I see now what you mean but I am not sure I agree. If memory serves me MA said average 1600 and I did not get the impression that it was going to be anything but random. As I said I have had enhancers that last many more shots than 1600 and other many less than 1600 but the average may well be 1600 I just don't like the way it is done.
I would like to work on a theory but need a favor.
- Thread starter CozMoDan
- Start date
I see now what you mean but I am not sure I agree. If memory serves me MA said average 1600 and I did not get the impression that it was going to be anything but random. As I said I have had enhancers that last many more shots than 1600 and other many less than 1600 but the average may well be 1600 I just don't like the way it is done.
This plot might also be helpful.
I used 10000 enhancers, and plotted their distribution in break rate assuming a 1/1600 chance to break per use.
If you then add up all the uses and divide by 10000, you get 1585, which is pretty close to 1600. But you can see how the distribution skews towards values below 1600 uses...
*edit better plot lol*
17.3% of the enhancers will break in under 300 uses.
13.8% will break between 300-600 uses.
11.5% will break between 600-900 uses.
9.5% will break between 900-1200 uses
8.3% will break between 1200-1500 uses.
6.9% will break between 1500-1800 uses.
This leaves only 33% or a third of your enhancers will get above 1800 uses.
As an aside, the above represents a geometric distribution.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution
Nice pictures but you have many things as you get older. All or most all mathematicians think if they can devise some formula that will solve anything or predict anything or the answers to everything. It is that type of thinking that nearly caused the a second great depression in the USA and the rest of the world in 2008. Stick with what you know by experience not what you can predict by a set of numbers. There is no shortcut to knowledge and if there was I would grantee it would not be a set of numbers on a piece of paper.
Jhereg
Elite
- Joined
- Dec 13, 2005
- Posts
- 2,663
- Society
- Rangers
- Avatar Name
- Feng Huan SecretAznMan Zho
I'm sorry what?
Atrax
Prowler
- Joined
- Jun 3, 2011
- Posts
- 1,138
- Avatar Name
- Mutant Atrax Stalker
Stone Age FTW!
THAT MATH IS THE DEVIL BEGONE YE HEATHENSSSSS THERES NO MATH IN MY COMPUTER WORLD!!
Stone Age FTW!
THAT MATH IS THE DEVIL BEGONE YE HEATHENSSSSS THERES NO MATH IN MY COMPUTER WORLD!!
Very funny
You too shall learn my son, if only you could see the point. LOL
Thorns Rose
Elite
- Joined
- Nov 10, 2009
- Posts
- 3,716
- Location
- USA
- Society
- Calypso Rescue Team
- Avatar Name
- New York Rose
I was wondering if some would trade me 2 accuracy tier 2 enhancers for 2 accuracy tier 1s ? I keep looking on the AU but the groups are mostly too large like 10+ and I am to cheap to spend that much.
If I have those, you are very welcome to them. Good luck.
If I have those, you are very welcome to them. Good luck.
Thank you very much but I have finished the theory
.Assumption city!!!
Yes, let's do close the thread before you start making more random blanket statements about how mathematicians are just fake solving problems with all that evil math. It cases catastrophes! No, it can't be greed and ignorance! Blame the math. Math isn't knowledge, its just ... something. Let's go back to our severely limited test samples and theories based on coincidence.
You're not working on a theory, you already believe your theory. In your head its a fact.
Evey
Elite
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2006
- Posts
- 4,347
- Society
- Hardcore
- Avatar Name
- Eve Everglades
With 2 enhancers per slot test you are many light years away from even starting to take a shortcut
1k enh or test is bs
I agree with Eli, you're only after proving your (false) assumption. As always....
You misunderstand, I am not saying anything like that at all. I am saying that theories are just that, theories. In order for a theory to become fact it must be able to be proven over and over. Is gravity a theory or fact ? ofc we all know it is a fact and why is that, because it can be proven every day, day in and day out. Something can seem to be a good theory but it is still just a theory until it is repeatable but anyone and then it is a fact. Anyone must be able to apply the same theory and come with the same out come every time then it becomes a fact. That is not the case with enhancers. You can use the same model as above and not be able to get the same outcome every time in real life. Just because someone postulates a theory, no matter how good it looks, until it is proven by any and every one it is just a theory and really means nothing more than a guess. All that we know today it because good men and women came up with theories and proved them time and again and they became facts that we can rely on and that has made everything much better IMO. Thank the heavens with have those people around, the mathematicians, scientists. all of them have help make the world a much better place, but not by using unproven theories.
Just a little BTW, I am basing my assumption on the same thing as anyone else, I guessed
.
bard119
Old Alpha
- Joined
- Jan 21, 2009
- Posts
- 703
- Society
- Callidus
- Avatar Name
- Goatts
You should read the posts this is old hat.