Longtooth returns, what did I do wrong?

This is not a whine thread, but I feel like I'm grasping at straws with this game sometimes. Just looking for some retrospective advice.

This was my first migration. I deposited 1k to augment my current bankroll (about 3k). This was the result of my hunt, about 8-9 hours on young-old Longtooth:

4457 in, 3408 out, -1049k (76% return)

I am lvl 49 laser pistol and knife, lvl 29 evade; these are lvl 11-14 mobs, so I assumed within my reach. I was mostly hunting them naked, but about halfway through put on some armor (Viceroy) to see if it would help. It didn't.

Gear:

Adjusted EP-41 + A106
Songkra Corrosive + MT VI
Adj Resto
Imp Ares + Adj Athenic
Thorif helm + X pills


I've never had returns that low for that long of a hunt; if I had only hunted for an hour I wouldn't even bother making this post. Needless to say, I'm not going to participate in the event any further or I'll be broke in 3 days; but I want to know for the future where I went wrong. Is this just the way this event works, you just throw a shitload of money at it and hope to get lucky? Or was my normal gear the wrong choice?

Loot in general has been mostly 75-80% for me since loot 2.0 i've only had one hunt with 90% tt return, no + runs in over 13k ped cycled since loot 2.0. Using similar setup as you. Adj maddox IV + beast, aakas fire dagger + IV, adj resto, imp ares, thorio helm + X pills.

And I use finisher for the last 2 hits.

Although only killed about 1k LT before I realized fuck them, the rest of the peds cycled went to quite a few other mobs.

seems your did everything OK but you missed your "refill me to 90% + Hof(s) so far" which can take quite some turnover when hunting mobs with higher health

I feel your pain but luckily i can't say the same.

So far I did (just) do around 1500 LT, and managed to even make a little profit. That was a free point of stamina for me.
I did have one extraordinary bad run, nearly 100 killed without a even a single multiplier! But that was compensated by some very good runs.
I just used 2a plated gnome, adjusted resto, isis lpb25 (L) with beast amp.

Dollymaus said:

seems your did everything OK but you missed your "refill me to 90% + Hof(s) so far" which can take quite some turnover when hunting mobs with higher health

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If this is the case, then I guess it's just a loss since I have no intention to try and cycle more on these things.

You win, MA.

What you did wrong, well you hunted them

But now serious, a popular mob is always more risk than some uncomon mobs.

Why?

Many hunters shoot this mob, all contribute to that pool (still believer in pool loot), so if some other hunter hits a big one, the pool has to refill befor giving another big one. That happens very fast as many hunters shoot this mob. So next global not that far away, but if you don´t get it again (chance not to get it is high, as many hunters hunt it all the same chance to hit the big glob). If you miss out several times, you end up at 75% TT return or even worse.

On uncomon mob, this is way less risky and you very likely get the globals yourself after you filled the pool enough.

My personal experience:
- better average loot in less crowded areas with non popular mobs (90%+)
- popular mobs with many hunters = HoF or bust (75%- to 200%+), depends on your luck

Sidenote:

Detritus said:

This was my first migration. I deposited 1k to augment my current bankroll (about 3k).

4457 in, 3408 out, -1049k (76% return)

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As I read this you already cycled a part of your loot, so your 76% is not accurate number.

Your number at input is 1,5x what you originally have had to spend.

What was your % result after the inital 3k PED spend ?

Examples:

A:
3k in 90% return = 2700
1.5k in (1200 left in loots) 90% return = 1350 + 1200 left = 2550

2550 = 85% of the original 3k

B:
3k in 80% return = 2400
1.5k in (900 left) 80% return = 1275 + 900 left = 2175

2175 = 72,5% from initial 3k

From examples you see that your return very likely was more around the 80-85% but cycled twice

Well 85% still not that good to be honest.

think its down to the amount of shooters, when your pumping shots into Longtooth or any event mob you are in direct competition with all the others doing the same. someone could have high dps and eco soaking up all your ped.

but on the other hand you could do the same back

Found your problem

Adjusted EP-41

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GoNi said:

What you did wrong, well you hunted them

But now serious, a popular mob is always more risk than some uncomon mobs.

Why?

Many hunters shoot this mob, all contribute to that pool (still believer in pool loot), so if some other hunter hits a big one, the pool has to refill befor giving another big one. That happens very fast as many hunters shoot this mob. So next global not that far away, but if you don´t get it again (chance not to get it is high, as many hunters hunt it all the same chance to hit the big glob). If you miss out several times, you end up at 75% TT return or even worse.

On uncomon mob, this is way less risky and you very likely get the globals yourself after you filled the pool enough.

My personal experience:
- better average loot in less crowded areas with non popular mobs (90%+)
- popular mobs with many hunters = HoF or bust (75%- to 200%+), depends on your luck

Sidenote:



As I read this you already cycled a part of your loot, so your 76% is not accurate number.

Your number at input is 1,5x what you originally have had to spend.

What was your % result after the inital 3k PED spend ?

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Hmm, I guess this makes sense. Lesson learned I suppose. It makes me wonder why anybody bothers with popular mobs, just seems like the risk isn't worth the reward.


I didn't cycle any of my loot, I think you misunderstood. I had a bit over 3k to start (around 3.5k) and deposited 1k to augment that. I basically hunted between knife and pistol until all ammo and ped was gone; hence around 4.5k total input.

For my log, I take the sum of all items and ped before hunt, then all items and ped after hunt, this gives me total profit/loss. I then take the total amount of loot and from that can extrapolate the amount spent, which gives me the return.

Immortal said:

Found your problem

Click to expand...

Care to elaborate?

Detritus said:

Care to elaborate?

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Hunting naked with a low dps low efficiency weapon. Would you do the same with trox?

Using similar gear (aep-41 + imp105, songkra + VI, adj resto + 2350, imp ares, X/candies). Doing 900-1100 ped runs on Olds (900 ped of ammo to break the pistol, then the songkra). No armor (defense cost < 0.6%).

92% return so far, which still means thousands of loss. The outcome of a run totally depends on a chance global, which are extremely rare. For example the run before the last one - not a single global, then 323+206 on the very last 200 shots, turning the potential -250 into +250. And then the next run, no globals and -421 as the result.

I had a similar experience.. 100e lasts for 6h on the longtooth youngs... ridicilous i would say..

I think that on shared mob if hof happen or rare item drop DPS rule with more chance to get it.
Problem is that also opalo warriors have small chance to get it with a lot lower cost.

Immortal said:

Hunting naked with a low dps low efficiency weapon. Would you do the same with trox?

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Can't compare LT with Atrox. Atrox have far higher regen than lt. Lt don't require insane dps.

I wouldn't do atrox with just an isis lpb25 beast, but for lt that's good enough.

My first migration as well, had negative results, but not that bad overall, im happy with skills gained and got myself some wildman's furyes. Overall overturn was about 15k, ended with about 45 ped loss, no complaints there.

However, I think it turned out positive because of the nice 500ish and 350ish PED globals I had the first day, which threw me far into profit and then it was decline from that point onward. As others say, loot seems very volatile,and it is not just on Longtooth.

I used GeoTrek Apis or Leonis Special Edidtion + Mod Fi/Ra/Co Cause, Adj. Nemesis + 5b and Easter eggs.
Mod ek2350 for heal.

My main mistake was i think low hunt budget (around 3k like you), i will fix this next year, also get more skills because dominants hit me every time on my low evader level. For this year im out, but I am happy with results even though i did not profit in the end.

my LT Old results

Offence: 10 179
Defence: 94
Summ: 10 273

Looted: 9 239 + Mu 126

Result: 89.9% tt + 1.3% mu

Killed 1623 Longtooth Old (10 runs)
used Adjusted Maddox + Beast / ArMatrix BP-35 (L) + Beast
half runs with X-X2 pills


Overall for July:
Turnover 16 299
Return 14 758
Markup 229
tt 90.5%

lost about -1400 after mu, stopped to hunt

From History(Migration 2016):
Offence 41 075,25
Defence 450,74
Looted 40 241,22 + mu 379,50
Return 96,91%

Overall for Hunting
turnover 355 563,93
Loot 343 863,89
Mu 8 687,73
Bonus(events) 4 360,83
Return tt 96,71%

before loot 2.0 i was on 98% return

Immortal said:

Hunting naked with a low dps low efficiency weapon. Would you do the same with trox?

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I don't hunt trox, but to answer your question: yes, I would, out of sheer ignorance and because this is my setup.

AFAIK, the effeciency and dps are on par with or better than anything else at my level/profession; but as there's thousands of weapons in this game I'd love to hear what you'd recommend.

Immortal said:

Found your problem

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ADJ EP 41is a SIB wep, I think you missed that, immortal.

@OP: Migration mobs are different to anything else. I am not sure on the influence of other people shooting same mobs, maybe the bigger multipliers are up for grabbers and the medium ones personal? Not sure.

I did 1250 LT (with last 200 or so on Adolescents, because they count in first stages, until it switches to killpoints) - the switch was a "hard-coded" decision of mine, after the first swing down I decided to switch at first swing up. So at first chained globals (+300ish in two mobs), which made positive the running balance, I switched.

I did runs of 800-1000 ammo to see how it changes, at first sight their cycle is around 150 kills, hard to pinpoint (in my small twisted world - cycle meaning number of kills needed to average multipliers, which is then overlaid by your own luck cycle on that mob/period/place/MA knows what).

All in all, I ended with +100 tt on some 3kish turnover (i do the math very precise after each run and just count the running balance, I rarely bother with overall stats) and, say some 50 MU in total.

Equipment used: L1100CDF + RDI Alpha + imp ares + mayhem cane/Neurostim-X

I don't believe you did something wrong in general, save for shooting them. As I said, these are tweaked mobs. That is, population of 0,5 multipliers is higher than on other mobs. That makes up for some potential spectacular loots, but extremely gambly.

Anyhow, any mob over roughly 3 ped/kill is an extreme gamble, with 1.5-3 ped/kill only a moderate gamble.

Very important if other hunters are relevant and nobody can deffinitely answer that.

My 2c

P.S.: if I compare your results with similar activities (crafting lvl2 amps or mining with lvl9 amp, there is really nothing spectacular bad, is just the scale itself given by "cost/click").

Ya'll need more dps...

I'm not going to post my numbers until i've pumped 50k into LT or so just yet... currently a little over 25k, but I'm around 98% TT and I'm definitely less eco than most people on small LT... but I bet I'm using more dps..


also... 5k cycle is dog shit.. keep shooting and get a hof... round out to ~95% and close thread.

Rocket192 said:

Ya'll need more dps...

I'm not going to post my numbers until i've pumped 50k into LT or so just yet... currently a little over 25k, but I'm around 98% TT and I'm definitely less eco than most people on small LT... but I bet I'm using more dps..


also... 5k cycle is dog shit.. keep shooting and get a hof... round out to ~95% and close thread.

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Yea seems to echo what others are saying, that DPS rules highly-active mobs, or maybe in particular event mobs. I guess I learned an expensive lesson.


But no, I'm not going to keep cycling on these things, particularly with what appears to be a flawed setup. I'll go cycle my "dog shit" peds elsewhere.

Not much different results than previous years. Migration mobs were always turbulent.

Rule of thumb. expect swings to possibly be as large as 400-500x cost to kill one mob that you are hunting. That's what I usually assume.

For Longtooth this is something like 1600-2000 peds possible swing up or down

You did nothing wrong. 20k in 17k out. 64% eff, 77 dps.

Forgot to mention: Young-Provider

Adj EP-41 is a decent weapon, that's not a problem. On LT you're basically going to be bleeding money until you hit the big one. Is the sad truth....

With LongTooth it is also the skills people hunt them for, the 3 years i have hunted them has given me some nice evade and dodge skills which has saved me 1000,s ped in defence costs for the rest of the year. Longtooth young has very slow regen on health, 35 dps + is fine but a bit slow going for some hunters. You gain skills very fast and hope to loot a nice UL item or hof, helps to recoup cost to hunt.

If it is possible to profit TT+3000 on these, expect a similar result on the other end.

You did nothing wrong, event mobs are highly volatile as loot is a scarce commodity.