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Free fall of himi price, a lesson in economics?

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valygar

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mat valygar thijs
Those of whom regularly use or find himi have noticed that the price is in a free fall, much like the stock exchanges were around the globe untill yesterday. The question is: how does something like this work?

Ofcourse it's a question of supply and demand. But I don't think it's that simple. I think ups and downs of the %'s of rare materials, are comparable to the ups and downs of shares. It seems that as soon as people see the price going down a bit, all they can think of is selling their stock ASAP (meaning they will have to sell for lower then the average % in auction). Result: price will make a free fall.

I am in a tight spot atm. Having quite a collection of himi stones in my storage, I was not a happy man to see the price falling. But instead of selling it all, I decided I'll hold on to it, untill the price has at least stabilized. This might not be a smart move, but I don't want to do what everyone else does at this moment: panic.

Threads that complained about the decrease in price have also not done the % any good (from the miner's perspective that is ;)) and I wonder if these people are unaware that they shoot theirselves in their own feet (although you might argue that it's not clear if this thread will help).

So, I'm trying to convey the message that when a situation like this happens, reacting in a calm way will might be the best option.

Do you agree or disagree? Discuss :)

Valygar
 
Well this is my homecourt

Well...nice thread first of all.

Here is what i think u should do....

Use a bank to get more cash..
Buy more himi and use the free fall to improve your loses...u get less% on your loss.

The bank idea is if u dont have cash.

Just a idea..if u need more input just pm and i will help u with the math on it.
But i belive u know what u doing.
Just as u did u made a hype about it so now ppl open their eyes about it..
 
I think the Himi price drop was caused by an unusual amount of himi globals, I think I saw no less than three Himi finds larger that 100Ped two days ago...
 
somon90 said:
I think the Himi price drop was caused by an unusual amount of himi globals, I think I saw no less than three Himi finds larger that 100Ped two days ago...
Click to expand...

Which brings to the table that an "Entropian" economics lesson is much different than a real world one

It's not like I could speculate finding hundreds of acres of petrol beneath my garden tomorrow
 
Mkdesign said:
Which brings to the table that an "Entropian" economics lesson is much different than a real world one

It's not like I could speculate finding hundreds of acres of petrol beneath my garden tomorrow
Click to expand...

True. But one global of himi doesn't increase the supply so much that the price should go in a free fall. I guestimate that around 1000 ped of himi is found everyday, so 100 ped ain't that big a difference...
 
Elwarth said:
prices of everything in entropia falling btw
Click to expand...

Maybee ppl are gathering peds for someting else(10%).And then rest (50%) other who dont have so much peds have better chance to get their hands on
some iteams.And they sell cheaper stuff to rest (40%) that are really at their start.

its just a esitimate and a poor explanation
Butterfly effect...
 
:laugh:

It's no mystery...

What happened with the Himi "event" has happened at least on two occassions with atau drops.

Just goes to show that the balancing manager is not doing his/her job properly.

:rolleyes:
 
Grrrrr said:
:laugh:

It's no mystery...

What happened with the Himi "event" has happened at least on two occassions with atau drops.

Just goes to show that the balancing manager is not doing his/her job properly.

:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Or maybe they got it all figured out that such events scares off opportunist stockpilers, which could result in many interesting things that, I am sure, Balancing Manager knows more than you about. ;)
 
Hmmm, it's interesting that I was sold a significant sum of himi a few days before the price crashed :( from someone who needed money "quickly".
I sense conspiracy :ahh:.
 
Grrrrr said:
:laugh:

It's no mystery...

What happened with the Himi "event" has happened at least on two occassions with atau drops.

Just goes to show that the balancing manager is not doing his/her job properly.

:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

You are al missing the point i think, remember that EU is dynamic?
 
Heehee - the BASE team can see what is in your storage and they be messing with us.

Dynamic :)
 
After some VU - balancing manager populates himi in a large quantity. Then its all gone and rises back again.

I.
 
It is entirely because of supply and demand, so is the RL stock market btw.

The panic selling (or panic buying, a10x anyone?) is just the market realising there was a shift in the supply or demand.
 
valygar said:
Those of whom regularly use or find himi have noticed that the price is in a free fall, much like the stock exchanges were around the globe untill yesterday. The question is: how does something like this work?

Ofcourse it's a question of supply and demand. But I don't think it's that simple. I think ups and downs of the %'s of rare materials, are comparable to the ups and downs of shares. It seems that as soon as people see the price going down a bit, all they can think of is selling their stock ASAP (meaning they will have to sell for lower then the average % in auction). Result: price will make a free fall.

I am in a tight spot atm. Having quite a collection of himi stones in my storage, I was not a happy man to see the price falling. But instead of selling it all, I decided I'll hold on to it, untill the price has at least stabilized. This might not be a smart move, but I don't want to do what everyone else does at this moment: panic.

Threads that complained about the decrease in price have also not done the % any good (from the miner's perspective that is ;)) and I wonder if these people are unaware that they shoot theirselves in their own feet (although you might argue that it's not clear if this thread will help).

So, I'm trying to convey the message that when a situation like this happens, reacting in a calm way will might be the best option.

Do you agree or disagree? Discuss :)

Valygar
Click to expand...


Sorry to dissapoint you, but it is that simple. After latest mini-patch droprate of himi has been increased MASSIVELY. My soc mate found XII himi a few days ago, which wouldn't be possible under the old system, when himi was capped at VI size. As well as those globals that everyone saw. So it's not about panic or emotions this time, it's about fundamental changes in system, and simple technical reaction of price. So your decicion to hold onto your himi stash might not be very wise :silly2:
 
There are three ways the BASE team wants item to go it seams:

Basic items like tailoring ressources (molisk buttons, animal hide etc.) or basic crafting ressources (older ressources like gold, magerian etc.) go down in %.

Generic components and new introduced ressources (used by MA to limit the amount of produced items like f.x. ATAU, Himi, Medical Compress, Magnetic Accelerator Power Unit etc. etc.) are very scarse and tighly controled by BASE so price fluctuates on a high niveau


Old uber items, held to minimum droprate by BASE, like accidently drops of this items if BASE is not watching closely - ROFL
 
Moonbiter said:
..., which wouldn't be possible under the old system, when himi was capped at VI size.
Click to expand...

How do you know himi was capped at VI size? :confused:
 
Werent the winners of the XFire competition given some Himi? They all sold it maybe that started the drop in price ;)
 
For me, i would have dumped the Himi as the prices are falling, and then use that money to buy the lower priced Himi and wait....
 
J_T said:
How do you know himi was capped at VI size? :confused:
Click to expand...

Because it was confirmed by several pvp4 miners, as well as personal experience. Just do a search on forum and you'll find those threads, don't have time to dig them up. Anyway, the fact is, that under old system XII was impossible, let alone global. (You could do a search on ET or similar tools and see no global for the whole tracking tiume before the few days ago if you don't believe me.)

Edit: Same applied to blood moss btw, don't know if it was changed as well along with himi.

Edit2: after a quick search found one of the threads:

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/...hats-biggest-deposit-himi-you-have-found.html

Seems i overestimated even, and biggest size was V. It has been almost a year since i mined pvp4 myself, seems my memory is failing.
 
Last edited:
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valygar said:
Those of whom regularly use or find himi have noticed that the price is in a free fall, much like the stock exchanges were around the globe untill yesterday. The question is: how does something like this work?

Ofcourse it's a question of supply and demand. But I don't think it's that simple. I think ups and downs of the %'s of rare materials, are comparable to the ups and downs of shares. It seems that as soon as people see the price going down a bit, all they can think of is selling their stock ASAP (meaning they will have to sell for lower then the average % in auction). Result: price will make a free fall.

I am in a tight spot atm. Having quite a collection of himi stones in my storage, I was not a happy man to see the price falling. But instead of selling it all, I decided I'll hold on to it, untill the price has at least stabilized. This might not be a smart move, but I don't want to do what everyone else does at this moment: panic.

Threads that complained about the decrease in price have also not done the % any good (from the miner's perspective that is ;)) and I wonder if these people are unaware that they shoot theirselves in their own feet (although you might argue that it's not clear if this thread will help).

So, I'm trying to convey the message that when a situation like this happens, reacting in a calm way will might be the best option.

Do you agree or disagree? Discuss :)

Valygar
Click to expand...

Not sure we can apply the RL stock market mechanics to the resources in EU. As people pointed out, the % for resources depends almost only on MA. I don't think many people are actually stocking ores until the prices go up, at least not in any significant amounts.

My personal experience tells me that it is not very wise to hold on to something that just dropped significantly in price. It usually takes a very long time before it reaches high % again.
 
As MKdesign alluded to, perhaps the balancing manager was spot on seeing the lack of availability of crafted amps due to ######### peeps like you:wise:
 
Grrrrr said:
:laugh:

It's no mystery...

What happened with the Himi "event" has happened at least on two occassions with atau drops.

Just goes to show that the balancing manager is not doing his/her job properly.

:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

This is how it works:

Oh the price of crafted guns are to high? Ok drop ATAU x 1000%, price drops to nothing on them and the guns become cheap. MA ruins the markup on the things overnight. Then sees the price of the ATAU's has gone to low, and the droprate is set back to 0.001%

Its either a truckload or a dripping tap.
 
Moonbiter said:
Because it was confirmed by several pvp4 miners, as well as personal experience. Just do a search on forum and you'll find those threads, don't have time to dig them up. Anyway, the fact is, that under old system XII was impossible, let alone global. (You could do a search on ET or similar tools and see no global for the whole tracking tiume before the few days ago if you don't believe me.)

Edit: Same applied to blood moss btw, don't know if it was changed as well along with himi.

Edit2: after a quick search found one of the threads:

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/...hats-biggest-deposit-himi-you-have-found.html

Seems i overestimated even, and biggest size was V. It has been almost a year since i mined pvp4 myself, seems my memory is failing.
Click to expand...

Ah and learned something again. :)

thx
 
Well ... maybe the system drops himi as it wants to see a number of crafts on certain blueprints. Due to high markup, the himi stays in storages and those intended craft amounts (ore decay) aren't met. So ... the system drops more himi to compensate. Seems like balance to me.
 
yep..

yes, it all has to do with crafting I think... Look at history of prices on target assessment units... same type of thing... new vu=big changes in supply to meet last vu's demand...
 
Great news.

Great news for PVP4 miners. Even though they get a lot less for their Himi they end up with more peds because they can find an XII or global instead of a V max.

Great news for people that use faps (that would be about 99% of us). Crafted faps use Medical Compress or Himi. If these 2 commodities go down in price then the price of faps will follow.

Great news for crafters. Less peds tied up in ingots and more availability of ingots. Now more crafters will be able to craft faps.

Bad news for the very small amount of people that want to stockpile Himi, in the hope that it will always increase in price over time, regardless of how this will effect the price of faps.


So this is great news for about 99% of the players ingame.
Thanks MA :yay:
 
aardman said:
Great news.

Great news for PVP4 miners. Even though they get a lot less for their Himi they end up with more peds because they can find an XII or global instead of a V max.

Great news for people that use faps (that would be about 99% of us). Crafted faps use Medical Compress or Himi. If these 2 commodities go down in price then the price of faps will follow.

Great news for crafters. Less peds tied up in ingots and more availability of ingots. Now more crafters will be able to craft faps.

Bad news for the very small amount of people that want to stockpile Himi, in the hope that it will always increase in price over time, regardless of how this will effect the price of faps.


So this is great news for about 99% of the players ingame.
Thanks MA :yay:
Click to expand...

i use faps.. i dont use L faps that take himi to make... im a miner.. the himis price is dropping.. this is bad news for me..
 
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