Developer Notes #18 - Volatility Improvements

Already have numbers to compare? Im not even sure its live yet lol (at least it wasnt last night)
 
it is, 2 days ago near successes:
~10% , ~33%, ~90%

now near successes:
~25% , ~50%, ~90%

So it is on, time to make new sheet (again) n see this new system yaay
 
Manufacturing
Overall volatility will be reduced, while the overall success rate will be increased by approximately 5 percentage points. Based on feedback, the range of Near Success outcomes will include larger outcomes than during last month’s test, to ensure that it is possible to recover a wider range of blueprint ingredients when a Near Success happens.

Until now you get 30 enhancers (if you are lucky) on 100 tries and all pirite is gone.
Residue is not an blueprint ingredient in case of enhancers.
There is big difference in MU too.
So we get blueprint ingredients now in case of near success?
 
Until now you get 30 enhancers (if you are lucky) on 100 tries and all pirite is gone.
Residue is not an blueprint ingredient in case of enhancers.
There is big difference in MU too.
So we get blueprint ingredients now in case of near success?

Im not an enhancer crafter but just did 500 clicks on weapon Enhancer I to see what the result would be...will do more clicks on this to get a better picture but here are the findings so far....also to note, i have a low QR BP of it as well, so results could be better on higher QR. Also will only put TT values, MU can change so up to you if it is worth it in the end.

Blueprint: Weapon Damage Enhancer I
Blueprint QR start: 7.1
Blueprint success rate at start: 83.90%
Ingredients:
Empty Enhancer Component - 1*500 (500ped TT)
Nova Fragments - 4*500 (0.02ped TT)
Output Amplifier Component - 1*500 (200ped TT)
Pyrite - 1*500 (300ped TT)
Socket I Component - 1*500 (5ped TT)
Total TT Cost: 1005.02

Return:
Blueprint QR end: 25.1
Blueprint success rate at end: 83.90%

Success Percentage: 39.0%
Ingredients returned:
Empty Enhancer Component - 64 (64ped TT)
Nova Fragments - 708 (0.00708ped TT)
Output Amplifier Component - 123 (49.20ped TT)
Pyrite - 79 (47.40ped TT)
Socket I Component - 149 (14.90ped TT)
Metal Residue - 48517 (485.17ped TT)

Product: 195 Weapon Damage Enhancer I (156ped TT)
BP's: Weapon Economy Enhancer III (L) (0.35ped tt), Medical Tool Enhancer I (0.01ped TT)

Total TT return: 817.03708

Total TT Profit/Loss: -187.98292

Rates:
Success: 195 (39%) - higest 34.39, lowest 2.10
(3 over 10ped or more, 7 between 5.65 & 4.77, 185 between 2.56 & 2.10)
Near Success: 231 (46.2%) - highest 1.96, lowest 0.47
(93 between 1.61 & 1.96, 107 between 1.15 & 0.95, 31 between 0.57 & 0.47)
Fail: 74 (14.8%)
 
its supposed to be 90% return? crap....

hunting 2356 of a mob gave me a 73% return.... armor/fap not included.... 62% eff...

Yeah, they've stated at dev note#14 about 98% return after 50k PED cycled...
I'm at 60k PED cycled and 87,7% return...
If they had a personal loot pool or whatever mechanic in loot 1.0 and deactivated it with loot 2.0/december change, then they should reactivate it... going down for 2-3 months and then have the upswing happening was okay in loot 1.0, but going down for 5 months and still no sign of upswing is no fun D:
 
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Looks like the volatility is really improved :D







Have a nice crafting :thumbup:
 
my big samples was 200 welding wire clicks... at 49.7% success rate.. and 95% return.

obviously small sample. but fun none the less
 
After some further testing (12k clicks) , it's much better =)
 
Im not an enhancer crafter but just did 500 clicks on weapon Enhancer I to see what the result would be...will do more clicks on this to get a better picture but here are the findings so far....also to note, i have a low QR BP of it as well, so results could be better on higher QR. Also will only put TT values, MU can change so up to you if it is worth it in the end.

Blueprint: Weapon Damage Enhancer I
Blueprint QR start: 7.1
Blueprint success rate at start: 83.90%
Ingredients:
Empty Enhancer Component - 1*500 (500ped TT)
Nova Fragments - 4*500 (0.02ped TT)
Output Amplifier Component - 1*500 (200ped TT)
Pyrite - 1*500 (300ped TT)
Socket I Component - 1*500 (5ped TT)
Total TT Cost: 1005.02

Return:
Blueprint QR end: 25.1
Blueprint success rate at end: 83.90%

Success Percentage: 39.0%
Ingredients returned:
Empty Enhancer Component - 64 (64ped TT)
Nova Fragments - 708 (0.00708ped TT)
Output Amplifier Component - 123 (49.20ped TT)
Pyrite - 79 (47.40ped TT)
Socket I Component - 149 (14.90ped TT)
Metal Residue - 48517 (485.17ped TT)

Product: 195 Weapon Damage Enhancer I (156ped TT)
BP's: Weapon Economy Enhancer III (L) (0.35ped tt), Medical Tool Enhancer I (0.01ped TT)

Total TT return: 817.03708

Total TT Profit/Loss: -187.98292

Rates:
Success: 195 (39%) - higest 34.39, lowest 2.10
(3 over 10ped or more, 7 between 5.65 & 4.77, 185 between 2.56 & 2.10)
Near Success: 231 (46.2%) - highest 1.96, lowest 0.47
(93 between 1.61 & 1.96, 107 between 1.15 & 0.95, 31 between 0.57 & 0.47)
Fail: 74 (14.8%)

I cant say if new crafting is really improved jet, also I didn't try it jet too.
Based on past experience you got few enhancers more but still those 485 ped of residue hurt a lot.
Thank you for info.
 
started crafting with about 300 PED, could craft for 3 days (granted, 1 little zinc hof). 100/10 , will craft again :D
 
The residual volatility is... interesting.

bb.jpg


Full quantity, 1000x and 900x multipliers six clicks apart (~26 seconds).

Pity it didn't happen on something bigger. :laugh:
 
The residual volatility is... interesting.

bb.jpg


Full quantity, 1000x and 900x multipliers six clicks apart (~26 seconds).

Pity it didn't happen on something bigger. :laugh:

thanks, you've given me some hope :D
 
Mining volatility for me has just risen, awful tt return every run, average 70% from 1 April and no sign of improvement
 
The residual volatility is... interesting.

bb.jpg


Full quantity, 1000x and 900x multipliers six clicks apart (~26 seconds).

Pity it didn't happen on something bigger. :laugh:


Just curious, multipliers of what value? What is the base loot value?
 
started crafting with about 300 PED, could craft for 3 days (granted, 1 little zinc hof). 100/10 , will craft again :D

nvm that, that was only one single very lucky day... now it's just back to crap returns again.... i've been such an idiot for believing MA improved it....
 
nvm that, that was only one single very lucky day... now it's just back to crap returns again.... i've been such an idiot for believing MA improved it....

They haven't changed returns, all they have done is give a different spread of the returns.
My log shows on average a success % of 43% (increase from previous) resulting in an average of 52% of cost returning as product. Fails are at a stable average of 5% on fully maxed level and QR BP.

This is far above what it was previously. More product means you can break even using MU if you craft the right items. Although you can't go around crafting anything you like as material MU comes into play as well.

EDIT: to also note, i did some small craft runs as well since i know you like to click low amounts...the success % is more volatile ranging from 30% success up to 65% success. This also means the product % return ranged from 36% - 71%.
So the more clicks of the same thing you craft the more stable returns you can expect....similar to hunting where you can hunt 1000 x 1 ped mobs or 10 x 100 ped mobs...the 1 ped will give more stable returns, the 100ped mobs will be all over the board.
 
They haven't changed returns, all they have done is give a different spread of the returns.
My log shows on average a success % of 43% (increase from previous) resulting in an average of 52% of cost returning as product. Fails are at a stable average of 5% on fully maxed level and QR BP.

This is far above what it was previously. More product means you can break even using MU if you craft the right items. Although you can't go around crafting anything you like as material MU comes into play as well.

glad that you're enjoying it, care to buy QR BPs?

Edit: i haven't done the small craft runs yet >.> and if the larger craft runs are already terrible, then i certainly won't do the small ones...
 
glad that you're enjoying it, care to buy QR BPs?

Edit: i haven't done the small craft runs yet >.> and if the larger craft runs are already terrible, then i certainly won't do the small ones...

Well i still wish they would up the success rate slightly more, as there are still many BP's that there is no point in even bothering with. However if you are having such a hard time with crafting, then i suggest you sell those BP's on the AH and cut your losses. There is still a long way for MA to go with crafting, but it has definitely improved.
 
Well i still wish they would up the success rate slightly more, as there are still many BP's that there is no point in even bothering with. However if you are having such a hard time with crafting, then i suggest you sell those BP's on the AH and cut your losses. There is still a long way for MA to go with crafting, but it has definitely improved.

yeah, i was pretty mad and considering selling the stuff indeed....
first 1,5-3k clicks were bad, after that i made the post, then times 100 & 90 multi within 200-300 clicks and even finished with:
d6knqnzv.jpg


still pretty volatile i'd say, but if getting to quite decent return within a day or two it should be okay...
 
yeah, i was pretty mad and considering selling the stuff indeed....
first 1,5-3k clicks were bad, after that i made the post, then times 100 & 90 multi within 200-300 clicks and even finished with:
d6knqnzv.jpg


still pretty volatile i'd say, but if getting to quite decent return within a day or two it should be okay...

That's pretty much the issue, you do that amount of clicks and then complain that everything is bad. Crafting has and most likely always will be based on larger sample sizes than hunting/mining.

So far i have 121K clicks since this thread started and on multiple different things and my sample says that on average I am getting the results i posted just before. Average success of 43%, and average product % of 52%. With click numbers greater than 5K i have noticed a less volatile return and with less 5K there is a greater variance. Clicks under 200 have the highest volality and cannot be accurately estimated for profit/loss.

I have one run that was 3K clicks and i broke 80% return, I have another that was 50 clicks and i broke 277% return. I also have the reverse with one run at 3200 clicks that gave 150% return and one at 75 clicks that gave me 60% return. Using these by themselves does not give any good idea of how crafting is, but over the 121K clicks, I have a better understanding.

Also to note, I am at 97.63% TT return over the full 121K clicks.
 
I have one run that was 3K clicks and i broke 80% return, I have another that was 50 clicks and i broke 277% return. I also have the reverse with one run at 3200 clicks that gave 150% return and one at 75 clicks that gave me 60% return. Using these by themselves does not give any good idea of how crafting is, but over the 121K clicks, I have a better understanding.

imo, 3k clicks only 80% return shouldn't happen, at least not with QR 100 BP + maxed out skill. That is my point btw.
I understand that it can happen, but i do not like it.

That's where crafting before loot 2.0 was better, you did your 1k clicks and as far as i remember it never has been as low as 80% return....
 
imo, 3k clicks only 80% return shouldn't happen, at least not with QR 100 BP + maxed out skill. That is my point btw.
I understand that it can happen, but i do not like it.

That's where crafting before loot 2.0 was better, you did your 1k clicks and as far as i remember it never has been as low as 80% return....

Yes it has, I have had plenty of runs over 1K clicks that had sub 80% TT return before loot 2.0
 
Yes it has, I have had plenty of runs over 1K clicks that had sub 80% TT return before loot 2.0

QR 100 + maxed out skill + full quantity?
i can't remember any sub 80% return runs, i've usually gotten a times 10 & 40 multi during my 1+k click runs and that usually has been enough to get 90+% return...
 
QR 100 + maxed out skill + full quantity?
i can't remember any sub 80% return runs, i've usually gotten a times 10 & 40 multi during my 1+k click runs and that usually has been enough to get 90+% return...

During the 'test' we managed to pull off 69.44% on 1000 clicks on a maxed 100.0 qr blueprint on full quantity (basic processor which is oldschool however).

Since the 'implementation' the range is 81.03% to 139.25% but those are just 12 1k click runs, the rest were smaller.
 
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During the 'test' we managed to pull off 69.44% on 1000 clicks on a maxed 100.0 qr blueprint on full quantity (basic processor which is oldschool however).

Since the 'implementation' the range is 81.03% to 139.25% but those are just 12 1k click runs, the rest were smaller.

I was asking/writing about the time before loot 2.0, basically about loot 1.x.
The test was during loot 2.0.
 
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