Developer Notes #18 - Volatility Improvements

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Based on the data gathered from the volatility test conducted last month and discussed in Developer Notes #16 and #17, our balancing team has decided on a set of new permanent settings that will be implemented over the next several days.

These changes will affect manufacturing and mining activity as follows:

Manufacturing
Overall volatility will be reduced, while the overall success rate will be increased by approximately 5 percentage points. Based on feedback, the range of Near Success outcomes will include larger outcomes than during last month’s test, to ensure that it is possible to recover a wider range of blueprint ingredients when a Near Success happens.

Mining
Overall volatility will be reduced, mainly by implementing a smoother distribution of the various claim sizes. In addition, the value of the smallest possible claims has been increased slightly.


***NOTE*** Please keep in mind that these are macro-level changes to the manufacturing and mining systems and thus the results or experiences for individual avatars and/or for small sample sizes may not be immediately noticeable. Also note that the overall (macro-level) expected return for these systems will be unaffected.


Originally Posted Here
 
Volatility will be reduced... What is the expected longterm output? With hunting it was publicly stated to be 96-98% TT returns. Can we get some hard numbers on mining and crafting?
 
Long term, profit/loss is exactly the same as it was before. TT returns has not changed

Rgds

Ace

yeh but what he means is as long term expected return is a loss, lower the volatility the more you get just tons of small losses all the time rather than swings that can include rather long winning periods
 
Tinkering with the distribution of common successes / claims doesn't change much as those converge in a couple thousand clicks / drops anyway.

What really matters is the distribution of bigger multipliers (20x+).
 
Manufacturing
Overall volatility will be reduced, while the overall success rate will be increased by approximately 5 percentage points. Based on feedback, the range of Near Success outcomes will include larger outcomes than during last month’s test, to ensure that it is possible to recover a wider range of blueprint ingredients when a Near Success happens.

Thanks for the detailed info. Since you've written 5 percentage points, I assume you actually mean that.

However, if the fail rate is to stay the same, then more near successes will have to be very poor, especially if you have a high range still for those higher non-success outcomes. We shall see - anyway, thanks again for the heads up!
 
Thank god, was about time
 
***NOTE*** Please keep in mind that these are macro-level changes to the manufacturing and mining systems and thus the results or experiences for individual avatars and/or for small sample sizes may not be immediately noticeable. Also note that the overall (macro-level) expected return for these systems will be unaffected.

Note for crafters doing 20 clicks...
 
I wonder if there's a way to exempt Explosive Projectiles blueprints from the volatility improvements, as the whole appeal to EP4 is the volatility.
 
Why would you wanna exempt EP rather they nerf it with changes like this, maybe then people actually buy loot and craft items :)
 
I wonder if there's a way to exempt Explosive Projectiles blueprints from the volatility improvements, as the whole appeal to EP4 is the volatility.

Thinking the 5 points is for quantity and not condition.....full condition willl most likely be similar to before but with an extra 0.05% success or something along those lines.
 
Why would you wanna exempt EP rather they nerf it with changes like this, maybe then people actually buy loot and craft items :)

EP4 is an insurance policy against MA pulling the plug on the servers. People click EP4 way more than they used to click ore amps (the previously dominant gambling BPs).
 
great to hear crafting getting some love :D :yay:
 
Deployment date to changes missing

Add deployment date to consider to restart click BPS again ... other wise this is just vogue junk msg ....
 
Add deployment date to consider to restart click BPS again ... other wise this is just vogue junk msg ....

Just multiply MA's predictions by a factor of 10-20. If they say "next few days", multiply 3-5 by 10-20 to equal 30-100 days. If they say "next few months" expect it in the next few years, etc.
We'll likely see the update by June.
 
inb4 alukat complains

I started complaining, after 80k clicks and still having <91% return... now i'm at over 109k clicks and the return ist 89,23% with a tendency to move closer towards 80% return...

could anyone tell please what MAs definition of long term is? humor me...
 
mining was fine how it was :( i didn't mind losing 30k tt in one month :laugh: (no joke, since i always took it back :p )
 
I started complaining, after 80k clicks and still having <91% return... now i'm at over 109k clicks and the return ist 89,23% with a tendency to move closer towards 80% return...

could anyone tell please what MAs definition of long term is? humor me...

90% return on hunting is within MA's expected definition in loot 2.0 so if your getting that crafting then stop complaining.
 
So first test run:
pre-change: 375 clicks without multiplier (times 10 or bigger) - 73,45% return
post-change: 379 clicks without multiplier (times 10 or bigger) - 81,9% return

pre-change: 564 clicks with 2 times 25 multipliers - 82,65% return
post-change 379 click with a single times 13-15 multiplier - 84,72% return

so it got better by quite a bit.

90% return on hunting is within MA's expected definition in loot 2.0 so if your getting that crafting then stop complaining.

funny how you just ignored the whole tendency towards 80% part....
 
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So first test run:
pre-change: 375 clicks without multiplier (times 10 or bigger) - 73,45% return
post-change: 379 clicks without multiplier (times 10 or bigger) - 81,9% return

pre-change: 564 clicks with 2 times 25 multipliers - 82,65% return
post-change 379 click with a single times 13-15 multiplier - 84,72% return

so it got better by quite a bit.



funny how you just ignored the whole tendency towards 80% part....

Thats because no one knows what MA's expectancy for crafting is...80% could be their expectancy...i mentioned the hunting % because i have a support case from MA stating that 90% is within their hunting expectancy.

Also, you say you have close to 80% returns on crafting, yet you haven't provided any proof to this....well except over small numbers...see original post at the top from MA about small numbers.
 
Thats because no one knows what MA's expectancy for crafting is...80% could be their expectancy...i mentioned the hunting % because i have a support case from MA stating that 90% is within their hunting expectancy.

Also, you say you have close to 80% returns on crafting, yet you haven't provided any proof to this....well except over small numbers...see original post at the top from MA about small numbers.

you did not see this post yet? https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/...ith-crafting&p=3641226&viewfull=1#post3641226

That's what the majority of my crafting runs looked like....

btw, where does small sample size end for you? at 200k clicks? at 500k clicks? at 1 million clicks? you should know that the flactuation does even out long before that...
 
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It sure doesn't end at the sample sizes you are doing.

Then tell me, where is it supposed to end...
And care to tell me, what this has to do with the road to the point when it actually jumps to 95% being bad?
 
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90% return on hunting is within MA's expected definition in loot 2.0 so if your getting that crafting then stop complaining.


its supposed to be 90% return? crap....

hunting 2356 of a mob gave me a 73% return.... armor/fap not included.... 62% eff...
 
It may be better overall. Crafting success rates should be better and near success should give back more ingredients. Will have to test and see.
 
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