FYI: Binomial Distribution, Loot, and you.

[mrproper]

Bump for experimental process description at https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/...174726-loot-system-cracked-2.html#post2258882

 

[Koister]

[YOUTUBE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5NPpoM5lIQ&feature=channel[/YOUTUBE]

 

[mrproper]

[YOUTUBE]C5NPpoM5lIQ[/YOUTUBE]

Point being?

That you can use logic to understand lots of numbers and give them a useful meaning?

 

[ermik]

So 1 person losing 20K ped and not looting a single SGA item during the whole period of the event even tho this person hunted 3-10 hours almost everyday during this time just has bad luck?

yes

im one of the unlucky ppl too loosing big.

but the system is not rigged , all avatars are the same.

With that said , im sure there are variables that make things different for each avatar , but that part is dynamic and not regulated by any human hand, that part is what we could referr to as the loot system.

i have some recent findings that i will have to investigate further before i can make some assumptions.

cheers

ermik

 

[HybOj]

simple example is believing for example that because a roulette wheel has come up red ten times its more likely that black will be next.

and what is wrong assuming black will be next, I think the propability of black rises with every red round. I think your example is flaved

To the OP, nicely sayed and hopefully will clear it up to some ppl.

 

[Witte]

and what is wrong assuming black will be next, I think the propability of black rises with every red round. I think your example is flaved

To the OP, nicely sayed and hopefully will clear it up to some ppl.

This illustrated how spot on the example is .

 

[Spinage]

This illustrated how spot on the example is .

Hehe.

Yes, gamblers fallacy definitely applies to that example: the chance of getting red after lots of blacks is the same as it was at the start...

But, it doesn't apply to this thread

 

[Mice]

I can see the logics in this randomness.

What I do not understand and I dont think any math can solve is this.

But how can u explain the same person hitting 6+ ATHs during 7 years of time and another person hitting 0 ATHS during the same time even:

- They play the same amount of time
- They use similar gear
- They Have Similar skills
- They hunting similar mobs

The odds must be so small its impossible, still it happened in more then one case ?

 

[Spinage]

I can see the logics in this randomness.

What I do not understand and I dont think any math can solve is this.

But how can u explain the same person hitting 6+ ATHs during 7 years of time and another person hitting 0 ATHS during the same time even:

- They play the same amount of time
- They use similar gear
- They Have Similar skills
- They hunting similar mobs

The odds must be so small its impossible, still it happened in more then one case ?

Best explanation is on front page. Not saying it's a great explanation, but other than speculation, that's all you can get.

What I'd add is, the 'potential' players to get 7 ATHs is a lot lower than normal, since as generally they will be hunting high mobs that most people can't.. so odds of one person in particular getting multiple ones is higher.

Of course, that gives an even chance to the guy who is not gettin them too. It just makes it more possible that one person will get it over and over again.

This is unlikely, and would definitely raise my eyebrows, if not for the fact that other people do get ATHs.

E.g., it would be suspicous if there were say, a total of 10 players that have the possibility of getting these aths on huge mobs, and 1 player got 7 while 9 players got 0.

However, the reality is, there are (example) 10 players possible to get the aths, 1 of them gets 7, some of them get 2-3, some of them get 1, and some of them get 0.

That is a likely event, however from the perspective of the guy who got 0, looking at the guy who got 7, it's annoying and looks dodgey, even though it's normal.

 

[Coop_]

However, the reality is, there are (example) 10 players possible to get the aths, 1 of them gets 7, some of them get 2-3, some of them get 1, and some of them get 0.

That is a likely event, however from the perspective of the guy who got 0, looking at the guy who got 7, it's annoying and looks dodgey, even though it's normal.

Plus you add the factor that in EU as in many situations, "success breeds success." Once you get the first ATH, you have many extra peds to fund further hunts/crafts/mining trips.

 

[Joat]

I can see the logics in this randomness.

What I do not understand and I dont think any math can solve is this.

But how can u explain the same person hitting 6+ ATHs during 7 years of time and another person hitting 0 ATHS during the same time even:

- They play the same amount of time
- They use similar gear
- They Have Similar skills
- They hunting similar mobs

The odds must be so small its impossible, still it happened in more then one case ?

Some players knows more than others how to "legaly exploit" the system
I guess. Not sure if these you mention do it thou'.

But I did see a crafter for some years ago, who had extreme luck, since
he kept getting 4-digit hofs day after another. He also used skillchips,
in or out, I don't know. Out is my guess thou'...
Some days after all ESIs seemed to be disapeared from loot, a lot of
complaints due to way too few were for sale. The "lucky" player stoped
getting HoFs close to it and I didn't see him get hofs or even a global anymore.
Circumstances? Maybe, but I doubt it...my guess is, he knew where to
end up to be able to get the same bonus again and again and again...

 

[mrproper]

I can see the logics in this randomness.

What I do not understand and I dont think any math can solve is this.

But how can u explain the same person hitting 6+ ATHs during 7 years of time and another person hitting 0 ATHS during the same time even:

- They play the same amount of time
- They use similar gear
- They Have Similar skills
- They hunting similar mobs

The odds must be so small its impossible, still it happened in more then one case ?

Those factors matter very little. They can't play exactly at the same times, and most likely won't shoot the same mobs. Skills definitely don't count in getting ATHs, and of course, once you get an ATH, it's much easier to get the next one by simply spending the one you just got. Which is not an option for the guy that doesn't get one in the first place.

If loot were random, mob-based, item-based, time-based, etc, everyone doing the same actions should get similar results.

However, circumstances in each player's history will create their future.

BTW, I have 0 ATHs If I get one, I promise to use it to get more

 

[AlphaGeek]

Ok, but should I spiral clockwise or counterclockwise when mining?

 

[SunnyS]

Good Post. I agree with most of it.

Just wanted to add -
Big Loots doesn't always mean Big Profits and vice versa.

Accusations doesn't mean they are true, in most cases they are just frustrations that needs to be vented, quite harmless actually. The true form of hatred for MA/FPC or any gaming company is when a lucrative player decides to leave unhappily and goes on a defaming rampage. I am sure most of us at one point of time or the other have vented such frustrations, yet we still love the game and it's harsh to say that any of us feel MA/FPC is unethical in any way ... unless we are totally ignorant of any wrong doing on their part.

There are a few things we can do to ensure the success and sustainability of this game that we love: ( My Thoughts only)

• Cycle your peds as much as you can. Not elaborating , but players should support in-game businesses, traders, crafters etc and keep the peds flowing, not buy something ridiculous or hoard it waiting for that BIG HIT, as this will affect the game more than you know.
• Spread the word. I know for myself, I own a multimedia company and I do friendly video presentations and walkthroughs for some of my good clients and friends every so often.. ( The ones that play with a lot of money in the stock market in particular lol)... knowing that this will make the pedflow/economy stronger if these people join and help me in turn. I already have had 2 conversions and they are already depositing a small fortune for the last few months.

Finally, like I say all the time... play it coz you love it... It's a game!

 

[Menace]

To the OP..... are you saying that I had the same chance at looting Eon SGA and Supremacy SGA as the people that actually looted them?





Oh... by the way.... I can't kill anything bigger than a Daikiba Young.

 

[Starkiller]

To the OP..... are you saying that I had the same chance at looting Eon SGA and Supremacy SGA as the people that actually looted them?





Oh... by the way.... I can't kill anything bigger than a Daikiba Young.

He used a generalised example, if you can't see that it was random, then please move along -.-

Some people just take stuff too literally and dont bother reflecting on what they read.

 

[addz]

I've said it before and I will say it again...

The only way we are ever going to know for sure is to take the guys who wrote the code for the system, tie them to a chair, and beat them with a sack full of doorknobs until they Crack.

hmmm....

anyone got a spare sack I can borrow? .... and some doorknobs?


PS. we should make a new section in EF called wild speculations. Then we can put all these sort of threads in there istead of posting them in the about section as though we knew for sure that these speculations were facts.

 

[Witte]

PS. we should make a new section in EF called wild speculations. Then we can put all these sort of threads in there istead of posting them in the about section as though we knew for sure that these speculations were facts.

The OP doesn't speculate that much, he just shows how observed loot events comply to a non biased statistical system. The wild speculation are the "EU is rigged" posts.

 

[janku15]

well i dont actually belive that all avatars are same, because my avatar i kind of nooby , i play only about 2-3 hrs per day and not every day and i allready have had two ath 33k kreltin 22k belkar, 12 kreltin and lots of hofs below 5k

 

[Congadawg]

I just like to shoot and hope neat things pop up in my little window thingy....

 

[Alien]

Makes a great read, +rep!

 

[Trina Xenophage]

This all is fine and dandy with all the numbers and the logic and I commend you on your thought process. I agree that normal game play is not biased as like many said it would have been shut down long ago. I also agree that the reasoning provided is considerably accurate. Unfortunately you can not say that certain things in game do not happen.

This all does not change the fact that it is a game, it has controls which allow the devs to add remove, edit and delete anything they so desire at any time they deem necessary.

There is no way in hell that one of you in the 800k + regiestered users pile could EVER convince me that someone has not at some and or many times (convieniantly I might add) pressed a button, changed a code to give a nice shiny claim , loot , item above and beyond normal game play to promote this game, reward someone for PR, payback a big spender that threatens to leave and take out their money because they feel taken advantage of at some point.

These guys have and will continue to bend the rules to keep certain people happy, to show off when the media is present, and to pat themselves on the back for some self promotion to make it look as tho this could all be really happening in everyday EU life. Does this happen every day... no.. does it happen often... whos to say it may happen on small scale as well. Rest assured it DOES happen.

You can state what you want, quote what you want, and discuss what you want. I have it all on video to go back anytime and SEE what really happens and changes day to day in this game for a normal player. I have over 2/3 of my avas entire life span documented to KNOW what changed and when. There is no memory of it, there is no coulda beens, there is only this is what it is, was. and always will be.

 

[Spinage]

You can state what you want, quote what you want, and discuss what you want. I have it all on video to go back anytime and SEE what really happens and changes day to day in this game for a normal player. I have over 2/3 of my avas entire life span documented to KNOW what changed and when. There is no memory of it, there is no coulda beens, there is only this is what it is, was. and always will be.

I too have logged my entire ava life and see nothing abnormal. I see terrible 40% runs over large ammount of ped, and a few 150% runs and rarely 200%+.

I sometimes see runs that give me crap all the way. I sometimes see runs that give crap all the way then one big loot that remedies it. I sometimes see several big loots that make a huge profit. I sometimes see consistent normal loot that gives me 90% or so. I sometimes see several minis and no globals, but crap loot overall.

This is totally normal in a random environment. Whether it is totally random is not really relevant, because whether they are, for some reason, controlling things or not, they are controlling them to make it very close to random.

Obviously they put things into the loot system/pile w.e like UNL items or new items in patches. But I sincerely believe that whoever loots it does so on random chance, ie being in the right place at the right time. I do not think MA monitor people's whines and reward them, because I think 1) it undermines the company and encourages whining and bad word of mouth, 2) it requires too much man power, and I do not believe MA is a huge company with so much disposable income to waste on such petty disputes.

Also, I do think MA control loot, to a degree. I think they can switch the distribution so its more likely you will get bigger claims, but mostly crap.. just so those hof list numbers look pretty, but still the same long term overal payback. Throughout any of my logs for any acitivity, as I am 100% positive you will varify with your extensive logs, I see 90-95% TT return. No matter what kind of swings I had.

Also, when I put my runs into a graph format, the wave graph is very irregular. Which to me, says a lot. No man can simulate random that way, only a good RNG. Perhaps you are right about PR occasionally. But, its not really necessary, because if the system is random, the big loots will occur naturally anyway, and generate PR all by themseleves.

If they do need PR at specific times, I suppose they could easily pop a big one in there quickly, but in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't negatively effect anybody.

 

[Xandra]

Hi,

great thread, and one of the best posts about loot distribution I have ever read!

It's a shame that this many ppl don't understand the concept of randomness - instead of working for hours to enforce most complicated loot theories upon the simply randomized reality they'd better spend this time to find a way to survive in such an environment ...

But it's the same as in Roulette - how many time has been spent to find the one unfailing system, how many books have been written about this? And roulette is a quite simple system compared to a beast like EU ...

We can be quite sure that there's a lot of randomized decisions influencing every singe loot calculation:
Loot or yellow line? Tiny, poor, small, average, medium or even large size of loot? What to use from the loot table, and in what composition?

We can, although, be sure that there's quite some constants and not-random variables:
General size of loot is bound to wasted HP (damage done to the mob), there are mob-specific loot-tables, and the global amount of loot is limited, i.e. there's no more loot to acquire but what MA's fiscal situation allows.

It's IMHO very questionable that anybody would implement a participant-bound variable into such a system - this would be a plain invitation for exploiting (by the company's employees), and would never pass any review by the authorities. And it just isn't necessary - it's very simple to give an edge to the experienced long-time participants just with giving the "juicy loot" only to the loot tables of the monsters only these are able to kill.

This one is the reason that makes skill matter in this game:
While 'Joe Smart Newbie' might kill Snables until kingdom comes, and maybe might even get a small profit of it, he will never hit a 5 digit ATH, and he will never loot anything that has an at least remarkable markup.
Check the hunting ATH list - not a single "newbie entry".

'Joe Smart Newbie' might rename to 'Joe Gambler Wannabe', sell car, house, wife & children, buy some skills & good gear and hunt those mobs we find in the ATH list.
A good chance he'd lose a load of money, then come here to whine when a former friend gets a lousy 1.5K HoF on a Combibo Stalker, consisting of nothing but TT fodder.

But as he himself would have bought in into the "skilled league" he'd had a chance now to actually score big. And even a 1.5K HoF on Atrox, Proteron or such might (!) have a chance to contain items that would give a much better return - it could be something with a substantial MU, something you'd never ever loot from small mobs!

Now what about those strange loots flooding the screen whenever there's a TV team at work?
When I started in '05 there was quite some in game video interviews with Neverdie, and others, that I watched with big eyes & mouth open. They whacked huge Atrox, looted crazy stuff, scored huge HoF's, all while answering questions - you might have seen such yourself. There's quite some of those.

How does such work when there's no "personal variable" for loot? Quite simple:

We might agree that there's something like a loot variable for mob type and location, m,aybe even maturity. Any camper knows that sometimes the mobs at location A are "hot", while an hour later it might be the ones at location B. And when Mob C doesn't loot, just switch to mob D, right? These variables might be usually determined randomly, changing in a given time.

But they might be able to be adjusted manually, too, in case of events or such. So there'd be no problem to check what the TV team is capturing, then adjusting the mob & location variables to ensure a "big one" there. Might be a good idea then to know when who is on TV where, then concentrating onto the mobs he/ she/ it attacks? ;-)))


OK, I might be completely wrong with all of this. I just try to recognize what I see, and to find an explanation to it. Since I have a serious developing background I try then to explain it in a way that would make sense. Quite some of the previous loot theories disqualify because it would be impossible to implement such, others disqualify because they would make the game kind of a ponzi scheme, my own one might disqualify because it would make EU more or less a game of chance.

Guess we'll never know for sure.

Have fun!

 

[Cea]

Hi,

great thread, and one of the best posts about loot distribution I have ever read!

[snip]
'Joe Smart Newbie' might rename to 'Joe Gambler Wannabe', sell car, house, wife & children , buy some skills & good gear and hunt those mobs we find in the ATH list.

Great response to this rare post with some sanity among the madness/superstitions/theories being spread on the EF. Realizing it's a joke, but still: kids, don't rush away selling wife and kids! I think it's forbidden in most countries.

 

[Spawn]

Some questions have to be asked about the randomness:

Mining finders: In a total random system depth, range etc has no meaning.
you get x black marbles no matter what.

Mining amps: In a total random system, an amp has no effect
you get x black marbles no matter what

So there is no , no matter what?
Or is there?

 

[Witte]

Some questions have to be asked about the randomness:

Mining finders: In a total random system depth, range etc has no meaning.
you get x black marbles no matter what.

Mining amps: In a total random system, an amp has no effect
you get x black marbles no matter what

So there is no , no matter what?
Or is there?

A system is never totally random, it is always random within certain parameters. If you chance the parameters (for example, use an amp) the behavior will change, but the system is still random.

See for example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution where mu and sigma are parameters.

 

[Cea]

They don't have to reveal the whole system. They could, if they wanted though... I once sent a support case inquiring mostly about the kind of RNG they use and about the loot system fairness. This is what I got back:

2010-02-17 13:37 Entropia Universe Support:

Hi,

As you might understand, we need to keep our business strategies secret since we do not want to lose our competitive advantages. Therefore we cannot reveal any details about the core dynamic of the Entropia Universe, such as how exactly the loot system works. But as all companies in Sweden MindArk PE AB is responsible for following Finansinspektionens rules.

For further information, we advise you to take a closer look at the End User License Agreement (EULA) and Terms of Use (ToU), which is the legal agreement between MindArk and the participant.

Kind regards,
Entropia Universe Support

It would be nice if MA/FPC would give us some general information, but I am not sure that would put the different theories/superstitions to rest either.

Maybe if many people keep asking questions thru the various channels...

To compare with on-line poker etc sites, those have in their highest interest to keep customers informed about the fairness of their system. For instance their RNG are accredited by external agencies so that the loot is verifiably random.

I think MA could at least give us information of what type of RNG they use, and how 'random' it really is.

Those interested in the theory of randomness can read for instance here: http://www.random.org/ (http://www.random.org/randomness/)

Personally I agree with OP, I would never play this game if I believed that it was rigged.

 

[Spawn]

A system is never totally random, it is always random within certain parameters. If you chance the parameters (for example, use an amp) the behavior will change, but the system is still random.

See for example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution where mu and sigma are parameters.

So what if an avatar is a parameter? If a mining amp is also a parameter?

 

[Witte]

So what if an avatar is a parameter? If a mining amp is also a parameter?

Then every avatar would have its own loot behavior