Cycles

[Netaqel]

Hi,

So - cycle X peds and returns should appear. Or cycle Y mob and same...

From where that knowledge came ? Some VU or someone discovered it or just imaginations ?


Regards,

Net

 

[UnaAlconbury]

The underlying knowledge that it is based on loot instances is confirmed by Mindark themselves, as can be seen in the quotes below. As far as an actual number of recommended kills, that comes from players actually testing it and interpreting the numbers.

The amount of turnover isn't very relevant to the average return or volatility in return for any individual player. To reach a stable average return it's really the amount of loot instances or creatures killed that matters. As an example, if a player kills 2 Sand Kings spending about 5000 PED to do so the expected loot returned on those 2 kills can vary greatly. If instead killing 200,000 Punies also about 5000 PED the expected loot return is going to be very close to the expected average of 96%+ seen in the 2017 group. A more realistic example of this is perhaps spending 300 PED hunting Proterons vs spending 300 PED hunting small Argonauts where the Argonaut hunt will usually yield similar results and the Proteron hunt results can be all over the place since the loot events are so few.

As mentioned in a previous answer, the most important part for stable returns is the amount of kills or loot events not the amount of turnover. Most new players have very low turnover but hunt mobs like punies and therefore kill a large amount of mobs, like 1000 as you mentioned. This does produce results pretty close to the average for most new players.

 

[Ferial]

Simulations made with a very crude mathematical model, 40% cost variability and static multipliers. 10 players (with the exact same stats and items) each killing the same amount of 4 ped average mobs.

Spoiler: 100 loot instances

High: 107.3%
Low: 69.53%

Spoiler: 1000 loot instances

High: 112.67%
Low: 80.15%

Spoiler: 10 000 loot instances

High: 102.47%
Low: 91.76%

Spoiler: 100 000 loot instances

High: 98.41%
Low: 95.82%

Spoiler: 1 000 000 loot instances

High: 97.67%
Low: 96.61%

As can be seen, variance is reduced with increased loot instances.

The numbers in themselves have nothing to do with Entropia Universe, as the mathematical model is vastly different. Looter, efficiency, time and what not has been completely ignored for the sake of illustrating the point that more is better, pretty much.

 

[Netaqel]

Hmm, let's assume I understood your answers and MA citates...

So:

1) return is average around "expected 96+%" (for hunting 2.0) as MA|Charlie quaote says - that we can take for granted
2) then testing show that actual game implementation is based on cycles

And "chat knowledge" says cycle restarts every 10k or 100k ped ?

Regards,

Net

 

[Svarog]

And "chat knowledge" says cycle restarts every 10k or 100k ped ?

Nothing restarts, it's a continuous process. It evens out to 95%+ due to the law of large numbers, not due to some magic or hidden mechanics. The "95%+" is the average value for the whole population though, not your personal "guaranteed", but the more you cycle personally the closer you get to the average.

 

[Netaqel]

Ok, then my "cycle" definition is wrong.

So "cycle" mean: you have 1k ped in ammo, cycle it 10 times and you will have around 95+% return.

Then things like "you need to cycle 10k mobX eg. atrox" are similiar misunderstandings ?

Regards,

Net

 

[Svarog]

Then things like "you need to cycle 10k mobX eg. atrox" are similiar misunderstandings ?

Such things just tell you what is a meaningful amount of kills for this particular mob to start seeing better results. Because say 10k ped cycled on exarosaurs (100hp), atrox (1000hp) and warlocks (10000hp) are 3 massively different things with a different outcome.

 

[Ferial]

Terminology doesn't matter, there is no magic number. There is no "kill 10000 mobs and you will get 95% returns". The only thing you need to know is:

The more loot instances you experience the closer you get to your expected outcome.

In order to not go broke in bad times you need to hunt at your level, and within your bankroll limits.

Arguably one of the most important reads for anyone:

Risk of Ruin - Bankroll Management

As I intend to share some aspects of my data collection in my Improved Mako FAL journey, I wanted to spin up a conversation that it seems that most people cannot comphrend on PCF.. and that is bankroll management. One aspect of bankroll management is how you use it in day to day operations...

www.planetcalypsoforum.com

Read it, preferably more than once.

 

[mastermesh]

in statistics if you change the size of your population tested you'll always get different numbers. Same applies here. Just because a casino offers an 'average' on what the slot machines will pay out does not mean that each pull of the hancle will result in that return. It'd be nice if it did but it does not. In theory if no one in Entropia Universe played except one avatar for one week that average would likely be discovered by that avatar. However, we know that's not how it really works so... uh...

It's not exact, but the best way I think to think about this is that it's somewhat similar to how progressive slot machines worked in loot 1.0. Howadays it's more of a forced pay out percentage of decay after Minddark and Planet Partner take their cut. There are still waves, but they are more like gently sloping hills instead of roller coasters.

 

[Netaqel]

So, looks like there are no cycles. At least nothing like name sugests.

Thanks everyone.

Regrds,

Net

 

[Bones]

So, looks like there are no cycles. At least nothing like name sugests.

Thanks everyone.

Regrds,

Net

To which cycle are you referring ?

A pattern
A revolution
A rhythm
A series , sequence or a succession
A bicycle

I think a more clear understanding on the expectation for which you are looking , would help the discussion find your answer.

I found the answers given very informative.

 

[mastermesh]

To which cycle are you referring ?

A pattern
A revolution
A rhythm
A series , sequence or a succession
A bicycle

I think a more clear understanding on the expectation for which you are looking , would help the discussion find your answer.

I found the answers given very informative.

I think he was asking if personal loot pool exists that automatically returns all peds paid out if you wait long enough. That doesn't work, but if you are lucky it could if you get ahead and stop, just like any other casino.... However if you are like most gamblers and gamers if you get ahead in the black you'll be red before long.

 

[Deemer]

The underlying knowledge that it is based on loot instances is confirmed by Mindark themselves, as can be seen in the quotes below. As far as an actual number of recommended kills, that comes from players actually testing it and interpreting the numbers.

The key word is 2017. In the summer of 2020 there were changes and now the system works differently.


In November and December, I killed exactly 50,000 punies and my return was 92.8% on this test. A year earlier than the same test my score was just over 95%.

Many of MA's claims that are cited and given as examples are contradictory, and the tests that make MA GM in the game appear to be at level 100.

The only chance for a good return at low and medium level is to play for the prey of others, using only the time when the wave is good.

The low- and middle-level player in the current system can never make a profit after a mark-up, even after 50,000 ped spins if you follow advices here.

This cannot be compared to the turnover of a high-level player whose gameplay is different due to the high degree of minimal loss (assuming that the percentages you give in your examples are correct).

A new player does not need expensive weapons. The exceptions are those who are willing to spend a large sum and this is not a problem for them, but in this case they can buy skills for this money, which makes weapons below level 70 useless for their level.

If this is not your case, focus on a mob with a good Markup and find out when you should not hunt. Otherwise you will always play at a loss.

 

[RickEngland]

So, looks like there are no cycles. At least nothing like name sugests.

Thanks everyone.

Regrds,

Net

Some people call what ever MA sets your loot dial at "as cycles", but it's really a test of your on-going acceptance of loss.

I actually think what happens under the hood is you build a bank of reserve damage, and MA at some point releases held back damage in bulk as profit return, by turning up your loot dial for say a 4 hour period.

Hence the view of the cycle.

I find it quite interesting that those who regularly hunt huge mobs can have just as long build, as those hunting smaller mobs.

For instance you can have a player that hunts 50 ped per kill mobs wait weeks even months for a equaliser. Where a player that hunts a 5 ped per kill mobs would view a 50 ped mob kill as a "hof" mob, which does happen.

So I'm sure there's a variable in there that tracks your personal hunting style and reacts to change. It can be fun trying to force the system to pay hunting different mobs.

I don't view the game as you "have to" commit to this or that. I play it as a choice, "when I want". Try and confuse the loot algorithm.

One thing I'm pretty sure about, is there's an addiction variable in there, once it thinks your hooked, it will test you with a cycle of loss. See if you will take it or leave it. Psychology warfare in action. It's annoying but kind if entertaining at the same time. I like to test it back with "will power", quite funny.

Rick

 

[Kerham]

So, looks like there are no cycles.

If you're asking if there exist some preset number of mobs which you ought to kill to see x or y return, doesn't exist such thing.

By the way, careful with your example. "1k ped ammo, cycle 10 times, return 95%".

Be it cycle = c

c1 1k 95% 950
c2 950 95% 902,5
c3 902,5 95% 857,4
c4 857,4 95% 814,5
c5 814,5 95% 773,8
c6 773,8 95% 735,1
c7 735,1 95% 698,3
c8 698,3 95% 663,3
c9 663,3 95% 630,1
c10 630,1 95% 598,6

So: end of c10 vs start of c1 you would have actually 59.86% So in order to break even, you'd need along the way 400sih markup to cover losses.

The way you check return in this case is sum(output)/sum(input), in this case will be 7623/8025 which does give 95%. This is what "1k cycled at 95% 10 times" looks like.

However this is an ideal static example. In reality, you will have 65% and 120% thrown here and there, which, for example, could make 1k not enough to make it from c1 to c10.

You might look around for atomicstorm's thread about bankroll management.

That being said, the numbers given by MindArk in 2017 are not true anymore, they are indeed lower a few good % (in my experience, about 3%), which might be needed for the increased hofs we're seeing.

 

[Netaqel]

"1k ped ammo, cycle 10 times, return 95%".

I put that shortcut to show only what "cycles" I see in game. I had in mind that it's simplified and "1k ped" diminishes...

Be it cycle = c

c1 1k 95% 950
c2 950 95% 902,5
c3 902,5 95% 857,4
c4 857,4 95% 814,5
c5 814,5 95% 773,8
c6 773,8 95% 735,1
c7 735,1 95% 698,3
c8 698,3 95% 663,3
c9 663,3 95% 630,1
c10 630,1 95% 598,6

So: end of c10 vs start of c1 you would have actually 59.86% So in order to break even, you'd need along the way 400sih markup to cover losses.

... but do not realised it is so much fun - 400% MU to break even

You might look around for atomicstorm's thread about bankroll management.

Re-reading this atm. However can't find anything usefull - for me it's just says: you need to loose slower Becouse, as you pointed, after 10 cycles
it is guaranteed to have just 60% of starting amount. [Personal note: exacly this happens to me few time - exactly on cycle no 2...]

Maybe it have more sense in insurance. Or maybe RoR is not a whole picture. It for sure can have huge meaning if there are periodical returns
in loot - "just keep shoting and your loses will return !". But existence of such automatic mechanism in game was disproved in this thread.

But actually looks like sometimes this happens - some huge loot is found. But maybe it's not a game mechanics or maybe some other "system".
Or maybe you just looted what someone lost ? And it was cut to 95% of your loses :>

And my brain do not allow me to keep shooting hundred of mobs per day, just NO ! Probably that's why I like mining

Anyway, "bankroll" is big topic for separate thread.

That being said, the numbers given by MindArk in 2017 are not true anymore, they are indeed lower a few good % (in my experience, about 3%), which might be needed for the increased hofs we're seeing.

That's a material for big thread ! Or few :>


Regards,

Net

 

[Ferial]

... but do not realised it is so much fun - 400% MU to break even

That's not at all how it works, if your returns are stable 95% you need 105,26% average markup to breakeven regardless of how many times you cycle your peds

Re-reading this atm. However can't find anything usefull - for me it's just says: you need to loose slower Becouse, as you pointed, after 10 cycles
it is guaranteed to have just 60% of starting amount. [Personal note: exacly this happens to me few time - exactly on cycle no 2...]

RoR is quite literally everything. Live by what is said in that thread and keep shooting.
The idea is that you lose slowly enough to be able to sustain through the "rough" periods so that you can afford to keep cycling until the numbers are more in your favor. If you don't enjoy the volatility of 60-135% runs, you scale down to where you are able to get more loot-instances per "run" and in turn reduce volatility.

Maybe it have more sense in insurance. Or maybe RoR is not a whole picture. It for sure can have huge meaning if there are periodical returns
in loot - "just keep shoting and your loses will return !". But existence of such automatic mechanism in game was disproved in this thread.

Just for reference nothing has been proved or disproved in this thread. Everything in here is just speculation based on observations. No substantiated evidence anywhere to be found in this thread.

Anyway, "bankroll" is big topic for separate thread.

Bankroll has a lot to do with your original post. Perhaps I'm misinterpreting, or perhaps you are not asking the questions you want answered?

 

[Evey]

That being said, the numbers given by MindArk in 2017 are not true anymore, they are indeed lower a few good % (in my experience, about 3%), which might be needed for the increased hofs we're seeing.

The game would not be playable if what you said was true. Luckily it isn't. That was an average. People will be below or above that line, not ON that line.
Turnover is very important. To do turnover you need, bankroll, the right tools, focus on the right skills, focus on the right mobs at the right level, focus on what's on the hood and not under it. Build the right habits and ignore cycles, what mobs pay, when loot is hot or not.

 

[Netaqel]

The idea is that you lose slowly enough to be able to sustain through the "rough" periods so that you can afford to keep cycling until the numbers are more in your favor.

In other words: you cycle slow enough to sustain rought parts of loot cycle

Bankroll has a lot to do with your original post. Perhaps I'm misinterpreting, or perhaps you are not asking the questions you want answered?

Look, I stared with examples of what players say and post. One interpretation of that "common knowledge" is that there are magical return cycles -
on end of them you get what you lost - that was disprowed. Also asked about "mob cycling" and answer was same.

And in thread appeared other meanings of word "cycle":

- daily ped/mob cycling - that's related to bankroll
- waves / periods of loot - quite close to "magical cycle" becouse why there should be better and worse periods ? And if they are - how they work ?

Maybe others.

So to repeat: I asked about existence of any cycles in game and their workings.

And I am gratefull you guys try to answer __exactly__ what I'm asked for but I didn't have some specific meaning in mind that I was beliving to be truth.
I asked what is and is not in game and why people think that.

It's like I asked about some science domain and you keep asking which details I have in mind


Regards,

Net

 

[Netaqel]

focus on the right skills, focus on the right mobs at the right level, focus on what's on the hood and not under it. Build the right habits

You know what ? I just have plans for next thread named "Proper gun for your level" and other proper and right things to do

 

[PreyNaika]

Cycle start with 1000 ped

1 950 ped tt return
2 902,5 ped tt return
3 857,37
4 814,50
5 773,78
6 735,09
7 698,33
8 663,42
9 630,24
10 598,73

401,27 tt loss with 95% return rate unable to Cover loss with Markt up
Next step = Alt f 4 delete entropia

 

[Kerham]

The game would not be playable if what you said was true. Luckily it isn't. That was an average. People will be below or above that line, not ON that line.
Turnover is very important.

Exactly (my bold). On 27 september that year they published a note where they looked at avg return per tiers of turnover. For a period of refference of two weeks (starting with 11th that month) they chose as highest tier of turnover the sum of 50k. They gave an average of 98,6%. My turnover for a period of nearly exactly 1 month is 140k, So, more than their chosen ratio (25k per week). In these conditions, my return is 93,3%. I do understand how averages work, but my return just doesn't move from there. It's not that today I am here and tomorrow I am there, since I started the xls, once I reached about 40k or so total turnover, it hasn't moved anymore above, best case, 94% overall.

I don't believe there are so many lvl70 hunters ingame who shoot at least comparably to my turnover, not saying alot more. There simply don't exist the tools. I am using armatrix bc-55+dante, usually maxed on reload and I am shooting more than 10hrs a day regularly. (save for last 3-4 days, actually bit burned out and tired, need a few days of break from grinding).

"just keep shoting and your loses will return !"

It does never "return", that's at best a misrepresentation and at worst outright a mistification/scam. To use again a cooked-up conceptual example, if over 100k you had 90k return, it doesn't need to pop you up 8k from Santa Clause to bring you to 98%. Is enough to have afterwards hundreds of intervals of 100k with 98% themselves such as initial lost will "melt" in the average. Big hofs are, imo, just a function of limits. Respectively, if we were to use the notion of multiplier (which again I don't believe is a thing), is enough for the system to be calibrated like "minimum multiplier 0,25, maximum multiplier 3000, average population of 90% of multipliers at 99%". And then once every few dozens millions of attempts you'd have lucky Joe hoffing today 10k and tomorrow 15k, but for the entirety of mobs killed ingame divided by the entirety of the cost spent to kill them, the average will still be wherever MA decided it to be (say, 96% or whatever).

 

[Msturlese]

according to wiki cells +decay you shot 25.8 x second max reload = 60 * 1.15 = 69 shot per min 1068 ped per hour
losing 64 ped per hour = 640 x day or 19.000 ped per month? (10 jhours fight per day)

seems really not sustainable paying 2000 USD per month to hunt
do you confirm those numbers?

 

[Kerham]

according to wiki cells +decay you shot 25.8 x second max reload = 60 * 1.15 = 69 shot per min 1068 ped per hour
losing 64 ped per hour = 640 x day or 19.000 ped per month? (10 jhours fight per day)

seems really not sustainable paying 2000 USD per month to hunt
do you confirm those numbers?

Almost. You need to adjust that number for some factors, like:

- density of spawn (most dense would be usually in instances, which I do sometimes), running after mob, eventually healing
- being an L gun, you need any given time, depending how you manage your weps, to stock up on a few
- you need breaks to auction
- other human stuff, up to 15hrs on a chair is dangerous
etc

So that number in my case, from the wiki absolute total possible, goes down to about 50%. Respectively most days I stayed ingame 15hrs, doing 6 dantes per day (30k shots per day), which means actual max turnover per day of 7500. Lowest point was, if I recall correctly, a few days of using unenhanced emik L2+dante, so then a turnover of 2-3k, depending again.

Overall, per one month, at 140,733.45 tt expense recorded (including deffensive) I had a total return of 131,314.18 which gives 93,31%. TT loss of 9419,27. Possible error of max 800, I seriously botched the notes of a very long run based on rerolling shrapnel, but that's a possible error of max 0,5% overall. And no, it's not sustainable, is on another planet than sustainable. But I am a very curious person and willing for serious efforts just to control a hypothesis or another. I preffer to not discuss at large the MU which I saw, because then there will be again a dispute with Eve saying I am lieing or something. But measuring every few k turnover, comparing to my costs and considering an ideal return of about 97% I only found one mob which would barely hit the break even point. My guess is that the problem is rather about what turnover certain hp of mobs can carry per day, respectively most MU hardcapped in tt terms. If I were to formulate a hypothesis, but is very very vague, at my level best situation would be something like 1-1,5k turnover a day per few certain mobs of 500-1k hp. And then keeping this objectively very low turnover until something like lvl 80+ where I could then access mobs which can actually carry in reality a certain turnover, not only on paper. That is mostly guesswork but probably that's where my next attempt would go because indeed 9k tt loss monthly is not sustainable with, say, 5 peds of tier3 comps per day.

 

[Msturlese]

I can only offer my personal experience and offer an alternative test
1. i used EWE41 adj+i105 amp sicne i was 38 (maxed) untilnow 60
2. i hunt 96% combat level /3 maximum momsters
i average the number you say as "should be" 97 to 98%
with some MU i float around parity for 140k cycle

The only strange thing that i see in your setup iis the use of a (L) weapon
each BC55 has 7900 shots or you use 4 per day that is 60 ped per day or 1800 ped per month "wasted" compared to a UL wep

dante has a DPP of 4.42 comapred to 4.61 of a Improved 105. the bad DPP of BLP amps lead to less benefit but cost to kill should
be coimpesnated in loot 2.0 ... 0.20 DPP over 30.000 shots at 8 pec of amp would be better 25 ped per day with laser or 750 ped

still not enough difference to blame the weapon, also 700 USD per month is too high

i would say
if it is not the weapon it is the monster. do you fight incredible big and risky monster or somnething under level 20?
maybe reading the info someone with more experience than me can find some ideas
i would kill smaller with UL to reduce variance

 

[Deemer]

Decreasing the mob level does not make a difference in the% ratio for long runs.

My salary is 10k and my partner's salary is 2k. On average we take 6k!
Which of us in this example gets a 6k salary?

 

[Kerham]

each BC55 has 7900 shots or you use 4 per day that is 60 ped per day or 1800 ped per month "wasted" compared to a UL wep

UL wep at what dps?

BC55 with extender P20 has 9890 shots. 9890 shots with dante means a turnover of 2550 ped. Counting 22-25 ped per gun and 1,7 ped per tt of extender, we end up at about 1% effective MU vs turnover. That's the only armatrix combos I use, which fit into this math, to be able to count on shrapnel.

In terms of eco, effective dpp of bc55+dante is 3.017, effective dpp of ep41adj+i105 is 2.951, however in 2.0 that strictly regards the number of kills, not the cost per se. However, at 55dps adjep vs 77dps bc55, there is no point in comparing them.

I only use as ul a smaller emik L2 for out of calypso, in rest I preffer by far the flexibility of ArMatrix.

My problem with variance is not that is too high, but is too low. Over any significant interval, there is no variance in my return. You can see on my tracker what I hunt, usually mobs at 900-1,5k hpish, lvl20-30. Rarely 2k-3k hp, up to lvl50, if I am aggroed (e.g. high shubs spawning between smaller ones on Monria)

Number of mobs tried, that could be a thing, I kept probing here and there to find some reasonable MU mobs. So maybe a couple of dozens "species", that might indeed bring some sort of low average return. By then again, why stabilize on any random one if there's no MU? The only one I did extensively is caperon, to finish their 15th stage, nearly there, then will see.

But I think we went a bit offtopic here

 

[M Rufen Power]

From what I understand from the OP, the poster is thinking that cycles were determined by turnover, i.e. cycling 1k peds to reach a 10k cycle? Probably due to limited funds or cannot keep depositing to sustain the level of progression. But this doesn't work in this game and will never work, and never has; this is how many other hunters and I keep losing no matter what mob is hunted or the gear utilised. The reason this doesn't work is some mobs can take more than 1k peds, lol. I recommend killing 1 mob between 10000-20000 times and figure out how to achieve a 95%+ TT return result without losing everything and going broke. The loot system uses sine waves, I suggest you go learn what those are as well, and incorporate it alongside a bankroll management plan and kills required. Now, for myself, I am currently fluctuating between 98-100% TT returns and after markup I am easily earning peds at a steady pace, winning is all in consistency and markup.

 

[M Rufen Power]

Anyone struggling with 93% returns should ask themselves, am I leaving the table with chips in the pot?

 

[Deemer]

Dude, I think most people know about the waves, and it's no secret, so there are people who reach level 100 after 20 years of surfing only on the crest of the wave... flying from one place to another, looking at where the mobs are feed during this period, while the rate is low... and many such of other shit.

However, there are people who do not want to wait 5 or 10 hours to play for 2 hours after patiently waiting. That's why I personally look for the optimal option in which to play all the time, but not to be at a loss... even after I have paid for it.

In any case, everyone is below 100% TT sooner or later, I personally do not understand why even after the Markup the system does not allow me to make even a small profit.

I don't like your style of play. I've tried it and I can play like you at 100% TT, but I don't think to play 20 years to level 100, nor do I think 20 peds over 100% is worth it.