inflation of MV and to limit over-production of mats and crafted goods. It did the first by removing the economic impact of big gamblers, unsuccessfully at first by disincentivizion, then successfully by isolation. It did the second by removing MV from large-run crafting, high-mob grinding, and big-amp mining, to smaller, more targeted activities. Thus, fewer successes and more near-successes in crafting, no oil-HOFS in hunting, and no ruga towers in mining. Markup is rarer now, and has to be more actively pursued. Players today can grind MV at low levels, but the higher they wish to play, the smarter they need to play. Or they can craft EP.

MindArk is promoting hunting as the main profession in EU. With Planet Calypso, they have greatly improved the new-player experience and essentially made play through the first ten levels free through mission rewards of universal ammunition. They have made adjustments they feel necessary to provide a stable game economy, reducing volatility and variance, so far somewhat successfully, for example, reducing the demand for mats through the introduction of EP BPs while at the same time reducing the supply dropped in loots, so that they retain a modest MV. They are shifting importance from in-game skills to real-life skills. They have introduced item buffs. The pieces are in place to inaugurate a period of gradual and steady growth. The overall focus of EU is shifting from small numbers of higher-level players to large numbers of lower- and mid-level players. The gamble is whether those large numbers will exist.

There remain, of course, areas of concern. MindArk's advertising has been dismal, although Compets, while very much a gamble, can be seen somewhat as advertising, since every participant will at least be made aware of EU. There are underutilized sectors of the game, more than the three discussed, the unrealized potential of Societies, for example. The effect on all levels of traders, the unofficial fourth profession, is unclear. High level hunting and mining have been somewhat disincentivized, which risks alienating high-level players. Mining overall is especially vulnerable to these changes, and ways to promote mining should be explored, such as events and a reevaluation of SOOTO. Without question, the ongoing and future changes being made will drive some players out of EU, but hopefully enough new players will be attracted to more than make up for that loss. All major economic shifts create problems, but, looking at these changes overall, there is reason for cautious optimism for the future of the game.
 
Too long didn't read, looks informative though.

Edit: Read this over lunch, great read. +rep
 
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One of the best posts I ever read!
 
Good read, very informative...intelligently written....thanks
 
Compets, while very much a gamble, can be seen somewhat as advertising, since every participant will at least be made aware of EU.

This still makes me laugh. MA's advertising of EU has been nothing short of pathetic up to this point.

Does anyone honestly think EU will get a single new player from ComPets? I cannot find any tangible information as to their advertising strategy. Or do just think because it's a phone app, it will instantly blow up like Candy Crush?

At least their twitter page has 95 followers :cool:

https://twitter.com/PlayComPet
 
This still makes me laugh. MA's advertising of EU has been nothing short of pathetic up to this point.

Does anyone honestly think EU will get a single new player from ComPets? I cannot find any tangible information as to their advertising strategy. Or do just think because it's a phone app, it will instantly blow up like Candy Crush?

At least their twitter page has 95 followers :cool:

https://twitter.com/PlayComPet

Entropia doesn't make millions.. so it is up to the people to advertise and this is where the affiliate system would help tremendously.

To your other comment if they will get a single player from compets jnto eu.. the answer is yes... but then you snidely set a low bar.

One main issue with compets thus far is that it is NOT a phone app in the traditional sense.. unless they have decided now to publish to the app stores.
 
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Great post, very well thought out and nicely summarised.

:)
 
tl;dr version: "They had to destroy the economy in order to save it."

(deleted)
 
The biggest problem is in my opinion is that the decay is to low in the game, on other items than weapons. The need to replace items are to low and the demand for crafted items is low. If MA should change anything to get the economy going it's increasing the decay.
 
The biggest problem is in my opinion is that the decay is to low in the game, on other items than weapons. The need to replace items are to low and the demand for crafted items is low. If MA should change anything to get the economy going it's increasing the decay.

No point in doing that. They could just remove all L weapons and armor in hunting and instead hunters farm the mats needed to craft it.
 
Liked the style. Thorough detailed analysis like reading the Financial Times or sth and Entropia being a real country. This is stylish. :cool:

Ecomomy is so so, quite ok overall I guess... It won't kill the game nor save it. For the real solutions have to look to a completely different direction thou. Mind you, this entire world is virtual, you can do anything here. Like... going to Mars could save mankind from destroying themselves... if u get my drift.
 
Saving to read when I'm not half asleep. Looks interesting and well laid out, I love a good layout :laugh:
 
The overheating of the economy was created by MA to increase deposits might not have been on purpose but it was the end result. When L was introduced it was done in a manner to benefit MA and not the players in the end they had to mess with the loot system to compensate and that led to the more "adjustments" to compensate - e.g. skill gain which had been previously nerfed to slow it down has now been massively accelerated with SIB and bonuses.

At the time most of it was accepted by the players, with welcoming arms by many, but they're now having to try and claw back the control.
 
Nice, interesting post. Definitely a good read.

+rep
 
Well summed up analysis, and broadly correct in most aspects.

The future of the economy for me has to address two key areas - supply of fresh income, and demand for MU.

For the vast majority of the games participants (excluding those who are net gain; important advertising tools but ultimately unrealistic to include):

Income supply is solely dictated by fresh content (to keep your existing playerbase) and marketing (too increase the playerbase). I've seen huge content improvements over the last few years - one of the reasons why I came back to the game - with missions, new areas, interesting waves, etc. And that's just on Calypso.

Marketing however is lagging behind - hopefully will improve with ComPets but I doubt it will provide any improvement unless in the very unlikely (due to market competition) that it is a success.

Demand for MU... well, that's another story!
 
A great thread, very good analysis of the economy.
I think that while MA is opening the doors to low cost game play, they risk the big depositors moving away. I think careful management of investments is part of a strong economy. Any change made must take into account older items and their value.
 
I'm sorry, I'm going to have to go against the grain with this.

Just because a post is colourfully written and sounds good, doesn't mean we automatically accept it as a quality piece.

As much as I admire the long post and time it took to write it, I find much of it somewhat meaningless.

In America in the 1920s, over-speculation in the market led to an overheated economy that seemed healthy on the surface because of the activity, but in reality was unsustainable and terribly vulnerable to a crash.

In Entropia Universe (EU) the economy has always been driven by players that used crafting as a medium to gamble, leading to an overheated economy driven by artificially inflated markup (MV).

This makes little sense, I believe you are referring to “over supply” of crafted equipment, rather than “overheated” economy.

You’re suggesting that hard core crafting is the “core” of EU activity. I disagree;

I believe the most active pursuits in EU have always been hunting and mining. Oils were in high demand in 2006 and even then animal oil for example trading at around 105% (i.e. TT+5%). In fact there has consistently been an oversupply of mats especially oils for crafters. Even after shrapnel appeared, there still appears to be enough oils for sale at low prices to satisfy any crafting. In essence the market was never overheated, the population simply didn’t exist “ever” for the excess amount of crafted goods or the amount of mats on the market available for crafters

An overheated economy suggests prices are sky high on everything, so when the crash comes prices dive. Yet when ever in this game has there been consistently "good" MU on regular mats? Players have always been screaming for MU, and it is MA that removed it, not the players refusing to find it.

I won't get into high value items, because that's a different kettle of fish that MA played with, to transfer MU to them from the players. (Direct depositing for quality items).


Rather than hunters and miners gathering mats for crafters to produce tools for hunters and miners to gather mats for crafters to produce tools, and so on, the reality was that hunters and miners and crafters gathered mats for crafters to gamble and dump the results onto the market or into the Trade Terminal (TT). The EU economy may have seemed healthy as long as MV was high, but was in fact unsustainable if only because the parent company MindArk (MA) was losing money year after year.

This makes no sense, when was MU (or MV) high to begin with? Personally I preferred looted L weapons over crafted weapons, I always did. The MU was cheaper if you couldn't loot one and had to buy one.

The economy could never sustain a market need for producing weapons by the 100’s per run by many crafters. Even at a population peak, a crafter would simply have to dump crafted guns to the TT. I believe this was one reason MA brought in L to hopefully provide a demand for crafted weapons and to use up mats (much like L amps for mining). People crafted to gamble, it is as simple as that, it was quite clear the market (demand) would never “need” the huge excess in crafted goods.

However; what has over crafting got to do with MA losing money?

My point is, there is no correlation between oversupply of crafted equipment, and MA finances. There was never demand for so much crafted equipment in the first place. Even if every player hunted 24/7 they couldn't burn up all the crafted stuff. That is the same now as it was 10 years ago


Whether it was a plan or a series of unrelated steps, in 2012/2013 MA began making adjustments meant to reduce volatility in the marketplace and to grow the playerbase.

Then you say MA attempted to reduce volatility in the market place. What volatility? There has simply been a downward direction of everything. No peaks no troughs, just down. I don’t think MA has ever attempted to stabilise prices (the opposite of volatility), they have introduced much to “degrade” value though. I guess you could argue if everything is approaching zero….that’s a damn good job at stabilising prices….lol.

I take no pleasure with criticising someone's work, I simply do not think it makes sense. I've decided not to comment on the rest of it.

What have I missed, or is it a language problem (miss communication?)

Rick
 
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Thank you for the positive responses...actually more positive than I expected. If this analysis ends up being of any use to any of you, I will be gratified.

This still makes me laugh. MA's advertising of EU has been nothing short of pathetic up to this point.

I say dismal, you say pathetic. Well, there is room for honest disagreement.
 
What have I missed, or is it a language problem (miss communication?)

Rick

This is partly miscommunication, and partly--probably mostly--disagreement. I failed to be clear in the body of the analysis. When most economic historians refer to the overheated 1920s economy, they could be referring to industrial overproduction, market speculation, or both, but usually are referring mainly to overproduction. The two are connected, but when historians discuss the overheated market they tend to refer to it specifically, rather than to the economy as a whole.

When I talk about the overheated economy in-game, I am mainly referring to the entire economy being driven by artificially high markup. When I refer to overproduction, it usually means crafting too many items, but, in context, could also mean hunting and mining HOFs that overproduce mats and crash markup. When I refer to volatility, I mean violent, unpredictable swings in markup.

In the 1920s, the US stock market was overheated because of speculation. Stock prices had lost any connection to the production or position of the companies that issued them. People bought stocks (on margin) because they were going up in price, and they were going up in price because people bought them. Some stocks went up 20% per day, doubling in value every week. They were gambling, although many did not think of it in those terms. In Entropia, the markup of ores, enmats, and hunting loots were artificially high, unconnected to player-demand for items, driven up instead by players who used them to gamble by crafting.

You’re suggesting that hard core crafting is the “core” of EU activity. I disagree;

I am saying that hard core gambling was the core of EU activity. Gambling drove up the price of ores, enmats, loots, components, BPs, everything. It is the reason people hunted, it is the reason people mined, it is the reason people crafted. And also--the analogy is not perfect--, unlike 1920s America, this speculation led to overproduction. This is why I tended to connect the two in my analysis. Crafters had to craft something in order to gamble, dino shoes, abrer sights, jester d-1s to skill, and other items that would either be TTed or dumped on the market. A non-gambling crafter could not compete with a crafter who was willing to sell at a loss to recoup a portion of their markup. But, unlike 1920s America, overproduction was a minor problem that merely kept crafting from ever becoming a healthy, non-gambling profession. Artificially high markup was the real issue. And there was nothing necessary wrong with this. The game is an RCE sandbox, and if that was what the players wanted to make of it, then it was fine. Except that MindArk was losing money.

However; what has over crafting got to do with MA losing money?

Crafting does not. The overall economic model that evolved does.

Many posters seem to look back on pre-EP BP times, pre-PP times, pre-VU10 times, pre-VU8 times, as a golden age when all players made money until MindArk stupidly, selfishly, screwed things up. But that model was not sustainable. It cannot be proved, but I believe the the game has trended historically toward a decreased overall playerbase. All games lose players, and if they do not replace them with new players, the games eventually fail. Entropia has lost players, and I do not think it has successfully replaced them, irrespective of spikes such as VU10. It was never an easy game to play. That means fewer and fewer players chasing increased markup (fewer suppliers, somewhat steady demand) as time goes on, and less income for MindArk. MindArk was losing money year after year, and if nothing changed, then, well, nothing would change. The company would continue to lose money until they had to declare bankruptcy, or, given Swedish law, more likely had someone declare bankruptcy against them.

For the players it would somewhat resemble 1929. As people started to perceive problems, gambling would slow down. That would lower markup, and slow hunting, mining, and crafting. As activity lowered, people would try to liquefy their holdings by selling their high level items. Buyers would be few, and prices would crash. Like a bank run, more and more players would start to withdraw their money. And so on. This is the situation that MindArk needed to avoid. They could have focused everything on recruiting new players. As long as enough new depositors were coming in, the economy would not collapse. Of course, that would turn the game into the Ponzie scheme that critics have always called it. Instead, they made moves to try to reform the economy, making it less dependent on artificially high markup, and less vulnerable to a crash that could cause such a run.

An overheated economy suggests prices are sky high on everything, so when the crash comes prices dive. Yet when ever in this game has there been consistently "good" MU on regular mats? [...] Then you say MA attempted to reduce volatility in the market place. What volatility? There has simply been a downward direction of everything. No peaks no troughs, just down.

If you are going to say that markup of ores, enmats and loots over the years have been stable rather than volatile, then we simply disagree.

Two final points. One, there is nothing wrong with taking pleasure in criticizing someones thoughts. If done correctly it can provide pleasant intellectual stimulation. That is what academic discussion is, and I hoped that this post might generate such. And two, I welcome comments on all parts of my analysis, and I think you for these comments.
 
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This thread is the first time when I see you posting, but I have to say you're my new forums role-model - smart, calm, bringing good arguments, answer criticism with even more good arguments, not getting emotional. When I'll grow up I want to be just like you (well, at least in terms of how to behave myself on forums).
 
I'm sorry, I'm going to have to go against the grain with this.

Just because a post is colourfully written and sounds good, doesn't mean we automatically accept it as a quality piece.

As much as I admire the long post and time it took to write it, I find much of it somewhat meaningless.



I take no pleasure with criticising someone's work, I simply do not think it makes sense. I've decided not to comment on the rest of it.

What have I missed, or is it a language problem (miss communication?)

Rick

There was once a time when Wool, for example, would trade at 200%+. This was solely down to the fact that everyone and their dog crafted clothes (as the gambling craft) due to their relatively high tt (thus craft cost). Animal hide was 300%, molisk teeth 600%.

Historically, the gambling craft has always been on the BP which has the most cost (relative to the most freely available materials).

The key element is of course, players. The benefits to having more players is obvious in all areas of the game... Dilution of "uber" items, increased need for raw consumables, greater liquidity or flow of stackables). The current cost to play an action, lets give it 5%, could be reduced to 1% if we had 5x the players. This means your money lasts longer while MA can still turn a profit.
 
When I talk about the overheated economy in-game, I am mainly referring to the entire economy being driven by artificially high markup. When I refer to overproduction, it usually means crafting too many items, but, in context, could also mean hunting and mining HOFs that overproduce mats and crash markup. When I refer to volatility, I mean violent, unpredictable swings in markup.




I am saying that hard core gambling was the core of EU activity. Gambling drove up the price of ores, enmats, loots, components, BPs, everything. It is the reason people hunted, it is the reason people mined, it is the reason people crafted. And also--the analogy is not perfect--, unlike 1920s America, this speculation led to overproduction. This is why I tended to connect the two in my analysis. Crafters had to craft something in order to gamble, dino shoes, abrer sights, jester d-1s to skill, and other items that would either be TTed or dumped on the market. A non-gambling crafter could not compete with a crafter who was willing to sell at a loss to recoup a portion of their markup. But, unlike 1920s America, overproduction was a minor problem that merely kept crafting from ever becoming a healthy, non-gambling profession. Artificially high markup was the real issue. And there was nothing necessary wrong with this. The game is an RCE sandbox, and if that was what the players wanted to make of it, then it was fine. Except that MindArk was losing money.
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Again Good post

The thing is like you said; Gambling drove up the price of ores, enmats, loots, components, BPs, everything. It is the reason people hunted, it is the reason people mined, it is the reason people crafted.

Current state of economy is that mark ups and demand generally are dropping, therefore reducing reason to mine, hunt, craft etc (except gambler types ofc). Even trade is much lower in twin for example, as most things without that mark up are not worth trading anymore. I think we have a much higher possibility of a "run on the bank" with current situation as opposed to the mark up model, as players lose incentive to hunt/craft/mine or whatever.

We are seeing more "funds" by LA owners, bank owners etc which is basically a means to lower personal risk, while maintaining control of assets. Upgrade/buy from MA items which while great for MA (direct reduction of ingame liabilities), again reduce demand for crafted/looted items from players. We seem to be moving away from the RCE sandbox, to a more common freemium pay to win model via direct bought stuff/bound items etc.

Thought provoking stuff indeed, and again good posts; although direct comparisons between real world economics and in game i think is a bit of a stretch. Real world economics are not able to be controlled and moulded to the extend virtual ones can and have been, also in a virtual model people are not bound to it (they can stop playing/leave, take break). To me it feels there is a consumption demand problem ingame at the moment, something like the skill pills buffs would have been a great way to help solve by making them craftable (causing demand for materials for items that would just be burned up).

Anyway enough rambling from me :)
 
Again Good post

The thing is like you said; Gambling drove up the price of ores, enmats, loots, components, BPs, everything. It is the reason people hunted, it is the reason people mined, it is the reason people crafted.

Current state of economy is that mark ups and demand generally are dropping, therefore reducing reason to mine, hunt, craft etc (except gambler types ofc). Even trade is much lower in twin for example, as most things without that mark up are not worth trading anymore. I think we have a much higher possibility of a "run on the bank" with current situation as opposed to the mark up model, as players lose incentive to hunt/craft/mine or whatever.

We are seeing more "funds" by LA owners, bank owners etc which is basically a means to lower personal risk, while maintaining control of assets. Upgrade/buy from MA items which while great for MA (direct reduction of ingame liabilities), again reduce demand for crafted/looted items from players. We seem to be moving away from the RCE sandbox, to a more common freemium pay to win model via direct bought stuff/bound items etc.

Thought provoking stuff indeed, and again good posts; although direct comparisons between real world economics and in game i think is a bit of a stretch. Real world economics are not able to be controlled and moulded to the extend virtual ones can and have been, also in a virtual model people are not bound to it (they can stop playing/leave, take break). To me it feels there is a consumption demand problem ingame at the moment, something like the skill pills buffs would have been a great way to help solve by making them craftable (causing demand for materials for items that would just be burned up).

Anyway enough rambling from me :)


Markups are declining, as you point out, but it is a fall, rather than a crash, which is where I think the game was heading, next year, the year after...eventually. This gives time to build up the new-player base, time for current players to adjust to the new conditions, and time for investor confidence to stabilize, albeit at a lower level, and avoid a panic. (Like the New Deal, although you are right of course that direct comparison is a stretch, but the use of analogies isn't, and hopefully without the drastic adjustments of the Second New Deal.)

The move toward a more "freemium" model used by other games is probably needed to draw new players, and, to be fair, the other games started it. Most large, western, MMOs were subscription based in 2009 when Turbine switched DDO to free to play with great success, making most of their money from webshop purchases, then followed with LOTRO a year later. Following their example, the industry as a whole shifted (loosely) towards the EU model.

Last note, on pill-crafting...I have a nanobot BP I could toss on auction.

Thanks for the comment.
 
MA should be very careful with freemium/webshop/pay2win systems... We all know as a game/entertainment product, it is poorer in content, visuals, concept, playability than the vast majority of its competitors.

If MA move to the same payment model as others (effectively abandoning the RCE aspect and making it a skill based slot machine) then the incentive to play will evaporate for all but the die-hard.

If MU (including high-end, desirable items) is reduced to nothing as everyone has the same webshop bought weapon, armour, fap and buffset then people will switch off very rapidly.
 
Driving up the prices of ESIs and selling skill pills on the web shop at 4 PED a pop has got me really worried. When you put that next to the new resto chips, constant upgrade missions for weapons/armors/faps... the trend is terrifying.

I thought the whole freemium/pay2win thing was just people being paranoid, but they seem intent on killing the economy and forcing us to buy everything directly from them. And they seem perfectly content to leave crafting a dead system where the only things crafted are amps and EP IV...

All amidst a record breaking content drought while they supposedly focus 99% of their efforts on ComPets...
 
Seems one very interesting thread after long time. Need alot of reading both OP and some comments, because it's very late and I have no time right now, I subscribed.
 
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