Help: Less claims over time .

Very interesting, I do not know how but now I am convinced that the game wants to make sure you break even. The less claims over time thing kicked in again last night, after having a brilliant run after calculating the concentration and other stuff perfectly I came back with 31 peds from 10 probes.

So I decide, like one does to try again, the concentration in all the areas that I mined dropped significantly that I was forced to use 1% and even that did not work the way that I wanted it to, the game could be increasing the frequency of hits if your loot is under what it should be and visa-versa.

At least I managed to break even on two other rather bad runs .
 
do your runs consist of 10 probes each? Oo... a run should have at least 200-500 drops to get anywhere close to a reliable return. more would be better
 
do your runs consist of 10 probes each? Oo... a run should have at least 200-500 drops to get anywhere close to a reliable return. more would be better

I do not wish to invest such large amounts of money at once, just for an entertainment product. The fact remains that it's becoming more and more apparent that the game has some sort of self balancer, more testing ....
 
the problem is that for reliable tests you need to invest at least 10k peds in probes to get anywhere close to manifest a theory that can be proven. a few hundred drops are just luck. 1 few 10k drops arent that much luck anymore.
 
the problem is that for reliable tests you need to invest at least 10k peds in probes to get anywhere close to manifest a theory that can be proven. a few hundred drops are just luck. 1 few 10k drops arent that much luck anymore.

True, but I need to refine the concept first and not get side tracked by things like getting less claims over time ...
 
Had the same thing happen yesterday happen, I was running at a little bit of a loss, hit a considerable which evened me out and down went my hit rate right afterwards ...
 
Personally I do 50-100 drops runs at a time and getting conclusions after....1000 or something :)
I can figure out if I'm in a good timing, after first 10 or 20 drops. If I have 3/10 or more is good. But also significant thing is, "what" claims I have in mind to be there and what I got.
If you have 10+ drops NRF, stop and do something else. We talking for planetside mining always here.
Again I'm not the best person to be an example, I'm kinda crazy spender!
 
Personally I do 50-100 drops runs at a time and getting conclusions after....1000 or something :)
I can figure out if I'm in a good timing, after first 10 or 20 drops. If I have 3/10 or more is good. But also significant thing is, "what" claims I have in mind to be there and what I got.
If you have 10+ drops NRF, stop and do something else. We talking for planetside mining always here.
Again I'm not the best person to be an example, I'm kinda crazy spender!

The problem with that is that you are going to be subject to a greater variance. The current model that I have has different points on the map, assigned to different weights, and over the past couple of days, their accuracy has been increasing, but as I have stated before, as soon as I break even or profit , these points just vanish and I have to start charging them up before they will produce resources.

It's almost like the fictional law of equivalent exchange. It could be that it's just random numbers doing what random numbers do, but I think there is more to it than that.
 
the question is: why would MA introduce a complicated system which can be predicted and exploited when there is a very easy way to randomize it and make it unexloitable.
 
the question is: why would MA introduce a complicated system which can be predicted and exploited when there is a very easy way to randomize it and make it unexloitable.

Problem is that it is not random, you cannot expect to get a mining claim by sitting on the same location dropping probes, if it is random, its more complex now as you have to black list every probed coordinate and apply a cool down timer on it.
 
the question is: why would MA introduce a complicated system which can be predicted and exploited when there is a very easy way to randomize it and make it unexloitable.

You cannot exactly call the mining system random, since there are some spots that seems to have specific resources. The true RNG of the system lies in which resources you generate with your probes. Hofs and good hitrate are things I believe is bound to your personal loot cycle and that the loot servers themselves are more static. Although I think which common/rare ores you find at the moment is somewhat time-based and dynamic. Here is an example of what I mean is the static of the lootservers:

Each day I go to a redulite spot, which is about 200-300 m radius and I usually find (generate) 1-4 claims here. I believe this spot is static on what types of ores it generates. When I do not hit redulite here, there are about three (RNG) events I think might be the reason for the failure:

1) Bad luck made me generate common ores instead. I have probably at least 50% chance on spawning redulite if I spawn 4 claims at this area, with right timing and the right mining tools. Higher depth increase the chance to roll redulite and too big amplifier will decrease it, but it gives a chance to hit a bigger claim that might be redulite.

2) Awful hitrate made me not spawn anything here at all.

3) Redulite might be capped at the moment, forcing the server to not give chance for redulite at all. Although this should not happen since it is a "common" rare ore these days. Remember that some very rare resources are capped on claim size nowadays. This can be considered a static feature as well.

This example of my daily mining both contains RNG and not. The RNG is mostly bound to generating the claim and abit depending on my personal loot cycle. The static is that this hotspot area always have a chance to generate redulite (except for if its capped).

The word exploitable is thrown around alot these days in Entropia and I think it is hard to define what exactly is exploitable. This method gives me a fair chance on spawning a rare resource and I use the knowledge of area, timing and mining tools to boost my chances on generating a rare resource. Is this not the same thing as the so called "rare-wave hunting" exploting many people complain about? :scratch2:
 
You cannot exactly call the mining system random, since there are some spots that seems to have specific resources. The true RNG of the system lies in which resources you generate with your probes. Hofs and good hitrate are things I believe is bound to your personal loot cycle and that the loot servers themselves are more static. Although I think which common/rare ores you find at the moment is somewhat time-based and dynamic. Here is an example of what I mean is the static of the lootservers:

Each day I go to a redulite spot, which is about 200-300 m radius and I usually find (generate) 1-4 claims here. I believe this spot is static on what types of ores it generates. When I do not hit redulite here, there are about three (RNG) events I think might be the reason for the failure:

1) Bad luck made me generate common ores instead. I have probably at least 50% chance on spawning redulite if I spawn 4 claims at this area, with right timing and the right mining tools. Higher depth increase the chance to roll redulite and too big amplifier will decrease it, but it gives a chance to hit a bigger claim that might be redulite.

2) Awful hitrate made me not spawn anything here at all.

3) Redulite might be capped at the moment, forcing the server to not give chance for redulite at all. Although this should not happen since it is a "common" rare ore these days. Remember that some very rare resources are capped on claim size nowadays. This can be considered a static feature as well.

This example of my daily mining both contains RNG and not. The RNG is mostly bound to generating the claim and abit depending on my personal loot cycle. The static is that this hotspot area always have a chance to generate redulite (except for if its capped).

The word exploitable is thrown around alot these days in Entropia and I think it is hard to define what exactly is exploitable. This method gives me a fair chance on spawning a rare resource and I use the knowledge of area, timing and mining tools to boost my chances on generating a rare resource. Is this not the same thing as the so called "rare-wave hunting" exploting many people complain about? :scratch2:

Very similar to my way of thinking... Except I can express it using maths :)

I have a grid that covers the size of the server, this grid contains a squared fermat spiral which rotates, the level of natural loot that each location contains is based off of its number, quick example.

Headers
678
501
432

It is literally as simple as that, the number's could actually be seen as coordinates
x=middle of grid+cos(2*pi()*0.618*header)*sqrt(header)*radius
y=middle of grid-sin(2*pi()*0.618*header)*sqrt(header)*radius
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermat%27s_spiral


Obviously the above has not been transformed to make it fit into a square.
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1509/1509.06344.pdf

Loot Levels

234
101
232

PS. If you can figure out how I worked out the loot levels, please pm me. The loot levels are the actual ones I am currently using and forms a nice slightly tailed to the right normal distribution bell curve.

So what it does, is it moves

567
408
321

If the area that you are in has a below average loot level, the game compensates.

123
000
121

Higher loot level

345
212
343

Depending on how well an avatar performs, the loot levels are also personally adjusted, and equivalent exchange kicks in, the game will not let you get a resource if you have not paid for it.. Consider trying to take a class 15 resource without having enough of a loss in order to pay for it, the game will either down grade it ie a lower number, pay for it in another way eg skill gain or just give you a big fat NRF.

At this moment in time I am 50 ped in profit so my personal pool is empty, I will have to spend at least that amount to charge it..

I am also thinking that the global loot pool is a pipe dream, long live the personal loot pool...

Simple as that..
 
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So after a year of posting this thread, nothing has changed, hit rate still decreases over time...

Even the loot values in the claims decrease over time if the same "spiral matrix" is used. Increasing the complexity of the matrix ie the amount of points in the matrix does increase the loot but also increases the distance between the points in the array.

The largest array cannot be applied to Calypso as the distance between the points is just too large, I will have to test on FOMA or some similar area with a smaller finder radius.
 
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I have decided to switch focus (and to the benefit of my severely depleted credit card) to the depletion of mining claims over time.

I will be using a simple hex matrix with parameters that will stop me from mining when the below goals are accomplished.

1) Profit of 25% or more
2) Hitrate % less than 25%

All data will be logged and this will be attempted once a day.
 
To be honest, I am not sure what precisely you're trying to pinpoint.

Over large enough tries (haven't decided yet if it's purely number of drops or ped spent or time), the hitrate stabilizes to your luck cycle for hitrate (A). In the way I mine, this seems to be a multiple of about 600 peds/server. Respectively triple drop unamped vs triple drop with L3 for me stabilizes after +- 200 drops. Or, maybe, after roughly 4 hours which take me to wrap up such a run. The lows of hitrate over this interval (drops/ped spent/time or a combination of all) for me is around 26%. The highs around 46%. The average 31 to 32%. Single/double/triple dropping seem to have different elasticity, with single the most volatile and triple the most stable. But then again, single drop the most manageable MUwise while triple the most difficult from this pov.

But then, over the hitrate comes your luck cycle of average tt size/find (B). In the L3 scenario above at 33% hitrate, averages with a considerable here and there leads to aprox 85%. Larges and a global here and there will generate roughly 10% tt extra. Subpar finds (modests mainly) will go toward 70% tt.

Then comes your luck cycle in hitting multipliers (C). So you can have a run with 25% saved by a hof or a run of 46% hitrate wich returns some 102% tt in total due to 0 big multi.

Then, the efficiency of the find (D). Which splits into two: objective rarity of the find (based on depth distribution) and MU (either by real consumption, such as iron, either by active balancing from MA, such as putty and ignisium).

Lastly, bankroll management (E) where you need three major areas: liquid peds for probes and amps, stacks in storage waiting to be filled and stacks on auction waiting to be sold. On Caly you can have 33% each, but on Ark the stacks on the AH and storage tend to go towards 40% if not more. RT is almost 50% 50% storage and liquid, since trading is more effective on Caly. And then again this varies for particular resources, ignisium gets sold even at 30tt in minutes maybe while edres resin (comparably rare) barely sells 100tt per week.

Out of ABCDE combination you can actively manage and influence only A and E, while BCD are dynamic and you can only observe and speculate. Completely counterintuitive, you should also only worry for A and E. There is no point in pondering SO much on hitrate and tt found. Yes I would advise against pushing blindly in an outrageous scenario of say 20% hitrate, but that's about it. For the rest, it averages over time.

My current log for example at aprox 11k tt spent points toward 103% tt return and I would presume at circa 12k I would reach 100%. Ignoring ofc the tower from yesterday, I consider it a jackpot. MU overall I think points toward +600. I think, because I had a spree of shopping on Caly 1 week ago and I think I buried into that some 700 peds on various items. Out of all mentioned factors, it did not affect me so much mining this server or that server, doing unamped or amped, overlapping 1% or not at all, looking at the sun inclination and what not. No, the only sensible thing which almost destabilized me was that shopping spree.

Sure, by all means, if you have a passion in analyzing stuff, go on with it. But I know you since forever, if after all these years, all these stats push you to depleted cc, maybe take a step back and focus on what you can manage instead of what they can manage and do their best to not let you see (as is naturally to be, btw). Apologies if this feels like lecturing, I am not who knows what master of mining. But my mistake was jumping through professions almost like ADHD, while you stayed on mining all this time. Should also benefit your own pedcard with all these ideas and observations, not only the community.

Cheers mate and gl :beerchug:

P.S.: I also believe there is a descending curve over time so you don't do some 100h run mining same field over and over. Similar somehow to the anti-camping tt evolution observable in hunting. So you need to switch areas in a decent manner to somehow mitigate this.
 
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Run 1

Hits:10
Average Loot : 43.2
Used Probes : 17*1.5
Return % : 169.41

Not too bad.... No spirals this time.... Just a hex grid.

I created this sheet months ago, should have used it months ago ...

Im going to give this one more shot... No more spirals, just optimal plays.

Thanks for the support Kerham.
 
Run 2

Abandoned ..... 4 drops in
 
Run 2 - Recovered

Hits 3
Used Probes 5*1.5
Hitrate 54.4%
Return % 133.13 %

Hell yea !!!!
 
Not gunna lie, your threads seem like legit insanity
 
Run 3 - Abandoned ....

Tried to run the same area again, huge failure wasted a whole 4 probes ........

The sheet is working exactly as expected ......
 
Run 4 Cell ID 2:5

Hits 1
Average loot 1.495
Return 145 %

25% Profit achieved ... RUN ended
 
You're trolling right? Between not only your theory, but also your run sizes, the only plausible explanation is that you are attempting to troll to the epitome of the words definition.


Please tell me this is the case.
 
[I think better and remove my post]
 
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You're trolling right? Between not only your theory, but also your run sizes, the only plausible explanation is that you are attempting to troll to the epitome of the words definition.


Please tell me this is the case.

Look this is not a theory. I created this sheet in order to let me know when to stop mining but it would have taken a lot of time and cpu power to adapt it for a typical spiral so I really did not use it.

The base array is a simple hex spanning a server of 8192m gap of 110m. I even posted the array generator on PCF.

I must admit I made a slight change in that I turned the hex into a spiral..... I gave it spiral like labels expanding from the center of the hex grid.

The sheet calculates the average loot from the size of the claim that is entered, it also plots a graph in real time showing profit / loss and eliminates locations from the hex grid depending on my hitrate, witch is worked out based on the sizes of the claims that I get... (Size 0 = miss) The sheet can work from any independent data set imported as a set of x and y coordinates in my case, its a simple hex.

Latest run ended in a loss .... I did run into another miner and decided to stop as I have no idea where they mined.
I lost about 10% of the 21 drops which is not too bad ...

The sheet in this run was 2% off from actual to estimated...
 
Run 6

Probes used 3*1.5
Profit % 38.6 (Actual was 44%)

The sheet is not allowing me to over extend and exert my bank roll. Anything over x% profit and it stops giving out coordinates....
 
To be honest, I am not sure what precisely you're trying to pinpoint.

Over large enough tries (haven't decided yet if it's purely number of drops or ped spent or time), the hitrate stabilizes to your luck cycle for hitrate (A). In the way I mine, this seems to be a multiple of about 600 peds/server. Respectively triple drop unamped vs triple drop with L3 for me stabilizes after +- 200 drops. Or, maybe, after roughly 4 hours which take me to wrap up such a run. The lows of hitrate over this interval (drops/ped spent/time or a combination of all) for me is around 26%. The highs around 46%. The average 31 to 32%. Single/double/triple dropping seem to have different elasticity, with single the most volatile and triple the most stable. But then again, single drop the most manageable MUwise while triple the most difficult from this pov.

But then, over the hitrate comes your luck cycle of average tt size/find (B). In the L3 scenario above at 33% hitrate, averages with a considerable here and there leads to aprox 85%. Larges and a global here and there will generate roughly 10% tt extra. Subpar finds (modests mainly) will go toward 70% tt.

Then comes your luck cycle in hitting multipliers (C). So you can have a run with 25% saved by a hof or a run of 46% hitrate wich returns some 102% tt in total due to 0 big multi.

Then, the efficiency of the find (D). Which splits into two: objective rarity of the find (based on depth distribution) and MU (either by real consumption, such as iron, either by active balancing from MA, such as putty and ignisium).

Lastly, bankroll management (E) where you need three major areas: liquid peds for probes and amps, stacks in storage waiting to be filled and stacks on auction waiting to be sold. On Caly you can have 33% each, but on Ark the stacks on the AH and storage tend to go towards 40% if not more. RT is almost 50% 50% storage and liquid, since trading is more effective on Caly. And then again this varies for particular resources, ignisium gets sold even at 30tt in minutes maybe while edres resin (comparably rare) barely sells 100tt per week.

Out of ABCDE combination you can actively manage and influence only A and E, while BCD are dynamic and you can only observe and speculate. Completely counterintuitive, you should also only worry for A and E. There is no point in pondering SO much on hitrate and tt found. Yes I would advise against pushing blindly in an outrageous scenario of say 20% hitrate, but that's about it. For the rest, it averages over time.

My current log for example at aprox 11k tt spent points toward 103% tt return and I would presume at circa 12k I would reach 100%. Ignoring ofc the tower from yesterday, I consider it a jackpot. MU overall I think points toward +600. I think, because I had a spree of shopping on Caly 1 week ago and I think I buried into that some 700 peds on various items. Out of all mentioned factors, it did not affect me so much mining this server or that server, doing unamped or amped, overlapping 1% or not at all, looking at the sun inclination and what not. No, the only sensible thing which almost destabilized me was that shopping spree.

Sure, by all means, if you have a passion in analyzing stuff, go on with it. But I know you since forever, if after all these years, all these stats push you to depleted cc, maybe take a step back and focus on what you can manage instead of what they can manage and do their best to not let you see (as is naturally to be, btw). Apologies if this feels like lecturing, I am not who knows what master of mining. But my mistake was jumping through professions almost like ADHD, while you stayed on mining all this time. Should also benefit your own pedcard with all these ideas and observations, not only the community.

Cheers mate and gl :beerchug:

P.S.: I also believe there is a descending curve over time so you don't do some 100h run mining same field over and over. Similar somehow to the anti-camping tt evolution observable in hunting. So you need to switch areas in a decent manner to somehow mitigate this.

You could call it a luck cycle, put I have a better hypothesis.. Skills.....

Now hear me out with this one. How proficient you are is represented by a set of numbers which represents skill points. With regards to the sheet that I have done, it consists of a set of index numbers that are currently allocated from the centre that rotate outwards like a spiral in ascending order based on distance from the centre.

Once can simple substitute point 0 for point skill. Next one would apply a number sequence to the array and filter out headers that do not match the sequence, for example prime numbers, even, odd, triangle.

The sheer combinations that can theoretically be used are mind boggling.

L8R
 
Another $10 ... I should really stop playing.... But I see it ....

Its really simple..

1) Entmatter and ore are the same thing.
2) Their sizes and locations are predictable.
3) The sizes vary over time.
 
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let me clear this up: you mine in very small sample sizes, you say you get easy 40% claim rate and you still lose money in the long run? all of this doesnt make any sense and i think its time to see that your "theory" doesnt work.
 
That may be true.... Its time to switch gears again ....
 
let me clear this up: you mine in very small sample sizes, you say you get easy 40% claim rate and you still lose money in the long run? all of this doesnt make any sense and i think its time to see that your "theory" doesnt work.

Problem is that I tend to overextend myself and that is what causes losses. I also do not stick to a set Excel sheet for long, they are constantly in flux based on observations.
 
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