FYI: The 3 magic number theory

Corwin

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Corwin The Prince
Hi everyone, i decided to share my loot theory.
First of all i want to make a little debrief about how i arrived to it and id like to say its just for hunting.

I recently purchase a land at that freaking cold place and i had chance to talk to many hunters and listening to the stories of the most succesful ones and mixing them with my personal experience i arrived to the following theory.

My theory consist in 3 magic numbers, we can call them 3 different multiplier

1st number : we call it player multiplier (added in loot 2.0)
this is the actual money a player spend, by decay and ammo consumption, while killing monster, it increases while consuming pecs, and decreases proportionally on every spawn trigger.

2nd number : we call it spawn multiplier (was there b4 loot 2.0)
this is actually the mob multiplier, the more mobs gets killed, the more this multiplier increases. Pay attention that each spawn, and not each mob, has its own loot pool, and the so called "trigger mobs" they could either tend spawn randomly in a sort of "placement grid" or could just be the number X mob of that spawn killed. this means that hunter should prefer Land areas with more dnas inside, as long as they have the possibility to trigger more than one pool in a short lass of time, increasing esponentially eventual profits on good runs, and increasing the chance to trigger at same time spawn pool and global pool. also means that hunter should prefer 1dna only areas during events, as long as every mob killed is part of the same pool that everyone is grinding, in the second case, kill till a global, then stop killing for the lass of time u think its required to restore the pool.

3rd number: Global pool, this is a timed global pool, with its own cap and multiplier that is very dinamic and variable (probably setted by mindark according to his avaiability). if u manage to trigger a spawn and at the same time u hit the timed pool (it happens when u loot, not when u kill) ull add a further multiplier to the spawn multiplier u already triggered and this loot will be only shrapnel (the famous shrapnel bonus)

How does 3 numbers fits together? the working is very simple. If u loot the trigger mob, and ur multiplier is higher than spawn multiplier, u get payed the spawn multiplier, and ur own player multiplier decreases, if at same time u hit also the global pool, then u get payed the a further multiplier as shrapnel bonus. If u loot the trigger mob of that spawn, and ur multiplier is lower, nothing appens, and the spawn multiplier goes to next tier.

it could happen that ur multiplier is very high but the spawn ur hunting on is even higher because mobs got triggered by lower multipliers and spawn got to higher tier, either then change spawn, keep hunting trying to trigger another dna if in player owned land, or keep hunting trying to get ur multiplier higher. U can global over a spawn and ur multiplier is still higher of the same spawn mob or of the dna next to it, so u can actually potentially score over 6 globals in short time if ur in a land with 6 dna set up.

In loot 2.0 base mob loot is not calulated anymore over the mob hp, but over your damage per pec. The lower ur damage per pec the higher the base loot of the monster. Global occurr when loot is over a certain amounth according to the spawn u hunting in, its just a graphic thing. if u spend everything calculated(armor decay counts too) 3ped to kill a mob, every loot under 3ped*"ma stated return %" will raise ur multiplier, every loot over 3ped*"ma stated return %" will lower ur multiplier proportionally. Global loot pool will not affect ur multiplier at all, but still to trigger it u gotta trigger the spawn one that lower ur multiplier proportionally to the spawn multiplier but not to the bonus shrapnel.

Conclusions
-better hunt is very big spawns and in player owned land with as many dna as possible.
-better do events in land with only one dna or one dna per type of mobs, as long as u can try to predict the timing of triggers from how many players and globals timing
-better hunt in areas with loads of traffic (more chance of higher spawn tier so more chance to hof)
-if you score big, cycle two or 3 times the score on lower level mobs, even punies, possibly with high mu loot to restore ur lost multiplier, if u keep hunting at high mob ull lose everything and fast. Remember that server restarts only reset spawn multipliers (to avoid ath on low level spawn cuz theyre tier is too high) but it doesn not resets the player multiplier.
-mindark states that the average return is over 90%, true, but with the only combo of the first 2 multiplier.
-keep ur dps as high as possible and use loot pills or loot pets or ring, the higher the dps the faster the kill, the faster the kill the more chance of timing the bonus pool.
-do not play on shared mob or in team with people that usually hunt less than you do or u dont know, ull be sharing ur higher multiplier with the lower of others.
-dont tt loot, noone knows if tt terminal affects somehow or not the player multiplier, but we do know for sure that auction doesnt, plus we also get some mu over it.
 
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Interesting read. Thanks for posting!
 
Fair enough.
But now I need to know HOW I hit the player & global multiplier at once! ;)
 
Hmm, your 'theory' seems very self-serving.

That's in addition to the usual certainty with which theorists 'know the unknowns' that make every loot theory both entertaining and useless. Still, it's an interesting read.

Good luck with you new LA.

Peace, Miles
 
I recently purchase a land at that freaking cold place..... i arrived to the following theory.

Conclusions
-better hunt is very big spawns and in player owned land with as many dna as possible.
-keep ur dps as high as possible and use loot pills or loot pets or ring, the higher the dps the faster the kill, the faster the kill the more chance of timing the bonus pool.

Yes.. makes perfect sense. ;)
 
Hmm, your 'theory' seems very self-serving.

That's in addition to the usual certainty with which theorists 'know the unknowns' that make every loot theory both entertaining and useless. Still, it's an interesting read.

Good luck with you new LA.

Peace, Miles

indeed self serving dude ^^, no knowledge comes for free!
 
If you want to make sure that I will never spend one pec on your land that is the way to go :wtg:
 
My theory:

1. there is absolutly noting into a mob. It also don't spawn any mob with loot value triggers inside. Everything just hapen in the moment you klick on loot button. Everything get calculated into the loot server. Depending on a lot different UNKNOW parameters and other values and algorythm.

2. Ma change this values, parameters and also the algorythm from time to time.

3. None of us players and even most employes of MA have no clue how this all is working, about it need to be secret and hidden.

4. All this is made, so we don't see any pattern, also if we think we find one. (chaos theory and some clever RND)
 
I still think it's just RNG with eventually a back-up-system, which prevents constant >100% return as well as dropping to low in return and to ensure that players hit the desired return at some point.
 
I still think it's just RNG with eventually a back-up-system, which prevents constant >100% return as well as dropping to low in return and to ensure that players hit the desired return at some point.

No, only RND would ruin MA :) I did a lot test with RND generator and loot, if i need a loot system on my own games. It need to have more, as only RND, or the risk is to high, that they loos money.
 
My theory:

1. there is absolutly noting into a mob. It also don't spawn any mob with loot value triggers inside. Everything just hapen in the moment you klick on loot button. Everything get calculated into the loot server. Depending on a lot different UNKNOW parameters and other values and algorythm.

2. Ma change this values, parameters and also the algorythm from time to time.

3. None of us players and even most employes of MA have no clue how this all is working, about it need to be secret and hidden.

4. All this is made, so we don't see any pattern, also if we think we find one. (chaos theory and some clever RND)

I dunno if its inside the mob the trigger or its just like the number X mob looted of that spawn/dna, for sure i agree with you is not the kill but the loot, that is why u want loot pill to loot upon kill.

Ofc we dont know, its just a theory :laugh:

Wat i also i do think is that the algorythm, wich can be always changed by ma, is actually much more simple than we think. We tend to create castle to arrive to the paranoy that everything we do can affect it (even the words used in chat), but we must think more like if we own that algorytm, how we would like it to be, simple and efficent, thats it.

I still think it's just RNG with eventually a back-up-system, which prevents constant >100% return as well as dropping to low in return and to ensure that players hit the desired return at some point.
Well, i believe there is no game with all losers, some winners have to be, that is why my theory is that the player multiplier combined with the spawn multiplier already prevents u to retrieve over 100%, but fix you in a average return of 92-95% on long term, because if u lose, ur multiplier gets up, if you win, ur multiplier gets lower.
This system also prevent ofc a spawn to be always dry, another player with an higher multiplier making that loot whould maybe have triggered wat for u was a bad loot.

If you want to make sure that I will never spend one pec on your land that is the way to go :wtg:
no, i want you to spend all your and all your mums pecs in my land. :woot:
 
It is just RNG...you're all welcome.


Edit: except sometimes MA does pull a lever for certain items/events to drop lol.
 
...
Wat i also i do think is that the algorythm, wich can be always changed by ma, is actually much more simple than we think. We tend to create castle to arrive to the paranoy that everything we do can affect it (even the words used in chat), but we must think more like if we own that algorytm, how we would like it to be, simple and efficent, thats it.
...

On a quick read, it reads like a commercial for sure. I'm not sure if you actually wanted discussion lol.

I honestly read it a few times now. I'm not sure if I've made sense of it, but I know a spot where individual mobs seem to be "spawns" and always come back in the same spot. I might try and figure out this build up you're talking about, or if I can see something like it. Just for my own laughs.

Overall you could almost pack this within my own,simpler IMO, loot theory and explain some of the difference as simply people with different backgrounds correlating differently. I don't think that there's a player modifier, so much as many people want it. However in some scenarios it sure seems like there is one.

Mainly I'm posting because thinking about these stacking multipliers like this has me wondering:

What if the max multiplier on a mob is the one that breaks the "global threshold" and that triggers another multiplier check for the "global event"? This could invoke a sort of tipping bucket check on the global/loot pool as well and would keep 95% + of loot events a little bit lighter on the client and the server.

I'm not honestly sure if that affects anything I could do in game, or if it could be black-box tested though. Swamp gas, as they say.

I think it's important to take the things MA says about the game literally. Bonus loot doesn't take from the regular loot pool, and there isn't any correlation that I can see (yet) between the frequency or size of bonus loots and the multis hit on the target mob. Occam's razor says they throw it in there, roll for a handout on a kill, and roll for a multi or level of some kind on the payout.

I'm beginning to think that pay into that pool may affect pay out. 'Testing' with non-SIB and level 40 doesn't hurt this theory. Something in loot 2.0 is watching out for you when tt in and tt out is not making average.

Anyways if you're into these sort of things there's some food for thought here. It's less misleading than some other things I've read on the topic. IMO of course, since that's all any of us have on this matter ;)
 
Well, i believe there is no game with all losers, some winners have to be, that is why my theory is that the player multiplier combined with the spawn multiplier already prevents u to retrieve over 100%, but fix you in a average return of 92-95% on long term, because if u lose, ur multiplier gets up, if you win, ur multiplier gets lower.

yeah, that's what i had in mind with the back-up system, except not bound to spawn or so.

What speaks for RNG (a few examples):
it's possible to maintain 95% return even only with small multipliers.
bad pluma hunt (about 80 pec per kill) - no multis, switched to mining, dinged a 300 ped hof.
crafted small craft (about 40 pec per click) - no multis, switched to mining, dinged a global or even hof.
happened numerous times.

what speaks for back-up system in place (a few examples):
i've never managed to jump above 96% return overall since loot 2.0.
Had about 400 ped loss on kong and then went to vixen and got a couple globals.
had a couple bad days on demon hackers (3,6ped per kill), then went to plumas and got 287 ped hof....

so, by my observation i'd say they've got a dual system (RNG + "back-up") in place ^^
 
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On a quick read, it reads like a commercial for sure. I'm not sure if you actually wanted discussion lol.
well, i didnt mean to exploit it as a commercial spot, i can name you many lands that have 6dna and have better mobs than mine lol, but ofc i obviously took mine as example, but there is roger wilco one wich is full too, and many others.

This said, i dont mind discussion, the purpose was to share my theory, wich i think goes as near as possible to reality, this said i didnt mean no offence to anybody.

About the pool each dna, i found it out while hunting on other player owned lands wich have 2 different dnas, of wich one is more hunted than the other, i could just see that the dna more hunted had the most % of globals, but i also noticed the huge lass of time the last global and the consecutive hof with only one dna of that monster, explaining it with a bigger tier waiting to be triggered by a high player multiplier. This ofc goes against the theory that there is a global pool per mob, wich i think it just feels wrong.

This said, i also think that is in best interest of ma want land with full dna, full dna means more fertilizer spent, so obviously lands with more dnas gives better overall return to hunters, i explained that with the 6 different loot pools, but anyone can give his own explaination, they all just theories, lets not get too hot for it aight?

Plus every land owner can work actively to fix theyre dna at 6 full one if they want, i mean im not limiting anybody, im just suggesting they put a little more effort in working theyre land, as long as if u go around only 1 land over 5 is worked propelly.

Mainly I'm posting because thinking about these stacking multipliers like this has me wondering:

What if the max multiplier on a mob is the one that breaks the "global threshold" and that triggers another multiplier check for the "global event"? This could invoke a sort of tipping bucket check on the global/loot pool as well and would keep 95% + of loot events a little bit lighter on the client and the server.
im considering when u say globals threshold u mean the amounth to get the swirl? that is just graphic stuff.
Im talking about the base loot, wich is variable first according to ur dmg/pec and eventual accessory decay. let me make an example(this time lets make it on roger wilco lands to change)
Code:
Im killing atrox young in roger wilco land and im killing them using a isis LC 35 CDF with mayhem amp alpha and a Zombie (L) 
My cost to kill a mob is 3ped each mob.
lets say that my mindark stated return is 95%
lets pretend bonus pool do not exist and i dont have any bonus shrapnel in my whole hunt.

so while killing them i have a mob loot that goes between a minimun of 3-3*95%=0.15ped and 3+3*95%=5.85ped with the 3*95%=2.85ped as breakeven point considered by sistem
so everytime my loot is under the breakeven point, my multiplier raises, everytime my loot is over the breakeven point, my multiplier decreases. (ofc we will find more loot under the breakeven than over it)

i kill 100 atrox spend 300 ped and get back loot for 250ped. My multiplier is raised of 285-250=35ped

now the next atrox i kill trigger the spawn pool of a certain tier with a multiplier factor of 10 so i get that loot* 10 times. now the loot was 2.20ped and at multiplier 10 i get 22 ped. that spawn trigger will decrease my multiplier of 22-2.20=19.8ped ( i did hit the spawn multiplier but i didnt see any swirl cuz loot still under 50ped)
in this case my multiplier is 35 per so 35>19.8 and i get payed 22ped

my multiplier is now 35-19.8=15.2 ped

i kill another atrox next to this that trigger another pool dna with tier with same 10 multiplier factor but as long as my multiplier is 15.2<19.8 this time i receive 2.2ped only and the dna in question goes to the next tier, meaning the next trigger mob of that dna will have 11 multiplier instead of 10 and to trigger it i need to have a multiplier high enought to cover it


I think it's important to take the things MA says about the game literally. Bonus loot doesn't take from the regular loot pool, and there isn't any correlation that I can see (yet) between the frequency or size of bonus loots and the multis hit on the target mob. Occam's razor says they throw it in there, roll for a handout on a kill, and roll for a multi or level of some kind on the payout.

Exactly:

According to me, u can trigger the global pool at any time, getting the bonus shrapnel, and this bonus have a various amount, so i think the global pool multiplier vary each time, and yea, mindark stated that there is no correlation between the normal loot and the bonus shrapnel, that is why i called it a 3rd multiplier, and that is why we want to kill mobs afap to time it.

now a fast example timing the bonus pool
Code:
i kill an atrox that have the minimun loot it can 0.15ped but at same time i time a 20 multiplier from the bonus pool. i receive the 0.15 loot and i receive a bonus shrapnel also of 3ped. my multiplier still increases even if i got a amount of loot>breakeven.

another example:

i kill a trigger mob with base loot of 2.20ped and i trigger the spawn multiplier of 10 but at same time when i loot i trigger also the global pool with a 20 multiplier. if my player multiplier is over 19.8ped i will receive 22*20=440ped and my multiplier will decrease by 19.8ped only, if my player multiplier is under 19.8ped i will receive 2.20*20=44ped and my multiplier will increase.

Anyways if you're into these sort of things there's some food for thought here. It's less misleading than some other things I've read on the topic. IMO of course, since that's all any of us have on this matter ;)
its just a theory ofc, but my theory state u can actually win, with the risk of a minimun loss. I hope im right but only time will tell, if it was all a 95% return, noone will keep play to just lose. but u play to get even or a very small profit if u are good enought to study mechanics. But at same time u are able to score an ath that will destroy ur multiplier ofc but maybe not that much so u dont need necessary to have lost 20kdollars to receive 200kped ath.
 
after i reread my posts i just found out my english is shit, so im probably misleading you all cuz u just not understanding me
lol
:scratch2:
 
...so, by my observation i'd say they've got a dual system (RNG + "back-up") in place ^^

You know i very nearly contradict myself in that last post, on this specific point. This is why I like these discussions really. Sometimes it helps you to get at something from a different direction.

For a long time I've held to the notion that the system isn't balancing between activities, that mining, hunting, and crafting are separate but similar systems. Of course they all feed a certain percentage of turnover into a shared loot pool.

I've had experiences that seem both ways, there's days when whatever activity I switch to, one of the other three "blows up". Then sometimes what you describe, where just moving/changing seems to set things off.

But overall doing a bit of everything, I'm not getting wrecked nearly as badly as I was during the downfall of loot 1.0. TBH just looking at a rolling 30 days I'm significantly TT+ again. As a percentage ;)

But that's losing my butt hunting, breaking near even mining, and some very good luck on the crafting machine. Maybe the whole thing really is that much more personal now.

well, i didnt mean to exploit it as a commercial spot, i can name you many lands that have 6dna and have better mobs than mine lol, but ofc i obviously took mine as example, but there is roger wilco one wich is full too, and many others.

** ton of math and supporting info **

Ehh, to be honest man that's a hell of a lot of thought put into this if you just wanted some confusing advertising.

I'm reading it and taking it in. Thanks for taking the time, and giving very specific examples.

after i reread my posts i just found out my english is shit, so im probably misleading you all cuz u just not understanding me
lol
:scratch2:

LOL I have the same problem for different reasons. ;)
 
i disagree that it's fully random, because then you'd see random multiplier sizes, which we don't

the loot content itself is random (and capped), and one can argue that it's a probability too (i.e. RND(1)<0.01 = 1% probability)

regarding multipliers (TT return) i'm pretty sure it's a predefined rowset of multipliers, like it's industry standard in most slotmachines worldwide.

why? because probabilities based on random numbers can't be calculated in advance, so even you as the company don't know if you're gonna win or lose in the end. RND is risky, proper maths isn't. ;)

that "proper maths" and the feeling that it's amongst the very few things that simply work since i joined PE, made me guess it's a foreign blackbox that got licensed by MA and can only be tweaked by them a little bit.

i fully understand, that such a critical thing like the EU loot engine would be preferrably developed and delivered by experts. somehow i'd be very proud of mindark if they really developed it themselves. :silly2:
 
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why? because probabilities based on random numbers can't be calculated in advance, so even you as the company don't know if you're gonna win or lose in the end. RND is risky, proper maths isn't. ;)

You mean companies are now exempt of the law of large numbers? When did they get THAT passed? :laugh:
 
You mean companies are now exempt of the law of large numbers? When did they get THAT passed? :laugh:

nope i mean computers don't even know randomness without checking their RTC for its uptime, and also that no company on earth would use that when it's about money.

just my :twocents:, ofc every company is free to do as they think.
 
what is RNG?

Random Number Generator, a less technical term.

RNG with caps and modifiers, it's mostly all I see.

It's how they put the caps and modifiers together that makes the magic, though.

Any significantly advanced technology is likely to be perceived as Lootius. (AKA RNG Jesus).
 
Random Number Generator, a less technical term.

RNG with caps and modifiers, it's mostly all I see.

It's how they put the caps and modifiers together that makes the magic, though.

Any significantly advanced technology is likely to be perceived as Lootius. (AKA RNG Jesus).

rng have nothing to do with my theory, at most it can have a function in the type of loot, but as long as there are loot skill level either it doesnt have any function either there is a minimun required level for that item and rest is rng
 
My theory:

1. there is absolutly noting into a mob. It also don't spawn any mob with loot value triggers inside. Everything just hapen in the moment you klick on loot button. Everything get calculated into the loot server. Depending on a lot different UNKNOW parameters and other values and algorythm.

2. Ma change this values, parameters and also the algorythm from time to time.

3. None of us players and even most employes of MA have no clue how this all is working, about it need to be secret and hidden.

4. All this is made, so we don't see any pattern, also if we think we find one. (chaos theory and some clever RND)

There is no mob.....
 
rng have nothing to do with my theory, at most it can have a function in the type of loot, but as long as there are loot skill level either it doesnt have any function either there is a minimun required level for that item and rest is rng


There's something selecting a per 'loot event' modifier. The slot machine analogy would refer to them as "pay lines" I think ;)

.35, .7, 1.05, 1.5, 3., 7.5 etc.... (just some made up numbers there)

TBF it may be a collection of parameters or it may actually be a RND function call on a list of pre-determined values. It could land on these frequent brackets due to the way the modifiers are set up, or base values like these may be a straight selection that is then modified for TT and matching to the loot table.

IMO once you are bracketed, then modifiers will apply.

As long as that's happening it creates the overall impression of an RNG, even if it's not "Truly Random" in any mathematical or technical sense. This effectively makes the entire system "pseudo-random". And keeps us guessing at "the next one" :)

I keep having accidental fun but I'm going to try and camp a single mob spawn still.
 
Don't get caught up in theories.

As a programmer I can pretty much guarantee that all the complex theories that people dream up are far off the mark. When you are dealing with systems that have many concurrent users you don't create a loot system that is complex and can be resource intensive.

The system works on a random number generator. That's the biggest part. This is how it ensures TT returm is stable for MA. Since they openly states that returns even out as you do more clicks it is rather obvious (for programmers)why this is.

If the chance to get 10,000X is 70,000-1 then this wouldn't be included when they mention return rates for 10,000 clicks at 94%. When they then mention the return rate for 100,000 clicks is 97% this is because the larger multipliers are contained which raise the TT% returned.

Then there will be pools not much different to the progressive jackpots on fruit machines. Hit the tear and claim all or part of a pool.

It really isn't as complex as people make it out to be.

Keep it simple stupid. (Kiss).
 
As a programmer I can pretty much guarantee that all the complex theories that people dream up are far off the mark. When you are dealing with systems that have many concurrent users you don't create a loot system that is complex and can be resource intensive.

The system works on a random number generator. That's the biggest part. This is how it ensures TT returm is stable for MA. Since they openly states that returns even out as you do more clicks it is rather obvious (for programmers)why this is.

If the chance to get 10,000X is 70,000-1 then this wouldn't be included when they mention return rates for 10,000 clicks at 94%. When they then mention the return rate for 100,000 clicks is 97% this is because the larger multipliers are contained which raise the TT% returned.

Then there will be pools not much different to the progressive jackpots on fruit machines. Hit the tear and claim all or part of a pool.

It really isn't as complex as people make it out to be.

Keep it simple stupid. (Kiss).
how to make RNG and stable tt return fit in same phrase.
if you looking for jackpots go to play at casino, in here one thing is sure... ur not gambling.
 
I think you miss understood me. No malice intended

how to make RNG and stable tt return fit in same phrase.
if you looking for jackpots go to play at casino, in here one thing is sure... ur not gambling.

Well if you drop bombs u are gambling. It's very similar to fixed odds betting terminals. They pay on average 94% back. (The more plays you do)
I think you have a miss conception as to how random generators work if you think this is not gambling. Any random number would be checked against some sort of pay table which is what creates the stable returns due to the percentage of winning and losing numbers over time.

I've spent many years here mining. Dropped many bombs.
8 glorious towers.
May the hof be with you.
 
ok as usual everyone have they own theory
 
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