The amount of turnover isn't very relevant to the average return or volatility in return for any individual player. To reach a stable average return it's really the amount of loot instances or creatures killed that matters. As an example, if a player kills 2 Sand Kings spending about 5000 PED to do so the expected loot returned on those 2 kills can vary greatly. If instead killing 200,000 Punies also about 5000 PED the expected loot return is going to be very close to the expected average of 96%+ seen in the 2017 group. A more realistic example of this is perhaps spending 300 PED hunting Proterons vs spending 300 PED hunting small Argonauts where the Argonaut hunt will usually yield similar results and the Proteron hunt results can be all over the place since the loot events are so few.
As mentioned in a previous answer, the most important part for stable returns is the amount of kills or loot events not the amount of turnover. Most new players have very low turnover but hunt mobs like punies and therefore kill a large amount of mobs, like 1000 as you mentioned. This does produce results pretty close to the average for most new players.
Nothing restarts, it's a continuous process. It evens out to 95%+ due to the law of large numbers, not due to some magic or hidden mechanics. The "95%+" is the average value for the whole population though, not your personal "guaranteed", but the more you cycle personally the closer you get to the average.And "chat knowledge" says cycle restarts every 10k or 100k ped ?
Such things just tell you what is a meaningful amount of kills for this particular mob to start seeing better results. Because say 10k ped cycled on exarosaurs (100hp), atrox (1000hp) and warlocks (10000hp) are 3 massively different things with a different outcome.Then things like "you need to cycle 10k mobX eg. atrox" are similiar misunderstandings ?
To which cycle are you referring ?So, looks like there are no cycles. At least nothing like name sugests.
I think he was asking if personal loot pool exists that automatically returns all peds paid out if you wait long enough. That doesn't work, but if you are lucky it could if you get ahead and stop, just like any other casino.... However if you are like most gamblers and gamers if you get ahead in the black you'll be red before long.To which cycle are you referring ?
A series , sequence or a succession
I think a more clear understanding on the expectation for which you are looking , would help the discussion find your answer.
I found the answers given very informative.
The key word is 2017. In the summer of 2020 there were changes and now the system works differently.The underlying knowledge that it is based on loot instances is confirmed by Mindark themselves, as can be seen in the quotes below. As far as an actual number of recommended kills, that comes from players actually testing it and interpreting the numbers.
Some people call what ever MA sets your loot dial at "as cycles", but it's really a test of your on-going acceptance of loss.So, looks like there are no cycles. At least nothing like name sugests.
If you're asking if there exist some preset number of mobs which you ought to kill to see x or y return, doesn't exist such thing.So, looks like there are no cycles.
I put that shortcut to show only what "cycles" I see in game. I had in mind that it's simplified and "1k ped" diminishes..."1k ped ammo, cycle 10 times, return 95%".
... but do not realised it is so much fun - 400% MU to break evenBe it cycle = c
c1 1k 95% 950
c2 950 95% 902,5
c3 902,5 95% 857,4
c4 857,4 95% 814,5
c5 814,5 95% 773,8
c6 773,8 95% 735,1
c7 735,1 95% 698,3
c8 698,3 95% 663,3
c9 663,3 95% 630,1
c10 630,1 95% 598,6
So: end of c10 vs start of c1 you would have actually 59.86% So in order to break even, you'd need along the way 400sih markup to cover losses.
Re-reading this atm. However can't find anything usefull - for me it's just says: you need to loose slower Becouse, as you pointed, after 10 cyclesYou might look around for atomicstorm's thread about bankroll management.
That's a material for big thread ! Or few :>That being said, the numbers given by MindArk in 2017 are not true anymore, they are indeed lower a few good % (in my experience, about 3%), which might be needed for the increased hofs we're seeing.
That's not at all how it works, if your returns are stable 95% you need 105,26% average markup to breakeven regardless of how many times you cycle your peds... but do not realised it is so much fun - 400% MU to break even
RoR is quite literally everything. Live by what is said in that thread and keep shooting.Re-reading this atm. However can't find anything usefull - for me it's just says: you need to loose slower Becouse, as you pointed, after 10 cycles
it is guaranteed to have just 60% of starting amount. [Personal note: exacly this happens to me few time - exactly on cycle no 2...]
Just for reference nothing has been proved or disproved in this thread. Everything in here is just speculation based on observations. No substantiated evidence anywhere to be found in this thread.Maybe it have more sense in insurance. Or maybe RoR is not a whole picture. It for sure can have huge meaning if there are periodical returns
in loot - "just keep shoting and your loses will return !". But existence of such automatic mechanism in game was disproved in this thread.
Bankroll has a lot to do with your original post. Perhaps I'm misinterpreting, or perhaps you are not asking the questions you want answered?Anyway, "bankroll" is big topic for separate thread.
The game would not be playable if what you said was true. Luckily it isn't. That was an average. People will be below or above that line, not ON that line.That being said, the numbers given by MindArk in 2017 are not true anymore, they are indeed lower a few good % (in my experience, about 3%), which might be needed for the increased hofs we're seeing.
In other words: you cycle slow enough to sustain rought parts of loot cycleThe idea is that you lose slowly enough to be able to sustain through the "rough" periods so that you can afford to keep cycling until the numbers are more in your favor.
Look, I stared with examples of what players say and post. One interpretation of that "common knowledge" is that there are magical return cycles -Bankroll has a lot to do with your original post. Perhaps I'm misinterpreting, or perhaps you are not asking the questions you want answered?
Exactly (my bold). On 27 september that year they published a note where they looked at avg return per tiers of turnover. For a period of refference of two weeks (starting with 11th that month) they chose as highest tier of turnover the sum of 50k. They gave an average of 98,6%. My turnover for a period of nearly exactly 1 month is 140k, So, more than their chosen ratio (25k per week). In these conditions, my return is 93,3%. I do understand how averages work, but my return just doesn't move from there. It's not that today I am here and tomorrow I am there, since I started the xls, once I reached about 40k or so total turnover, it hasn't moved anymore above, best case, 94% overall.The game would not be playable if what you said was true. Luckily it isn't. That was an average. People will be below or above that line, not ON that line.
Turnover is very important.
It does never "return", that's at best a misrepresentation and at worst outright a mistification/scam. To use again a cooked-up conceptual example, if over 100k you had 90k return, it doesn't need to pop you up 8k from Santa Clause to bring you to 98%. Is enough to have afterwards hundreds of intervals of 100k with 98% themselves such as initial lost will "melt" in the average. Big hofs are, imo, just a function of limits. Respectively, if we were to use the notion of multiplier (which again I don't believe is a thing), is enough for the system to be calibrated like "minimum multiplier 0,25, maximum multiplier 3000, average population of 90% of multipliers at 99%". And then once every few dozens millions of attempts you'd have lucky Joe hoffing today 10k and tomorrow 15k, but for the entirety of mobs killed ingame divided by the entirety of the cost spent to kill them, the average will still be wherever MA decided it to be (say, 96% or whatever)."just keep shoting and your loses will return !"
Almost. You need to adjust that number for some factors, like:according to wiki cells +decay you shot 25.8 x second max reload = 60 * 1.15 = 69 shot per min 1068 ped per hour
losing 64 ped per hour = 640 x day or 19.000 ped per month? (10 jhours fight per day)
seems really not sustainable paying 2000 USD per month to hunt
do you confirm those numbers?
UL wep at what dps?each BC55 has 7900 shots or you use 4 per day that is 60 ped per day or 1800 ped per month "wasted" compared to a UL wep