Info: A Quick mining calculation

[R4tt3xx]

I wanted to show the community this as I found it a just a teeny bit interesting.

The average hit rate in mining has been +- 27.1% for almost forever. So I was wondering if we could get to the value without really mining.. and I can come pretty close.

The math is really simple, we have 3 claim types (1) Ore, (2) Entmatter and (3) Treasure. Yes I know that treasure is a "recent" addition but it does exist and such is a part of this calculation.

Now the above gives us a native chance of 33% to hit any one of these resources, but the number is too high. The rest of the calculation comes from what you can call over or underlapping. The game has a maximum field size of 8192m per server and due to the fact that our mining probes are circles not squares we can only cover +- 88.47% (Using a radius of 55m) of that area. so 0.8847*33.34 would give us 29.5% chance to hit. So I am about 2% off of the average.

What do you guys think so far ?

( I do realise that the math is not quite right, I will try to clean it up a bit)

 

[RickEngland]

It's a digital world, the search "area" might be squares or cubes.

 

[R4tt3xx]

It's a digital world, the search "area" might be squares or cubes.

I would agree with that ...

PS My math was wrong ..... The formula for an optimal hex packing is (pi()/(2*sqrt(3))) so +- 0.9069 so 90.69% of max.

Therefore in order to achieve 27.1 or 36.41% by actually taking into account the inherent 9.31% miss chance..... I don't know weather to add or multiply here ... Perhaps someone that is good at math can correct me on this..

Be back a bit later .. Work calls

 

[RickEngland]

You're assuming though that you're always betting against 3 types of finds (even if you choose one).

What if we changed your formula to account for 2 types of finds not 3, I would assume your formula would then be;

pi/(2xsqrt2) = 1.110721

Which would imply you have more chance of hitting on a 2 type mining planet than a 3 type mining planet.

Rick

 

[Immortal]

The disproof of your hypothesis is that I can search fro all three resources at once and not be guaranteed a hit. Thank you come again

 

[R4tt3xx]

The disproof of your hypothesis is that I can search fro all three resources at once and not be guaranteed a hit. Thank you come again

Correct should be about 9%

 

[Me Really Never]

Correct should be about 9%

where do you get the minign server size? u counting the mining fields on caly, that show different ressources like on lbml website? because thats only valid for caly. its vastly different on each planet. and if its only valid for caly then the calculations with treasure dont matter because it cant be found on caly...

 

[mastermesh]

Does nrf mean
need real food?
no returns freind?
no rage (on) forum?
new rabbit food?
nude romeo friend?
next return found?
nasty raging friend?

 

[Rocket192]

All I know is that my hit rate will be around 28.1% outdoors and 5.5% indoors. Both of those are losing figures that produce 75% returns without multis.


All I do is drop bombs, fight for multis, and drill up as much markup as possible. It is impossible to beat the hit rate parameters over thousands of drops. Analysis like this could help players minimize volatility, but there will always be kickbacks and bonus multis.

 

[R4tt3xx]

All I know is that my hit rate will be around 28.1% outdoors and 5.5% indoors. Both of those are losing figures that produce 75% returns without multis.


All I do is drop bombs, fight for multis, and drill up as much markup as possible. It is impossible to beat the hit rate parameters over thousands of drops. Analysis like this could help players minimize volatility, but there will always be kickbacks and bonus multis.

That would imply some sort of corrective mechanism that makes sure that players achieve the correct returns both positively and negatively.

 

[Rocket192]

That would imply some sort of corrective mechanism that makes sure that players achieve the correct returns both positively and negatively.

Tell that to the guy who managed a 9.8k alt tower planetside with an f105 and lvl 5 amp... he also managed a 4.3k lyst yesterday the same way. This player lost 10k+ TT in hell over the last 30-60 days or so.

Also, MA must have some tracking mechanism because they posted hunting stats tracking returns for specific players grouped into cycle amounts.

Refuting kickbacks is a losing proposal. Anyone who cycles 100k/month or more and stays consistent will realize there's more than just luck that makes you tower just the right amount to bring you back to 95% tt.

Concluding that there isn't a kickback mechanism would mean there are players who are 130% TT over millions of ped cycled and some who are 60% over millions of ped cycled. MA never said loot was random, just that it was dynamic.

 

[Kerham]

Anyone who cycles 100k/month

That is where I disagree with you, man. 100k/month is for an extremely low % of the miner playerbase. For someone like me, with a job and 3-4hrs free/evening (if you add in family, friends, other activities etc is 1-2 hrs in average), 100k is impossible. For me a run of 10 amps L-3 would occupy 2 evenings and the third would be selling/transporting. That's maybe 20-30k per month, considering also the week-ends, with more activity.

On this tier I disagree with the kickbacks on such long periods. I saw them myself on very short periods (2-3 days), but I suppose higher needs higher cycle.

And somehow these different populations, separated by activity intensity, are irrelevant to each other. Imo.

Now, on the topic. I do believe that the hitrate has something to do with the search area (Which is a flat circle, you will never find on 2nd probe a closer but deeper deposit. At least for now), but way more important than numbers is what you do with the numbers.

Then, there are the possible skewing factors:

- avatar's cycle of luck
- influence of others having mined same area/server/ore/tool/skill level/tt of drop/whatever else
- compensation between various materials to account for resource caps
- wether all these factors are leveled in same manner one against the other in all areas

The depth of possible math is huge and in my opinion unworthy. Is much more important imo to pay attention to, for example, usage of auction or cost of transport vs bankroll.

Other than this, always fun to read your threads, Rattex

 

[R4tt3xx]

Lets say that we have an array of points, in this example a 5x5 array. That is all that exists, if you leave the array you simply appear at it's other edge. (Think hyperbolic cube) By default those points contain loot, but flip over into a sort of charging mode once they are accessed. Once the timer elapses, it simply flips back to it's loot state allowing access to what ever was spent during it's recharge time. In essence you are getting back what you put in after a set amount of time.

If you have a good run and switch all the points to recharging, there won't be any points left to "loot".

Lets take this to it's extreme and say there is 1 point. No matter where you move, it's always under your feet, depending on how much you have looted, you have to wait for it to unlock, it's not a pleasant thought.