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Loot-Theory Debunk Thread

Aio

Aio

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Aio Dakina
Hey all,

Getting a bit bored with the "eco doesn't matter" opinion, so I thought while I'm injured this weekend (knee, football, fucks sake) I'd have some fun(?) using my imp7 knife and lose a shit load of PEDs.

Weapon setup is:

Castorian Survival Enblade 7 Improved t4.8 + Melee Trauma Amp IV + 1,2,3,4 dmg enh
Boar unL T2+
Some shit (L) fap

Skills (start):

Knife (Hit): 32.9
Knife (Dmg): 35.3

Weapon Stats (with skills):

imp7t4m4.jpg


Mobs:

Feffox to start with, they're fat with HP and not too aggro to get swarmed with my low range.


Let's lose some fuckin' PEDs!
 
Run 1

Cost:

Knife+Amp: 485.10 + 122.23
Armour: 25.08

Total: 632.41

Returns:

Ammo+Shrapnel: 325.85
Oils: 138
Hides/extractors/components/skins: 18.57
Other: polaris feet L : 54.31

Total: 536.74

% Return: 84.87
% Return w/out Armour: 88.37

Notable Loots: 196 Feffox Old

In other news... t4.9! So tiering this baby up :laugh:
 
4% armor cost and I'm not seeing any fap cost. Standing regenerating in between mobs?
 
For grinders eco matters. For People that know how loot works eco does not matter. They simply hunt only those mobs that have the loot.
 
Run 2

Cost:

Knife+Amp: 599.19
Armour: 24.65

Total: 632.84

Returns:

Ammo+Shrapnel: 163.01
Oils: 92
Hides/extractors/components/skins: 15.52


Total: 270.53

% Return: 42.75
% Return w/out Armour: 45.15

(Cost on knife is different due to t5 = 5 dmg enh)

__

But, guys, cost is returned in loot, right? :laugh: :laugh:
 
JohnCapital said:
4% armor cost and I'm not seeing any fap cost. Standing regenerating in between mobs?
Click to expand...

I barely fap on young-old, maybe throw in a ped or 2 if you want to add them but it's irrelevant - fapping cannot possbily contribute to costs, it's an external factor. This isn't an "eco hunt log" - it's to disprove people saying weapon eco doesn't matter.

Spawn said:
For grinders eco matters. For People that know how loot works eco does not matter. They simply hunt only those mobs that have the loot.
Click to expand...

So someone who hunts the right mob with eco will win more. Use your fucking brain.
 
Spawn said:
For grinders eco matters. For People that know how loot works eco does not matter. They simply hunt only those mobs that have the loot.
Click to expand...

There are no crystal balls or guarantees or those ubers wouldn't bitch so much.

My log pretty much shows eco matters for sure.. at least as far as the tt side of the equation is considered.
 
Last edited:
Great initiative, +rep

Don't do sports, it's bad for your health.
Get well soon!
 
Aio said:
I barely fap on young-old, maybe throw in a ped or 2 if you want to add them but it's irrelevant - fapping cannot possbily contribute to costs, it's an external factor. This isn't an "eco hunt log" - it's to disprove people saying weapon eco doesn't matter.



So someone who hunts the right mob with eco will win more. Use your fucking brain.
Click to expand...

Check out this thread, we had a short discussion about these so called "external factors".

It seems that there is a good chance that defensive cost is at least partially returned in loot according to some people :scratch2:

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?284210-Me-stoopid-noob%AE-need-advice/page2&p=3477412#post3477412

As for your log, I don't think we can really rely on anything less than ~5k mobs killed. We need to see whether or not you're getting insane multipliers instead or the so called "eco multipliers" on some of your bigger loots.

Either way, thanks for the effort!
 
Last edited:
Run 3

Cost:

Knife+Amp: 599.19
Armour: 24.23

Total: 632.43

Returns:

Ammo+Shrapnel: 466.72
Oils: 172.5
Hides/extractors/components/skins: 10.90


Total: 650.12

% Return: 102.80
% Return w/out Armour: 108.50

Notable loots:

Feffox Mature 78 PED
Feffox Young 58 PED
Feffox Mature 80 PED
Feffox Young 51 PED

__

Profit! When 44.5% of your loot is globs ;)
 
ZPF said:
Check out this thread, we had a short discussion about these so called "external factors".

It seems that there is a good chance that defensive cost is at least partially returned in loot according to some people :scratch2:

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?284210-Me-stoopid-noob%AE-need-advice/page2&p=3477412#post3477412

As for your log, I don't think we can really rely on anything less than ~5k mobs killed. We need to see whether or not you're getting insane multipliers instead or the so called "eco multipliers" on some of your bigger loots.

Either way, thanks for the effort!
Click to expand...

I did separate person tests on argonaut youngs, wearing full vain, using the tt pistol (unamped). Idea was, generate mental defensive costs to "force" a higher average loot.

End result? I decayed 118ped of vain and got zero noticeable difference.

As for 5k mobs... well, I can afford it if eco doesn't matter, if it does, I'll be off to the bank :laugh:
 
  • Like
Reactions: ZPF
buckaroobanzai said:
Hi Aio,
please have a look at this (pretty old) thread. What would you get by looking at results in the same way as I did at the time?

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?121533-Hunting-statistics-again&highlight=

Take care,
BBB
Click to expand...

Incredibly interesting.

I know for a fact that items have their own logic; MA showed that in the past if you remember the "low TT item" fuck-up - when people were looting i2870's and ML35's with TT's sub 10 ped. It's still obvious today with mushrooms, aurli bones, robot special parts, nano adjusters etc (all those special items).

Your graph almost proves that (in 2008) globals also have their own logic.

I would never like to say that the game is as simple as a fruit machine; it's not. It's just much more likely to act like a fruit machine than a super-computer powered algorithm which includes location, avatar spend, history of the mob etc etc.

I think, personally, HP of a mob (factored to regen) is re-payed at a certain rate. I think globals are paid at a "competition rate", i.e. you are competing against other players for them, and I think items share the same logic as globals but with a separate, independent logic (not to say, you can't have a global with an item, the two can be convergent).
 
Slithered proved that different weapons have different avg loots on the same mob. The more eco you are, the lower the avg loot which is closer to the cost to kill of the mob and thus a more compact sine wave. I definitely believe that, through my own log, that it is why using a super eco weapon but not maxed is a bad idea.. because the avg loot doesn't get bigger to compensate for the misses.

I don't believe that defensive costs get paid back unless by chance the defensive decay spills over into loot and somehow you pick it up from the pool in a global or hof.. but another hunter could as well and thus it is not a good idea to overprotect to maybe win an event.
 
Run 4

Cost:

Knife+Amp: 599.19
Armour: 26.80

Total: 625.99

Returns:

Ammo+Shrapnel: 326.43
Oils: 80.5
Hides/extractors/components/skins: 6.8


Total: 413.73

% Return: 66.09
% Return w/out Armour: 69.05

Notable Loots:

Feffox Young 95 PED

___

Anyone got spare PEDs? :laugh:
 
atomicstorm said:
There are no crystal balls or guarantees or those ubers wouldn't bitch so much.

My log pretty much shows eco matters for sure.. at least as far as the tt side of the equation is considered.
Click to expand...

now if you only knew which mobs were multipliers, and switch to a non-eco setup for those you´d be in for a massive profit :D

as far as on topic goes. I would love to see more data on this, but i´m sure you´re gonna lose a shitton unless you hit a big multiplier. No matter how this goes there are gonna be people that wants more datapoints, more numbers overall, a more elaborate report. This is how it always goes with these kinds of things. It´s great to see someone put their minds (and money) to it, for the greater good (or bad for those who already know). +rep

atomicstorm said:
I don't believe that defensive costs get paid back unless by chance the defensive decay spills over into loot and somehow you pick it up from the pool in a global or hof.. but another hunter could as well and thus it is not a good idea to overprotect to maybe win an event.
Click to expand...

I´m all for this theory (my data suggests the same, thus I am hunting naked most of the time. )
My theory, MA takes a % of all decay (somewhat stated in dev notes) and the rest of it is added to pool. You get loot based on your killcost (multipliers) and higher eco (edited from lower, sorry was kind of in a hurry when typing) means lower avg loot. I also am a firm believer that eco doesn´t matter, in a singular perspective. But rather that your eco compared to the avg eco does. Too much said already :)
 
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Ferial said:
I also am a firm believer that eco doesn´t matter, in a singular perspective. But rather that your eco compared to the avg eco does. Too much said already :)
Click to expand...

this++

or, to put it in different words, eco doesn't matter when you're alone on NI. Everywhere else, it does. :)
 
Ferial said:
now if you only knew which mobs were multipliers, and switch to a non-eco setup for those you´d be in for a massive profit :D

as far as on topic goes. I would love to see more data on this, but i´m sure you´re gonna lose a shitton unless you hit a big multiplier. No matter how this goes there are gonna be people that wants more datapoints, more numbers overall, a more elaborate report. This is how it always goes with these kinds of things. It´s great to see someone put their minds (and money) to it, for the greater good (or bad for those who already know). +rep



I´m all for this theory (my data suggests the same, thus I am hunting naked most of the time. )
My theory, MA takes a % of all decay (somewhat stated in dev notes) and the rest of it is added to pool. You get loot based on your killcost (multipliers) and lower eco means lower avg loot. I also am a firm believer that eco doesn´t matter, in a singular perspective. But rather that your eco compared to the avg eco does. Too much said already :)
Click to expand...

Higher eco means lower avg loot per kill, better returns. Lower eco means higher avg loot per kill, worse returns. Slither proved the avg loot per kill in an experiment.
 
And we're back to thinking that MindArk are some math geniuses with 50 loot algorithm programmers.

You have to ask yourselves, why. Why did so many people make more money with imk2 when the general people lost.

MA first attempted to "reduce" eco by introducing regen. Then higher HP and higher DMG, which made dps king. Then they increased the eco of all new weapons.

Now you can have a fucking L1100E (L) which has 2.95 dpp with a106.

I despair, I really do. I guess you're all the same type of people who look at lines in the sky and think the government are spraying us with "chems" :laugh:
 
atomicstorm said:
Slither proved the avg loot per kill in an experiment.
Click to expand...

The only thing the experiment lacks is long term averages taking into account massive "non-eco" multipliers.
 
Aio said:
So someone who hunts the right mob with eco will win more. Use your fucking brain.
Click to expand...


God Bless You!
Couldnt have said it any better.

Good Luck with your little project. You already know the outcome.

Cheers
Soko

p.s.
I wont even complain about the coffee I spit all over myself when reading this
 
Aio said:
And we're back to thinking that MindArk are some math geniuses with 50 loot algorithm programmers.

You have to ask yourselves, why. Why did so many people make more money with imk2 when the general people lost.

MA first attempted to "reduce" eco by introducing regen. Then higher HP and higher DMG, which made dps king. Then they increased the eco of all new weapons.

Now you can have a fucking L1100E (L) which has 2.95 dpp with a106.

I despair, I really do. I guess you're all the same type of people who look at lines in the sky and think the government are spraying us with "chems" :laugh:
Click to expand...

I think hunting eco is the common sense approach and it's how I play.
 
Last edited:
sachi.mk2 said:
Personally I think hunting eco is the common sense approach and it's how I play. But, Girts is the only player to produce a longterm hunting log with an imk2, and he only got 90% TT return with it. The same return rate he got with a Foeripper when he switched; similar skills with both. This was before MA improved average returns, and big hofs were commonplace. While I tentatively agree with you, it's weird Girts did so badly with an imk2.

ps. I did own an imk2 and cycled over a million ped with it: I got the same return rate with a ml35me+evil at 2.450 eco. Far from max on both setups, but it's odd the massively higher DPP on the imk2 didn't produce slightly better TT return. The results were produced in the old days of higher hofs and lower avg returns.
Click to expand...

This. I don't think eco really matters as much as we think. On the main login screen when you launch EU, it shows the statistics of the Adjusted Maddox...do you think they would really brag about the dmg/pec if it meant you profited more?

They will get their profit from everyone, period, or else they would go out of business.

As a depositor I do hope that depositors get better loot than non-depo, no offense meant to non-depo, you have my respect.
 
In terms of regen being compensated, that I agree with completely.
 
Last edited:
You're all still not understanding the basic concept.

Do you understand how difficult it would be to track what you think they're tracking?

How about a mob, where you use two weapons to shoot it? One with 2.95 dpp and one with 2.35. And you do 50/50 damage? How about 85/15 damage?

How about 2 separate avatars who do the above?

How about 3 avatars?

How about a shared mob?

Now multiply this by the amount of looting actions happening every second; minute; hour. You think a server purchased by a low-end game developer could handle those actions?

Now roll back 18 years to when the first concept of EU was happening. What they developed is a very simple logic which over time, means the house wins.

Since then, MA have improved, tweaked, modified this logic but it still stands. It's nowhere near as complex as you think. There's still people who think depositing gives benefits. There's still people who think MA can modify the loot of an avatar?! Madness.

The reason MA want to improve avatars' DPP (or push people to normalize it) is it removes the massive negative-marketing of people pulling 30, 40, 50% returns. If everyone made a happy 95 then there would be far fewer complaints.
 
sachi.mk2 said:
In terms of regen being compensated, that I agree with completely. I've hunted caperon for nearly a year, and without a multiplier, they will produce loot varying between 0.73-5.01 ped. With a multiplier, it will always be over 10ped. I've recorded loot from individual caperon young loots, so I know this for a fact, based on thousands killed. One time, a guy turned up on caperon, attempted to kill a young twice, nearly managed, but died both times. Obviously wasted plenty of ped on it, and never returned for a third time. Thirty minutes later or so, the mob agro on me, I killed it, and it gave 7.40 ped loot. In all my results, numbering over 2000 caperon young, recording loot on every cap, i never got a loot between 5.01-10.00ped; I killed all those normally without them regen.
Click to expand...

Regen is compensated. Because loot is based on HP; it's the only logical way. Before regen (This is one of the modifications to the loot logic I'm talking about) the formula was simply damage (HP) per pec spent.

With regen, I believe they added a (capped) line of code which compensated for lower DPS (again to remove the worry about people losing too much with regen).

Regarding your ML/Imk2 experience, unfortunately there are two other logics in place (globals, items). It's really hard to tease the data out from these. It's why such bizarre theories exist - even a linear data line would make people suspect alternatives but when you add sinusoidal loot waves and multiple return factors it goes to madness even when it's a relatively simple mathematical equation.

Essentially it is this - the more damage you cause per pec spent, with all other things being equal, the more return % you will get.
 
Run 5

Cost:

Knife+Amp: 599.19
Armour: 24.26

Total: 623.45
Returns:

Ammo+Shrapnel: 226.77
Oils: 79/5
Hides/extractors/components/skins: 10.67
Other: Caly Spirit mk3 L 52.63
Cryo Nano 7 L 59.00

Total: 428.58

% Return: 68.74
% Return w/out Armour: 71.59

Notable Loots: 157 Feffox Young
 
max doa foe return for me was 91,90978128% , asking Avery he was at 94-95% with mm

i2870 i was like 96,68 tt return (i guess just because of some big loots)

well a lot changed in last years , gl with the log
 
Run 6

Cost:

Knife+Amp: 599.19
Armour: 27.48

Total: 626.58

Returns:

Ammo+Shrapnel: 310.77
Oils: 119
Hides/extractors/components/skins: 8.6
Other: Caly Spirit mk3 L 135

Total: 573.37

% Return: 91.51
% Return w/out Armour: 95.69

Notable Loots: 294 Feffox Guardian

___

More than 50% loot from a single glob and still sub 100% :laugh:
 
Alina said:
max doa foe return for me was 91,90978128% , asking Avery he was at 94-95% with mm

i2870 i was like 96,68 tt return (i guess just because of some big loots)

well a lot changed in last years , gl with the log
Click to expand...

Thanks :)

Was Avery pre- or post- Aurli ATH? I know he was grinding them with merc for ages to pop that. Plus, he pulled enough in mining MU to deserve some losses somewhere :yup:
 
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