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Character Luck -- is there any credence to the theories, and what are the theories?

Magyar Republic

Magyar Republic

Guardian
Banned
Joined
Jan 3, 2010
Posts
313
Location
Oakland, CA
Society
Laudanum
Avatar Name
Edward Magyar Republic
What prompted this subject: I was in a team of 3 last night, wandering the countryside dropping probes for mining while doing a TP run. I had the same orefinder (103) as one of the other individuals, and the same EN matter miner. We would scatter and drop mines, with the 2 individuals in my party meeting with some regular successes, and me dropping 60 probes and finding nothing.

I'm inclined to just say I mined in poor places, and they did not, however I noticed the individual who had the exact same equipment I had drop mines within spitting distance from where I had just dropped, and come up with mines, where I had come up with nothing.

This character has also had a very large HOF, and has yet to play 14 days. My character, well.... I have never gotten a global alone, and my largest loots seem to come when I hunt with an individual who has obviously had some luck in game already. While hunting with this individual he sometimes complains about reduced globals, and Ive hunted Atrox and Esto's with him for a few hours solid with him and pulled nothing on each of these runs.

Seeing the results yesterday, in plain sight, where spots I was dropping would yield nothing to me, but yield results to another with the same equipment, bothered me a little.

Im normally not one to complain, but I am a person who asks questions when they seem worthy of being asked.

So the question is: What are the prevailing theories on character luck? Does anyone have any substantial evidence one way or the other? What are your stories?

Thanks for your time,
 
finding this out is the first step of understanding. now what you do?
 
Honestly if theres credence to the theories, I made an investment to cover my ass. I'll simply cease depositing now, play for free via sweating to cover hunting repair costs, and wait for that investments time. Then sell, recoup all losses, and move on with life.

Im not stupid. Which of course is why Im asking the question now rather than crossing my fingers and waiting for later! :D
 
Too many variables to list why this could be.

I am the same way with my soc when we hunt. In the team I do well out on my own I cant find a pec in a bank vault.

I have noticed that matching the internet speed setting in the options panel closer or one step lower then actual speeds you have paid for helps.

It could be they have a better system at home, a better modem, or many other things.

Are you running wireless connection to play? If so dont. you are cutting your own throat there. I learned that the hard way.
 
Trina Xenophage said:
Too many variables to list why this could be.

I am the same way with my soc when we hunt. In the team I do well out on my own I cant find a pec in a bank vault.

I have noticed that matching the internet speed setting in the options panel closer or one step lower then actual speeds you have paid for helps.

It could be they have a better system at home, a better modem, or many other things.

Are you running wireless connection to play? If so dont. you are cutting your own throat there. I learned that the hard way.
Click to expand...


My system is more than adequate to run Entropia on High settings with no noticable performance degradation, so Im sure its not that. My ping time in California to the server, well... my best guess is its around 190 to 230 ms, based off the traceroutes ending somewhere around 150 on the East Coast, and previous ping times to servers located in Europe.

My connection is an ADSL 1.5 m/sec download, which is the best I can get in my area, both in terms of quality and reliability. Comcast is my only other option, and I ditched them due to the horrible quality of their connections. I couldnt stand disconnecting after 40 minutes of gameplay.

I do use a wireless NIC to connect to my Netgear Wireless N Gateway device. It's served me very well in the past, and the hops to and from my router are usually less than 4 ms. I've planned on doing a hard wire upgrade to my home, but I live in an old victorian, and cutting through the lathe and plaster walls is something I've wanted to avoid until such a point as I can remodel the entire office room and remove said walls. Why do you suggest this is a problem? Explain please.
 
Magyar Republic said:
I do use a wireless NIC to connect to my Netgear Wireless N Gateway device. It's served me very well in the past, and the hops to and from my router are usually less than 4 ms. I've planned on doing a hard wire upgrade to my home, but I live in an old victorian, and cutting through the lathe and plaster walls is something I've wanted to avoid until such a point as I can remodel the entire office room and remove said walls. Why do you suggest this is a problem? Explain please.
Click to expand...

I was using a wireless system like you, in an old victorian house. This one had the old tin ceilings which were a nightmare for the router. I always had a good staus on the router showing in diagnostics but it was not until I looked at packet loss that the issue showd itself.

Once I finally ran a hardline down a heat duct into the office where the router was and used that I had a MASSIVE improvement on game play and loot returns. Loot still sucked the 3MC but at least I got better claims per bombs ratio.

Now I am in a different place to live and have my own docsys 3.0 cable modem and that seems really stable for game play. Hopefully the new system will also help performance and maybe less lag on the graphics will mean less system lag altogether.
 
Trina Xenophage said:
I was using a wireless system like you, in an old victorian house. This one had the old tin ceilings which were a nightmare for the router. I always had a good staus on the router showing in diagnostics but it was not until I looked at packet loss that the issue showd itself.

Once I finally ran a hardline down a heat duct into the office where the router was and used that I had a MASSIVE improvement on game play and loot returns. Loot still sucked the 3MC but at least I got better claims per bombs ratio.

Now I am in a different place to live and have my own docsys 3.0 cable modem and that seems really stable for game play. Hopefully the new system will also help performance and maybe less lag on the graphics will mean less system lag altogether.
Click to expand...

Ah so your concern was with packet loss. Im not in that particular situation, my packet loss is generally nil (in contrast with Comcast which always produced 30% packet loss immediately upon entering their network!)

I am however going to try setting my download speed from 1.5 to 512 and seeing if that makes a difference. Considering its DSL the connection can vary slightly from the 1.5 MB standard (although not much).
 
Magyar Republic said:
Found alot of answers and theories here. As primarily a sword user, this thread leads me to believe that if loot pools are in existence, and my character is not contributing to them (since I operate only on decay) I'll be lucky to enjoy ever seeing any globals or HOF's on my own.

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/...-look-here-if-ur-loosing-badly-not-whiny.html

Read the thread, not just the first post.
Click to expand...

Rest assured, that's a bunch of hooey. You contribute to the "lootpool" as a melee user. MA says they take their income "from decay" not that they "take all decay as income."

You can get globals/hofs using any weapons. The only thing against blades is that it generally takes longer to kill mobs, so you can't kill as many in a given time, so fewer chances for the ubers.

As to "character luck" FPC has said all avatars are equal, which I say means there is no "luck quotient" attached to your avatar. The guy next to you certainly "got lucky" when you didn't, but that's just how random (or pseudo-random) events work.

Keep your focus on having fun, and let the good loots come to you in their own time.
 
Become Marco's favorite, and then all the ATH will be yours.
 
"I was pulling the lever in sync with my friends but my friend next to me hit the jackpot and I didn't! Why?"
That's the guts of EU, basically.
:laugh:
 
TheGreatest said:
"I was pulling the lever in sync with my friends but my friend next to me hit the jackpot and I didn't! Why?"
Click to expand...

Because he had the lucky machine, of course! You should sell your machine for half-price and get a brand new one, so then maybe you will get the lucky machine this time.

/sarcasm
 
Coop_ said:
As to "character luck" FPC has said all avatars are equal, which I say means there is no "luck quotient" attached to your avatar. The guy next to you certainly "got lucky" when you didn't, but that's just how random (or pseudo-random) events work.

Keep your focus on having fun, and let the good loots come to you in their own time.
Click to expand...

Hey, thats actually one of the first quotes I read... regarding FPC. However given previous MMO experience I tend to take the development teams word with a grain of salt, able to be believed at its most specific levels and no more. I believe the quote was more like "All avatars are created equal" which technically means that your actions ingame afterward are what count.

How to interpret this is what I'm digging at here. Being a heavy initial depositor, Im concerned that large deposits may actually have a chance of working AGAINST me, rather than simply allowing me to experience a greater portion of what the game has to offer.

To put things in perspective --- I'm happy paying for a good product. What would irk me though is if the quality of the product deteriorated the more I put money into it. Drawing an analogy: I had a classic Saab that I loved dearly, but it became a cash sink, so I got rid of it. :( I miss the car and still wish there was some way I could have justified keeping it, but its actual cost exceeded its personal value (not to be confused with market value).

I plan on keeping on having fun, its just a question of at what level. If my deposits are hurting me, then they stop. If theyre simply allowing me to accelerate my development and increase my fun over time, then they'll continue. :)
 
Magyar Republic said:
Drawing an analogy: I had a classic Saab that I loved dearly, but it became a cash sink, so I got rid of it. :( I miss the car and still wish there was some way I could have justified keeping it, but its actual cost exceeded its personal value (not to be confused with market value).

I plan on keeping on having fun, its just a question of at what level. If my deposits are hurting me, then they stop. If theyre simply allowing me to accelerate my development and increase my fun over time, then they'll continue. :)
Click to expand...

Heh, had the same experience with an old BMW--still miss it years later.

I think the only way deposits "could" work against you is if you substitute them for learning about EU as best you can. Well, also, they could raise your expectations, and make you "feel" like you are doing worse than you should be--I've seen that happen many times.

I have a socmate who deposited a decent sum early on to catapult him into lower-mid range then skilled up like mad. He hit several 5-digit loots which allowed him to upgrade equipment and play at a much higher level than me. Others have used their cash, well, lets just say "less effectively" and now complain about how much they lost.

Depending on which of those people you talked to, you'd obviously get a different picture of how deposits might impact loot. And guess which one is more likely to be active on the forum ;)
 
I think Americans who deposit via USD, are getting less loots becouse the dollar is not as strong as it once was. MA opperational costs depend on the strengh of the USD. the dollar isnt as strong they are not making as much money. so they might be useing americans as buffers making drop rates lower for american players so we put more deposits in the game.

I dont think this is such a good idea, if this is going on. but hey this is what happens when you have a company that cant match american standards of investment. hence why americans cant try to buy shares in the company.
 
Coop_ said:
Depending on which of those people you talked to, you'd obviously get a different picture of how deposits might impact loot. And guess which one is more likely to be active on the forum ;)
Click to expand...

From previous experience in games, the most negative individuals tend to be found on boards, as they are looking for some media to vent their frustration and attempt to reclaim lost time/money in some tangible way, through a developer promise or statement.

Lorespade said:
I think Americans who deposit via USD, are getting less loots becouse the dollar is not as strong as it once was. MA opperational costs depend on the strengh of the USD. the dollar isnt as strong they are not making as much money. so they might be useing americans as buffers making drop rates lower for american players so we put more deposits in the game.

I dont think this is such a good idea, if this is going on. but hey this is what happens when you have a company that cant match american standards of investment. hence why americans cant try to buy shares in the company.
Click to expand...

Interesting theory, but I am curious why you think Americans cant buy shares of MA? Is it not publicly offered? I personally own large amounts of shares on the OMEX in another Swedish company. Perhaps I should Google MA stock values and see what the deal is here.
 
No

But that will never stop people from believing what they want to believe. MA has stated both that all avatars are equal, and that deposits or lack thereof play no part in determining loot.

People tend see what they want to see and hear what they want to hear - ignoring the rest. If you take a look at the big picture, you can find cases to fit every theory, which in and of itself makes all of them highly suspect.

Entertaining one's own superstitions can be fun, but start to take them seriously and you will very quickly lose sight of reason.

:beerchug:

Miles
 
I'll repeat what I have said several times.
There IS NO LUCK!
There can be few if any random events.
Why?
To satisfy the government gaming agency.
As Marco said all start as equals; But each has a different bio-rhythm cycle as does all else in the universe - time,mobs,areas,weapons,bombs......
loot is determined by some combination or convergence of these patterns.
At any given time the actual values can be calculated without any random events occurring!!

James
 
Using the abbreviated term 'bio' to describe programming makes your otherwise completely valid statement, laughable.
I shall now proceed to laugh...
:laugh:
 
TheGreatest said:
Using the abbreviated term 'bio' to describe programming makes your otherwise completely valid statement, laughable.
I shall now proceed to laugh...
:laugh:
Click to expand...

If he would have used a proper technical term for the avatar's bio-rhythm, many people wouldn't have understood what he means. Some people just know that and try to explain things for the laymen? ;)
 
TheGreatest said:
Using the abbreviated term 'bio' to describe programming makes your otherwise completely valid statement, laughable.
I shall now proceed to laugh...
:laugh:
Click to expand...

I'm genuinely interested in the technical, or programing explanation. I understand "Bio" as a simulated expression of course but never really thought much about the programing behind it. Can you summarize in a few paragraphs? Hopefully after reading I'll be able to, proceed to understand better... :D
 
It does make one wonder about the whole avatar luck thing when your out hunting and the guy next to you hits a global and two HoF's in 15 mins. time and your loots suck. I'm not saying I believe in it but it makes you wonder some times.


:cowboy:
 
There are lots of theories around, one big loot pool, mob based loot pools, personal loot pools, the good ol' big loot after a depo theory, perception gains, unlucky avatar, it goes on and on. It is human nature to try to draw some sort of a conclusion based on personal experiences.

The facts that have been presented are vague at best -

loots are dynamic

recently in this thread https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/general-discussion/177179-support-reveals-some-incite.html support "assures" a player that his "success will improve sooner or later" leading some to believe there are individual cycles.

the average player will expect to spend $1 - $1.50 per hour to play.

Best advice - play wisely, slowly at first, learn as much as you can, build your skills, take every any advantage you can, have fun. Loots may or may not come your way, don't count on them. This is a game.

An analogy - I could purchase a nice huge sound board, multitrack recorder, build a soundproof studio in the back yard, fill it with equipment and instruments and jump in and try to make a record. Having all the necessary stuff doesn't mean I going to be able to succeed in the first few trys. Better to take it slow, learn how to play, gather experience and so on.....
 
Magyar Republic said:
Found alot of answers and theories here. As primarily a sword user, this thread leads me to believe that if loot pools are in existence, and my character is not contributing to them (since I operate only on decay) I'll be lucky to enjoy ever seeing any globals or HOF's on my own.

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/...-look-here-if-ur-loosing-badly-not-whiny.html

Read the thread, not just the first post.
Click to expand...

No man. Keep the faith, you'll hit something sometime, eventually. Bad times, then good times (more bad than good, it's true), it's all sinusoidal. And a matter of being in the right place at the right time. About mining: Never ever mine with other people by your side! Unless you're sharing the loot, carpet bombing an area cooperatively :D... IMHO. Cause.. well, let's say it's against my religion, lol!
About lucky avatars: i'm not one, but one day, 2 years ago, bam 8k in a feff.. but true enough, i've been going downhill since then, but except for one dreadfull week, i had and still am having fun, after... yup, 5 years and a half :).

BTW, decay (such as the one of your sword) contributes to the "lootpool"... check out amps, both mining and hunting, they also decay pretty good, yet i'm sure they enter the equation when loot is generated (or else what would be the point in using oa109 for example?). And, check out the instant decay of material you put in the crafting machine after you click the button. Bigger risk, bigger reward or bigger loss.

Last night i was hunting evisc again. Loots looked promising, there was a feeling in the air :D (no it wasn't a fart). Anyway, after half an hour, i started to worry.. hmm. no globals yet. then a green dot appears, 2 mobs left. I get a nice 250 pedder loot with L items in it with MU, and the other guy did not global the whole night. I did get 1 50 pedder 1 hour later and stopped a few minutes after. I was lucky to manage to profit that day, i'm sure the other guy lost around 50% or more. The same happened to me 3 days before :D.... So. dynamic :D.
 
Last edited:
jcfuller said:
I'll repeat what I have said several times.
There IS NO LUCK!
There can be few if any random events.
Why?
To satisfy the government gaming agency.
As Marco said all start as equals; But each has a different bio-rhythm cycle as does all else in the universe - time,mobs,areas,weapons,bombs......
loot is determined by some combination or convergence of these patterns.
At any given time the actual values can be calculated without any random events occurring!!

James
Click to expand...

You can say it as often as you like, but it's still faulty logic. There are many games involving real money prizes that are luck-based but do not violate gaming laws.

Besides, even if everything is based off some convergence of bio-rythms (rather than the most simple programing explanation of a random number generated), if that convergence is unknowable or even unknown, then you are just "lucky" or not to do the right thing at the right time.
 
Magyar Republic said:
So the question is: What are the prevailing theories on character luck? Does anyone have any substantial evidence one way or the other? What are your stories?
Click to expand...

I believe it has something to do with spirals and prime numbers. PM R4tt3xx, he'll explain it to you.
 
I find that if i hop in circles on my left foot while playing the banjo....i always hit a hof ;)

Rgds

Ace
 
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