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  1. #1

    Loot Algorithm ACTUALLY solved (RIP)

    Hey guys, I would like to share something with you, before I do, I'd like to make a few things clear.

    #1 This is not a theory. This is not speculation. Every detail I mention here can easily be reproduced and verified.

    #2 I'ma copy this to EU Reddit and everywhere else eventually, if this post/my PCF account gets banned/deleted I will redouble efforts to spread this information across every other information outlet possible. People deserve to know hidden mechanics and where their money is going.

    #3 this is my first and last post on PCF. I can care less honestly if I get banned from EU for this. I’ve already quit the game after a few years on and off playing, I just thought I should leave this information to the community because I ofc understand what a sore issue this is for all players.

    I should also make it clear that I only discovered this because when I last came back, I did so out of curiosity, so that I could test odds and other mechanics. I am an aspiring indie developer and I just wanted to understand once and for all how EU mechanics work for an RCE/MMORPG.


    Not long after having been back, bouncing around just messing with stuff, an old friend told me I should check out RT/Booty Raid (or Crib Raid, but only L1-2 for each otherwise no “dice” appear in instance), because there was some kind of “trick” to manipulate loot in this instance. Naturally, this intrigued me, and I moved to RT for a while to investigate this. The “supposed” trick goes as follows,

    #1 Use full TT lockpick to enter BR/CR L1-2

    #2 When you get to halfway point, roll dice inside room until you have got both a “snake eyes” and a “lucky 7”

    #3 Once you roll snake eyes it causes mobs from the 1st half of instance to reset, go clear them, finish the instance, and more often then not, supposedly, “you will get better loot”

    What became clear to me almost right away is that this in itself really does nothing. Yes, you get higher TT value return but ofc, usually a higher TT loss % also, very typical outcome just different mechanics.
    But I couldn’t shake this weird feeling I had about this room and this mechanic. As far as I know, this is the only player initiated RNG in all of EU that directly affects your loot outcome, so despite losing tons of ped, I decided to stay and investigate.


    After like 50 + attempts (I’m not joking) I was starting to think I must have been mistaken. I tried just about every possible manipulation I could think of and recorded all results, and nothing changed in terms of return. I tested high DPP (overkill still translates to higher instance score) low DPP, I even decided to see if I could roll lucky 7’s before I got a snake eyes, in effort to see if lucky 7 by itself altered loot outcome (it did not). The ONLY thing that affects loot outcome is the snake eyes/reset mechanic, after which, I started to eventually realize this was actually quite worse in terms of average return.

    I finally got the random idea (I was a man on a mission here) to just keep rolling the dice themselves and see if I noticed anything odd about them. This my friends is where it gets juicy.


    I rolled BR dice over one thousand times in one instance (again, not joking) and simply recorded the results. I was startled right away when I started to look back over my data because I immediately noticed these dice are rigged (big shocker right?) and not just rigged, but rigged in an interesting way. Essentially what this RNG shows is that no matter how many times you roll, the outcome is basically always going be the same. You will always receive the same number of 1, 2, snake eyes and lucky 7’s no matter what you do. There is no “randomness” at all to it really, only a little bit of pseudo randomness. This also shocked me because this proves that a rigged RNG is determining your loot outcome (again HUGE shocker, right? This is Mind Ark we are talking about here ROFL) but there is much more to this and it gets worse.


    I am not sure if the programmer in BR intentionally left those seed values exposed (0-7) or just did not think anyone would ever notice, but obviously, I did. Now that I understood roughly what is going on behind the scenes in return generation, I needed to understand exactly how this translated and reflected in every single “turn” kill, click etc. This was extremely difficult at first (more so for crafting/mining) but since I now had the “key” I could start to translate my return sequence. To test this simply go out hunting, average your cost per kill, then compare that to your % of return on a kill by kill basis. You are going to see this as follows,

    0 (snake eyes) = lowest return (this was at one time your “no” loot, now is your lowest % return)
    1 = 2nd lowest return
    2 = 3rd lowest return
    3 = 4th lowest
    4 = 5th lowest
    5 = 6th lowest
    6 = Cost per kill back, break even
    7 = TT profit (mini’s and yes, swirl, hof etc)

    If you you look at your returns and this RNG you can eventually see “lucky 7” actually comes roughly every 7 “turns”, usually in the form of a small mini (can even be just + 0.02) and can go for a high of 22 turns before this sequence repeats itself, repeatedly. Like I said don’t take my word for it go look for yourself. On average above ground mining, same thing. Usually a “find” every 7 turns. Crafting no condition, again, usually a small mini every 7 turns, before snake eyes eventually follows and return sequence repeats itself. What is even crazier is that if you switch activities, or even switch to say a different mob, you can see that your return sequence will literally follow you down to 10ths of percentages in semi-predictable fashion.

    Before you get to excited you need to understand that the algorithm is designed so that when you achieve your minis, swirls, hofs and so on, it basically never equals what it cost to achieve it, aka TT profit is essentially impossible, this is most often reflected in Ubers forcing swirls/hofs but still losing. You can also obviously see you are losing almost all the time. In the rarest of cases I have seen where “true” TT profit has occurred, it is obvious it only has because the system has marked you for extraction or you have already lost this amount once, and if you continue to play, you will lose it, guaranteed. I had started to compare this fixed algorithm to MU returns, “efficiency” and other things, but frankly, was so disgusted I felt I had already had enough (and testing isn’t cheap)


    Of course, you’re going to say ok well we have always known its fixed to some extent and you should only be focusing mu loot anyway to get the 95% TT return + MU profit. Ok so “cycle” 10k USD, to lose 500$ TT, then receive 95% fixed garbage no mu loot? Then wait a year or 2 to sell it all to the (500-1k) total players left in EU? Please do not make me laugh. This concept may have been ok in the beginning if this rigging did not apply to actual MU return, which it (very clearly) does, the economy is simply not there. There is simply no reason for this unbelievable rigging system.


    I experimented with a few other things that may or may not confuse providers tracking system (I'm not going to outline that here), but really, if you got to use exploits to even survive in a game, you gotta know its broken as f***. I mean EU literally still even operating on an obsolete game engine. Ultimately one of my main missions in this was to uncover the true odds of return in EU, and honestly, try to understand how/why they are not forced by law to disclose odds of success, (here in the USA all online casinos are forced by law to reveal odds) but what I discovered was obvious.

    In order to be forced to do such a thing, that would mean that you actually have to have a chance of winning/profit my friends. Without true swirl/hof/ath/mu consistent profit in professions, what do you have in EU? Lol, literally nothing. Not even a small reason I can think of as to why you would be there if not profiting. No story. No pvp (yes, I said no pvp, 0 incentive lol) no…. nothing.

    I hope one day a company can take this concept and make it into something truly great because I still believe it is the future of gaming, and I would support it with all my heart and funds.
    That’s it for me. If you have any other questions feel free to DM jaxxone#2130 @discord. Again I left EU some time ago but decided to still share this, only because this is a community I have come to love and respect over the years.

    Until next time space cowboys.

  2. #2
    Jan 2019
    Shadowfire Hottygurl Of The Phoenix
    You are saying things that like...the entire community has known since 2003 dude....

    I even had a society called 'there is no random'. We've done lots of research as a group.

    I might also add Mindark is doing a lot lately, watch and see what they do. Things just might change.

    However let's discuss the obvious...they take a certain % of your loot. Of course the system is rigged, it's an economy in which some have fun, others pay, and the money shuffles around just like the real world. No worries there. can of course take what you're mentioning and match it up to markup and make out the best. That what this game is.
    Congrats on your first steps. You are supposed to not focus on TT return which is what everyone seems stupidly focused on. You are supposed to hunt things you haven't even remotely come close to understanding in order to maximize your MU.

    I've made a lot of progress using markup, perhaps it seems your explorations and data gathering were very limited. Stop stressing so many small factors and screaming scam and you will instead see the actual universe how it is.
    And once again don't do what you can't afford

    Your real life skill and ability to find markup will easily lead you to profit if you know what you are doing with experience versus a little bit of testing and ranting on a forum. Your ingame skill raise your TT return meaning your overall effective markup to stay alive is less, on the top end it's about 1-2%, and there are plenty of mobs around the game that will deliver multiples of this. There was a lot of anger I had, and then I explored and learned to shut up real quick as have most people in the game that actually play it.

    Here's an example, if you cycle 100,000 peds, and have a loss of 2%, that's only 2000 peds...
    If you cycle 100,000 and fail to find 2000 peds of markup you're clearly doing things incorrectly in your research.
    However playing super stupid and getting 13% loss isn't sustainable no matter what you do.

    Odds of return? 90-99% about. Done. Max out your skills and do a specific set of actions? 99%. Fail? 90-92%.

    Also let's check your ego at the door. Just because you don't enjoy something doesn't mean others don't. Stop being so selfish and nieve. Everyone in this world doesn't fit into what you want to project them as and paint them as. Everything isn't how you think you have it figured out.
    Perhaps see a doc for some meds.|

    Many of us are here for people, community, interaction. It's a virtual universe, you can't explain life and its purpose. We are here because we enjoy it. You aren't because you can't take it.

    I might also suggest there are deep seated flaws in what you are trying to say is the answer...your discord is fake...and tbh it just seems like you're a child trying to damage everyone else's toy because you hurt yourself with it.

    Also if you played you'd notice there's a hell of a lot more people flooding into this game than before, and things are much healthier than previous. GG
    Last edited by Psynergy; 02-12-2019 at 03:59. Reason: Was maths better than his at least!

  3. #3
    Alpha Legends's Avatar
    Dec 2006
    Gender | Ingame
    Male | Male
    Inherent Marxus Legends
    Dirty Dingos
    All I've learned from this is that the Random Number Generator which determines loot return has 8 values, only 2 of which give a equal or positive return, equaling a 25% chance. Which means you have a 75% chance of having a loss.

    Seems about right.

    Was there something else I missed?

  4. #4

  5. #5
    Jul 2006
    Gender | Ingame
    Male | Male
    Chronic DeadEye Jay
    Silly Underground Family
    Quote Originally Posted by DreamNirvana View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote

    I can care less honestly
    So you do care? I knew it....

  6. #6
    Mar 2011
    Gender | Ingame
    Female | Female
    Granny Rowan Render
    Natural Born Killers
    Quote Originally Posted by Legends View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    All I've learned from this is that the Random Number Generator which determines loot return has 8 values, only 2 of which give a equal or positive return, equaling a 25% chance. Which means you have a 75% chance of having a loss.

    Seems about right.

    Was there something else I missed?
    If average returns were 'consistently' bad then this game would have died years ago. But it isn't and we are here and growing in number.
    Yes we have dry periods in game.. some long, some short but our averages are still deemed by each player that remains as acceptable. Note I say each player, as we all have our personal threshold for our finances, our patience with game bugs, boredom with iron missions or whatever. Those that can't take the heat leave, those that find more that is positive than negative stay.
    Yes on average we ALL lose some ped in game, after all we in a way employ MA, we have to pay their wages, their R&D costs, office rent etc oh yeh and profit.

    So long as the cost to play is proportionate to our enjoyment, no amount of theories about loots, crafting, mining finds etc will change anything. We are here to have fun if you want to just gamble and use your stats to gain a profit..try the stock market. People reckon there are hidden trends there too.. Good Luck

    Oh and btw if my mining finds were as few hits / drop as you propose I stop, change location or go hunting. I would never continue a run with low hit's why I don't and will never do indoor mining other than as an occasional whim. On average my returns are 80-85% TT and often higher or profit. I am not a pro miner, just a dabbler, like RL it is not about the opportunities MA offer, it is about what we do with them. Know when to walk away and try another day

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Psynergy View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    You are supposed to not focus on TT return which is what everyone seems stupidly focused on.
    because tt-returns matter xD
    What good is 150% MU loot doing you when you run 50% TT-return? You'll still end up with loss ^^
    Last edited by Alukat123; 02-11-2019 at 15:01.

  8. #8
    Old Alpha fred5283's Avatar
    Apr 2013
    Gender | Ingame
    Male | Male
    Norian Norian Xx
    Guess Who??
    Quote Originally Posted by Psynergy View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    ...Here's an example, if you cycle 1 million peds, and have a loss of 2%, that's only 2000 peds...
    20000 peds

  9. #9
    Jan 2017
    John Grimreaper Weaver
    Yeah i was just going to say your math is way off. You need to find 20000 peds worth of markup.

  10. #10
    Another bitter ex player come back or hanging around to tell us the game is rigged/doomed.
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