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Thread: Q2: volatility

  1. #1

    Q2: volatility

    currently on crafting and mining so it may take 6+ months to actually see the target return and there may be 1+k craft runs with sub 90% return (as low as 79% return for SIB BPs).

    Also currently there may be periods of 2-3 weeks of bad returns and then up to 20 globals/hofs on a single day.

    Loot 2.0 was supposed to reduce it, but so far all it did was increasing it.

    Will there be more tweaking to actually reduce the volatility?
    Last edited by Alukat123; 02-07-2019 at 06:28.

  2. #2
    Magnus Eriksson:

    Loot 2.0 only dealt with hunting loot, not crafting or mining.

    We also later made adjustments to reduce volatility in the crafting and mining systems, but that was not directly related to the Loot 2.0 system. Those adjustments were in general very well received by the community, based on feedback received via support cases and forum discussions.

    The Crafting and mining systems are constantly being monitored and tweaked.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Dennis|MindArk View Post
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    Magnus Eriksson:

    We also later made adjustments to reduce volatility in the crafting and mining systems, but that was not directly related to the Loot 2.0 system. Those adjustments were in general very well received by the community, based on feedback received via support cases and forum discussions.
    really? i don't know anyone who likes it. all crafters i know ingame don't like it for sure and the majority of the crafters here in the forum seem to not like it.
    Granted, the EP-IV Condition gamblers may receive it very well, because condition crafting indeed got less volatile, but as it goes for quantity MU crafters i highly doubt that it's well received there.
    Sure, there may be a few ubers who like getting more hofs on quantity and are fine with 80% return for a while, but i highly doubt those are the majority.

  4. #4
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    ...In case you didn't notice on longer runs the volatility was reduced quite a bit(for example 10k clicks of EP I on Caly as a test bed).
    Success rate and amount of overall TT ratio of input to product for ammo and components were also increased. It used to be 33% about, now 41% or so.

    The issue is that on higher TT blueprints things are still wildly variable, not enough materials are returned(instead we get nanocubes?), and the click cost to residue compensation ratio(TT of end item over input click value) isn't enough to compensate for the loss factors we face crafting.

    We need less variability and higher success rate on (L) blueprints that can only have short amounts of runs done on them, on high cost blueprints, and well...in general. Too many people are losing incredible amounts of money in very short amounts of time on higher craft cost things, when instead crafting should be focusing on burning up all of the resources in the economy, not inflicting yet another loss on us...

    There's no known scaling that keeps things in a trajectory of costs down and a lot of peds can be cycled very fast in crafting, leading to extreme costs hourly if you make a mistake.
    Last edited by Psynergy; 02-09-2019 at 07:41.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Psynergy View Post
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    ...In case you didn't notice on longer runs the volatility was reduced quite a bit(for example 10k clicks of EP I on Caly as a test bed).
    in case you didn't notice, i was talking about volatility in 1+k click runs, not 10+k clicks... the volatility got increase a lot there..

    never did i have runs of 1-4k clicks and ended up with 80% return before they started "reducing the volatility"

    Quote Originally Posted by Psynergy View Post
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    The issue is that on higher TT blueprints things are still wildly variable, not enough materials are returned(instead we get nanocubes?), and the click cost to residue compensation ratio(TT of end item over input click value) isn't enough to compensate for the loss factors we face crafting.

    We need less variability and higher success rate on (L) blueprints that can only have short amounts of runs done on them, on high cost blueprints, and well...in general. Too many people are losing incredible amounts of money in very short amounts of time on higher craft cost things, when instead crafting should be focusing on burning up all of the resources in the economy, not inflicting yet another loss on us...
    it has to be reduced on everything, just imagine, a new player comes into the game, decides to become a crafter, depos 200 PED. Buys QR 100 BSM BP, buys as many materials as he can, gets 75% TT-return....
    good first impression isn't it?

    And for us older players it isn't fun to get shit return run after shit return run for a long time either...
    I mean, waiting to get hof to get to 95ish% return... waiting 20k clicks, 50k clicks, 100k clicks, 250k clicks and at 400k clicks it may finally happen (true story btw)....

    doing 1k click run, getting 80% return, so click more, because multis should happen to get good return, and then you keep waiting for them to appear.. hours, days, weeks...

    they should just up the near successes, so that 1k click runs result in at least 90% return, then it would be fine.
    Last edited by Alukat123; 02-09-2019 at 08:00.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Dennis|MindArk View Post
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    Magnus Eriksson:

    Loot 2.0 only dealt with hunting loot, not crafting or mining.
    maybe not intentionally, here's a screenshot of what happened to crafting after you've adjusted hunting loot in december 2017. The red marked near successes didn't exist or not that frequent before december 2017 hunting loot adjustment. Mining got unintentionally effected as well btw.



    After 3-4 months of complaining about it (december2017-march2018), this, i guess unintentional change, finally got acknowledged, and partially adressed. With the crafting test and then it's current iteration, which still needs some tweaking.
    Last edited by Alukat123; 02-09-2019 at 09:26.

  7. #7
    Oh, now i see why you think you've reduced the volatility, you've taken the unintended change in december 2017 for what crafting has been all the time.
    So instead of reducing crafting volatility based on what it was supposed to be, before unintended change, you reduced it on the basis of that unintended change.

    That explains why you think you've reduced volatility even though it has increased compared to pre loot2.0 crafting volatility.

    pre loot 2.0, 1+k clicks resulted in at least 90% return
    loot 2.0 - december 2017, can't quite remember.
    december 2017 - march 2018, unintended change, 1+k clicks resulted in 80-95% return.
    now , 1+k clicks results in 80+% return.
    Last edited by Alukat123; 02-09-2019 at 09:07.

  8. #8
    So here's my follow-up question, now that we sorted out that you've accidently increased the crafting/mining volatility during loot 2.0, are there plans/do you intend to get the crafting/mining volatility down to niveau it was before loot 2.0?

    I know, you've made some adjustments already, but the volatility is still way higher than it was before loot 2.0....

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alukat123 View Post
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    pre loot 2.0, 1+k clicks resulted in at least 90% return
    Thats simply not true.

    I did a lot 1000 click runs, its my standard number of clicks I do on crafting.

    I have had a lot runs that ended far below 90% return, some even as bad as 60%.
    Surely it got partly compenstated the long run.

    Havenīt tracked it all, so I cant say what my overall return rate accumulated is (actually I dont care as only the actual ongoing run is important for me), but less than 80% on quantity definately happend in 1000 click runs in the past.

    If you have been lucky in the past and always got 90% and now you are in a down streak, not getting this 90% returns for a while, that happens. Claiming that in the past it was always 90% on 1000 clicks quantity is simply wrong, as it may have been that way for you, but surely not for all. Especially not for me!

    I have had bad streaks that lasted several month, this can happen!

    Beside that, I cant care less about multiplyers as long I have a high number of real success, especially on L BPs and item crafting (with residue) this is much more important for me than getting multis.

    Thats something I would really see to be improved, simply because it is so anoying if clicking a L BP with just a few attempts on it, and get real success rate below 10%. Thats what really sucks!

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by GoNi View Post
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    I have had a lot runs that ended far below 90% return, some even as bad as 60%.
    Oh yeah, i had that too, when doing condition crafting, but not once on quantity crafting, simply because almost all near successes were 90% which already resulted in high return. With 5% fail rate, 33% success and the rest mainly been 90% return near successes it was very hard to get less than 90% return on quantity crafting, unless you're talking about the pre 2014 era.
    There it may be true, but from 2014 to loot 2.0 pretty much all 1+k click runs were 90+% return with QR 100 UL BP.

    L BPs, especially if not maxed out, however could be pretty terrible, that's something i can agree too.

    Quote Originally Posted by GoNi View Post
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    Havenīt tracked it all, so I cant say what my overall return rate accumulated is (actually I dont care as only the actual ongoing run is important for me), but less than 80% on quantity definately happend in 1000 click runs in the past.
    If you have been lucky in the past and always got 90% and now you are in a down streak, not getting this 90% returns for a while, that happens. Claiming that in the past it was always 90% on 1000 clicks quantity is simply wrong, as it may have been that way for you, but surely not for all. Especially not for me!
    for me it started with the "hunting adjustment" VUs.
    So all 90+% return for 3 years, then VU and suddenly nearly all 80% and 90+% rarely seen again, not to mention not a single run above 95% return for 3-4 months, untill another VU, can hardly be only randomness...

    bring the volatility down again, to 90+% for 1+k click runs...

    Edit: and i bet, if MA checks the complaints about crafting/mining returns & volatility, the amount of complaints has drastically increased beginning with the "hunting adjustment" VU in december 2017, where they lowered the frequency and size of multis and upped the frequency of bonus shrapnell.
    Last edited by Alukat123; 02-11-2019 at 12:50.

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