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  1. #1
    Dominant allarom's Avatar
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    MA's numbers vs 1M cycle summary

    efficiency: 55%
    looter level: 47 (current)
    cycled: slightly over 1M
    NET tt return: 94.44% (this is with all used/received MU excluded)

    I've used total of 19.3k of MU and received 51.5k of MU. So i am facing at 97.58% of an overall return

    MA's statement:
    Hunters with turnover of more than 50000 PED since Sept. 11 have enjoyed returns of 98.6% on average.
    Hunters with turnover between 10000 and 50000 PED since Sept. 11 have enjoyed returns of 97.05% on average.
    Accounts created in 2017 have enjoyed returns of 96.94% on average since the changes implemented on Sept. 11.
    Nothing adds up here tbh (actually it adds, explanations somwhere in thread)

    1. How come these stated averages are different? Let's say test subjects with more than 50k all together cycles 1M and test subjects with less than 50k all together cycles 1M. Sholdn't the average be the same?
    2. Why my NET return is lower than a newbie's who has 0 looter level and most likely the same efficiency?
    3. Is MU included into return algorithms? My overall return fits perfectly to their statement

    Last edited by allarom; 05-15-2019 at 13:35. Reason: All my questions got solutions
    take my advice, i dont`t use it anyway!

  2. #2
    Ma added some markups on ur tt return, same as they done with fen adj/mod (L) faps

  3. #3
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    1. No, averages will always differ, that's how statistics work. (Unless you are doing infinite runs of the statistics)
    2. Because the loot is somewhat random, Trust me, there are hundreds of players with lower NET return than you.
    3. MU cannot be included in their algorithm as the MU is based of what players pay themselves and isn't created by the game engine itself.

    There are some factors that you have missed in your calculations of efficiency aswell, to make a true reading of your costs/returns.

    1. What armor are you using,does it have MU and how efficient the decay vs protection on it?
    2. What healing tool are you using and how efficient is it?
    3. Did you use any pills (Which adds to the MU cost) or was only clean runs with rings only.
    4. How efficiently were you killing the mobs, did you have to spend time healing a lot with an in-efficient healing tool?

    These are just a few extra factors that you would need to consider while doing calculations like these.
    In the beginning the universe was created, this has made a lot of people very angry and is widely regarded as a bad move.

  4. #4
    Elite Ace Flyster's Avatar
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    I think you are missing understanding the word 'averages.'

    Rgds

    Ace
    2nd published novel: 'The Shadow Grounds'
    1st published novel: 'The Eyes of the Devil'
    Book 3 - Working Title 'The Meeting of Worlds' - 25%
    Book 4 - Sci-Fi Book - No title yet - 10%

  5. #5
    Dominant allarom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Seventia View Post
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    1. No, averages will always differ, that's how statistics work. (Unless you are doing infinite runs of the statistics)
    How, please explain? take 100 folks, all shoot 50k, it makes 5M total cycle. Now take 200 folks, all shoot 25k, it makes 5M total cycle. Explain to me, how and why AVERAGE should be different?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Seventia View Post
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    There are some factors that you have missed in your calculations of efficiency aswell, to make a true reading of your costs/returns.

    1. What armor are you using,does it have MU and how efficient the decay vs protection on it?
    2. What healing tool are you using and how efficient is it?
    3. Did you use any pills (Which adds to the MU cost) or was only clean runs with rings only.
    4. How efficiently were you killing the mobs, did you have to spend time healing a lot with an in-efficient healing tool?

    These are just a few extra factors that you would need to consider while doing calculations like these.
    Missed? Nothing is missed, everything is added to cycle. I've used some UL armors/faps AND some L armors/faps (which MU is excluded from NET return). Pills is not cycle, their MU is not included to NET return

    NB! my return % is perfectly synced between loss and deposits during 1M cycle period
    take my advice, i dont`t use it anyway!

  6. #6
    Slayer GoNi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by allarom View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    How, please explain? take 100 folks, all shoot 50k, it makes 5M total cycle. Now take 200 folks, all shoot 25k, it makes 5M total cycle. Explain to me, how and why AVERAGE should be different?
    Well 100 folks all shoot 50k = 5mio cycled, so far all nice.

    MA says average is 98.6% return = 4.93mio total.

    Speak average / hunter is 49300 PEDs in loot.

    But now:
    2 of this hunters made 100k profit = 300k of the loot
    4 of this hunters 50k profit = 400k of the loot
    14 of hunters made 20k profit = 980k of the loot
    30 hunters made around 2k profit = 1.56mio of the loot

    Altogether 3.24mio for this 50 hunters.
    The 50 others lost!

    How much did the 50 others lose?
    Well they got the remaining 1.69mio, speak 33800 PED on average, which is a loss of 16200 PED on their 50k cycled = a damn evil return rate of 67.6% on average for those who lost.

    This is one extreme scenario, but its also a statistical possible one.

    On the losers side there could also be extrem lows and close to 100% returns, speak even a 50%- return rate for a single hunter wouldnīt change the fact of the overall average return of 98.6% for all together.

    Well the loot is much flatter than it is in this sample, so there will be less winners and not that much really low returns below 70%, but its definately possible for single hunter to have less than 70% return rate (befor MU) and the numbers given by MA may still be right. The gaps between winners and losers arenīt that big, but to explain it is better to take some extrem numbers.

    Its damn simple math.

    Beside that I dont like that they just give an average. We should also have info about median and mode, what would help much more to see where you stand in the big picture. Beside that they could also give info about MIN and MAX.

    I doubt they will give us that much statistical details.

  7. #7
    Dominant allarom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoNi View Post
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    Well 100 folks all shoot 50k = 5mio cycled, so far all nice.

    MA says average is 98.6% return = 4.93mio total.

    Speak average / hunter is 49300 PEDs in loot.

    But now:
    2 of this hunters made 100k profit = 300k of the loot
    4 of this hunters 50k profit = 400k of the loot
    14 of hunters made 20k profit = 980k of the loot
    30 hunters made around 2k profit = 1.56mio of the loot

    Altogether 3.24mio for this 50 hunters.
    The 50 others lost!

    How much did the 50 others lose?
    Well they got the remaining 1.69mio, speak 33800 PED on average, which is a loss of 16200 PED on their 50k cycled = a damn evil return rate of 67.6% on average for those who lost.
    We don't even have to take somebody's loss / profit into account. Let's say, the cycle number of all hunter combined is infinity. compared to <50k cyclers vs >50k cyclers, averages just can't be different. For me, these MA's numbers are taken from thin air and forces people to cycle more
    take my advice, i dont`t use it anyway!

  8. #8
    Slayer girtsn's Avatar
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    It is easy to put it down to efficiency and looter levels, but then I have had ~95% tt return for multiple months with much higher levels and have increased the efficiency without seeing positive effects, so have kind of the same questions not for the first time in my looting career.
    The only answer you would get is that it is dynamic and that your statistics are wrong, I am afraid. Ah and yes you will also get this question a lot - are you complaining about 94% tt return? As for others (ones who suspiciously never track their runs) the return is 80% on good weeks.

    Quote Originally Posted by allarom View Post
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    efficiency: 55%
    looter level: 47 (current)

    1. How come these stated averages are different? Let's say test subjects with more than 50k all together cycles 1M and test subjects with less than 50k all together cycles 1M. Sholdn't the average be the same?
    2. Why my NET return is lower than a newbie's who has 0 looter level and most likely the same efficiency?
    3. Is MU included into return algorithms? My overall return fits perfectly to their statement
    check out Smilgs hunting log and Smilgs coloring, texturing, beauty service
    for chosens high efficiency stuff & looter skills work longterm - and others can go f... themselves. as usual

  9. #9
    Dominant allarom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Seventia View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    2. Because the loot is somewhat random, Trust me, there are hundreds of players with lower NET return than you.
    It is not about low/high return, it is statistics for comparsion. You should do some also when you will reach 1M cycle within next 5 years
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Seventia View Post
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    3. MU cannot be included in their algorithm as the MU is based of what players pay themselves and isn't created by the game engine itself.
    "cannot"? go check FEN vendor's FEN (L) items. All prices all well calculated based on possible MU value
    take my advice, i dont`t use it anyway!

  10. #10
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    I actually cycled ~155k in aproximately 2 months time last summer and my returns were 97.38% TT returns, It was done with pretty much the same setup for the entire duration. (Around 60% eff. weapon, good eff. armor etc).
    It is just random with statistics honestly, there is no way to compare it to anything because it needs numbers that are extremely high before they even out.

    Here is a link to my excel doc where I tracked my returns for about 2-3 months time. (If you are interested)
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...4Zg/edit#gid=0

    Quote Originally Posted by allarom View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    It is not about low/high return, it is statistics for comparsion. You should do some also when you will reach 1M cycle within next 5 years

    "cannot"? go check FEN vendor's FEN (L) items. All prices all well calculated based on possible MU value
    In the beginning the universe was created, this has made a lot of people very angry and is widely regarded as a bad move.

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