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    Continuation of The Nightbird's Correct Loot Theory

    http://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/fo...ibution-Theory

    This thread is intended to continue discussion of The Nightbird's Loot Distribution Theory which I think most will agree had some interesting and correct observations. However, this theory is probably not valid anymore and may have been adapted or changed with loot 2.0


    So if you want to continue discussion of his theory please feel free to do so.

    If you want to discuss how it may have changed and what the theory may be now again please feel free to do so.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by GeorgeSkywalker View Post
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    http://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/fo...ibution-Theory

    This thread is intended to continue discussion of The Nightbird's Loot Distribution Theory which I think most will agree had some interesting and correct observations. However, this theory is probably not valid anymore and may have been adapted or changed with loot 2.0


    So if you want to continue discussion of his theory please feel free to do so.

    If you want to discuss how it may have changed and what the theory may be now again please feel free to do so.

    Interesting, considering that today during the hunt we hit 2 hofs back to back while having a lot of fire power.

    Pics: (Check ammo count)

    First:


    Second (following mob)
    If the stuff that comes out of my mouth upsets you, just think of all the things I keep to myself.

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    This is what I have based all of my mining theories off of since 2011.

    What I've learned is that it's wholly irrlelvant because multipliers are what matter and there's no way to beat the cool down timer on a finder... the introduction of buffs came far after the cooldown was removed, but I suspect 45% acc indoors and no finder cooldown would be pretty fucking crazy lol.


    In any sense.. a more worthwhile analysis is that of multipliers. I've been unable to conclusively determine how a player hits a multiplier in mining, but I have narrowed it into two categories... resource availability and avatar sine waves.

    1) sine waves dictate the expected 91% TT return and multipliers on high volume (crafting)resources that come unexpectedly push an avatar beyond the standard TT return. This it's a balancing act... high markup resources are typically low volume so your TT will suffer, while high volume resources have garbage markup, but you can get higher tt nearer to 100% by mining highly available and uncapped resources.

    I've probably said too much and I don't have enough data yet, but it's a work in progress. My data does support nightbird's theory for resource claim generation. It's the only mechanism which matches the volatility of mining. Further, it's consistent with my data that shows double and triple dropping reduces TT variance respectively. Single dropping is the most volatile because of this. I would even go as far to say that each type of resource has its own timing as Nightbird suggested.

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    Prowler Count Joe's Avatar
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    where did Nightbird go? I reckon hes Ava is deleted now tho

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    Quote Originally Posted by Count Joe View Post
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    where did Nightbird go? I reckon hes Ava is deleted now tho
    Looks as if he stopped using forum in 2011. Maybe playing quietly or more likely taken a loooong break possibly for forever ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rocket192 View Post
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    This is what I have based all of my mining theories off of since 2011.

    What I've learned is that it's wholly irrlelvant because multipliers are what matter and there's no way to beat the cool down timer on a finder... the introduction of buffs came far after the cooldown was removed, but I suspect 45% acc indoors and no finder cooldown would be pretty fucking crazy lol.


    In any sense.. a more worthwhile analysis is that of multipliers. I've been unable to conclusively determine how a player hits a multiplier in mining, but I have narrowed it into two categories... resource availability and avatar sine waves.

    1) sine waves dictate the expected 91% TT return and multipliers on high volume (crafting)resources that come unexpectedly push an avatar beyond the standard TT return. This it's a balancing act... high markup resources are typically low volume so your TT will suffer, while high volume resources have garbage markup, but you can get higher tt nearer to 100% by mining highly available and uncapped resources.

    I've probably said too much and I don't have enough data yet, but it's a work in progress. My data does support nightbird's theory for resource claim generation. It's the only mechanism which matches the volatility of mining. Further, it's consistent with my data that shows double and triple dropping reduces TT variance respectively. Single dropping is the most volatile because of this. I would even go as far to say that each type of resource has its own timing as Nightbird suggested.
    Have you ever considered that the position of the sine wave may be dependent on player activity ? High amount of spending and trade, the multipliers go up, low spending equals lower than normal loot. Its simply a reaction to players.

    Single dropping yes is interesting as you are cutting your chances of hitting something by 66.66667% You also only cover about 73% of a typical mining square cell with your probe (73% of 33% is 25.9%) Makes perfect sense to me...

    I can then safely assume that resources cover every square m of the planet, and you have a base chance of 33% to find it. The problem is circle squaring...
    We pay for each other's good fortune, Mindark just supplies the platform and siphons off of us to keep the lights on.

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    Prowler Rocket192's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by R4tt3xx View Post
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    Have you ever considered that the position of the sine wave may be dependent on player activity ? High amount of spending and trade, the multipliers go up, low spending equals lower than normal loot. Its simply a reaction to players..
    This statement is correct....

    Mining is less volatile and hofs are more plentiful when more miners are dropping and more crafters are burning resources...

    My hit rate/returns consistently drop off around 11:00pm US EST time... which is ironically when the player volume drastically decreases until EU players wake up a few hours later.

    Loot is always better in EU when more people are playing in a specified profession. At least those are my observations... the best times to play are consistently 17:00 to 01:00 MA.

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    Quote Originally Posted by R4tt3xx View Post
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    Have you ever considered that the position of the sine wave may be dependent on player activity ? High amount of spending and trade, the multipliers go up, low spending equals lower than normal loot. Its simply a reaction to players.
    Ahh, this explains my 1800 ped merry snarg hof after 3 years of near inactivity, not spending a dime.


    Well, I have the feeling that the more I get active and the more I spend, the worse loot becomes.

    Theories theories...

    Have you ever considered that if I rub my budhas belly while he sits in front of my screen affects my loot results?

    Really, it works!

    Btw, I sell this litle buddha figurine for just 50k ped.

    Send me a PM if you want near guaranteed more loot.

  9. #9
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    Are there still timings that still work?

    Reason for me asking is that I feel that I have got pieces of the loot distribution system, and timing could be a missing one..
    We pay for each other's good fortune, Mindark just supplies the platform and siphons off of us to keep the lights on.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rocket192 View Post
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    This statement is correct....

    Mining is less volatile and hofs are more plentiful when more miners are dropping and more crafters are burning resources...

    My hit rate/returns consistently drop off around 11:00pm US EST time... which is ironically when the player volume drastically decreases until EU players wake up a few hours later.

    Loot is always better in EU when more people are playing in a specified profession. At least those are my observations... the best times to play are consistently 17:00 to 01:00 MA.
    +1

    my crafting TT returns follow similar patterns. When I do not need something specific quick, I try to avoid crafting between 4 am and 4pm MA time. I can't remember having a bad run in crafting between 6-9pm MA time. Like never.

    I will rework my sheets from 1jan 2018, will add timestamps and daily circulation instead totals by category. Will be better to follow "bad" times to do anything at all.

    I do feel for people who play MA "offtime" where returns are really bad whatever you do

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