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Loot Wave Prediction Software

Naomi

Naomi

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Naomi NP Polder
One of the issues that concerns all of us is:

The waves of loot

Better items typically drop on these waves.

Many tried to figure out these waves manually, some succeeded, some didn't.
Imo this is against the EULA or what it is called these days, since these players gain unfair advantages over others, through unavailable/borderline illegal information.

However, if people now make programs to track loot waves, in order to predict them... that's WAY over the edge.
These people drain the loot now, which means the rest of us are unable to gather a fair amount of markup items

It is very cool if you are on a loot-strike, or 'surf the wave' by luck.
That's a whole different thing of course. Fair, fun and honest.

From a programmers' perspective, this may actually be very easy to solve. Instead of setting the loot-wave to for instance 10 minutes, every 40 minutes or so, it could be changed to 10 seconds, every 40 seconds. This way the waves are too short to ride, but everyone gets his chance.
 
we did shut down wave software 1 month ago , even when we got answer for ma , that every software which uses chat log is legit.

grinders do not need any software , when you hunt all time, you see waves yourself.

Hi VVV,

Thank you for your support case.

You are allowed to create tools which use the log files as a base, that is ok.

Take care and best of luck.

Kind regards,
Ulf | Entropia Universe Support
Click to expand...


but to be clear, this program was made after knowing some big societies have such programs long ago already, just it was not for public.

it is still working .


//mg
 
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this whole fucking game is such a mess lately.
MA needs to do something about it or the recent whistleblowing will kill the game once and for all.
we NEED a loot system change and we NEED more transparency. we NEED fair game for everyone, no matter what timezone or what amount of time someone can play per day. everyone should have the same chance to loot something.
 
Loot wave system will stay forever because

Proof 1
- Non-randomness is pretty much required by Swedish gambling laws
- Since in hunting we may either shoot specific mob or don't shoot it we need to only observe time dependencies. In mining we need to observe resource location clusters as well
- There's 3 types of time dependency: constant, cyclic and trending
- Constant means loot return per mob is fixed. Not the case, it varies
- Trending means loot return per mob increases/decreases over time. Not the case, no loot is possible anytime
- Only cyclic time patterns are possible to implement non-randomness in time

Proof 2
- MA cannot really "print" items out of the air. They can't give shrooms for everybody else they risk going bankrupt
- loot pools must be periodically refilled to allow used items to go back to loot pool
- periodical time-based checks are a common practice in software development

What can they do? Nothing in general
 
They aren't stupid... even when payouts and item loots are based on a very obvious timed wave.... people are still going to shoot/mine the other 45 minutes of the hour or so between waves.


I'd love some RNG-based loot, as it would reward grinders, but that removes predictability and turns EU into a game of chance rather than skill in many aspects.

In an RNG environment, Ep4 would surely violate nearly every gambling law out there.

Really all you can do is exploit this advantage yourself as well... Personally, i've used seasonal boxes to determine waves before and then mined heavily, resulting in some hofs and even a tower or two, but it doesn't always work, because there's more to EU than just timing the waves. Regardless my TT return has remained the same whether I wave-hunt or not.

Edit: Wave loots are also redundant where resource caps have been reached.

Second Edit: LOL at everyone fighting over an extra 1-2% markup from wave loots. EU has really seen some better days it seems. And I thought the pissing contest over dpp and 102% returns was bad.
 
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stc44 said:
Loot wave system will stay forever because

Proof 1
- Non-randomness is pretty much required by Swedish gambling laws
- Since in hunting we may either shoot specific mob or don't shoot it we need to only observe time dependencies. In mining we need to observe resource location clusters as well
- There's 3 types of time dependency: constant, cyclic and trending
- Constant means loot return per mob is fixed. Not the case, it varies
- Trending means loot return per mob increases/decreases over time. Not the case, no loot is possible anytime
- Only cyclic time patterns are possible to implement non-randomness in time

Proof 2
- MA cannot really "print" items out of the air. They can't give shrooms for everybody else they risk going bankrupt
- loot pools must be periodically refilled to allow used items to go back to loot pool
- periodical time-based checks are a common practice in software development

What can they do? Nothing in general
Click to expand...

why would MA go bankrupt when they just magically switch every item to shrooms? shrooms have a fixed ped TT value, thats the value that MA needs to keep for it in spare in case someone wants to withdraw it.
if you get ped tt muscle or 1 ped tt shrooms doesnt matter a single bit for MA. reason is that the shrooms is worth 50 ped or 75 ped or whatever but they dont get these Peds by MA. they get them from someone else who needs to put them into the game beforehand to aquire them so that the person selling them can withdraw the money. nothing would change for MA.
MA could even go so far and release another trillion land plot deeds with a combined tt value of 0 ped. there is absolutely nothing on MAs side that would let them go bankrupt doing this.
 
now this forum started smelling like forex trading system threads, lol
 
The problem is not that people put effort into tools to analyse data and predict loot.

The problem is that MA continue to use a system that is predictable when it is quite feasible to implement a system that is not predictable.
 
Rocket192 said:
....

Really all you can do is exploit this advantage yourself as well... Personally, i've used seasonal boxes to determine waves before and then mined heavily, resulting in some hofs and even a tower or two, but it doesn't always work, because there's more to EU than just timing the waves. Regardless my TT return has remained the same whether I wave-hunt or not.
......
Click to expand...

You have the same tt return but way higher MU return if u know what to mine in the wave ....

Cheers
 
So run the loot wave software and post it into a chat channel when it starts and ends so everyone will sit around and do nothing and chat and be social until the waves start, then there will be a flurry of activity, then when it ends people can go back to being social and not be bothered with wasting ped for nothing and being unsocial.

I guess when MA said this is a skill based game and therefore not gambling, they were not referring to the skill one develops his avatar with, but the skill required to hunt waves :laugh:
 
Wow there are such programs?
Could you share a link to those programs and make it public?
Then everyon can have access to that info and nobody has an unfair advantage.
 
Mac said:
So run the loot wave software and post it into a chat channel when it starts and ends so everyone will sit around and do nothing and chat and be social until the waves start, then there will be a flurry of activity, then when it ends people can go back to being social and not be bothered with wasting ped for nothing and being unsocial.

I guess when MA said this is a skill based game and therefore not gambling, they were not referring to the skill one develops his avatar with, but the skill required to hunt waves :laugh:
Click to expand...

Waves are just symptoms of bad design.
 
The people who hunt these waves, probably 1 of them gets a phone call from MA saying, oh, some rings dropping in 5 mins blah blah, and passed on through fl. Just like the Space ship filled with gold, when space was launched, I've recently read about.
 
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So what you r saying is that u guys didnt use it for Strongboxen and not used it to get a easter egss when they started to drop in waves?

mg Joda VVV said:
we did shut down wave software 1 month ago , even when we got answer for ma , that every software which uses chat log is legit.

grinders do not need any software , when you hunt all time, you see waves yourself.




but to be clear, this program was made after knowing some big societies have such programs long ago already, just it was not for public.

it is still working .


//mg
Click to expand...
 
I haven't seen wave prediction software, I do know of wave item monitoring software. Big difference between the two. And the second is not illegal or even immoral at all imo, MA designed it this way. You might say it's undesirable but MA can't make it random because then it will be a slot machine and thus gambling.
 
Xen said:
I haven't seen wave prediction software, I do know of wave item monitoring software. Big difference between the two. And the second is not illegal or even immoral at all imo, MA designed it this way. You might say it's undesirable but MA can't make it random because then it will be a slot machine and thus gambling.
Click to expand...

entropialife.com monitors the loot

When you have a piece of software that turns green/red depending on how's the loot (or some triggers) that's a prediction attempt.

Here's a good read: https://www.wired.com/2017/02/russians-engineer-brilliant-slot-machine-cheat-casinos-no-fix/
 
Naomi said:
Instead of setting the loot-wave to for instance 10 minutes, every 40 minutes or so, it could be changed to 10 seconds, every 40 seconds. This way the waves are too short to ride, but everyone gets his chance.
Click to expand...
Most say the problem is not programmatic but preventing to be qualified as gambling. But then, if we talk in analogies - consider that slot machines built in a bug that would be able to be exploited, on purpose. Would that allow them to slip as no gambling activity? Don't think so.
Way better proof this business is not gambling is recorded examples of avatars consistently getting more than 100% tt return by doing a legit ingame activity. It does not fit into pvp gambling as they are not gambling with others directly. It does not fit into vs. house gambling as of the consistent 100%+ tt return. It allows having no waves. The only thing remains is to prove it is not a pyramide scheme, which is easy as no known pyramide scheme has been running for 10+ years.

Me Really Never said:
we NEED a loot system change and we NEED more transparency. we NEED fair game for everyone, no matter what timezone or what amount of time someone can play per day. everyone should have the same chance to loot something.
Click to expand...
+++

KijkkiJikki said:
The problem is that MA continue to use a system that is predictable when it is quite feasible to implement a system that is not predictable.
Click to expand...
+++

atomicstorm said:
Waves are just symptoms of bad design.
Click to expand...
+++
 
Xen said:
I haven't seen wave prediction software, I do know of wave item monitoring software. Big difference between the two. And the second is not illegal or even immoral at all imo, MA designed it this way. You might say it's undesirable but MA can't make it random because then it will be a slot machine and thus gambling.
Click to expand...

So you say that it's impossible that MA will change this s..t ? Nothing can be random but at least to do a new unpredictable loot system , without waves ?
PS : a little experience working on slot machines , the big pays come in waves . So Idk if now it like a slot machine or they want us to think that has nothing to do with it.
 
Xen said:
I haven't seen wave prediction software, I do know of wave item monitoring software. Big difference between the two. And the second is not illegal or even immoral at all imo, MA designed it this way. You might say it's undesirable but MA can't make it random because then it will be a slot machine and thus gambling.
Click to expand...

Has it always been in waves then? It only seem last couple years that the problem seem to be more out in the open.
 
Antrace said:
You have the same tt return but way higher MU return if u know what to mine in the wave ....

Cheers
Click to expand...

Less profit per hour in the end by not being able to mine the entirety of the hour ��

Further, Swedish gaming laws clearly distinguish between games of chance and skill. Those of chance are not allowed in online format, but games of skill can legally be held online. In any event, removal of wave-based loot will likely render EU a game of chance so arguing for it is redundant.

Moreover, Sweden has until September 2018 to confirm its gambling laws to EU restrictions. I'm not sure that would affect EU much, but let's not forget this game is indeed gambling. Game of skill doesn't mean it should be as blatantly predictable as it is now though
 
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Rocket192 said:
Further, Swedish gaming laws clearly distinguish between games of chance and skill. Those of chance are not allowed in online format, but games of skill can legally be held online. In any event, removal of wave-based loot will likely render EU a game of chance so arguing for it is redundant.
Click to expand...

Changes do not require the loot waves to be removed. If they are changed as stated in the OP, the wave surfing becomes useless.
 
Not sure how cost prohibitive it would be, but seems like the issue of MA having to comply with whatever gambling/anti-gambling laws could be solved by moving operations/servers to a gambling friendly country like Costa Rica, Antigua or whatever that .io country is, etc. Then they could make the loot algorithm random/less predicitable and (?)fair. And they could then market the game for what it really is, a gambling MMO-RCE.

As it currently exists, does MA's loot algorithm or whatever it is, actually even get audited and certified as being non-random by the PTB?
 
loot wave prediction knowledge and software ... quite useful!

ingame skill and attribute values, while not wanting to know any further ... ?!?!?

:scratch2:
 
stc44 said:
Proof 1
- Non-randomness is pretty much required by Swedish gambling laws
Click to expand...
"Pretty much required"? And how much is that?
Slap a label "PROOF" on some fuzzy rumor and BAM--there it is, a solid proof? Wish it was that simple! :)

girtsn said:
Way better proof this business is not gambling is recorded examples of avatars consistently getting more than 100% tt return.
Click to expand...
It'll only shift the problem to another place, not solve it.

Goes like this:
  1. MA arbitrarily chooses a certain avatar as their "poster child" and rigs the loot for him. (If they don't authorities think they might, so in the end there's no difference).
  2. Authorities ask for proof the system was working normally (wasn't rigged in any way).
From here, 2 possibilities: A) MA can't prove that and the whole thing leads nowhere or B) MA can prove that normal operation allows consistently higher returns (more than 100% tt).
Mind you, only demonstrating that inside system there's is no special exceptions for selected players isn't enough. It's just as easy to provide info to selected individuals using channels outside game. Incidentally, that's what people are already suspecting. I mean it's doubtful authorities would accept some kind of test as a proof. They, unlike us, have access to the code. From their viewpoint proving non-randomness is a purely mathematical question.

In other words: If B) is NOT possible, the "poster child" won't prove anything.
If it's possible, who needs the poster child? :yup:
 
Naomi said:
Changes do not require the loot waves to be removed. If they are changed as stated in the OP, the wave surfing becomes useless.
Click to expand...

Yes. I wasn't implying there isn't a different way to go about it... but pure RNG would not be allowed.

Certainly there's a better way to do it that isn't so predictable.
 
Gill said:
now this forum started smelling like forex trading system threads, lol
Click to expand...

There's a notable difference, namely:
  • on forex forums, every other poster claims they have the Grail,
  • on this forum, every other poster claims someone else has the Grail

On the face value, it might look an order of magnitude more stupid, but then, if you look at the whole commotion closely, it's mostly a vent for xenophobic sentiments some people harbor.
 
robber said:
So what you r saying is that u guys didnt use it for Strongboxen and not used it to get a easter egss when they started to drop in waves?
Click to expand...

exactly, why bother if all of our socmates and friend shoot nonstop and can say when got "an output" in teamspeak

tbh i opened my 5.2 k boxes nonstop before first ring dropped and got static 10% egg return.

and hearign some people about depo-withdraw is unfair, i can state taht i got 6770 ped of untradable (some unusable) stuff that makes it 45.230 ped ammo from 52.000 tt box
 
mg Joda VVV said:
exactly, why bother if all of our socmates and friend shoot nonstop and can say when got "an output" in teamspeak

tbh i opened my 5.2 k boxes nonstop before first ring dropped and got static 10% egg return.

and hearign some people about depo-withdraw is unfair, i can state taht i got 6770 ped of untradable (some unusable) stuff that makes it 45.230 ped ammo from 52.000 tt box
Click to expand...

and then lootius said... "let us have 5TT pills which are useless and cannot be sold!"
 
mg Joda VVV said:
exactly, why bother if all of our socmates and friend shoot nonstop and can say when got "an output" in teamspeak

tbh i opened my 5.2 k boxes nonstop before first ring dropped and got static 10% egg return.

and hearign some people about depo-withdraw is unfair, i can state taht i got 6770 ped of untradable (some unusable) stuff that makes it 45.230 ped ammo from 52.000 tt box
Click to expand...

Which outside of Neurostim Y is certainly acceptable.. so that doesn't nullify you dismissing the depo and withdraw comment.. because people ARE doing it. It's not a bad thing really unless you're exploiting waves (since you have the software and all). But for this, I blame mindark more than the players.. They are the ones halfassing development.
 
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