Risk of Ruin - Bankroll Management

As I intend to share some aspects of my data collection in my Improved Mako FAL journey, I wanted to spin up a conversation that it seems that most people cannot comphrend on PCF.. and that is bankroll management.
... omissis...

Same variables but we will add average markup:

Current Bankroll - 45,000 PED
Daily Cycle - 4,000 PED
Lower Bound Risk - 80%
Lower Bound Result: -800 PED
Average Markup - 0.025 (102.5%)
Markup Per Day - 100 PED
Lower Bound Result with Markup: -700 PED
Risk of Ruin with Markup - 1.56% (-0.22% difference)

.....

i dont understand why u calculate the RoR only on one "bet" (4.000ped) and not on all bets u need to reach the bankroll ammount.
RoR in the second case would be more high.
 
It's to level set people's expectations and for the community to reference this thread when someone starts crying on the forums about how they did explosives or big mobs on a small budget and very quickly lost everything... tip.. their ror is over 75%.

This thread has been included in my "PE essentials" bookmark tab ;)

 
You guys need to not take it all so seriously. :)

Besides it's not about helping others out, it's about bigging it up. Hey guys look at me, I'm going rub your nose in it, because I'm so superior than you threads.

We get the 'I've never deposited' threads, but it never comes with "this is how I exactly did it".

Or I got 20K hof, but I didn't tell you I deposited for 20K to buy a gun.....LOL.

Or I've not deposited for 6 months, but I won't tell you that I lost $50K in the previous two years....LOL.

Or I made my money in the days you could add an A106 to Apolo days.
Or I made my money in mining when you could trick the system into given hofs if you let the little claims expire (not that I did mining, but that's what I heard after MA closed that backdoor)

Or I deposited $50K to buy CLD, and always profit, but don't mention you own the said CLD's (you paid for).

Then you try and bulls**t everyone into thinking it's the same game as 10 years ago, and everything is the same under the hood. Even though we all know MM is now worthless because everything is now eco.....come on guys don't make me laugh.

Look this is how it's gonna be for me:

I've got around 500 ped on my card, and I won't be depositing $1000 for 10k ped bankroll.
I'll skill a few pets, maybe cut down a few trees, I'm cool with that.

If that's how the game wants me to roll....fine...mwah to you all.

Keep it real...big smile. I'm happy.

Rick

ps: And I've got 4 beautiful daughters (which I need to keep Fort away from), and get tons of sex from my nympho wife...so all is cool.
 
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i dont understand why u calculate the RoR only on one "bet" (4.000ped) and not on all bets u need to reach the bankroll ammount.
RoR in the second case would be more high.

The bet is per kill for which we calculate variance. Daily cycle amount is a time based marker. Since we need to calculate and reference a static variable (1 day) to quantify the risk (50 straight DAYS of 80%), this was the logical choice for the formula.

To expand, higher mobs with a 4000ped bankroll have a much higher variance than smaller mobs with 4000ped bankroll.
 
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<lot of off topic stuff>.

Jaded much?

This thread isn't for you. Play the game like you want.

The analogy with you is..you can help a grandma cross the road to be helpful, but if she didn't want to cross the road then you've wasted time and opened yourself to getting beat with a heavy purse.
 
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some bullshit

You're not just looking a gift-horse in the mouth, you're punching it in the face and calling it a !!!!.

In half of your examples, the people who deposited have their investments & profit from their investments. Are these not... smart people?

5$ has told you exactly how he has skilled to level 100. Look at his hunting logs. Every single bit of data is there for you to look at, use and manipulate.

You say don't take it seriously.. but constantly (and I mean, constantly) whine on the forum about losing PED, for the last 5 years.
 
I've been thinking about trying to hunt mobs below my level, but I would like to know how do you choose which mobs to hunt and which mobs to avoid at any particular skill level/item set up?

What I would really like to see, and what I think would be really useful, is a guide that explains a good order to hunt mobs based on skills and gear. We have the SIB ladder which I think is really useful to guide people in choosing the next gun but nothing to explain which mobs are appropriate at each rung.

I also see this occasionally in rookie chat people asking "what mob should I hunt now".
 
I've been thinking about trying to hunt mobs below my level, but I would like to know how do you choose which mobs to hunt and which mobs to avoid at any particular skill level/item set up?

What I would really like to see, and what I think would be really useful, is a guide that explains a good order to hunt mobs based on skills and gear. We have the SIB ladder which I think is really useful to guide people in choosing the next gun but nothing to explain which mobs are appropriate at each rung.

I also see this occasionally in rookie chat people asking "what mob should I hunt now".

As any of the seasoned players can tell you, I am constantly whining (or have) about what to hunt now. The answer always ends up being whatever is fun and drops some markup. Why hunt proteron if they drop nothing and are boring? But maybe that's not true for someone shooting 200dps. In the end, you have to do what motivates you, is fun, and doesn't make you burn out in the game. For ubers, it's big ass mobs. For me, I am stressed the hell out shooting eomon youngs. Only you can help you with what to hunt because I'm the last person that can help you with it. I struggle with it ALL the time. Lately it has been anything that helped me get L100 and had some moderate markup OR if it was a target worth exploring for data collection.

What I've given you in this thread is a box.. parameters to select your hunting targets so that you don't go beyond the risk you're willing to accept in your daily activities.
 
Math, calculations, Holy Perception isn't even mentioned. Lookie here all good children of Lootius, THIS is how sacrilege looks like! That's how a motherload of heresy and decadence looks like!

:wtg:

The analogy with you is..you can help a grandma cross the road to be helpful, but if she didn't want to cross the road then you've wasted time and opened yourself to getting beat with a heavy purse.
Now *that* should be stickied! ;)
 
I must admit I've learned basics from treads like this one :wise:, old ones obviously, you can't read anything helpful on PCF in the last 3 years or maybe more.
It doesn't work for everyone obviously , some believe in perception , other in lootious or some believe their avatar is marked and they can't hof :))
This tread only helps those who whine about 50% return and they do short runs, but this does't make you a profitable hunter, its a long way but managing your bankroll is critical.

When i used to play WOW i remember how well the starting area was designed , it could guide you from noob to medium player gradually but adding new skills, content, missions, mobs to the area so you could grasp it little by little and get used to it.We can't find this in EU.

When I first joined I couldn't know what was the purpose of the game, what is my role , what do I have to do and I had atleast 500 more questions like this and no one who could help me.

It is critical for Mindark to make tutorials public about the game and its purpose, explain people common play style about the game, professions, trading , investing etc.
Its a pity to see avatars playing the game for 10 years + and they have no clue about the game, they feel like in the same day when they step in camp icarus but what's the sad part of this story is that they still expect 5digit just because they are old in the game, no one explained to the you must contribute and turnover.
 
I must admit I've learned basics from treads like this one :wise:, old ones obviously, you can't read anything helpful on PCF in the last 3 years or maybe more.
It doesn't work for everyone obviously , some believe in perception , other in lootious or some believe their avatar is marked and they can't hof :))
This tread only helps those who whine about 50% return and they do short runs, but this does't make you a profitable hunter, its a long way but managing your bankroll is critical.

When i used to play WOW i remember how well the starting area was designed , it could guide you from noob to medium player gradually but adding new skills, content, missions, mobs to the area so you could grasp it little by little and get used to it.We can't find this in EU.

When I first joined I couldn't know what was the purpose of the game, what is my role , what do I have to do and I had atleast 500 more questions like this and no one who could help me.

It is critical for Mindark to make tutorials public about the game and its purpose, explain people common play style about the game, professions, trading , investing etc.
Its a pity to see avatars playing the game for 10 years + and they have no clue about the game, they feel like in the same day when they step in camp icarus but what's the sad part of this story is that they still expect 5digit just because they are old in the game, no one explained to the you must contribute and turnover.


I personally liked the days of no hand-holding when starting EU.. although it cost me a decent amount of money.. i learned a ton and the excitement/mystery involved in the game made it great. Knowing nothing was never more fun..

P.S. throwback to getting chased by atrox fresh of the boat at PA.

I don't think MA needs to make the game more new-player friendly at all.. even if that's what the next generation of gamers is used to. Community driven research like this is the best.
 
I personally liked the days of no hand-holding when starting EU.. although it cost me a decent amount of money.. i learned a ton and the excitement/mystery involved in the game made it great. Knowing nothing was never more fun..

P.S. throwback to getting chased by atrox fresh of the boat at PA.

I don't think MA needs to make the game more new-player friendly at all.. even if that's what the next generation of gamers is used to. Community driven research like this is the best.

I think the problem like many have said over the last couple of years is that you got addjust your game play, so it dont matter how old or skilled you are if you are not will to change your style of playing when need be. There is lots of good starting areas and with universal chat now questions can be easly aswered. When i started on ROCKtropia i was luck to see anyone and i had know idea what i was doing. Eventually i met some good people who i learnt the basics, but yes the fun bit was learning the hard way and even now i am still learning.
 
I played in beta... I played again in 2005.. and both times I felt alone and eventually didn't stick to the game. The global chats help more than people realize. If those existed back then, I would have started much earlier.
 
i've started playing in 2005 too, and for like 7-8 years i had no friggin idea how to do it right. i'm glad i was able to change my mind before i go crazy or bankrupt, and everything you wrote fits perfectly to my own observations, even tho i'm in no way numbercrunching like you. no problem, all makes finally sense.

ty! keep it up please! :dunce:
 
if anyone have any doubts about what five dolla wrote in this thread I can assure you is totally true. I tested myself when "bond" posted his thread. The verification were so emphasized when I made my test, that I was stunned.
The thing is some of us we can’t keep rolling a big budget so we learned to live with it and trying to reduce loss by tricks or smart decisions. Sometimes that isn’t possible so we keep going like we paying subscription fee.
Entropia is awesome world so it’s acceptable to keep it MA running it :)

Threads like this one kept me playing and helped me to understand how things working. Some years ago were many more people who contributed to this forum. Dunno why but usefull and helpfull info are less lately.

once again thanks five dolla :)
 
i've started playing in 2005 too, and for like 7-8 years i had no friggin idea how to do it right. i'm glad i was able to change my mind before i go crazy or bankrupt, and everything you wrote fits perfectly to my own observations, even tho i'm in no way numbercrunching like you. no problem, all makes finally sense.

ty! keep it up please! :dunce:

It's actually the number crunching that makes the game fun for me. Always have been that way. I was a min/maxer in every rpg.
 
It's actually the number crunching that makes the game fun for me. Always have been that way. I was a min/maxer in every rpg.

call me stupid, it was always hunting and chasing that made the fun for me, i never did it for the cash. to say it has always been fun would be nothing but a lie, because it wasn't quite fun when i lost my poor ass off.

ofc i'm a perceptionist too. where's my rubber jacket (L)? :laugh:

:smoke:
 
call me stupid, it was always hunting and chasing that made the fun for me, i never did it for the cash. to say it has always been fun would be nothing but a lie, because it wasn't quite fun when i lost my poor ass off.

ofc i'm a perceptionist too. where's my rubber jacket (L)? :laugh:

:smoke:

Ok, stupid.

:popcorn: :laugh:
 
I've always said the most common mistake new players make is hunting too high. I guess this quantifies it. On the other hand, sometimes you just want to buy a few boxes, grab a gun, and go shoot some rhino beetles.

This isn't really a thread about how you should play. How high you choose to hunt compared to your bankroll is a way for players to set their own variance, or excitement. While players have always argued about where MA should set the variance of loot returns...high/exciting or low/sustainable...to some extent, this is something that players can also do for themselves. We can engage in high-risk hunting, choosing to pay more for entertainment, if risk is what entertains us. That's the system, and, as long as we understand that that is what we are, in fact, doing, we really have no valid cause to complain. What this thread is about is understanding that system and our own choices. The argument that MA owes us more entertainment for our dollars, or that it would be better business practice for MA to offer us more entertainment for our dollars, is a separate discussion.

Also, I think that people who enjoy research, reading, theorycrafting, and the like, are the natural market for EU. I've always thought the ads should say something like, "Entropia Universe, the crunchiest game you'll ever play!"
 
Ah I remember back in the days the tip was to have enough ped to hunt for the "Balancer".

Think it was Apollo + A103 with 500 ped minimum ammo to spend on Corns by the beach ;)
 
This thread is what an avg joe( i understand you mean mid lvl hunters with it ? ) needs. We had peds to buy proper gear and time but stayed out of hunting and crafting becoz of all the crying and bitching of most ppl. Reading your first post will help many hunters to improve or understand what is happening. I wish i had read something like this 2 years back.

+rep $5
 
This thread is what an avg joe( i understand you mean mid lvl hunters with it ? ) needs. We had peds to buy proper gear and time but stayed out of hunting and crafting becoz of all the crying and bitching of most ppl. Reading your first post will help many hunters to improve or understand what is happening. I wish i had read something like this 2 years back.

+rep $5

Personally I find these threads a bit of a mind f***, catch 22, dammed if you agree, dammed if you don’t.

Everyone already knows you need to keep shooting and hope for a balancer (glob/hof). You learn that in your first month.

The argument here, is the suggestion there will “always” be a balancer as long as you have enough bankroll to cover the number of mobs before that balancer occurs (or number of crafts).

What I find funny (not against the OP), is the suggestion that bankroll will save you from losses. I don’t think that’s true,…I think all it does is prolong the inevitable….that game needs to be paid.

It’s not about your bankroll, it’s about what you’re prepared to contribute to MA over a period of time (however you acquire that bankroll is down to debate, deposit, trade whatever).

Ask any high roller explo crafter even after ATH’s…..if that’s true. Let’s say you have an 80K ped ATH on explo and throw it back in the machine. That means your bankroll was $8K plus whatever you already threw in the machine. Why wasn’t that enough?

I’d agree to the point that you need some reasonable turnover to carry you through, but eventually the system will win.

So pay or play to your budget and be happy.

There’s no need to go on the personal attack either, I just tell it how it is. You can wrap it up however you like, it’s still going to cost peds (regardless how you acquire those peds, or how big your bankroll is).

Big smile

Rick
 
Personally I find these threads a bit of a mind f***, catch 22, dammed if you agree, dammed if you don’t.

Everyone already knows you need to keep shooting and hope for a balancer (glob/hof). You learn that in your first month.

The argument here, is the suggestion there will “always” be a balancer as long as you have enough bankroll to cover the number of mobs before that balancer occurs (or number of crafts).

What I find funny (not against the OP), is the suggestion that bankroll will save you from losses. I don’t think that’s true,…I think all it does is prolong the inevitable….that game needs to be paid.

It’s not about your bankroll, it’s about what you’re prepared to contribute to MA over a period of time (however you acquire that bankroll is down to debate, deposit, trade whatever).

Ask any high roller explo crafter even after ATH’s…..if that’s true. Let’s say you have an 80K ped ATH on explo and throw it back in the machine. That means your bankroll was $8K plus whatever you already threw in the machine. Why wasn’t that enough?

I’d agree to the point that you need some reasonable turnover to carry you through, but eventually the system will win.

So pay or play to your budget and be happy.

There’s no need to go on the personal attack either, I just tell it how it is. You can wrap it up however you like, it’s still going to cost peds (regardless how you acquire those peds, or how big your bankroll is).

Big smile

Rick

Well it's just a guideline to increase your % against the house. Not how to win.

Hell I've had 10 friends just finding out of this game, and when I explain all the other factors that's been removed from the game from when I started back in the days. (Profit opportunities) They just don't want to play.
 
The argument here, is the suggestion there will “always” be a balancer as long as you have enough bankroll to cover the number of mobs before that balancer occurs (or number of crafts).

That's not really what is being argued.

It's about sizing your activity relative to your budget to manage the risk of short term fluctuations in returns.

Profit (or lack of loss) continues to come from other players.
 
Profit (or lack of loss) continues to come from other players.

This should be sticky on EU tracker/Launcher and with this in mind maybe they will see the game from another perspective and would stop blame MA when they have bad loot.
 
$5 - this is a pretty interesting thread and it makes a lot of sense.

I had a question about "bankroll".
- how would this apply to us that do a monthly deposit.
I deposit $50.00 a month right now.

How much bankroll should I have to make this $50.00 the most effective?

My goal has never been to "beat the house" its just to play within my means. I really can't afford to play big, so what I do is just save up my deposit and play in the events like mayhem, gold rush, migration. The rest of the months I sweat.

Is there a good equation to factor in if a player deposits X a month - he should have a bankroll of Y - in order to keep from TTing loot and loosing potential markup.
 
On top of what was said here, I would like to add something: keep your hunts constant.
Like, you have to start somewhere. Ok, this dude is superrich, I only have 1k or less, what to do.

1. Set skilling prio and dedicate a bit to it. Say, 1 month. Nomatter what, this month I will hunt with X item. Pick something which is easily found and lowish MU if not UL.

2. According to the item, set your hunting budget/run. It would be unrealistical to make 100 ped hunts with lvl50 hg or 500 ped runs with tt knife. From my own xp, something like 5-10 tt knives=run, next step would be about 70/run etc. I feel comfy at about 30 dps with 300 ped/run. Here is a balance with overall budget also, of course. Using 3 L swords/run would be an obvious math, but sometimes is more difficult. Either cumulate some shrapnel (like hunt 1 week to this purpose: cumulate shrapnel) either use the decay of gun as counter or the decay of amp etc.

3. Cannot stress this enough: keep your hunts constant. 500 kils, 275, 240 ped etc, such numbers have absolut no relevance for your individual case. Just whatever you do, do it constant, because then you will get to feel the lows and highs and such you'll know when you can block some cash in storage and when you have to be more free from this pov. That's why I talked about measure with decay of gun, because looted ammo can confuse. Don't shoot it. Stay constant, if is 100 ped a run, is 100. Keep track of all your results for tens of runs.

4. Pick 2-3 mobs of comparable hp aggro etc so as offensive+decay exp/run would be in same league constantly. After slaughtering one for say 10 runs, try to mix others. Maybe you will find some mobs which would keep you rather static, hence no need for balancer loot. Myself prefer this way but to each his/her own.

5. use tt fap inbetween kills IF YOU ARE NOT IN A TIMED EVENT. Use emergency fap only if the mob can kill you in like two hits+crit. If not, just tt fap.

6. stay away from armours which has 12 protections across the board. Decay works by summing all protections to calculate cost/pt of prot, so a 15 imp hit will be more costly on a 15 imp 10 acid 20 electric 5 cut 10 pene armor than on a 15 imp pure armour (absurd examples). Good rule would be about max 3% def cost (armour and fap) compared to offensive.

7. until you clear your mind, drop all fancyness: sights, scopes, enhancers, pets, clothes anything which adds even 1 pec.

8. use only maxed guns and no overkill amps.

These are just very basic guidelines. The whole point is to get you "into it", to get a feel of where is your ava standing, which are your limits etc etc. Afterwards you can think at finesses like looted MU, market, suitable risk, suitable overkill or overdecay, speedskill etc. You will not be a champ with what I said here, you will just start to learn.

You will try to do what I said and you will fail. Do it again. You'll have "aha" moments. Don't expect to be a EU-computer from 1st month of self education.

The argument here, is the suggestion there will “always” be a balancer as long as you have enough bankroll to cover the number of mobs before that balancer occurs (or number of crafts).

There is a big catch, and quite obvious. The game has a certain tolerance for running on negative markup, dmg/pec lower than 3 etc, because otherwise all our pedcards would be dead in days. However, this tolerance is not extreme. That is, with an absurd example, you cannot slap Eamp 15 on tt handgun and hope to break even. Sure, this is obvious, but let's get into finer details a bit.

If you hunt, for example, at about 15-20 dps, a lootpill from tt will last for about 1 hr. Time in which you spend about 100 ped. Sure 0,5% is not huge. But that added to, say, some L bought too expensive (preferably a regular melee to have % the highest impact), not much, 5%. Some enhancers, for the heck of it? L amp bought from auction and not suitable from dps perspective. Overprotection with some silly armour like gremlin. L fap used too often when the tt would do the job (between kills e.g.). Letting mobs gang you because you heard that's how you skill evade. Etc. Not an exhaustive list, but I think it makes the point clear. Without a lot of care, all these little details can sum up to a running deficit which simply cannot be returned by the game. Hence, even a 2-300 pedder (or a string of >70tt globs) which would be balancers for mobs <1k hp would not, in time, bring you on +. Am not trying to doctor anyone, just speaking from own experience. And I didn't even mentioned auction fees.
 
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$5 - this is a pretty interesting thread and it makes a lot of sense.

I had a question about "bankroll".
- how would this apply to us that do a monthly deposit.
I deposit $50.00 a month right now.

How much bankroll should I have to make this $50.00 the most effective?

My goal has never been to "beat the house" its just to play within my means. I really can't afford to play big, so what I do is just save up my deposit and play in the events like mayhem, gold rush, migration. The rest of the months I sweat.

Is there a good equation to factor in if a player deposits X a month - he should have a bankroll of Y - in order to keep from TTing loot and loosing potential markup.

For 50 bucks a month.. your options are few.. mostly focus should be around building bankroll. Sweat, shoot halix or something, small mining, buying auds with small profits... maybe every 12 halix tails = you buy 1 aud. That is if you want the peds to last. Otherwise, youll be depositing and grinding until you get an equalizer
 
That's not really what is being argued.

It's about sizing your activity relative to your budget to manage the risk of short term fluctuations in returns.

Profit (or lack of loss) continues to come from other players.

Yes. To Rick's quote, there will always be high impact events in low downswings.. law of large numbers dictates that over the long term values will converge to their mean. How long that takes is actually in an infinite timeline (not helpful i know). If you are under the mean, it'll be adjusted. For it not to follow the LAW, leads to conspiracies and mindark (a bank) will not be allowed to do that.

You won't be able to beat my system with the OP, this gives you a chance for your markup and other fruits to catch up to your losses.
 
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