0 Sucess with high skills

Geez. I piss myself in losing 200 ped in hunting and you gamble at 20 ped a click on condition and wonder where your money went.
 
Most people are embarrassed by things which make them look like a complete idiot, yet you post about it on a public forum.

184 351 PED Explosive Projecti 06/19/2015
162 794 PED Explosive Projecti 01/04/2016
66 243 PED Explosive Projecti 12/28/2015


Stop being a bellend. Or go to vegas. Or, continue clicking EP4 but don't expect positive comments when you post about your massive loss / massive ATH returning you to 95% on here.
 
okay lets try 320 k since jan/feb 2016 ...

If you hit yourself on the thumb with a hammer, do you keep on hitting yourself to see if it hurts less the following times?

There's a very VERY obvious pattern here which you completely ignore. I'd suggest you move on to another activity/profession.
 
The only thing that's making me smile about the whole thread, is the view he got the ATH's to bring him back to 95%. When everyone keeps telling me; "it's all about the luck mate"....and there is no personal loot.

So what's the story, there's lucky ATH's or compensation ATH's? or both?

Am I supposed to say to myself "sucker", every time I see someone get a ATH?

You guys make me smile.

On a more serious note, if it's deposited peds, you need to seek some help. If the loses are losing won peds, then we all know that's how the game rolls.

Who knows he may hit 300K next time....lol.

I can't complete with you guys disposable income. Anyway no loss is a real loss unless it's deposited. If you're burning up landowner or CLD income, it's not as painful.

I won't bash an addict though, we're not always in control of our minds.

Rick
 
The only thing that's making me smile about the whole thread, is the view he got the ATH's to bring him back to 95%. When everyone keeps telling me; "it's all about the luck mate"....and there is no personal loot.

So what's the story, there's lucky ATH's or compensation ATH's? or both?


Basic mathematics?

If I get 1+1+1+1+0 from 5 attempts, it is the same as 0+0+0+0+4 from 5 attempts. Both have given me a return of 80%.

If the centre point is 0.95, then all results will on average tend to 0.95. This doesn't require some mythical loot/cost tracking idea, it's literally just an average value.
 
Basic mathematics?

If I get 1+1+1+1+0 from 5 attempts, it is the same as 0+0+0+0+4 from 5 attempts. Both have given me a return of 80%.

If the centre point is 0.95, then all results will on average tend to 0.95. This doesn't require some mythical loot/cost tracking idea, it's literally just an average value.
Yeah I mean it really isn't that hard to understand. Flip a coin 1,000 times, and maybe you get heads 10 times in a row. If the 11th flip is tails, it doesn't mean the coin "knew" you were "due" for tails. It's called independent probability and it's very well documented. Amazes me that players to this day refuse to acknowledge such a well known theory.
 
Game doesn't operate on law of independent trials because it cant. Computer rng is never completely random.

Rather, it operates on law of large numbers evident by my video and the logarithmic graph which had the same behavior every month since I began playing.
 
Game doesn't operate on law of independent trials because it cant. Computer rng is never completely random.

Rather, it operates on law of large numbers evident by my video and the logarithmic graph which had the same behavior every month since I began playing.
Fair enough. Either way, my point was that talking about loot pools is just silly.
 
Basic mathematics?

If I get 1+1+1+1+0 from 5 attempts, it is the same as 0+0+0+0+4 from 5 attempts. Both have given me a return of 80%.

If the centre point is 0.95, then all results will on average tend to 0.95. This doesn't require some mythical loot/cost tracking idea, it's literally just an average value.

Don't you think there's a contradiction here. If ever anyone mentions personal damage pool, or personal crafting attempt pool (I say again "personal") it's slammed down.

But surely even mentioning averaging to 95% or 80% for the inputs a player makes, is suggesting that very thing....that the system is measuring personal activity (whatever that's supposed to represent), and pays out accordingly.

I actually believe is does measure damage for hunting anyway, and pays back on ever widening cycles based on activity...to test your card. I wouldn't be surprised if it deletes what it owes you either, depending on your willingness to pay more.

I can almost say for a fact you buy time these days (or paying avas are put on that wave), 3 times it's happened to me now that £100 buys we 3 weeks'ish of globals. Then the light goes off until the card is cleaned.

Anyway I think if I got an ATH crafting explo, I'd thank my lucky stars, and wouldn't touch it again.

Rick
 
Game doesn't operate on law of independent trials because it cant. Computer rng is never completely random.

Rather, it operates on law of large numbers evident by my video and the logarithmic graph which had the same behavior every month since I began playing.

Actually it's not that hard to generate actual randomness these days. But I doubt that MA does it.
 
Actually it's not that hard to generate actual randomness these days. But I doubt that MA does it.

Yes, but not complete randomness required to put it in line with the law of independent trials.
 
Game doesn't operate on law of independent trials because it cant. Computer rng is never completely random.

Rather, it operates on law of large numbers evident by my video and the logarithmic graph which had the same behavior every month since I began playing.

Actually, most versions of the Law of Large Numbers require independent trials (it may hold if the trials are dependent but then you need specific conditions on the form of dependence).

Computers may not be able to generate "completely" random numbers (whatever that means), but they can generate numbers that statistically behave exactly as random numbers would. In particular, you won't be able to consistently guess the next outcome based on the previous results.

As for the game, it appears that there is some "randomness" going on and some "time dependence" is going on as well as other factors for the specific makeup of loot. I generally agree with you and others that by cycling enough you observe the convergence of averages as expected by the law of large numbers, and that is basically the only thing you can count on in EU in terms of TT profit/loss (before markup).
 
Hook up an external sensor for something like wind speed, air pressure or temperature, report values to several decimal places and use only the least significant digits. That's going to be a random sequence.

Or use a service such as Random.org
 
Hook up an external sensor for something like wind speed, air pressure or temperature, report values to several decimal places and use only the least significant digits. That's going to be a random sequence.

Or use a service such as Random.org

AFAIK MA has always used time as an influence factor. I think they have been using a time-seeded (probably microsecond (10-^6) pRNG since the beginning, and each "system" which requires "randomness" is based on that seed.

This would then be easy to allocate time periods which effectively guarantee a result (explaining waves) by issuing segments of variable portions of time.

It's also a completely safe and uncrackable system, unless you have MA's clock and RNG :)
 
Don't get this thread... is it a joke or not? :scratch2:
(And the picture says at least one success, not 0):silly2:
 
In reference to the OP
In that Pharmacy you got going in your inventory. Are any of those pills your Heart medication?
Go Green. I guarantee a more harmonious outcome. amen :cool:
 
quit

dude, again

quit this game

you have a gamble addiction problem, seek help
 
AFAIK MA has always used time as an influence factor. I think they have been using a time-seeded (probably microsecond (10-^6) pRNG since the beginning, and each "system" which requires "randomness" is based on that seed.

This would then be easy to allocate time periods which effectively guarantee a result (explaining waves) by issuing segments of variable portions of time.

It's also a completely safe and uncrackable system, unless you have MA's clock and RNG :)
Cracking Random Number Generators

Random number generators are a key part of web security. They are used all over the place, from session tokens to tokens to sent to an email address to verify its owner made a particular request, to CAPTCHA tokens and so on. In all these applications, if the token can be predicted, then the security mechanism can be broken, and a malicious user will be able to identify themselves as someone who they are not.

There are obvious concerns with publishing instructions explaining how to exploit security vulnerabilities. However, I have some good reasons for doing so:

There is nothing new about the vulnerabilities associated with random number generation, nothing that I'm publishing here is new to hackers either.
Hacking random number generators is actually very easy to do, and hackers know this.
Many developers that I have come across are of the belief that hacking random number generators is a hard to exploit avenue of attack. Even when they know that there are dangers in random number generation, their understanding is often incomplete, leading them to make serious mistakes.
None of the algorithms I supply here can be used as is, they require an attacker to know exactly what algorithm is being used on a system, how to extract numbers out of it, and having then cracked the number generator, how to exploit it. Knowing all this I believe is harder than working out for yourself how to crack the random number generators themselves, so if they couldn't work out what I am saying for themselves, they likely won't be able to use it to hack into a real system.
Hence I believe that there is nothing a hacker will learn from this series that they can't work out for themselves. Meanwhile, many developers live in ignorance, and would never bother to see if their understanding of random number generators is flawed. My hope therefore is to give developers an understanding of just how dangerous their ignorance can be.

What I won't talk about in this series is anything about the maths of random number generators, beyond explaining how the algorithms are implmented. Why a particular algorithm makes a good PRNG is beyond the scope of this series.

Linear Congruential PRNG

The first PRNG we will focus on is the linear congruential PRNG. Rather than talk theoretically, we'll look at a particularly common one, Java's default random number generator, java.util.Random.

The idea behind a linear congruential PRNG is that you store a single number as the internal state. This state is usually called the seed, because the two numbers are usually one in the same thing. In Java's case, this is not quite true, but to keep our explanation simple, we will assume that it is. The seed has a precision, in Java's case, the precision is 48 bits.

The seed changes each time a number is generated, by applying a simple formula. That formula is:

Code:
seed = (seed * multiplier + addend) mod (2 ^ precision)

The key to this being a good random number generator is the choice of multiplier and addend. In Java's case, the multiplier is 25214903917, and the addend is 11. As I said earlier, what makes these two numbers good is beyond the scope of this series. The mod operation is implemented using a bitmask, 48 1's.

java.util.Random never gives out its full 48 bits of state, it gives out at most 32 on each call to nextInt(). Other calls that return more bits, for example, nextLong(), generate multiple 32 bit numbers and combine them together. To convert the 48 bit seed to a 32 bit int, the seed is bitshifted to the right by 16 bits.

Determining the seed from a Linear Congruential PRNG's output
It is not possible, from one int generated by java.util.Random, to determine the seed, because 16 bits were discarded by the bitshift. However, if we obtain a second int from it, we can quite easily guess what those remaining 16 bits were, by brute forcing all possible values, and seeing if the next value from that matches the second value we obtained. 16 bits is only 65536 possible values, and calculating the next int is only a few instructions, so this can be computed in a fraction of a second.

The code in Java looks like this:

Code:
Random random = new Random();
long v1 = random.nextInt();
long v2 = random.nextInt();
for (int i = 0; i < 65536; i++) {
    long seed = v1 * 65536 + i;
    if (((seed * multiplier + addend) & mask) >>> 16) == v2) {
        System.out.println("Seed found: " + seed);
        break;
    }
}
https://jazzy.id.au/2010/09/20/cracking_random_number_generators_part_1.html

There's a good argument against the above. With most software it's relatively easy to obtain RNG output. With a system that serves many users at once it's harder to find a window when you have a direct RNG feed all by yourself. Harder but not impossible.
Also, the fact that computing power keeps multiplying over time has been a known fact for decades and definitely was in 2003. If you are designing an online system that deals with real money you most likely won't design something that's barely adequate at the moment and will be obsolete in a few years. It seems more likely you'd go for something more complex just to be on the safe side.
 
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None of the algorithms I supply here can be used as is, they require an attacker to know exactly what algorithm is being used on a system, how to extract numbers out of it, and having then cracked the number generator, how to exploit it.

Firstly, the quoted is an example of a seed changing seed algorithm. If the seed is time, and not affected by the previous seed:

t1 = 12th August 2015 9:05pm, 35s, 10678us
s1 = 12082015210535010678
t2 = 12th August 2015 9:05pm, 35s, 10679us
s2 = 12082015210535010679

To get consecutive seeds, you would have to have two looting events 1 us apart (on a ^10-6 system). If you were to track looting events locally to the us, you would also have to allow for any time delay to the server, any sync, etc.

Basically, unless you know the server time, it is impossible to know the seed on loot event. Gathering data would also take a huge amount of looting events and therefore ped spent.

Without knowing the seed, or more, without knowing (at least) 2 seeds and their outputs, it would be impossible to crack any algorithm applied. You could guess, but we already know there is multiple sine curves applied. Good luck!

Finally, even knowing the seed and algorithm, you would need to loot (based on server time) on an exact us. Which I think we can all agree is impossible based over a network connection.

Effectively, the system is uncrackable. Literally, the system is unexploitable.
 
This discussion derailed into one about random numbers and other irrelevant topics.

Entropia is advertised as a "micro payments" based game. There is nothing micro about losing 32k USD in 6 months - that is the real issue.

Additionally, there is no practical way to hold Mindark accountable for the money it takes from players via the loot engine. When you are not accountable, you are prone to doing some hanky-panky to satisfy your desires, no matter how honest and well intended you were initially.
 
You know what people will say, its your own fault for keep doing that bp. You had 3 ATH, but you still wont be happy with a 4th.

dont blame him ! hes just a addicted and slave of the machine :rolleyes:
 
i think it's not about being a slave of the machine, but about continuously using it wrong.

please use your brain before you click! and good luck changing your habits...
 


There's a toll free number to call. :s
 
dont blame him ! hes just a addicted and slave of the machine :rolleyes:

Trust you to to stick up up for you virtual lover :tongue2: If he was junkie who mugged a oap for his fix, would you say "It is not his fault his addict"

 
Not sure if this thread is serious or a joke but... I've gone for condition runs on EP's with 60 - 80 clicks without a single success OR near success so this is nothing new. In fact when I hit 162k I had 30+ straight clicks with nothing right before hitting the ATH. See my video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzBo6pDJZzM

A few things I've adopted as rules for crafting...

1) 95% success rate takes into account both successes and near successes.
2) Condition crafting adds 7X to the loot multiplier at max but also divides the success rate by at least that much as well. Meaning you'll only get a near success or success 1 in 10 on average (an average over like 10,000 clicks). This being the case it's impossible to profit on condition crafting without hitting large HoFs to bridge the gap.
3) Skills only help you get to that 95% success rate without the help of BP quality. Once you get to 95% success that's it you can't success any more than a noob that's got 1/1000th your skill and has the BP at 95% success rate. It's like saying "I'm level 100 In Laser Rifle, why doesn't my opallo do more damage than it did at level 10?".
4) You can't go into this expecting the game to give you a HoF or ATH when YOU want it. Identifying trends in the timing when an ATH is most likely is key. If you're not getting a good return then it's probably not a great time to do a large run. Of course, having 3 ATH's I figured you would have already known how to spot these trends ;)

And a new 5th rule I'm adding after seeing this post with your losses:
5) Pay no attention to the loots of others because what looks like an avatar is making HUGE profits with multiple ATH's may barely be a 50% return of what was lost to get that loot in the first place.

GL and HoF.
 
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Entropia is advertised as a "micro payments" based game. There is nothing micro about losing 32k USD in 6 months - that is the real issue.

I would have thought the real issue would be why keep pumping in cash after the first few thousand. No one is forcing anyone to deposit it's down to personal choice, if you do then you should be aware that you're probably waving goodbye to it.

If you're willing to take the risk with those large amounts then you should be willing to accept a complete loss.
 
people hate me I know that much,
game pisses me off, I know that much

picture says it all go figure... this ain the first time... but I decided that
everyone should know some secrets that skills means nothing...

201607312.jpg

Dont really understand why your still doing that when you hit your 184351ped atm. I would of stopped and gone back to normal activity's. I mean that blueprint doesn't drop any high mu limited blueprints so straight away even on qty your loseing ped. I know how it goes on condition crafting and this could last all year like that. But considering how many times you hit hofs and ubers directly as iv lost that amount im sure you know this :)
 
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