Developer Notes 13 - Loot-2.0 Statistics

morfoc said:

Magnificent post of MA lol
The sheep are happy or not
They put what they want
an example ? :
I deposited + 100kped and turn over more 400k I had lost everything ped card 0 but MA told me :

2015-02-19 08:26 Entropia Universe Support:


Hi,

We have examined your avatar’s activity back to June 2014 and have found nothing out of the ordinary. The returns your avatar has experienced are well within the expected range and consistent with those of other participants with similar levels of activity. In fact your TT return is positive in your favor.

The actual TT return you had on your crafting activity in this time is 105%. And if we only focus on this year your return is 117%, in your favor.

In this we are not including market value which in the case you buy things with high markup works to your disadvantage or if you sell with high markup makes your return even better. Please also note markup is not anything MindArk earns money on.


Kind Regards
Entropia Universe Support

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I have a funny feeling support is suddenly flooded with requests to obtain same stats for everyone else.

/shrug... tell me something i dont know.

Semm said:

What's the point to specify accounts created in 2017?

Very nice that you finally found your testicles MA.
Thanks for the communication efforts, really appreciated =)

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Because people on this forum always whine about noob luck

DoA said:

But now, tell me who was right all along? I said over and over again that I imagine that the mean value should be around 95% and that the top of the interval should be somewhere around 98%, allowing to break even via MU, which is almost spot on what the actual returns are (less than 1% difference for both value) and which MA says are very close to what they aimed for.

For example:

So, still yelling that I'm wrong all over and that I should shut up because I don't know what I'm talking about?

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Erm you dont seem to understand how statistics work at all.
If top players have a 97% avarage that mean roughly that 50% is in that range, 20% is either over or under and 5% is the extremes.
Iam waaay beyond 97% TT and i know a few high dpp guys that are doing well.
As for you beating your chest to these numbers...
Every single person in this game know that MA has a rake and MA even said before 2.0 that 93% should be the overall avarage.

Edit, i did sum up my log post 2.0 and its around 105% TT return at 105k cycle.
Last 40k i havent logged tho since its taking up time i could be shooting instead but its been going good.

carle said:

Erm you dont seem to understand how statistics work at all.
If top players have a 97% avarage that mean roughly that 50% is in that range, 20% is either over or under and 5% is the extremes.
Iam waaay beyond 97% TT and i know a few high dpp guys that are doing well.
As for you beating your chest to these numbers...
Every single person in this game know that MA has a rake and MA even said before 2.0 that 93% should be the overall avarage.

Edit, i did sum up my log post 2.0 and its around 105% TT return at 105k cycle.
Last 40k i havent logged tho since its taking up time i could be shooting instead but its been going good.

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Not technically correct. Averages do not really say anything about how the values are actually distributed. So we know nothing of how much spread (std dev) there is in the distribution. In addition, we have no sense of the weight. A large cycler with poor eco could have more weight than more eco but smaller cyclers (say 200k vs 100k).

Zho

Jhereg said:

Not technically correct. Averages do not really say anything about how the values are actually distributed. So we know nothing of how much spread (std dev) there is in the distribution. In addition, we have no sense of the weight. A large cycler with poor eco could have more weight than more eco but smaller cyclers (say 200k vs 100k).

Zho

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Ofc not could migth as well be every get exactly 97%
But since i be getting 105-110% range, heard of 115+% and ive also heard of <90% we kinda know our range.
Non of the top outliners have a hof out of the ordinary.

Hello,
it seems you forgot something all. Skills...
Skills have a value, this is the main reward from mission. I bet MA count skills on the statistics calculation.

Thanks MA for sharing average return, but it's not perfect like that. Because, if someone have 110% return and another one 84% return, you still have 97% average.
For me, the best is to see a leaderboard with % return for each players

Then we can see if we are all under 100% or if grinder are above and it will help people who have under 85% to upgrade there gear or change there gameplay.

If there is player above 100%, trust will come back, and UL items economy will restart.

If we play at this game, this is only because there was a possibility to win something. With 97%, there is no possibility, so why to play ? The gameplay, game mechanic, fun and graphics in this game are bad, the only one thing is real cash ecoomy. If there is no hope, there is no depositors.
I don't say to make easy profit, i just say let us think it's possible.

For who think i am a uber and i complain about loot, i would like to say no. I started 2 years ago, i'm level 77 hit blp pistoler and 72 dmg pistoler. I use Herman ASI TEN editiion+ Dante + Adj resto chip and IMP BE armor or Angel Armor. I'm just a middle player who find his fun to try to hit something big or nice. Now it seems it's more hard or impossible. So where is the fun ?

carle said:

Erm you dont seem to understand how statistics work at all.
If top players have a 97% avarage that mean roughly that 50% is in that range, 20% is either over or under and 5% is the extremes.
Iam waaay beyond 97% TT and i know a few high dpp guys that are doing well.
As for you beating your chest to these numbers...
Every single person in this game know that MA has a rake and MA even said before 2.0 that 93% should be the overall avarage.

Edit, i did sum up my log post 2.0 and its around 105% TT return at 105k cycle.
Last 40k i havent logged tho since its taking up time i could be shooting instead but its been going good.

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First of all, I have to say that I take everything you or anyone else in your selected 2% group is saying with a grain of salt for the simple reason that it seems that post 2.0 a lot of your friends started to have a lot of problems or opportunities in real life and are quitting and selling out like flies (and, no, obviously, not because the loots are down, like down to 97.29%; your loot still gives well over 100%, at least 'till it sells).

Then, it looks like you're the one not knowing anything about statistics. An average value doesn't say anything about the standard deviation (the amount of dispersion), so please stop spreading more BS.

Finally, sure, everyone knows that MA needs to have a share, but before these numbers were published every single time when I was saying that this share is probably around 5%, with ups and downs (excluding the outliers) probably going 3-4% up and down from there, everyone jumped on me that this can't be true. Now once it looks it is actually true suddenly is common knowledge.

And, finally, one last thing. You (and many others) openly admitted that you were at 100%+ TT returns (some of you, you included claim you still are there). We know now MA share is (at least now) 5%, so total returns are 95%. You said it was common knowledge that, before that, MA share was 7%, so total returns were 93%. Now if you and your grinding friends cycling tons and tons of money (and being proud about it) were at 100%+ I was wondering where you think the regular joe's return was so the total ends up on 95% or 93%?!? I see you and your band of merry friends crying over that 95%/96%/97%/98% is terrible and unsustainable for you? But how was less than 90% for the average joe? Sustainable? Hypocrisy much!

Xpl0jd said:

i would really want to know the old numbers, i have a feeling the people who did cycle atleast 100k ped did have higher number before.

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This a game not a job stop cicling so much ped get a job and play and contribute to the game like it should be MA focused on this and all players be happy here and there we hit some decent hof us long the game wins we have game for few more years and maybe a better server becouse ma can afford to pay it

DoA said:

First of all, I have to say that I take everything you or anyone else in your selected 2% group is saying with a grain of salt for the simple reason that it seems that post 2.0 a lot of your friends started to have a lot of problems or opportunities in real life and are quitting and selling out like flies (and, no, obviously, not because the loots are down, like down to 97.29%; your loot still gives well over 100%, at least 'till it sells).

everyone jumped on me that this can't be true. Now once it looks it is actually true suddenly is common knowledge.

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You are free to refeer to my vast ammount of posts about bad returns or the many threads i have selling my gear.
Accutally i putting my money were my mouth is and have been buying and bidding on Highend items after this VU.

The numbers would be more useful if we knew the sample size.

Also for statistics like this I would like to see them filtered against the 95 percentile to help remove spikes and edge cases.



If I understand the implication of the OP, it seems MA has a target of ~98% return on 100k cycled. I personally cycle a little over 10k per week; so a bit over 2mo to cycle 100k. This means I can expect an average TT loss of roughly 1k per month, meaning the game costs around $100/mo. If these number are true, I can certainly live with that, especially since that assumes I'm throwing everything in the TT, which ofc I'm not.

So far I'm at 93% on 30k cycled since 2.0; so hopefully that means I've got some better runs headed my way.

Detritus said:

The numbers would be more useful if we knew the sample size.

Also for statistics like this I would like to see them filtered against the 95 percentile to help remove spikes and edge cases.



If I understand the implication of the OP, it seems MA has a target of ~98% return on 100k cycled. I personally cycle a little over 10k per week; so a bit over 2mo to cycle 100k. This means I can expect an average TT loss of roughly 1k per month, meaning the game costs around $100/mo. If these number are true, I can certainly live with that, especially since that assumes I'm throwing everything in the TT, which ofc I'm not.

So far I'm at 93% on 30k cycled since 2.0; so hopefully that means I've got some better runs headed my way.

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But the problem is to know if it's 100k ped per day, per week, per month, per year to reach. When the counter is reseted ?

That average percent it could mean someone get 60% and other 110%

they should have posted how many got 70% and lower or a percent of the poeple if they dont want to show how many poeple play and 70 to 80 80 to 90 and 90 to 100 and 100 and up that would give the real picture

JD RACING said:

That average percent it could mean someone get 60% and other 110%

they should have posted how many got 70% and lower or a percent of the poeple if they dont want to show how many poeple play and 70 to 80 80 to 90 and 90 to 100 and 100 and up that would give the real picture

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That's why I said it would be nice to see it filtered against the 95 percentile.

Detritus said:

If I understand the implication of the OP, it seems MA has a target of ~98% return on 100k cycled. I personally cycle a little over 10k per week; so a bit over 2mo to cycle 100k. This means I can expect an average TT loss of roughly 1k per month, meaning the game costs around $100/mo. If these number are true, I can certainly live with that, especially since that assumes I'm throwing everything in the TT, which ofc I'm not.

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I think that the only implication we could safely draw is that MA has an about ~5% rake and that the desired average returns across the board are about ~95%.

I don't think the 98% return on 100k cycled have a correlation with the amount of spent PEDs, but more like with the fact that someone cycling so much money probably has some high-end gears so they are more efficient than the average player, hence having better results.

So I don't think you should necessarily base your estimations on said 98%; more like consider that 95% is the average, that 98% or 99% is pretty much the maximum (average), probably 91% or 92% is pretty much the minimum (average), so, depending on your gear and play efficiency (comparable with the rest of the players) try to determine where you should be between these extremes.

So I think:
- the safe way (as in you could have only positive surprises) is to expect 91%-92% return rates
- the realistic way, as long as you are having at least average gear, is to expect ~95% return rates

DoA said:

I think that the only implication we could safely draw is that MA has an about ~5% rake and that the desired average returns across the board are about ~95%.

I don't think the 98% return on 100k cycled have a correlation with the amount of spent PEDs, but more like with the fact that someone cycling so much money probably has some high-end gears so they are more efficient than the average player, hence having better results.

So I don't think you should necessarily base your estimations on said 98%; more like consider that 95% is the average, that 98% or 99% is pretty much the maximum (average), probably 91% or 92% is pretty much the minimum (average), so, depending on your gear and play efficiency (comparable with the rest of the players) try to determine where you should be between these extremes.

So I think:
- the safe way (as in you could have only positive surprises) is to expect 91%-92% return rates
- the realistic way, as long as you are having at least average gear, is to expect ~95% return rates

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Yea maybe so. It would be nice to have some clarification then, from MA.

I took it to imply their algorithm reaches statistical convergence on around 100k cycled; but maybe I'm misinterpreting what they meant. You could certainly be right. It's all down to whether the 100k cycled group has reached 98% due to cycling 100k or due to better gear.


If 95% is the expected return, then that certainly changes a lot, at least for me.

ok if planned return is 95% then lets just figure out how to get 105.25% average MU in hunting

stc44 said:

ok if planned return is 95% then lets just figure out how to get 105.25% average MU in hunting

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yes because hunt to profit 0.25% average its totally worth...

This is the way to do it MA.

I for one am mega happy at whoever has taken control at MA headquarters as the direction seems to have made a very obvious change. Communication is key.

Kudos. Keep it up and we shall soon see EU gaining new heights.

A long way to go but now i am kinda positive about the direction of EU.

Surya said:

yes because hunt to profit 0.25% average its totally worth...

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95 % * 1,0525 = 99,9875 % = you still loose a tiny bit

Surya said:

yes because hunt to profit 0.25% average its totally worth...

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Actually, 105.25% applied to 95% is breaking even (almost, in fact, 99.98%), not profiting 0.25%.

stc44 said:

ok if planned return is 95% then lets just figure out how to get 105.25% average MU in hunting

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Muscle oil is climbing again. Let's see how many things follow and how the trend holds.

How are so many people missing that these figures are averages? Someone could have a return of 75% and another 115%...and those who that happened to might switch places next week when the other hits something substantial. They're not saying every hunter will always get 95%....

Bertha Bot said:

[h=3]Developer Notes #13 - Loot 2.0 Statistics[/h]

• Net return for all hunting activity since VU 15.15: 94.71%
• Net return for hunters cycling at least 100,000 PED since VU 15.15: 97.29%
• Net return for hunters cycling at least 10,000 PED since VU 15.15: 94.79%
• Net return for accounts created in 2017, cycling at least 100 PED since VU 15.15: 94.87%
• Net return for accounts created in 2017: 93.47%

Originally Posted Here

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What I would wonder about is, what is 'NET RETURN'


Does that mean total return vs costs?

or

Does that mean return without the impact of buffs?

Naomi said:

What I would wonder about is, what is 'NET RETURN'


Does that mean total return vs costs?

or

Does that mean return without the impact of buffs?

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I guess it's obvious: Net return = 100% x (sum of TT out)/(sum of TT in) for each category of real players with all their gear/buffs.

GJ

Bertha Bot said:

• Net return for all hunting activity since VU 15.15: 94.71%
• Net return for hunters cycling at least 100,000 PED since VU 15.15: 97.29%
• Net return for hunters cycling at least 10,000 PED since VU 15.15: 94.79%
• Net return for accounts created in 2017, cycling at least 100 PED since VU 15.15: 94.87%
• Net return for accounts created in 2017: 93.47%

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+rep. Respectful initiative, great principles shown in numbers!

What I see when I look into this info major messages are 2:
1) top investors have top abilities to succeed to have best results and they on major are successors
2) welcome message to newcommer and compensation for initial uncertainities. Ignit with friendly care. Wishing respect will grow into respect and will be shared among all of us.

More wide:

1. on top there is respect towards investors. People who cycle at least 100k, I have no doubts, they have:
   • invested much time on planing/modeling investments, much time into collecting information,
   • invested much time on communication/discussions,
   • invested much time/money into skills, gear, buffs,
   • invested into research how to optimize activity,
   • by being most active members on media (I look into cycled PEDs) they advertise media just by their activity or by showing optimism (I see that because of they are investing), majority of top investors
   • advertise media by their success
   • those who invested much and have success probably are reinvesting some part of profit into media entertainment, are supporting artists, designers
   • those who invested much and have success probably share some unique pieces of valuable advice
2. there is
   • initial friendly "welcome to our media" message in form of slightly better returns to support newcomer.
   • some compensation for unique harder and more stressy life on start while lacking any knowledge, experience, friends.

Let me bring also some chains:

1. (depositing money/investing time), active, communication, researching, investing, optimism, planning, modeling, balancing, knowledge, optimizing, success, good mood, friends, jokes, success stories, advice, show, respect, honor, legends, idols, mentors, patience, responsibility, hear, care, share. Reward.
2. new, start, kid, low, terra incogita, fear, stress, fight, killed, revived, adrenaline,brothers and sisters, social, Big brother, mentor, learning, knowledge, building, growing, helped, trust, optimism, scamms, exploiters, failed, risen, experience

I'm sure looking to direction MA now goes there will be more subtle care about who gonna be top successors. Additional rewards. Reinvestments into entertainment, services on non-material to grow fun making of media, advertising and anyhow helping ourselves to have jobs, customers, stable strong market. Give-to-get. Help all us for media to go grow, bring positions to new players. Let's make Entropia Great Again!


Last thing thing here to point out - I see principles, these I support high, and I know that adjustments will be coming all time. More and more subtle to sent us messages how we should help ourselves after abilities given by creators.



Added1=========
All Net values are pointing to mean/average for all players on the group and for sure even if you go cycle 200k, but if you use Dodge modifiers to "optimize" your hunt of Argonauts using 40 eff gun - that wont be the path towards successor and your local net values will be below what MA brought. Contrast I used here, forgive, you know why this comment. No strong guarantees from MA. Just abilities. You are builders of your success. (Skip unique cases; I have had hard fails in past, but I hope all we are learning. Hatred brings hatred, distrust rises distrust. We need to use our strength and come for builder. It's time - MA shown respect. I'm sure it is. Our turn.


Added2=========

As i stated in many many posts b4, MA will do a hell to give more total tt returns then anytimes b4.
MA is a company that does well, but why they should give more in total tt returns?

As it looks atm MA seems like a lil "Robin Hood"...take it from the big Gamers (wich always try to hunt eco as possible) and try to distribute it to the lower and mid lvl gamers.
The average tt return will be always the same.
Personaly for me it looks like they would take finaly some ped's from the super eco hunters (EST) to compare the lower decay of Uber armors, wich i absolutely appreciate.

In my past 12 Years ingame i've try'd everything.... hunting a year or two in Uberarmors without a break ( wich can decay easy up to 400-600 ped a run), hunting a year or two super eco with EST imkII, scopes, Laser BlaBla.......
And whats your guess??? the tt return in one year hasnt changed at all.( It has been always very very close to 98%)
The only Profite i've made past 6-7 years are from Events, not from regular hunting!!!

Also the new Efficencyinfo they provided in Iteminfo is absolutly senseless (nothing has changed) if you know that Entropedia exist.
They want to show you they did something, but they still juggle you something!!!

MA will never ever do something positive for the whole Gamercommunity just because they like you.
They will never change positive the average tt outcomes for all the Players, they just try to make maybe more fair!!!
Don't forgett MA is a Company, and they have to survive and not have to be smart


Thats my Opinion.....

regards Grave

Grave Digger said:

and try to distribute it to the lower and mid lvl gamers.

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My high respect to them. I met many, who are investing into game media we live to give something to others. They are investing their funds, their time, their trust, their friendship, their care, their optimism, good mood to achieve similar on others. Optimism, good mood. My extreme respect to them. Not just for their given but more for their showing the way to open eyes, to look around, to learn what for people reward us with a gain. My gurus, idols, gemstones of community.

Grave Digger said:

a lil "Robin Hood"...

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You for sure right regarding “lil”. I feel, I know, I have learnt still too few how to notice others, how to serve them and I need help from my mentors, teachers I search for on this media. Though EU is RCE media, not everyone comes for profit on material. It’s also wish to ease hard hits we have in real life or to share good mood we had on alt media. Besides win PED, there is wish to have help from others and to have help on very different than run bussiness, to have attention, to have friends, to have smiley, to be respected…(very long list). You for sure right regarding “lil”. I have learnt yet too few though I’m 13+ years on this media. I’m stranger – many of us are strangers, uniques , emitting into media unique specific message and seeking for unique we miss to pair with our unique. To succeed to see wide picture of puzzle of relations. I met young people in this media me to bow them and ask to let me stay and enjoy their way, learn from them. I’m weak, lil, dust, without you, fellow entropians. You are who grant me abilities, rise my head, reward me for given or spank on fault for progress. Without you there’s not much to do. Alternative could be to play games with robots.
You probably right regarding analogies to Robin Hood though as a crafter I prefer to be Standard or Durable [Hood ], offer balance, stability, safe island. Crafters are those who take and give, who wish to serve, to be useful on service of exchange of interests. What are these interests, what are dreams, what are abilities given to us from media providers. I’m not so stuck on looking into pockets of others, be that Gamer (you name) or just gamer, newcommer, young fellow or master of profits. I’m more about who we are as a community, how to master services using available, given tools and abilities. But it’s always minds about service, to try to give fellows what they are dreaming about, expecting, but not to have profit just after I’m smartest eco. That level, eco, is highly respected (see my previous post above – agree with MA it deserves additional rewards). It lets masters to serve community at lowest cost, to supply hides, wools, oils and other materials to crafters and give them ability to add their eco on service and supply also at their best. Masters on service to community. Masters to cooperate on service to community. Profit/gain we have should mean one major thing – we were respectfull and we had reward from community for usefull, needed services.
Sometimes it’s surprisingly rare service of great mood providing. Regarding MA – well they are Gamers, yeah, related to us on spirit, to provide usefull services and have our rewards. No usefull services provided – gamers reject to give reward and leave media. They seek also to master on services how to provide abilities, tools, information, knowledge to us. MA are ignitors of idea, media providers, are businessmen, providers of casino games or video. I take it close to objective reality and see what abilities they provide, what tools and decide to invest into the media time, funds, trusts, dreams or not. Well, I’m in peace with someone playing role of Don Quixote, though.

Grave Digger said:

The average tt return will be always the same.

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Dissagree on this. Looking just to very basics of economics. There are too many factors to influence that. Major thing to mention – more we aggro MA, higher is the cost to provide service, as a result there will be necessity to lower returns for habitants on media.

Grave Digger said:

the new Efficencyinfo they provided in Iteminfo is absolutly senseless (nothing has changed)

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Disagree on it is senseless. Look at least into abilities of traders to fool naïve gamer on selling low quality for high price. There are just wins for us to save time on search for quality. You have my respect, Providers, for direction taken to progress.

Grave Digger said:

MA will never ever do something positive for the whole Gamercommunity

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I wish to know who we are in real, but I have my optimism with me at the moment. We are bright community with huge abilities on Virtual Reality.
There has been ups and downs for me too on relations with MA, with community, but the positive in media provided by MA, abilities, tools attract me to go to revival terminal after each “kill” and start again on learning how to provide Basic, Standard, Durable, Adjusted…. For our progress on relations, on mastering fairness of exchange of valuables, master on balancing interests. It's already positive given by MA - abilities.

I wish you strength, my friend, on searching to revive on optimisms, on believe in human nature isn't about kill. It's about build, I feel and searching non-stop to prove that. My warmest to co-travellers on direction.

Sincerely,
Auk

(forgive for my english - I feel I might picked wrong terms somewhere what not fits to what I wanted to bring. I wish to step onto path of builder. Help me to pick right phrases on english, on market or any other languages)

P.S. my optimism is fueled by your work, fellow entropians, on providing respectful services in game, on helping people on Rookies, on creating various tutorials, setting mentoring programs, compiling information sheets, creating web pages and creating tools to lower headache of dealing with vast amount of information about our abilities. Each of us needs just unique for us part of it.
Keep up good work! Let's show to outer world we are great attractive community, hehe. (Recently more visible)

Auktuma said:

...

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/em precisely

Grave Digger said:

As i stated in many many posts b4, MA will do a hell to give more total tt returns then anytimes b4.
MA is a company that does well, but why they should give more in total tt returns?

As it looks atm MA seems like a lil "Robin Hood"...take it from the big Gamers (wich always try to hunt eco as possible) and try to distribute it to the lower and mid lvl gamers.
The average tt return will be always the same.
Personaly for me it looks like they would take finaly some ped's from the super eco hunters (EST) to compare the lower decay of Uber armors, wich i absolutely appreciate.

In my past 12 Years ingame i've try'd everything.... hunting a year or two in Uberarmors without a break ( wich can decay easy up to 400-600 ped a run), hunting a year or two super eco with EST imkII, scopes, Laser BlaBla.......
And whats your guess??? the tt return in one year hasnt changed at all.( It has been always very very close to 98%)
The only Profite i've made past 6-7 years are from Events, not from regular hunting!!!

Also the new Efficencyinfo they provided in Iteminfo is absolutly senseless (nothing has changed) if you know that Entropedia exist.
They want to show you they did something, but they still juggle you something!!!

MA will never ever do something positive for the whole Gamercommunity just because they like you.
They will never change positive the average tt outcomes for all the Players, they just try to make maybe more fair!!!
Don't forgett MA is a Company, and they have to survive and not have to be smart


Thats my Opinion.....

regards Grave

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Currently I think rather that it is the players of less than 3 years who benefits more, if MA put the stats of the players average pregold I think it would be completely different

You deposit 200 $ you can hold 2 weeks and then from one day to the next you leave in loss until your next deposit

We had already no sweat, no vehicles, no quest but we understood that being a beginner meant less profitability now we gave the beginner limit more than the average middle