Gambling and econometrics

[gianniszrf]

Found this article http://virtual-economy.org/blog/gambling_and_econometrics_in_t talking about gambling and the economy of Entropia Universe.

This articles is based on this paper Payback of Mining Activities Within Entropia Universe


Enjoy

 

[alh]

Nice to see some real science applied to the loot system

Very interesting, that paper.

A bit silly comment on that first page though.

 

[gianniszrf]

Payback of Mining Activities Within Entropia Universe

I think that every miner have to read this document. Great work about how the loot works.

 

[Jake Rogue]

Very interesting reading... and that's coming from a long term Entropia Universe participant who has published several peer-reviewed articles of his own in a number of academic journals (albeit on completely separate topics as a former Physicist, Defence Analyst and Scientific Consultant to the UK MoD).

The "Journal of Virtual Worlds Research" certainly looks very interesting and now I'm very curious to discover exactly who "Marcus Falk, Inova Q Inc.", "Daniel M. Besemann, Hamline University", and "James M. Bosson, Active Capital Management Ltd." actually are.

Interestingly the authors acknowledge the avatars, "steffel earthquake zermatscher", "Noodles NightOwl O’Shea", and "Eri Ojyou Sawachika" for collecting the data used in the study.

I wonder if MindArk themselves have seen this work yet?

 

[Mr Trayles]

Found this article just a little after it was published... hmmm.

Anyway, the only thought I have on it (that I wish to mention) is that it doesn't take into account the possible effect that skills might have on the avatar's return. It talks about the ability to sell skills gained through the use of mining and it speaks of skill being able to affect how efficiently tools are used. But I guess it dismisses the possibility that skills could increase your returns. Argumentative, I know. But it doesn't even address it.

I would also like to point out that all references for gambling (with the exception of the blogger) do not occur for EU but for a Second game. Thus, the thread title here might be renamed.

 

[Immortal]

For those who don't know, falk is the guy who hunt hoggs once an hour every month and "analyses" that loot is increasing on them.

Oh, and I wholeheartedly point and laugh at this crackpot publication

 

[Oleg]

There's another thread about the original article here:

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/mining/167998-mining-payout.html

I proof-read it before publication, it's good stuff. The analysis and writing was done by Noodles, Falkao and Jimmy B, and the others you already mentioned collected the data.

The comment from this guy on his blog kind of misses the point that the game is more about markup than TT. The article concentrates on an analysis of TT returns but also makes the point that with knowledge and smart play it's possible to get a better return when markup is included.

 

[Droops]

Nice find thanks for posting

 

[davidgr1200]

it doesn't take into account the possible effect that skills might have on the avatar's return

Can anyone let us know roughly what skills these two avatars have? That would be very interesting information.
Personally I think this article is based on too limited data. A larger number of avatras should have been analysed and also their skills should have been taken into consideration. All I learnt from this is that if you are an Expert miner (I assume these two avatars are experts) then you can get a 95% return on your mining if you drop enough bombs/probes.

 

[Noodles]

Can anyone let us know roughly what skills these two avatars have?

Avatar A was between level 20 and 30 surveyor.

Avatar B was around level 10 surveyor and unlocked CGA at the very end of the data collection. Prospecting level was less.

Both avatars used maxed finders (past the SIB period).

 

[Jake Rogue]

A bit silly comment on that first page though.

I have to agree, the comments about "Blackjack" on the virtual-economy.org blog seem particularly inane and warrantless, and are also a blatant misrepresentation of the conclusions of the report.

I wonder whether the blog author has a particular axe to grind or is just completely unfamiliar with how the Entropia Universe economy works.

He's missed the point entirely about the zero-sum nature of the total number of resources within the game (i.e. balancing considerations), the non-randomness of loot generation, relative differences in individual avatar skills and equipment, and the fact that resource value within the game is largely driven and determined by player demand and hence its "Markup" price.

Maybe it's time to leave a few comments on the blog....

 

[Jake Rogue]

OK, I left the following comment on the blog:

Sir,

The comment, "Since Entropia's virtual currency is redeemable for real money, it is essentially gambling. Blackjack seems to be the the closest comparison that comes to my mind.", seems particularly inane and warrantless, and is also a blatant misrepresentation of the conclusions of the report and how the Entropia Universe economy actually works.

I personally wonder whether you have a particular axe to grind or are just completely unfamiliar with Entropia Universe.

You appear to have missed the point entirely about the zero-sum nature of the total number of resources within the game (i.e. balancing considerations), the non-randomness of loot generation, the relative differences in individual avatar in-game skills and equipment, and the fact that resource value within the game is largely driven and determined by player demand and hence its "Markup" price.

Any comparison to the game of Blackjack is highly inane, naive and silly.

Then I received the following message:

"Your comment has been queued for moderation by site administrators and will be published after approval."

Let's see what the response, if any, is...

 

[AtamiKiangola]

MA always tells us that you get a % back of what you put in ... nothing new but nice reading.

I do miss correlation with skills versus "bigger" finds, efficiency of tools and the entropia "dynamics" like times where loot is "hot" for all in an area.

Although the basics are here, it is far more complex I feel.

Atami

PS : No, I am not smart enough to do this myself

 

[Xen]

For those who don't know, falk is the guy who hunt hoggs once an hour every month and "analyses" that loot is increasing on them.

Oh, and I wholeheartedly point and laugh at this crackpot publication

Remember boy and girls, no matter how well you speak/write, you can still be a dunce.

 

[Jake Rogue]

Avatar A was between level 20 and 30 surveyor.

Avatar B was around level 10 surveyor and unlocked CGA at the very end of the data collection. Prospecting level was less.

Both avatars used maxed finders (past the SIB period).

Just noticed your forum avatar Noodles...

All Hail the Flying Spaghetti Monster:

http://richarddawkins.net/article,4561,Why-Evolution-Is-True,Jerry-Coyne-AAI-2009-RDFRS-Josh-Timonen



The truth is out there:

[YOUTUBE]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1m4mATYoig[/YOUTUBE]

 

[saintvio]

paper is decent, basically entropia is a slot machine with 95% payback, I totally agree, and dont have a problem with it. how the 95% is returned is a different story.

the most important part of the whole paper to me was the mention of some players wanting MA to stop handing out 35% of loot in 5% of finds. I agree with this. I would as always prefer better average returns to ATH's, there are big ATH's all the time and the population sux, so it clearly isnt working to gain players, maybe try something else after all these years?


saint

 

[falkao]

For those who don't know, falk is the guy who hunt hoggs once an hour every month and "analyses" that loot is increasing on them.

Oh, and I wholeheartedly point and laugh at this crackpot publication

Well, I'm doing some argos from year to year and some ambus from decade to decade as well. My knowledge is therefore quite limited and for sure not as immense as yours probably, but I'm sure one does not need to sit in dung to be able to smell it.

Remember boy and girls, no matter how well you speak/write, you can still be a dunce.

Well you can find them nearly everywhere atm especially when a dunce.

..

Maybe it's time to leave a few comments on the blog....

Jake's comment on VERN was not very helpfully. Please note that this is a site commenting and linking scientific articles and not a forum were everyone can express himself as he likes.

I guess the comment has its origin in the general perception of EU. It looks like gambling. Therefore maybe Vili mentioned Blackjack.

 

[Kerham]

For those who don't know, falk is the guy who hunt hoggs once an hour every month and "analyses" that loot is increasing on them.

Oh, and I wholeheartedly point and laugh at this crackpot publication

This comment is particularly idiotic, sorry to say it.

I wonder whether the blog author has a particular axe to grind or is just completely unfamiliar with how the Entropia Universe economy works.

I wonder if you are familiar with Blackjack if you disqualify so strongly this parallel.

Considering that the players have only the possibility to do educated guesses using statistical means, in what regards the possibility of prediction the TT outcome, EU is similar to Blackjack. Afterall, this 90% *rule* is a players' statement, nowhere in MA's official communication appears the idea that player should get such return or break even or profit. A rule which can be changed tomorrow, without MA being obligated to announce the players. Out of players' power of decision, but in a limited set of possibilities. Quite similar to "what card might possibly come after queen of hearts and what should I do if dealer has 15".

 

[Witte]

Quite amusing to read a paper about the inner workings of EU. One thing I don't follow is how you come to an estimated 95% payout when you can't say anything about the effect of higher loot classes. They may be rare but because of their size they may have a significant impact. It could even result in a 100% or higher payout, which would comply with claims from MA that they only take decay and recycles all other money. Seems to me the cost/hour from a provider perspective is a bit of a guess in the dark.

 

[lilac]

I have to agree, the comments about "Blackjack" on the virtual-economy.org blog seem particularly inane and warrantless, and are also a blatant misrepresentation of the conclusions of the report.

I wonder whether the blog author has a particular axe to grind or is just completely unfamiliar with how the Entropia Universe economy works.

He's missed the point entirely about the zero-sum nature of the total number of resources within the game (i.e. balancing considerations), the non-randomness of loot generation, relative differences in individual avatar skills and equipment, and the fact that resource value within the game is largely driven and determined by player demand and hence its "Markup" price.

Maybe it's time to leave a few comments on the blog....

Conversely, I think you may be oversimplifying blackjack a bit

those who "play" blackjack professionally know that although the house always wins, there are ways to minimise risk and bet according to the card count so that you can actually put yourself ahead...

essencially, there are a finite amount of possibilities availible in the deck, and if one player draws a card, it's not avalible for the rest....

If anything, it was a generous analogy, at least of tt expendatures vs returns...

I don't think it showed the writer to have had any ill will towards the game...If anything, it assumed that MA had absolutely no control over the loots recieved by an individual player, and that it was all about strategy.

If only EU were so simple that we knew that there were only X number of a certain item to be looted per year...

Really, EU may be more than just gambling... but don't tell me you're not hoping for a huge loot... that's just BS

 

[Immortal]

Wow, I never realised that people actually respected articles in unrefereed journals. Homework:
Distinguish the difference between the words 'article' and 'publication'

This comment is particularly idiotic, sorry to say it.

Your attempts at trolling are getting worse Kerham. To haul yourself out from under the bridge, you're going to have to give some context to this comment fragment. (unless you're more of a Forgotten Realms troll, in which case, swamp)

 

[falkao]

Wow, I never realised that people actually respected articles in unrefereed journals. Homework:
Distinguish the difference between the words 'article' and 'publication'

Don't know to what this is related. If related to our paper then it is wrong as there was a peer review.

 

[PW3CKA]

I will read the paper.. Seems interesting..

But the article is bullshit, but these articles made by someone who played for two days are usualy bullshit

Yeah it can be gambling whatever... But all of these people are missing the fact that you can actualy play the entropia universe for free and be quite succesfull w/o depositing a penny in to the system...

Thats what im usualy missing in these articles, it only seems to me like bad mouthing.. And really everytime i read some article about EU its just BS...

Gonna read that paper and write some comment later

 

[Igorl]

Its only a matter of time when local and US gambling authorities do similar article and put EU in right perspective - the gambling one.

I still cant understand ppl who say EU aint gambling

I.

 

[Kerham]

To haul yourself out from under the bridge, you're going to have to give some context to this comment fragment.

Me? Look into the mirror, you're the one giving it context. Who do you think you are to insult like that an effort which at least have a nice goal if not even a decent scientifical approach?

So, behaving like a moron, attracts the respective labeling.

Enough of a context, your immortal highness? *farts*

 

[falkao]

Quite amusing to read a paper about the inner workings of EU. One thing I don't follow is how you come to an estimated 95% payout when you can't say anything about the effect of higher loot classes. They may be rare but because of their size they may have a significant impact. It could even result in a 100% or higher payout, which would comply with claims from MA that they only take decay and recycles all other money. Seems to me the cost/hour from a provider perspective is a bit of a guess in the dark.

that's correct, however you will notice that we've stated "at least" and hence a lower limit is given. The probability for std. loot above 200 PED is .02% (i.e. 2 per 10,000), so there is not that much left over at least for most of the players.

We didn't address decay as there is no citable official statement about it. There are only some comments in some threads by MA about it. However, as given in tab. 2 cum. mean payout is .495 PED for std. loot and this corresponds quite well to the cost of a probe. Hence one might conclude that directly sustained costs (probes/bombs) are returned by the system but not decay on finder or driller.

 

[Immortal]

Me? Look into the mirror, you're the one giving it context. Who do you think you are to insult like that an effort which at least have a nice goal if not even a decent scientifical approach?

You seem to have ignored my advice to go home and research the difference between the words "publication" and "article". You seem to only be reacting to the fact I criticised something, rather than actually attempt to understand why I am criticising it.

Unless of course, you to are versed in multivariate signal deconvolution and can produce cogent annotation of reliable sources. At least to me, SUM(X/N) doesn't really hold water when breaching the void of "worth the effort to discuss".

 

[Jake Rogue]

Jake's comment on VERN was not very helpfully. Please note that this is a site commenting and linking scientific articles and not a forum were everyone can express himself as he likes.

Excuse me? Are you serious?

Your comment here would seem to suggest a blatant misconception in how the process of science and skeptical rational inquiry actually works.

The "VERN" blog describes its self as a place for "News, research and discussion on virtual goods, currencies and economies globally." The emphasis in bold is my own.

The blog author has commented himself on the various papers and then invites further comment from readers by including an "Add new comment" button.

As I quite rightly and fairly pointed out, his comment on a comparison to Blackjack is an inane one that seems to suggest that he is either completely unfamiliar with how Entropia Universe actually works or that he didn't fully understand the conclusions of the report.

Now, your comment that it is, "not a forum where everyone can express himself as he likes", would seem to imply that you believe only comments which agree with the author's position are welcome. This is a highly counter-productive and unscientific viewpoint to hold.

Progress is made via rational skeptical inquiry and critical thinking, and not by blind adherence to one particular authority. For this reason freedom of speech, thought and expression is vital to the process.

Until I find myself living in communist China or North Korea I'll express my opinions wherever I see fit.

I guess the comment has its origin in the general perception of EU. It looks like gambling. Therefore maybe Vili mentioned Blackjack.

Although, this is completely disingenuous to how scientific critique and the peer review process should work.

 

[PW3CKA]

Its only a matter of time when local and US gambling authorities do similar article and put EU in right perspective - the gambling one.

I still cant understand ppl who say EU aint gambling

I.

It cannot be gamble when its free >)

Thats what i said in my comment. people tends to miss that fact

It will became a gamble when it will requires real money. Entropie dont require real money thus its not a gamble >)

 

[Witte]

It cannot be gamble when its free >)

Thats what i said in my comment. people tends to miss that fact

It will became a gamble when it will requires real money. Entropie dont require real money thus its not a gamble >)

I don't think this is a sufficient condition to disregard EU as gambling. When they add a slot machine inside EU, the game would not change, you still won't require real money to play, but I don't think this additional activity would be accepted by the law.