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Risk of Ruin - Bankroll Management

Svarog said:
You nailed it, but the thing is, you can be that guy who jumps from mob to mob, instead of mindlessly grinding the same one for hours, waiting for the return to "even out" :)
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I could, but I'm a slave to my missions and progress bars, damn this ocd! :laugh:
 
That's quite an unusual way to calculate risk of ruin in the first post .
If we have probability of success p and probability of failure q such as p+q=1, value of bet is fixed and our bankroll is N times higher than value of each of our bets then RoR is calculated as (q/p)^N
 
Aio said:
Nah, the way it specifically works is this:

Per "zone" (don't want to explain too heavily here mob/server etc) a value is "set". The input peds then build to this value (with output peds continually for "standard" and "multi" loots - these are your classic slot machine style mechanics). When the value is hit, the system pays out a proportion of this (say 90%) and retains the remainder for MA.

The value is set to different parameters, could be high, could be low.

This is why in pockets (1 mob on 1 server during a short amount of time) the general concept of a "loot pool" works.

In the overall system, MA can say that there is no pool, for sure :)
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Thankyou .... Where can I find the supporting evidence for this ?

I do believe I did have a similar idea. Split an area into a set of cells with the centre cell being 0 and spiral out from that point

6 7 8
5 0 1
4 3 2

Generate the value that each point will accept before bursting

2 3 4
1 0 1
2 3 2

The above values are based on the mining sizes from class 0 to 15. Each one of these cells is +- (x)m, which brings the size of the grid to .... There is where it gets tricky, it can be any size. The system MA is employing is dynamic as it's player activity that drives it. The beauty of the "grid" is that it can be any size or shape polygon that repeats itself, a square being the perfect example. It may even be fractal in nature, whereby the more accurate you are within the smallest possible area, will yield max amount of loot.

Sorry but my head is going wild with this data !!!!
 
R4tt3xx said:
Thankyou .... Where can I find the supporting evidence for this ?

I do believe I did have a similar idea. Split an area into a set of cells with the centre cell being 0 and spiral out from that point

6 7 8
5 0 1
4 3 2

Generate the value that each point will accept before bursting

2 3 4
1 0 1
2 3 2

The above values are based on the mining sizes from class 0 to 15. Each one of these cells is +- (x)m, which brings the size of the grid to .... There is where it gets tricky, it can be any size. The system MA is employing is dynamic as it's player activity that drives it. The beauty of the "grid" is that it can be any size or shape polygon that repeats itself, a square being the perfect example. It may even be fractal in nature, whereby the more accurate you are within the smallest possible area, will yield max amount of loot.

Sorry but my head is going wild with this data !!!!
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There is so much system noise in hunting its near impossible to collect accurate data. The only times when it might be are

a) single spawn, single server, low hunted mob (i.e. Phasm)
b) the same, but with a high hunted mob

I haven't collected any data from these, but for example on the feffoid event a few months back, I found it possible to predict HoFs while hunting (for the area, not myself) down to within 5 minute windows.

The trigger can be that if you see a global of say, 200ped, and immediately after a global of 180ped - the "pool" hasn't reached capacity yet as there wouldn't be enough time to rebuild that second global from input peds. If you see a string of globals and then a HOF, with no globals afterwards for a short while, you can identify that as a "payout" loot from the pool PED max.

Issues with this is you dont know the pool value (so even if you see a 200x multi... maybe the pool max is 250x?) so you cant effectively know when to stop shooting. Additionally, even if you can predict exactly when a hof will drop, its likely you won't be the only player there (so have a chance of losing it) and if you are the only player, its likely all the HOF input peds are your losses in shooting that mob.
 
shoti said:
I am here in EU 12 years already
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First sorry if it sounded like a personal attack, wasn't my intention. Then, probably I should spell more clearly the object of dispute (in my view): I do not believe that loot multipliers are tied to the mob. Or better said, I do not believe that, in a very simplistic statement, the mob gives out multipliers are players are sitting in a queue and who has the highest dps jumps the line.

I am not particularly interested in talking openly about this, but I have a problem with the behavior this originates. Of course kill stealing or hoarding mobs might rather have to do with a lack of manners, but I think this common "truth" is also part of the problem.

Now, since I am not into bringing out anything constructively, I will stop polluting 5$'s thread :laugh:
 
First i´d like to say, i find the OP qualifies to become a sticky thread! It´s definately one of the best threads in years!



shoti said:
Thats one of worse advice you could give to hunters ( unless u have hidden purpose ;). Using TT fap increase time between kils during competitive with other participants hunting run on area and, therefore reducing their chances to get good loot.

DPS shall be as high as possible ( up to avoid unreasonable overkill ) and time between loot actions ( a.k.a kiling another mob ) shall be as small as possible in order to get as many kill in said period of time as possible. Preferably to reach higher kill count than other hunters.

Good loot ( equalizer, higher than average multiplier resulting in global or HoF ) is not only function of your personal probablity of getting it, but also it dynamicaly depend on similar activity in vicinity of you. MA said clearly there is no loot pool. Faster performing of loot action makes your "probing" for good multiplier and area/mob multiplier more often. Such "outDPSing" and faster " probing" for mob/area multiplier leaves you competition beaten in those fields.
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I second that, but killspeed is just one side of the medal, the other one is a defence strategy against the killspeed of other players that hunt bigger and better than you do. Here is where min/max strategies come into play. First days of MM showed what happens to your loot if players like grave, hulk, vodka, stryker and star hunt all at the same time. They probably didn´t recognize it, but loot was bad for noncompetitives throughout the universe. (All but Akbar and Stone and goldboys like osga pff) (i can speak for Caly, RT and ARK) If you cant keep up with those ubahs hunting you gonna loose your a$$ while playing with returns of 50-70% on average. No bad feelings about that, i have seen both sides.

As i see it, EU is currently not in an era of highest dps kind of gameplay, but its going towards a new zenith of eco-gameplay. What we face next year are hunters that gonna be 30% more eco than hunters with Imp 2870 or even Mod Merc on average. They gonna become filthy rich or MA gonna screw them this way or another... and along with them, all other players, who play less eco. You better get sporty soon! I guess, after that we will see a new era of dps-rampage on that new level of eco. 3-4.5dpp gonna get the average sooner or later with plenty of L and unL gun drops, plenty of new weapon bps. And oh wonder, oh wonder, the drastic treatment on mining lately (Explosives kill MUs of ressources not the crafters), that kinda killed all miners will suddenly result in a steady rise of MU of mined ressources, because they are running low. New mob with around 30% more hp on average. I am just waking up out of my daydream about the future of EU, but about this is what i expect to happen.

Yeah so i think min/max strategies are the big thing now. Especially for those 99% of us who cant keep up with the topnotch in dps and eco in events. But keep in mind if ubahs are not hunting, midlevels are in private. But if ubah play, you better start to hunt reeeeeaaaalllllyyy slow and eco, you gotta chat a lot if you want to stay online, go get infos on PCF!... unless you can keep up, then you should try to hunt faster than they do. Thx L it can be done, ive pissed of MM-users with X1-Dante tier 6 dmg-enhanced still surprisingly eco and hofing like mad!

But to stay on topic, these times might be entirely gone soon. I find its very important to understand the dpp thingy and i am curious what role does it play in the calculations of the OP? Where does dpp/dps fit into the grand formular? I mean if a topnotch player gets one of those new topnotch eco guns and he cycles 20k ped a day in ammo and repairs. He gonna do ballpark 2 million damage more than the "average ModMerc user with his A204." That are 307 level 21 Pesky Rocktropia Crabs, 6.5k hp each for free, every day.

sledge-:hammer:

If that is the new deal, you can bet, your old 3dpp gun gets a showpiece in the museum. Or you have to use it to get an L version of one of the new guns 4dpp+, to hunt profitable for 2 hours to return back to your bad eco of 3dpp.

:ahh: you know i am not one of those x-ray kind of guys when it comes to mathematics, so if i am right with what ive stated above, what would the new numbers be?


fluske said:
hmm..in poker we had this saying "please dont educate the fish ";)
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bait it!
 
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Does this still hold true for loot 2.0, $5?
 
Sub-Zero said:
Does this still hold true for loot 2.0, $5?
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this goes in any gambling environment where the house (MA) has a rake or an advantage. it's meant to tackle variance.... since there is more variance in loot 2.0... you probably need even more bankroll now.
 
Sub-Zero said:
Does this still hold true for loot 2.0, $5?
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Judging on my 15k 10hp punies kill after loot 2.0 I can say that 5000 mob pedcard feels too fat considering I had only around 15 ped swings at any point. Judging by that 15 ped swings anything lower than 600 mobs will almost surely be a disaster.
I think in 2.0 now the right question is "how many mobs should I kill to get a clue on its loot quality for my current setup" and that number would be high enough to survive downswings in the process.
I personally believe the number now is around 2000-2500
 
Sub-Zero said:
Does this still hold true for loot 2.0, $5?
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The information in this thread applies to any probability system.

In the OP and accompanied sheet, the risk of ruin is based on TT+MU. This is still true with 2.0. It could be, until markup situation improves, that it is better not to play, find events that will help you cross over 100%, or find markup that will improve your profit potential.

The one thing that may need to change is your Lower Bound from 80% to 70%.
 
agreed this shit should be stickied.
 
I totally agree. The eu lesson I value the most on this forum. Watch your PED card. Think about what it is your doing..
 
Good post.

Has this been stickied yet?
 
A Truly Epic Thread and Very Usefull :yay::beerchug:
 
Great job on this post. Really well made and expressed. I like how it really gets the idea out the public of what they should be doing and expands upon the expansiveness of what defines loot theories on a RNG :p Something like that.
Thanks for including it in here :D
 
Having a starting balance or deposit of 45000 ped and it lasts say a year, is exactly the same as another player depositing 3750 ped a month x 12 = 45k ped. The only real benefit of a bigger ped card is to able to bank looted resources, so manage mark-up sales with more ease, (it adds flexibility to ped management). Saying look; I only deposited ‘once’ this year, I’m doing far better than a regular depositor bears no relevance to actual incurred losses.

I would suggest that a incremental depositor carries less risk because the game needs to justify value to the player to convince the player to deposit again (if you remove the addict variable). For example I’ve fully completed Xmas MM a few times on £100 about 1200 – 1400 ped, that’s about 3 weeks of play, and no-where near the 800 ped lower bound ‘daily’ loss mentioned.

If the game was that brutal and took £100 in two days, I simply would refuse to play for few months. Who’s winning then?...smiles.

The suggestion is that a very large ped card will carry you through any pain, until a recovery hof materialises (ok that’s pretty obvious to most, it doesn’t need much science). Is the original post possibly suggesting that 45K ped can be maintained long term, but for what period of time? Forever? Nahhh I can’t see the game letting you get away with ‘forever’. The game has this nasty habit of adding limiters to your personal loot when it thinks you’re hooked, and testing your ability to accept losses.

I agree wholeheartedly that you need to be able to turn a weapon a certain amount of times as a reasonable bank-roll. Or time based; have enough ped for your weapon of choice to run continuously for a good 2 hours. At a minimum, a ‘one’ hour run with smaller budget.

It’s a different game in 2019, everyone pays. Only the efficiency of your weapon will enable you to play more for less cost, (assuming the game plays fair, under the hood).

Depends if you want to play hardcore for 6 hours a day I guess. I prefer to come in these days, blast it up for few hours then balance that with some real life experiences.

The only rule I would live by these days, is never run your card to zero. Because when you come back in the worst case is a top up deposit.

It’s all gravy

Rick

ps: good post though by atomic, we've all got our methods to best manage our play style.
 
RickEngland said:
The game has this nasty habit of adding limiters to your personal loot when it thinks you’re hooked, and testing your ability to accept losses.
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Please stop spreading incorrect information!
 
SuperKanjo said:
Please stop spreading incorrect information!
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Well we need to be honest and assess the whole picture.

Lets remember Atomic was running an Imp MAKO FAL with 3.195 pec per use, back in 2015 and previous to that an IMK2. Both of those weapons were top of the game for their time (pre loot 2.0), and both needed level 100 to maximise potential.

The average Joe wouldn't have access to such weapons unless they were prepared to invest heavily to obtain something that good. We're now in the realms of new SIB weapons with equal or better stats such as FEN or token event won weapons. I expect the goal posts to have moved to accomodate that, but that's another argument.

So the weapon had more importance than the big ped card. That is without a doubt true.

Now I recently came back to the game (after a few month break) and was running Adj Det sword for a week or so, as my FEN mace was on free loan to a friend. I didn't want to go heavily so just ran an hour or two max and logged.

When I got my Mace back I ran a few hours everyday and all went quite well. It was only when I extended my time for more online play, did the globals gradually reduce over time. There's two things going on there, either the game is on a personal build until it decides to pop. Or the game is testing my resolve to accept losses for extended play.

It's quite interesting, as I was playing for once without any emotional attachment, and simply watching game dynamics to see how it would behave. I'm convinced there's a 'online' time based element to looting.

However even so, I was pretty impressed with the performance of the FEN Mace (whatever bugs were there when they first dropped had now been fixed). I could get a ton more kills completed for the same cost of using a less efficient weapon.

The point is the weapon is king rather than the bank roll. I think 2-3K peds would be pretty adequte to run an equlivlent of FEN LR40 or FEN Mace both with 79.8 efficency (excluding attachments).

We simply share experiences, no one has the correct imformation.

It's just a game, all is cool. Keep smiling enjoy your day :)

Rick
 
RickEngland said:
It was only when I extended my time for more online play, did the globals gradually reduce over time. There's two things going on there, either the game is on a personal build until it decides to pop. Or the game is testing my resolve to accept losses for extended play.
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Or you are in a downswing, which has been extensively logged and discussed ad nauseum here. We don't need another "I haD 20 bAd huNTs in a ROw thE gaME is RigGed" thread. The downswings in this game can be long and brutal. There's no conspiracy. MA doesn't have some ML algorithm in place that adjusts your personal returns based on your play style. (Unless the new conspiracy is they only pretend to be mediocre developers in order to pull the wool over our eyes :confused:)


RickEngland said:
It's quite interesting, as I was playing for once without any emotional attachment
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I doubt it.


RickEngland said:
I'm convinced there's a 'online' time based element to looting.
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Yes of course there is, it's called RNG you roaster. *smiles*
 
RickEngland said:
Well we need to be honest and assess the whole picture.

Lets remember Atomic was running an Imp MAKO FAL with 3.195 pec per use, back in 2015 and previous to that an IMK2. Both of those weapons were top of the game for their time (pre loot 2.0), and both needed level 100 to maximise potential.

The average Joe wouldn't have access to such weapons unless they were prepared to invest heavily to obtain something that good. We're now in the realms of new SIB weapons with equal or better stats such as FEN or token event won weapons. I expect the goal posts to have moved to accomodate that, but that's another argument.

So the weapon had more importance than the big ped card. That is without a doubt true.

Now I recently came back to the game (after a few month break) and was running Adj Det sword for a week or so, as my FEN mace was on free loan to a friend. I didn't want to go heavily so just ran an hour or two max and logged.

When I got my Mace back I ran a few hours everyday and all went quite well. It was only when I extended my time for more online play, did the globals gradually reduce over time. There's two things going on there, either the game is on a personal build until it decides to pop. Or the game is testing my resolve to accept losses for extended play.

It's quite interesting, as I was playing for once without any emotional attachment, and simply watching game dynamics to see how it would behave. I'm convinced there's a 'online' time based element to looting.

However even so, I was pretty impressed with the performance of the FEN Mace (whatever bugs were there when they first dropped had now been fixed). I could get a ton more kills completed for the same cost of using a less efficient weapon.

The point is the weapon is king rather than the bank roll. I think 2-3K peds would be pretty adequte to run an equlivlent of FEN LR40 or FEN Mace both with 79.8 efficency (excluding attachments).

We simply share experiences, no one has the correct imformation.

It's just a game, all is cool. Keep smiling enjoy your day :)

Rick
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You forgot to take off your tin foil hat again
 
RickEngland said:
The point is the weapon is king rather than the bank roll. I think 2-3K peds would be pretty adequte to run an equlivlent of FEN LR40 or FEN Mace both with 79.8 efficency (excluding attachments).
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didn't you ragequit after finding out that was absolutely untrue?
 
F***ing hell what's this... hate on Rick day? Just saying you don't need 45K bank roll to play the game.

I didn't rage quit, I took a three months off to pay down my EU purchases. Good financial management I say.

I do have 387K skills, I have right to an opinion.

Whatever though, life is too short. :)

Rick
 
Slyk said:
didn't you ragequit after finding out that was absolutely untrue?
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ok I'll give you reply, since I've just finished my washing up chores.

I was really p*ssed with the game that I done my part and paid MA a lot of cash and they decided to play the brutal card. So I thought fine....I'll take some time off and pay down the costs instead. Then before I know it 3+ months went by. It was a well needed break, I've come back with a different mindset. Besides I side stepped all the implementation of the new system.

I did about 8 - 10 hours non-stop hunting on CP today, firstly to help the first CP payout to be as epic as possible, and also test if hard long term hunt would crack a balancing hof...It didn't. But hey-ho I got some skilling done. Was it worth the loss? who knows I'll find out on the next hunt if it bounces back.

Ironically the returns in actual CP domes was better than in the caves. Cracks me up how this game rolls.

I've learnt not to trust the game, or lose sleep over it. I'll play it until it takes the piss, then I wont play it. Simply really. I've done a lot of years in the place and a lot of hunting, I'm way past caring if some special super item loot will come, because it won't. So it's simply not worth worrying about.

The reality is I really wanted to sell up the game with a FEN hunting thread back in January, but that moment has passed and I no longer care.

I'm out of here. Good luck out there, stay happy its just entertainment.

Rick
 
Theres a difference between sharing an opinion and just giving bad advice.
On your previous thread titled Rick's 2019 FEN hunting, you state:

RickEngland said:
Sadly all that means is whatever weapon we're using, we're going to need huge bankroll. ok then message understood. Now I can make choices. I don't like it, but I got the facts now apparently.
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Now you are saying:

RickEngland said:
Just saying you don't need 45K bank roll to play the game.
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So which is it? Do you need a huge bankroll or not?

Also, if you think a huge bankroll is required to play the game, then you have not read this thread correctly.
AtomicStorm was basing it on a 4K PED daily cycle and based on the level he was playing at.
If you are not playing at his level, your bankroll can be much smaller. However the whole point was to allow people to understand that you need to miminise your losses so that you can continue to play on your budget for an extended time. If you can do this, then you have a good chance of recovering when selling things for MU.
If you hunt over your level where you do not have the funds to continue a loss, then there is no chance you will be able to recover.
 
Darth Revan said:
.
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Seriously; you're going to spend your personal time, to trawl through loads of posts I made, to find a comment that you can twist into the narrative that makes you all warm inside and gives you a sense of personal value.

The way the game was behaving back in January after MM, you'd need millions of ped just to survive. Which was the point I was referring too. Does it matter now? not really it's in the past.

You're behaving like one of the SJW twitter twats, that trawl through millions of twitter posts to distroy people's careers. There really is more to life than that, go and get laid or something...it's much more enjoyable.

I'll post less or maybe not at all, there's no value in it.

Svarog said:
You don't need it to play the game, you need it to stop paying for it.
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That is very true, it's always been choice. Actually I didn't have a problem depositing a decent bank roll recently. I'm testing a few scenarios, seeing how the game behaves in certain situations.

I'm cool. happy hunting.

Rick
 
RickEngland said:
I'll post less or maybe not at all, there's no value in it.
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There isn't any value for us either, maybe just some case studies for younger generations since you are a lost cause. Even if you had ALL the peds in the game to test, you'd still not understand THE BASICS of this game. You never had, you never will. You will always look for weird patterns and what's under the hood instead of reading and understanding even the most simple things in this game.
Please stop trashing good threads.
Your skill count is just like your age, something to be ashamed of because you've come this far without understanding anything you've seen.
Please get back to walking the pets, taking the meds, the usual.
 
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