FYI: Best Theory EVER

[bettlejus]

Hey look it's Rattexx's annual "i'll post a formula that I think applies to EU that I think no one else could possibly understand (and therefore not refute) and try and look smart"

Loot system is known. I've only posted the algorithms half a bajillion times, but still you create these threads.

Immortal, please make a sticky post with your formulas to

I just want to check the sanity of people from the forum

 

[R4tt3xx]

So wrong and so is the rest of your theory

gratz you learned something in first semester statistics btw

Did I write that..... Eish, must learn to shut my mouth sometimes. I am not a student.

True the easiest would be to treat everything globally instead of individual cells, but that would mean that MA is in control of dishing out loot.

No, I do not see that happening. As proof of concept I offer up this. Create a map of all teleporter locations. Now take the last 3 digits of these locations and plot them onto a smaller map.

If all areas are condensed into a 1km shell, one should be able to repeatably extract resources from these points.

Please note that these nodes are subject to uniform distribution and depend on if resources have been spent in these locations ie someone has to loose a resource for one to be gained.

Players generating resource nodes is not as silly as it sounds, miners mine in straight lines, explains the veins from a couple of versions ago, and other anomalies that cropped up back in gold Project Entropia.

My goal of this post is thus, please spend your resources on the coordinates of teleporters, so that the rest of us and yourself can profit from it. Basically we will know where the highest change of loot is, and if all of us can agree that it is where most of the loot is. Well let normal distribution determine the winner

 

[R4tt3xx]

well.. first i would make a statistical model of the game which simulates 1000s of loots , starting with a base formula running on the stat' model and then tweak the formula until the desired result is achieved 100000 times over , then when thats done you raise a considerable ammount of cash to add as the initial "pool" (and safety measure so even at the first minute of server up for 1st time there is loot to be won and some global spamming from the first kills)
to get it to work regardless of playerbase all u have to do is set restraints on the max loot in any low period for eg 's

IF lootpool < 50000 then maxloot = 25000
same for loss ajustment
IF player loss > (totaldeposit / 2) then increase big loot chance
and for gain ajustments
IF playertotalloot > totaldeposit then nerf player loot

these failsafe's could be anything you dont want to happen , or want to happen extremely rarely
The pool never pays out what isnt there (if it does then MA people are as mad as a hat on a mad person which clearly reads "mad person below!")
If you were worried about the pool running dry by freak occurence (just paranoya), soon you are safe since 50% of looted items dont even drain the pool because people deposit to pay the looter , then u have a mind-gasm as u watch the pool increase expenentionaly and all that real usd sits in your fat account never getting fully payed out .

I would just use central limit theorem, much cleaner.

My idea of the system being player based is not as silly as it sounds. I have proposed a test of this concept and some expected results.

With regards to the results, every one knows about the balancing system ingame. Ye, normal distribution. heck even mining claims are distributed this way. If you apply this to an MMORPG, the person with the most skills gets the highest cut, they have worked the hardest ingame and deserve it.

Pity being the person with the highest skills comes with a great cost of both time and money.

 

[dr3w]

Very small odds for that, but anyway, I have chances:

If only there will be some mining event, and if there will be item naming rights of some mining equipment (finder preferably) as a prize, I will do my best to win it (or will buy it), and will name it after you, R4tt3x, just for damn lulz.

PS: R4tt3x Cracked Finder

 

[R4tt3xx]

The funny thing here, R4tt3xx is , even though you figure the game or part of it that can make you profit steadily ( whitout LA, deds .etc.) they will eventually stop you from doing that

So you're being watched right now, the second after you crack they will change the thing for you or maybe for all and then you find yourself at ground zero starting the loot theory again and again...so in the end you go crazy


Just play the game man and hope for the best!

Its already been nurfed m8. Focusing on a single theory for each contingency is useless, what I need is a catch all that will work under all circumstances, hence the use of statistics.

Remember mining veins, and how did miner's mine, well in straight lines, what a coincidence that miner's found most loot in veins. Each location was a node, just like every mob was one before. Now it's a case of, are you attempting to access a resource node that does not match your % distribution or you have already made what % the game will allow, well then, simply put, it stops you...

A player based idea can only be proven by the players, what I am hoping to see is, when the idea of the tps acting as nodes becomes a fact, more frequent loot drops from those locations but lower average loot, hence a lower variance. The opposite could also be true, the nodes could be set to spill their loot at set times, resulting in higher loot for the lucky sod who hits it.

Time will tell.

 

[R4tt3xx]

Very small odds for that, but anyway, I have chances:

If only there will be some mining event, and if there will be item naming rights of some mining equipment (finder preferably) as a prize, I will do my best to win it (or will buy it), and will name it after you, R4tt3x, just for damn lulz.

PS: R4tt3x Cracked Finder

You have a seemingly "random" system, the best way to analyze it would be c.l.t. as it would generate a normal distribution.

The players control the dynamic-ness of the game, its their story not Mindarks.

 

[R4tt3xx]

R4ttex, you should take a good look at your signature, and think for a bit, how it applies to you.

Let me explain that signature.

Previously miners mined in straight lines, and loot was generated in straight lines. Player generated loot, simple.

We are not seeing that anymore, allow me to explain why.

I move 1 step north and plant a bomb, it is the same move as I move 1 step north and plant a bomb. Totally predictable, why would any system reward someone for just being stubborn. Vary your mining patterns, keep the distance and directions different.

Around your avatar there are only six possible directions of travel, if you include where you are now, .

x0x0x
0x0x0
x0x0x

What is the most common direction, which one of these directions do most avatars move in ? The one that is most common, will contain the LEAST amount of loot.

So yes my signature speaks the truth. Be different and see what happens.

 

[bettlejus]

R4tt3xx, just a word, was your childhood ( ingame and inforum) also like this?

I mean in 6 years you still couldn't found what you're looking for? Maybe it's not here, or maybe it doesn't exists

PS: Nice signature you have there

 

[dr3w]

x0x0x
0x0x0
x0x0x

In russian, cyrillic "x" is reading as "h".

hohoh
ohoho
hohoh

hihi, haha, eh-eheehe-eee, weeee!

 

[R4tt3xx]

In russian, cyrillic "x" is reading as "h".

hohoh
ohoho
hohoh

hihi, haha, eh-eheehe-eee, weeee!

a 1 in 6 chance of getting something is still a dice roll, no matter what symbols are used.

You have a couple of die in front of you, 1d6 is closest 1d12 is further away, 1d18, 1d24.. etc.

Most people would grab the closest and roll it, you move n and again you have the same options as before, the same dice. The areas closest to you will be updated more often, leading to lower loot.

 

[R4tt3xx]

R4tt3xx, just a word, was your childhood ( ingame and inforum) also like this?

I mean in 6 years you still couldn't found what you're looking for? Maybe it's not here, or maybe it doesn't exists

PS: Nice signature you have there

Exactly, it was generated dynamically, and I STILL managed to find it.

 

[mastermesh]

Exactly, it was generated dynamically, and I STILL managed to find it.

OMG, Lootius be praised, you found "it", i.e. the way to get cfd for free by creating tons of theories and posting about them on pcf?... j/k.

 

[R4tt3xx]

OMG, Lootius be praised, you found "it", i.e. the way to get cfd for free by creating tons of theories and posting about them on pcf?... j/k.

No just one, that it is a dynamically, random system of the players own devices.

 

[slasha]

jeez , i hate it when someone is smug while blatantly not getting it . I dont need any "poncy" sounding equasions to understand it , and knowing them isnt helping you at all it seems

 

[Xavier Target]

I love this never ending argument...... EU certainly does elicit gambling behavior from some people when they chase after the big hof and when they don't get it they get mad and tell everyone about how they are getting robbed..... In regards to the OP, I'm sure EU does ramp up payouts at times...This is very similar how some slot machines work when they are way behind on the average payout they will adjust the odds of payout....

They can make the loot formula work any way they want and can change it anytime they want, so if for some reason we guessed the exact formula and posted on this forum, I'm sure the formula would be changed shortly. Here's my guess:

Probabilty of ATH = % of loot pool over average lvl + % of chocolate donuts in this mornings donut box * quality rating of coffee + Likeability of avatars name * current likeability of current temperature outside * (0 if deposits are below quota and 1 if deposits are above quota).

 

[R4tt3xx]

jeez , i hate it when someone is smug while blatantly not getting it . I dont need any "poncy" sounding equasions to understand it , and knowing them isnt helping you at all it seems

I know that over an infinite amount of time, 68.2% of participants will perform the most common move. Therefore as a developer, I would have to speed up the spawn of those 6 nodes around you by 68.2%. Very simple statistics. The average loot of those spawns would also be dropped 68.2%. 68.2% of your decay will result from that move. Mindark would make 68.2% of their revenue from that move.

 

[R4tt3xx]

I love this never ending argument...... EU certainly does elicit gambling behavior from some people when they chase after the big hof and when they don't get it they get mad and tell everyone about how they are getting robbed..... In regards to the OP, I'm sure EU does ramp up payouts at times...This is very similar how some slot machines work when they are way behind on the average payout they will adjust the odds of payout....

They can make the loot formula work any way they want and can change it anytime they want, so if for some reason we guessed the exact formula and posted on this forum, I'm sure the formula would be changed shortly. Here's my guess:

Probabilty of ATH = % of loot pool over average lvl + % of chocolate donuts in this mornings donut box * quality rating of coffee + Likeability of avatars name * current likeability of current temperature outside * (0 if deposits are below quota and 1 if deposits are above quota).

Fantastic, random formula. I will use central limit theorem on that, yes please..

 

[Boardian Chilix]

Let me explain that signature.

Previously miners mined in straight lines, and loot was generated in straight lines. Player generated loot, simple.

We are not seeing that anymore, allow me to explain why.

I move 1 step north and plant a bomb, it is the same move as I move 1 step north and plant a bomb. Totally predictable, why would any system reward someone for just being stubborn. Vary your mining patterns, keep the distance and directions different.

Around your avatar there are only six possible directions of travel, if you include where you are now, .

x0x0x
0x0x0
x0x0x

What is the most common direction, which one of these directions do most avatars move in ? The one that is most common, will contain the LEAST amount of loot.

So yes my signature speaks the truth. Be different and see what happens.

i always mined the same way, carpet bombs in straight lines ( always aligned ), over and over and i always got different result , and an ath.
hell i even mined for very long the same exact coordinates many times a day, how does fit in your crackpot theories? Pls send me by Pm what you smoke looks good
Your signature is wrong and your theories are just plain crap, mining in straight lines is the best way to mine as you can easyli track distances beetween drops
Please do us a favor and mine more before writting crappy theories

 

[R4tt3xx]

i always mined the same way, carpet bombs in straight lines ( always aligned ), over and over and i always got different result , and an ath.
hell i even mined for very long the same exact coordinates many times a day, how does fit in your crackpot theories? Pls send me by Pm what you smoke looks good
Your signature is wrong and your theories are just plain crap, mining in straight lines is the best way to mine as you can easyli track distances beetween drops
Please do us a favor and mine more before writting crappy theories

http://www.math.montana.edu/frankw/ccp/modeling/simple/probability/learn.htm

There is 1000 ped in the pool. Mining the most common way, odds to obtain 1k ped in one shot.

most common = 68.2% 6 options of most common =8.8% chance to hit 1k - 1 standard deviation
least common = 99.9% 42 options = 42% chance to hit 1k. - 4 standard deviations

I will take my 42 different options over your 6 any day of the week as I am 4.7 TIMES more likely to succeed than you.

 

[dr3w]

http://www.math.montana.edu/frankw/ccp/modeling/simple/probability/learn.htm

There is 1000 ped in the pool. Mining the most common way, odds to obtain 1k ped in one shot.

most common = 68.2% 6 options of most common =8.8% chance to hit 1k - 1 standard deviation
least common = 99.9% 42 options = 42% chance to hit 1k. - 4 standard deviations

I will take my 42 different options over your 6 any day of the week as I am 4.7 TIMES more likely to succeed than you.

 

[Boardian Chilix]

http://www.math.montana.edu/frankw/ccp/modeling/simple/probability/learn.htm

There is 1000 ped in the pool. Mining the most common way, odds to obtain 1k ped in one shot.

most common = 68.2% 6 options of most common =8.8% chance to hit 1k - 1 standard deviation
least common = 99.9% 42 options = 42% chance to hit 1k. - 4 standard deviations

I will take my 42 different options over your 6 any day of the week as I am 4.7 TIMES more likely to succeed than you.

Rofl, no words
I guess you are a succesfull miner and i am just crappy miner
An btw i dont have options, i only have 1 as i always mine the same way in the same areas same direction 90% of time
Ohhh and claims are not in ground they are generated at drop so all of your numbers are plain wrong, but dont take my word
I guess you are 4,7 times more sucessfull miner than me

 

[Jennson]

I know that over an infinite amount of time, 68.2% of participants will perform the most common move. Therefore as a developer, I would have to speed up the spawn of those 6 nodes around you by 68.2%. Very simple statistics. The average loot of those spawns would also be dropped 68.2%. 68.2% of your decay will result from that move. Mindark would make 68.2% of their revenue from that move.

As the developer i couldn't care less about the single participant since i have to ensure that the system creates the most revenue for the one who makes the paycheck.

 

[Leafren]

Hi Strakkan!

 

[Konve]

In other words as long as no one is cheating, they should expect returns ranging from 34 to 95% +-. This is accomplished through a measurement of our addiction, levels. Higher level can access a higher % of the total loot per resource node.

Yes I said resource node. Little points where loot accumulates as you pass through them, and I am going to stop right there.

This is not the entire picture of course, as the rest is purely speculation. I know that I want to create as a baseline model, it will just take some time to create the math that does the job.

The 3d sphere is going to be a challange, but I think I have a way to get through it.

I don't exactly understand what you're saying. Do you honestly believe a higher skilled miner will find a higher average TT value from his claims, simply because of his ingame-skill rank? I think that was the case seven or eight years ago, but not today (I recall reading "lyst stone experiments" where higher level people reported more lyst stones in their claims).

And what is this model you're on about? You've got your standard multidimensional coordinates, but then what?

Yes it is a lottery of sorts, but predictable. Heck mining depth follows uniform distribution

How is depth important? I see no evidence of predictability, I'm afraid.

Around your avatar there are only six possible directions of travel, if you include where you are now, .

x0x0x
0x0x0
x0x0x

What is the most common direction, which one of these directions do most avatars move in ? The one that is most common, will contain the LEAST amount of loot.

Actually, there are millions (or more) different possible directions to walk in.

Sure, most probably go north/south or east/west - but why would it mean less loot?

I know that over an infinite amount of time, 68.2% of participants will perform the most common move. Therefore as a developer, I would have to speed up the spawn of those 6 nodes around you by 68.2%. Very simple statistics. The average loot of those spawns would also be dropped 68.2%. 68.2% of your decay will result from that move. Mindark would make 68.2% of their revenue from that move.

Mindark makes 68.2 % of the revenue from the actions of 68.2 % of the participants (over an infinite amount of time)? Well, not exactly rocket science.

See if from Mindark's point of view, they have to come up with a system that delivers pridictable results from a random set of data. Mindark is NOT a casino, please stop treating them as one.

Actually. Ever since I saw Falkaos work I am more convinced than ever that Entropia is INDEED gambling.

The presence of a statistical chance is the equivalence of gambling (lottery).

Personal loot pools is the only thing that sets a stop to chance and by that also gambling. There has yet to be posted any sort of reliable proof of a personal loot pool by anyone.

 

[ZAN ZAN]

I'm sorry, but you are really missing the point.

Whats the point of trying to to tear apart a system that is in very primitive terms - a random number generator for 6 years over and over and over and over and over and over again.

Why can't you just adapt to it?

Let me explain that signature.

Previously miners mined in straight lines, and loot was generated in straight lines. Player generated loot, simple.

We are not seeing that anymore, allow me to explain why.

I move 1 step north and plant a bomb, it is the same move as I move 1 step north and plant a bomb. Totally predictable, why would any system reward someone for just being stubborn. Vary your mining patterns, keep the distance and directions different.

Around your avatar there are only six possible directions of travel, if you include where you are now, .

x0x0x
0x0x0
x0x0x

What is the most common direction, which one of these directions do most avatars move in ? The one that is most common, will contain the LEAST amount of loot.

So yes my signature speaks the truth. Be different and see what happens.

 

[slasha]

Also bear in mind that none of this computation is going on on your machine, so in the time it takes from pressing loot or dropping a probe the result is calculated by the server and the result is sent to the client , so i can tell you that in the time it takes for that message to be computed and sent out not a huge ammount of heavy computation can be done! So basicly forget your nodes and other overly complex ideas , most pc's run at about 1000 cycles per second , if you want the computer to check 1000 diferent things its going to take it approx 1 second to do that (you would experience 1 second of lag as your pc completes the 1000 checks , if you need to access files or memory then that will take even longer. So i can almost say for sure that the loot system is just ,at most , a complex data sheet which changes with every server action any player makes .
Now unless any of your named equasions are called "Loot pool algorythm -MindArc" then u can pretty much stick it up your arse as far as shedding light onto the workings of eu.

 

[K-Max]

EU is not a Casino, to much bargaining with others at different prices from loot that is generated off some algorithmic equation based off that EU automatically gets percent share of total cash put into the game and the rest distributed back to the players based on randomness. So basically you are gambling only with each other NOT EU, if you choose to think of it as gambling for your own money back. You are basically sitting down at EU's house and renting that chair for the while you play against the other players around you. You don't have to hunt, mine or craft there are other ways to make money in game, if that's all you think EU is about is making money. People do it all the time, they are the smart ones and turned the game into a business, others like to play and make it more of a hobby and hobby's cost money usually.

PS: NOWHERE DOES IT SAY YOU HAVE TO DEPOSIT TO PLAY, YOU CHOSE TO!! YOU ALONE ARE TO BLAME FOR ANY LOSES!

 

[Audrey Cheerful]

most pc's run at about 1000 cycles per second

Did anybody catch this gem? That is so cute!

 

[R4tt3xx]

EU is not a Casino, to much bargaining with others at different prices from loot that is generated off some algorithmic equation based off that EU automatically gets percent share of total cash put into the game and the rest distributed back to the players based on randomness. So basically you are gambling only with each other NOT EU, if you choose to think of it as gambling for your own money back. You are basically sitting down at EU's house and renting that chair for the while you play against the other players around you. You don't have to hunt, mine or craft there are other ways to make money in game, if that's all you think EU is about is making money. People do it all the time, they are the smart ones and turned the game into a business, others like to play and make it more of a hobby and hobby's cost money usually.

PS: NOWHERE DOES IT SAY YOU HAVE TO DEPOSIT TO PLAY, YOU CHOSE TO!! YOU ALONE ARE TO BLAME FOR ANY LOSES!

This is a very good point. The entire game is based on PVP in one way shape or form. I can try to sell items at far inflated prices from the mean and they probably will not sell that well.

But where I disagree is with an algorithm. I do not think that such a thing even exists anymore, there is too much randomness going on. The only variable that is being distributed is the actual tt value of loot.

Here is an extremely simple model and fun little guessing game.

You and a couple friends sit around a circular table and select a number from lets say one to one hundred. The number is placed face down as a card in front of each player. The objective is to predict each others card. All players reveal their numbers in a random order. If a newly revealed number matches a previously revealed number, the player that revealed the number last, takes all cards of that number.

Numbers that are not matched at the end of turn, get placed on a discard pile. The next turn is the same as the previous, except that when a pair gets matched, all cards that are in the discard pile, go to the winner.

Thats EU. A game of deception, manipulation and general social networking. The trick with EU is that we are not told what impact out actions are having on the rest of the participants. It is only as chaotic as we perceive it to be

I am not taking any comments on this forum seriously, and same goes for my own comments, please do not take them seriously, if they make sense to you, good. If not belittle and tell me how much of a jerk I am, just no swearing though, doubt the forum admins will allow that.

 

[K-Max]

This is a very good point. The entire game is based on PVP in one way shape or form. I can try to sell items at far inflated prices from the mean and they probably will not sell that well.

But where I disagree is with an algorithm. I do not think that such a thing even exists anymore, there is too much randomness going on. The only variable that is being distributed is the actual tt value of loot.

Here is an extremely simple model and fun little guessing game.

You and a couple friends sit around a circular table and select a number from lets say one to one hundred. The number is placed face down as a card in front of each player. The objective is to predict each others card. All players reveal their numbers in a random order. If a newly revealed number matches a previously revealed number, the player that revealed the number last, takes all cards of that number.

Numbers that are not matched at the end of turn, get placed on a discard pile. The next turn is the same as the previous, except that when a pair gets matched, all cards that are in the discard pile, go to the winner.

Thats EU. A game of deception, manipulation and general social networking. The trick with EU is that we are not told what impact out actions are having on the rest of the participants. It is only as chaotic as we perceive it to be

I am not taking any comments on this forum seriously, and same goes for my own comments, please do not take them seriously, if they make sense to you, good. If not belittle and tell me how much of a jerk I am, just no swearing though, doubt the forum admins will allow that.

Interesting take.

But I still don't think EU makes off with most of the money as an end result as when going to a casino. If you take 100 people sit them in a casino and have them play until they are out of cash by cycling jackpots back in, the casino will eventually get it all, that is a fact. I think if you take 100 players that deposit money into game and have them cycle their winnings you would find EU took prolly 30% of the cash total everyone put in but that 70% left over is continually cycled amongst players. EU never would get any more. They make 30% of deposit value only. Players could play a long time, eventually there would be just one player with the 70% using this model but EU did not get it all. EU is a business and only thing that could be considered gambleing is your actions with other players not with EU, and that really is not gambling those are personal choices, you chose to spend PED hunting, mining crafting knowing you will most likely be giving your ped to another player in the next global or hof you are just hoping and praying it is you. You could choose not to spend PED doing those thing you could be a trader working on markup only there is not risk there just a lot of time waste and boredom, own and LA, eventually you will come out ahead if you manage it right heck most come with native mobs you will always get % of loot from eventually you will come out ahead just how much time do you really want to spend. Fast play = more risk and possible your ped goes to another player slow play most likely will lead to profit in some form or another.

As you said for yourself these are my rambling of how I see things work they could all be wrong. As I am just a player and not part of the EU business.